MGoPodcast 14.20: Ten Minutes For Ref Abuse
1 hour and 31 minutes
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1. Men's Basketball vs Indiana
starts at 1:00
Yay, let's talk about basketball (the apathy is settling in). How bad is the Big Ten? If Michigan makes that basket at the buzzer then they would be sitting alone at second place in the Big Ten. It's a disappointing year but you're not going to do anything with Juwan. Keep Jett around one more year by raising his allowance to the largest allowance ever? Hunter Dickinson has gone from borderline All-American to not even All-Big Ten. Not getting much of anything out of Terrance Williams. Pick and roll defense needs a lot of improvement.
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Men's Basketball vs Nebraska
starts at 30:23
Do you remember more about this game or about the Nebraska football game? Brian wants to just have the same point guard for two years in a row... but he'll take Keisei Tominaga. David talks Brian into pulling tractors with Blake Corum. What were we talking about again? Oh yeah Nebraska sports. Jett Howard got 14 3-pointers off - Nebraska is not good at three point defense.
3. Hot Takes & Hockey vs Michigan State
starts at 44:55
Takes hotter than Jagger Joshua on a hot mic. Seth forgot to mention on his hot take that Mike Hart doesn't lose to Michigan State and that drives them completely insane. Michigan retains The Iron D for the 6th year in a row. It's silly that you could win three of the four games in the series but lose The Battle in the D and lose The Iron D. Michigan gets major penalties and ejections in the first game and then misses out on a major penalty in the second game. Jay Keranen really stepped up this weekend. Michigan nearly has home ice locked down in the Big Ten Tournament.
4. Gimmicky Top Five Things That Are Not Michigan State's Fault
starts at 1:18:27
Michigan State's empty trophy cabinets are not Michigan State's fault, according to Michigan State. Your Editor is thankful for not having to edit in the sponsors this time.
MUSIC:
- "Let's Make a Mistake Tonight"—Tennis
- "U Don't Kno Me"—Yot Klub
- "Medicine"—Mama
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
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- What's with the theme music
They're a little bit responsible for global warming.
February 12th, 2023 at 8:07 PM ^
We're still going with the basketball team is just plain UNLUCKY 24 games in....wow
February 12th, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^
They both suck if you look at the eye test and are second in the Big Ten in efficiency margin at the same time.
Which suggests mostly that the Big Ten is god awful.
February 12th, 2023 at 10:57 PM ^
Kenpom literally has a "luck" ranking (in which we are 299th in the country).
This team has its share of flaws, but it's improbable to have this many one- or two-possession games go against a team. If you could simulate this season 100 times, this current 14-11 record would probably be below the median record.
February 12th, 2023 at 11:11 PM ^
I would agree with that sentiment as well, if they didn’t have 1-2 possession wins vs Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Lipscomb and Minnesota that factor on the other end of the sword.
If they had comfortably won all their cupcake games but lose to high majors we should give this team a pass. Sadly, they have been underwhelming the entire season.
February 13th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
Okay, but they also blew out Maryland 81-46, blew out Pitt 91-60, and won @NW by 17 (a team that just beat #1 Purdue at home). They are an inconsistent, mediocre team. They don't shoot that well, don't defensive rebound well especially without Dickinson in there, and they're mediocre at forcing turnovers. But lots of teams are like that and sometimes the difference between being 14-11 (UM) and 17-8 (USC) - neighbors per KenPom - is that one is 299th in "Luck" and one is 80th. Does Luck explain it all? Probably not. But acting like Michigan's struggles are due to equivalent of a moral failing and willpower of the players and coaches isn't any more descriptive.
February 13th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
Kenpom's "luck" does not mean luck. He has said as much. It's a catchall for what cannot easily be explained by his model.
Let's look at the IU game. Was it unlucky that we didn't score in the last 5 minutes? Just a bunch of coin flips that didn't go our way?
Was Brett Maher just really unlucky when he missed four extra points in one game?
Sports aren't simulations with variance determined by RNGs. Sometimes you make or don't make your own luck.
February 13th, 2023 at 8:23 AM ^
You can actually be unlucky for a whole year. Shockingly sports don't have an expiration on how things can go right or wrong.
Michigan isn't a good team but the difference between them and a number of other bubble teams is they haven't won a lot of their close games while other teams have. Some of that is skill and some of that is someone hitting a 50% shot while you don't.
February 13th, 2023 at 8:35 AM ^
I know this is your whole schtick to keep making excuses for this team, but when you have 5 top 50-ranked recruits on the roster, 12 in the top 150, and your team loses to 9-16 Central Michigan, goes to the wire vs 6-19 Eastern Michigan, overtime with 14-11 Ohio, scrapes by 5th in the ASun Lipscomb and inches past 7-16 Minnesota at home that is not a "unlucky the whole year" team. It is simply not a well-coached one.
February 13th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
Glad to know I've got a schtick. Also, "making excuses" is apparently saying "Michigan isn't a good team" but they'd probably be a fringe tourney team if they hit a couple more shots. College basketball has 68 teams in the tournament every year; lots of them aren't "good" but you still gotta fill out a bracket.
Also, I'm tired of people trotting out HS recruiter rankings as some be-all, end-all analysis of a player. For example, Joey Baker might have been the #38 player in his class in 2018 but in the intervening 5 years he certainly hasn't played like a top-50 player which is why he's seeing about 12 minutes a game on a mediocre basketball team in his 5th year. No shade against him but what people thought he was 5 years ago doesn't really matter now. As for the 12 players in the top 150, here's the 247 ranking for everyone on the roster:
- Llwewellyn - 99th (2018) - hasn't played since November
- Baker - 38th (2019)
- Dickinson - 43 (2020)
- Williams - 101 (2020)
- Jace Howard - 390 (2020)
- Bufkin - 46 (2021)
- Barnes - 117 (2021)
- Tschetter - 144 (2021)
- Reed - 35 (2022)
- Jett Howard - 43 (2022)
- McDaniel - 87 (2022)
- Glenn - 124 (2022)
- Khayat - NA (2022)
If we give Khayat some top-150 ranking that's 11 but, again, the majority of these guys are either freshmen or second-year players. Bufkin has been solid and improving, so has Dug and Reed but they're true freshmen who can't reasonably be expected to carry a team. Jett has exceeded my expectations as a shooter but he's still a freshman defender who makes a lot of bad plays. It's a mediocre team but save me this bullshit about how this is some loaded team on 5* kids.
Also, by this tortured logic Duke has 4 top-50 guys on their roster from just the 2022 class, including 3 in the top 10, and are 8-6 in the ACC. Kentucky has 6 guys in the top-50, including last year's NPOY, and are 7-5 in the SEC. North Carolina started the year #1 and had basically the entire starting lineup from last year's national champion runner-up and sports 11 top 100 guys and they're squarely on the bubble. So yeah, sometimes a lack of continuity, experience, and overall talent can mix with a bit of bad luck. I'm not saying Howard has been a great coach this year and roster construction has been an issue but I'm also willing to cut him a bit more slack, apparently, than the denizens of this blog are after one mediocre year. Of course, this is also the place that desperately wanted to fire John Beilein and Jim Harbaugh at various times.
February 13th, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
I actually agree with most of what you said here, to be honest. But I have two things I do disagree with:
- Last year was mediocre too. We got lucky that we got hot for 3 halves against Colorado State & Tennessee.
- Your point around Kentucky and North Carolina is fair. But they're likely in the tourney at this point. What about Purdue, with 2 freshmen starting guards. Seems to be working out pretty well for them. Youth cannot be the only excuse for this team. Roster construction and lineups have particularly been horrendous.
February 13th, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
Last year was mediocre only compared to expectations; they finished around 27th per KenPom and that sorta tracks with realistic expectations for a team that replaced 3 NBA-ish players (Livers, Franz, and Brown) plus a season PG in Smith with another up-transfer PG and two freshmen in Houstan and Diabate. I do agree it's been a leaner two years than fans hoped but neither Houstan or Diabate played like guys who should have gone to the NBA and had they returned this year my guess is the season looks different. Michigan suffered all the growing pains and none of the benefits. And the less said about Collins leaving the better.
Kentucky and UNC making the tourney does matter, I agree, but UNC was the #1 team in the country and were one of the most experienced teams in the country coming into the year. For them to be hanging out on the bubble is really crazy to me. Yes, Purdue has done well with a young team and sometimes that just happens. It doesn't mean it'll always be the case or that any clear pattern can come from it. And Purdue has had lean years in the past with (relatively) young teams; they went 16-15 in 2020 and 18-10 in 2021 with young-ish teams buoyed by solid-if-unspectacular big men.
I agree roster and lineups have struggled but even there I think Howard tried to address it with bringing in guys like Llewellyn and Shannon, the latter being denied entry due to no fault of Howard. And while in hindsight Collins bouncing around HS should have been a warning sign of his flakiness, 1400 guys transferred last year and 14-20 highly-regarded freshmen were in that group. So sometimes you just get a bad beat.
A lot rides on how next year's roster looks. I don't think Hunter leaves for the NBA at this point, and there's an NIL deal out there that probably keeps him happy. Jett is probably gone but who knows; he's a 1-dimensional player right now and money isn't an issue for him or his family. I'd be surprised if Bufkin leaves for the NBA; he's a good guard but he's still really young (19) and hasn't shown that consistent play you'd need from a 1st-rounder. So get a couple of those guys back and Dug another year under his belt plus Llewellyn as a backup/running mate and who knows?
February 13th, 2023 at 4:28 PM ^
All fair points. The sad thing is, I fear we're going to see a redux next season and again, we get the growing pains but no gains. We'll see.
February 13th, 2023 at 6:50 PM ^
27th in kenpom is pretty mediocre regardless of expectations (and downright terrible compared to expectations). It was the worst Michigan season since the 2015-16 season.
February 13th, 2023 at 9:11 PM ^
Top 30 in KenPom is, objectively, well above “mediocre.” That puts you firmly in Q1 territory. Makes you a top 4 team in the conference.
And while yes, it was our “worst” year since 2015-16 let’s not forget that in the 6 seasons since then, we have finished with 3 Sweet 16s (including the “pretty mediocre” year), an Elite 8, a national title runner up and then of course the canceled tournament. We’ve experienced an incredible amount of success the past few years, and it’s obviously distorted your perspective on what “mediocre” is in college basketball.
February 14th, 2023 at 1:34 AM ^
Huh? Top 4 in the conference? They were 11-9, tied for 8th in the big ten conference last year.
The perspective here isn't all of college basketball. We're a big ten team. We were a pretty mediocre big ten team. Again, tied for 8th in the conference.
Yes, we've had a really amazing run the previous five years, and really the last ten except for a couple hiccups in the middle (14-15 and 15-16 seasons). I'm grateful for all of it.
But we're in the midst of another reversion to the mean / mediocrity. Hopefully, it's similarly short-lived.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:01 PM ^
They were 4th in the conference according to KenPom. I’m not talking about conference standings, which are largely skewed based on who you play and where you play them. Nebraska last year being a prime example. According to the analytics, which you brought up, we were the fourth best team in the conference. That’s not mediocre.
The perspective here isn't all of college basketball. We're a big ten team.
Except the goal is the national title, correct? Where you’re comparing yourself with not only your conference running mates, but the rest of the country. Why did you bring up KenPom rankings if your only concern is Big Ten? Make it make sense.
February 13th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
Ok so what you're saying is Juwan is horrible at scouting and developing HS talent then? Check your math again, if you count Khayat as a top 150 (which Matt D and other analysts said he would've been if he was from the USA) its 12 on the roster. What's the point of recruiting the McDonald's All-Americans if he's barely above .500 with them? Maybe they hit a couple more shots, but they also barely skated by bottom of the barrel MAC schools and last place Minnesota. Funny how you just keep forgetting the nail biters vs horrible teams.
I wonder what Alabama, who starts 3 true FR feel about your "youth" excuse, or how about Purdue? With true FR #198 ranked Braden Smith at PG and true FR #96 ranked Fletcher Loyer at SG, or how about #440 ranked Zach Edey who has completely ascended past Dickinson.
Juwan had 1 great season during COVID and since then is now 33-26. But sure, being a couple missed shots away from back to back 11-seeds with this much talent on the roster should make you feel like the program is right on track. They're just "really unlucky".
February 13th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
Again, do the math. Llewellyn is injured and hasn't played since November. He was expected to be the starting PG and was a plus player at Princeton. And yeah, like I said Khayat is given some top-150 ranking then we're at 11. But it's still not 12 and it's not some star-studded roster. It's a bunch of pretty good guys who are young or overrated older guys.
I didn't "forget" about nailbitters; I noted them. I also noted they blew the doors off some tourney-ish teams. It's called being inconsistent and not getting lucky in close games. You're being as myopic as you claim I'm being, which is fine but don't think you're somehow being more thoughtful because of it.
As for Alabama, they're having a great year and are pretty young. They do have a senior PG and and Jr. SG, which helps quite a bit, but are absolutely getting solid play out of their true freshmen and that's been great for their success. Of course, last year with the same backcourt they were 19-14 (and per KenPom were 28th while UM was 19-15 and 27th) but had a "Luck" metric of 229 while this year they're 31st.
Purdue - good on them. They're a really well-coached team and guys like Edey have turned into all-world players and they've gotten great play from young guys. Michigan ain't Purdue and that sucks but if your barometer for competency is "top-5 team in the country" then be prepared to usually be disappointed.
I get it's annoying to watch teams lose and this team is disappointing but this space was demanding Jim Harbaugh be fired after some mediocre seasons, were demanding Beilein be fired, etc. Maybe Howard really is a mediocre coach and needs to go, and if he doesn't make staff changes this offseason I'd consider his seat warm. But I'm also interested to see how this team looks with some continuity year-to-year, something they've really lacked for long stretches since 2020.
February 13th, 2023 at 6:54 PM ^
for one, five stars in college basketball aren't usually all that good because when they become close to good, they usually leave.
Michigan should be led by two upperclassmen this year but both have gotten significantly worse than they were last year.
If Dickinson and Williams made even incremental improvements over last year, that would have been a nice core around which to put a blossoming sophomore and a potential lottery pick freshman.
Their lack of development has been pretty disappointing.
February 13th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
It's not a good basketball but also not quite as bad as our record shows right now.
February 13th, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
They are unlucky to not be solidly on the bubble right now at 15-10 or 16-9 but no one is saying this is a good team that is just unlucky. It's a mediocre team with a slightly unlucky record.
February 12th, 2023 at 9:45 PM ^
Part of me doesn't want to dwell on the Indiana game for obvious reasons. But when thinking of the big picture, that was horribly depressing. The commentary in the recap thread was focused on Williams, but Michigan had a 5 minute drought where each possession was where you pull out that play that you have been working on all year. The top of this roster looks mediocre, which seems amazing, considering how this talent was viewed before the season started.
February 12th, 2023 at 11:04 PM ^
Since January 1 the following combined +/- of Michigan’s players:
Hunter +46
Jett +44
Kobe +41
Dug +41
Baker +38
Tschetter +12
Khayat +5
Reed +4
Jace -7
TWill -11
Yet somehow the guy at the bottom has been allowed to start and play 25-30 minutes every game. Starting to wonder if Williams knows where Juwan’s bodies are buried.
February 13th, 2023 at 1:37 AM ^
“Yet somehow the guy at the bottom has been allowed to start and play 25-30 minutes every game.”
Looking at the box scores after each game has been a bit mystifying. He’s not a rebounding force, he’s not scoring much, and it doesn’t appear in the defensive stats that he’s a demon on defense.
February 13th, 2023 at 2:03 AM ^
Coaches can be weird. We watched Mark Donnal start an entire season over Moritz Wagner
February 13th, 2023 at 7:40 AM ^
We also watched Adrien Nunez get minutes under two coaches. Basketball coaches are strange.
February 13th, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
Mo also had foul per possession problems into his junior year. Didn’t Beilein make him practice with big mitts on so he couldn’t grab?
February 13th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
He is 18th in the conference in rebounds per game. That’s not bad for a 6’5” forward. But when he only gets 3 rebounds and makes 4 turnovers in a game, there’s no reason to play him.
February 14th, 2023 at 1:42 AM ^
If only Juwan had a crystal ball and knew which games those would be ahead of time.
February 13th, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
Not to defend Williams too much because I do think he needs to come off the bench but he's playing a ton more minutes in part because Reed still has foul issues. On the year Reed has 47 fouls vs. Williams's 45 despite Williams playing 700 minutes and Reed closer to 280. Even since Jan 1 he's got 30 fouls (in 170 minutes) to Williams's 25 (in 340 minutes). So while I'm of the school that benching a guy because you worry about fouls and him actually fouling out are functionally the same (except you lose those minutes he'd actually play to foul out), Reed picking up a ton of fouls even in spot minutes against backups is part of the reason Williams winds up out there. He's not as good as Reed but he's more consistent out there play-to-play.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
Reed is also a turnover machine and is questionable at the FT line. But if they had another backup big, I would start Reed.
February 13th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Yeah, in a better world Williams is a 10-12 minute player off the bench, Reed comes in for spot minutes here and there, and a second-year Houstan or Diabate is playing more at the 4 and being at least competent at it.
February 13th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
"Even since Jan 1 he's got 30 fouls (in 170 minutes)"
So a foul every 5.67 minutes of play time... which means about 28-29 minutes on court to foul out.
He's averaging 13 minutes a game (13 games since Jan.1, 170 minutes).
February 13th, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
Sure, but he's not actually fouled out of a game because he picks up these fouls quickly and basketball coaches, including Howard, are programmed to not actually have their guys foul out.
Like I said elsewhere I think benching a guy because you're afraid he'll foul out and the guy actually fouling out is basically the same but Howard is not unique in not wanting to run a guy out of a game with a whistle.
And I'll also add that Reed hasn't been particularly efficient out there when he has seen the court. Since 1/1, he's averaging 1 TO every 13 minutes (Williams is one per 56 minutes), the aforementioned 1 foul per 6-ish minutes (Williams is 1 per 15.5 minutes), and even rebounding he's "only" 1 rebound per 4 minutes, about the same as Williams. And while Reed has gotten better at hitting FTs he's still about 40% from the line; Williams is around 75%. So you can't really play Reed late in games because he's a foul magnet on both ends.
In a perfect world Reed and Williams would be off-the-bench energy guys and not getting heavy minutes. But if I'm a basketball coach and my goal is to win games now (which until further notice is Howard's goal) then Williams gives you a better shot at that.
February 13th, 2023 at 5:16 PM ^
"Like I said elsewhere I think benching a guy because you're afraid he'll foul out and the guy actually fouling out is basically the same but Howard is not unique in not wanting to run a guy out of a game with a whistle."
It's not the same.Its usually worse. At best it's equal.
Autobench is moronic, no matter how common.
February 13th, 2023 at 5:29 PM ^
It is fascinating to me that women's coaches are way more aggressive with potential foul outs than men's coaches. Newer sport so less calcified conventional wisdom?
February 13th, 2023 at 9:21 PM ^
I agree. Though I do get the argument that sometimes benching a guy for a while might get him to calm down, especially younger guys, and then you can get more useful minutes out of them versus fouling out quickly and somewhat scatter-brained. I agree that auto-benching is pretty dumb for, say, an upperclassmen who may just be banging away inside or pick up a couple quick fouls for dumb, non-repeatable reasons (e.g. an offensive foul or a technical foul). In those circumstances maybe you sit for a minute but you should trust the player to self-correct.
February 13th, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^
Regarding Jett, I looked and since he twisted his ankle and missed Purdue he's shot something like 47 3s and 24 2s. Even though he's hitting 40-ish percent of those 3s that's just not an efficient offense and so if you're wondering why they have these stagnant ends of games that's contributing because he's not getting foul shots, he's not setting up for ORs, etc.
He's not to blame for their struggles lately but he's become more of a perimeter player and this offense can't work best with him in that role.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
So, just a shooter?
February 13th, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
I actually went through the OMELAS exercise at an honors symposium between my junior and senior year of high school back in the early aughts.
I “left” because it was described as a near perfect society and it was maintained because one child suffered alone in a dark room (if my memory serves). Since there was nothing about unending life I couldn’t deal with the idea that there was a chance it could happen to my child in the future.
February 13th, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
I loved the breakdown at the end.
For any Omelas fans who haven't heard it, this Omelas anthem (to the tune of Oklahoma) is well worth a listen.
https://youtu.be/L6C8JJM9U10
February 13th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
I have updated my 2023 MGoBlog music playlists with the songs from this episode - here are the links:
- Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/2023-mgoblog-music/pl.u-11z0ofMkqvL
- Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/2a7Hw0FHtgqw351LwW8wPz?si=8690043244a24050
Go Blue! More hockey and women's basketball coverage please! :)
February 13th, 2023 at 2:45 PM ^
If you haven't yet, check out the HockeyCast that should be posted tomorrow morning!
February 14th, 2023 at 1:46 AM ^
Yeah, thers a FULL hockey podcast.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
I am now fully on board with replacing most of TWill's minutes with a combination of Baker, Jace, and Tschetter. I just don't see the consistency on either end of the floor to justify ample minutes for TWill. Jace gives you energy and defense. Baker gives you a viable offensive threat. Tschetter give you energy, hustle, and at least a pulse offensively.
The straw that broke this camel's back: the late game turnover against IU where he dumped a truly bad pass into a basically triple-teamed Hunter in the post. I know that's where the play was designed to go, but we need better basketball IQ to realize when plan B or C is the better option.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
Jace knows his role. TWill inexplicably turns into a PG a few times a game with disastrous results.
February 13th, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
Jace gives you energy and defense.
Maybe energy, but defense? Not so much. Williams has struggled, but Jace has struggled even more so.
There isn't really an answer at the 4. Every option has serious downsides.
February 14th, 2023 at 1:51 AM ^
Jace is pretty solid defensively, isn't he?
Every option has serious downsides.
Agree with this though. There's no solution here or the coaches would have found it. I think Twill has also been pretty solid defensively (though certainly not great).
Looking at raw +/- is the wrong way to do it. Twill as the starter has to play the majority of minutes and play against the oppositions starters and best players. Baker and Tschetter can come in when the matchups work for them. That's the advantage of being a 6-12 min bench player.
Trust that the coaches aren't just sitting on a clearly better option.
February 13th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
Speaking of Robbie Hummel, fun fact: Keisei Tominaga is on Japan's 3-on-3 Olympic team. . . and they did qualify. Of course, that was the one in Tokyo (2020).
OK, that wasn't really about Robbie Hummel.
February 13th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
Pretty sure every fact about international 3 on 3 games is actually about Robbie Hummel.
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