MGoPodcast 14.12: Hangover Saturday
2 hours and 5 minutes
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1. Offense vs Illinois
starts at 1:00
Turns out Bret Bielema and Brian have something in common. Michigan had a close call but so did the rest of the top 5. Michigan was planning to have Blake Corum throughout this game and with him out in the second half nobody seemed to execute very well, especially the QB run game. JJ seems to have regressed since the Penn State game. Feels like Michigan tried to stick to their game plan with the wrong guys. The holding call on Zinter was a terrible call, the CJ catch at the end of the game wasn't a catch. A lot of officiating strangeness. Is this game that applicable for Ohio State? Their run defense wasn't this aggressive against even Northwestern. A lot of starters were warming up but didn't play, so how much of this game was keeping guys healthy for Ohio State?
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Defense vs Illinois
starts at 41:42
This was the first offensive line that was able to do anything all season to Michigan's defensive tackles. There can only be one Wisconsin and now it's Illinois. Mason Graham came to play in this game. This is a true freshman and Brian can't even. Mike Morris was missed in this game, the pre-season prediction about the defensive end depth being not great may have come true. They're going to have to blitz a lot against Ohio State - force CJ Stroud to make mistakes. Discussing the safety rotation and how it translates to Ohio State.
3. Hot Takes and Game Theory
starts at 1:10:22
Takes hotter than a tie game in the 'Shoe in the 4th quarter. Let's talk about the decision making before the game winning field goal. Does the Lou Groza award winner really need an extra four yards? Field goal kicking discussions, the holding call, and punting. Iowa may actually win the West, in an affront to God.
4. Around the Big Ten With Jamie Mac
starts at 1:34:52
Ohio State has been outgained in three of their last four games. Maryland... Penn State... There are multiple games in which Michigan out-performed Ohio State. SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE? Getting pressure on Stroud is still going to be the biggest issue for Michigan. 2022 Iowa. This game had the lowest over/under ever for an FBS game... and it was still under. MSU outgains Indiana 540 to 288 in a game where Indiana completes two passes... and Indiana wins? MSU only has one turnover. None of the math adds up, this is a vintage SPARTY, NOOO. The teams exchanged block field goals in the first overtime. Now Michigan State will need to beat Penn State to go to a bowl game which seems unlikely. Wisconsin vs Nebraska yielded an "uh" which sums it up nicely. Casey Thompson came back for Nebraska but their ground game was completely shut down. Northwestern Purdue is an ugly affair. Is Northwestern the best poor weather team? Penn State spanks Rutgers, the end.
MUSIC:
- "I Am The Moon"--Tedeschi Trucks Band
- "Someday"-- Julia Jacklin (a Strokes Cover)
- "Oh Boy"-- Cam'ron
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct download link
- What's with the theme music
"Just get an umbrella and a mai tai and see how the blocking develops."
November 21st, 2022 at 7:18 AM ^
Regarding Brian’s comments around the 10 minute mark. Let’s hope the QB run game looks more like it did against Penn state than Illinois.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:00 AM ^
With regard to our final posession when we kicked the winning field goal. There was only one way to handle that sequence which makes any sense at all: On first down from the 22 have JJ take the snap and dive into the middle (with both hands wrappped around the ball) to center it. Then let the clock run down to 10 seconds, spike the ball, and kick the winning field goal.
Throwing passes at that point was absolutely insane. We did not need extra yards and - given the way their defense (and JJ) had been playing - the chances of a sack or interception were much more than minimal.
What more proof do we need than the first down pass that was dangerous; the second down "reception" that dangerously picked up a few meaningless yards; and the DEFLECTED 3rd down pass that could easily have been picked off.
The announcers were almost apoplectic at what Michigan was doing. Why in the world would we take such big chances of throwing away the winning points which were already in our hands???
I find it hard to believe that Brian and Seth (both of whose opinions I deeply respect) could not see this.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
He'd been perfect so far that day, yes, and we were already at a range where his kick felt automatic. And, he ultimately delivered on that sentiment. But it was NOT a gimme. He'd missed from that range once this season, and a perfect record was on the line. It was hella windy. We're used to feeling his kicks as automatic, but they are not. Also, I think the idea was get yards they can, not "four more is enough". That just happened to be what they got.
I get the hindsight over that tipped pass; that was heart-stopping scary, and considering Moody delivered in the end it's easy to think that was insane. After all, you can't help your kicker with a turnover, amirite? But that's missing the forest for the trees. I wish JJ was a little less reckless, and sure, at least the 3rd down play should've been to center the ball. But 2nd down? I am absolutely 100% for the team getting Moody any yards they can, instead of, "OK the offense is done for the day now go win it for us." I think it means something for the kicker when the offense fights to the end to make his job easier before leaning on him to save the day.
November 21st, 2022 at 7:32 AM ^
Why are we comparing this last game to the next one? Do any of us really think the caution and strategy will be the same? Same for OSU and their games. Did it tighten some sphincters, yeah.
I am actually more concerned about Stokes at this point since I have heard nothing about why he had a run to the sideline that was nice and appeared to be slammed down hitting his head on the field in the back and not playing later that I could see. Concussed? If the other two are not ready/90% he at least has shown a burst given a gap. Need some time control to help the D.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
I believe Stokes did return later.
November 21st, 2022 at 4:50 PM ^
Cool, thanks. Didn't see him.
November 21st, 2022 at 7:32 AM ^
From parity to parody.
Back in the day of the Big 2 and Little 8 of the Big Ten, the 2 were so dominant that they were nearly always favored.
Now with more parity, for 2 teams to be 11-0, maybe karma requires that everything else be an inexplicable mess.
November 21st, 2022 at 7:38 AM ^
Seth burying the lede with a guarantee in the outro like Hoffa under a driveway
November 21st, 2022 at 7:53 AM ^
I believe.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:34 AM ^
Dear Seth:
November 21st, 2022 at 8:42 AM ^
The offense segment... It certainly does appear that JJ has regressed a little, but he still has the accuracy he showed earlier. It's there... The problem, as I see it, is that he's now had an entire season of getting 'BALL SECURITY' drilled into his head from Harbaugh. It's the same thing JH has drilled into every QB he's ever had - except for Luck and Kap. I do think JJ will work his way through it as he matures as a QB, but that isn't this season. And it's weird because Harbaugh was kinda reckless as a QB, didn't always protect the ball so well, and flung passes into windows he had no business flinging them into. It feels like a case of 'do as I say, not as I did'!
The defense segment... Turner is starting to worry me a little, the rest of the DBs not so much. I think the back end will be fine and the LB's are almost perfect against Day's offense. Colson's pass coverage might get caught a time or two. Otherwise, no issues, even without a great pass rush. Keep everything in front, stop the run, and make them drive the field = success.
Injuries... I've long thought (the last few weeks) that a lot of the game holdouts have been virus related - whether it's Covid, flu, RSV, whatever... Hold'em out, let'em recover, and get to the finish line. I'm pretty sure everyone will be fine and playing on all cylinders.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:15 AM ^
Regarding the QB I do think people are again ignoring the McCarthy part of the passing game's struggles. Yes he's accurate on shorter throws, but so are most QBs. In conference play his YPA is 6.9; for comparison McNamara's last year was nearly a yarder further at 7.8 and broken Shea Patterson was 8.7. And McCarthy is rarely asked to throw the ball all that far unless they scheme a guy open or he's otherwise got a clear shot to him. He's fully capable of making those throws but so have the past couple of guys. But McCarthy is clearly running into a wall most first-year starters do, where the defenses are faster and they take away the plays he wants so he's scrambling out of clean pockets and making bad reads because his internal clock is sped up. Does Harbaugh preach "don't turn the ball over?" Sure, but every college coach preaches the same thing. He's given McCarthy chances to throw downfield and McCarthy hasn't connected on them, and when he does throw a good ball (like to Anthony on 4th down) they haven't always been caught. But even guys we as a fanbase have collectively decided were something between "limited" and "bad" put up better overall numbers with similar receiving groups.
Turner has been weird; he gives up a pass or two but also plays lights-out on a lot of plays. He has some size limitations that tend to get abused but some of it also feels like bad luck.
Yeah, some of the holdouts do seem to be illness-related. Corum throwing up a couple weeks ago was the same game Edwards stopped playing in. Feels like they're resting guys who are dinged and trying to get them healthy for Saturday. We'll see if it all comes together.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
I'm not sure I actually believe this, but as the second half was playing out on Saturday I started to wonder if Harbaugh would have given McNamara a shot if he was healthy. It just all looked so out of sorts.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
Oh, I think if McNamara had been healthy he'd have played in the past couple of games. McCarthy hadn't completed 50% of his passes the past 2 weeks and in this game he was struggling with reads as well as throws downfield. That's been one of the weird things about this season; Harbaugh knows there is a massive drop-off from McCarthy to Warren (the presumed backup) and so he's been a bit cagey and protective of McCarthy and his confidence. Last year Cade got "pulled" for spurts when he struggled in games far less than McCarthy has.
Again, this isn't designed to knock McCarthy as being bad, only human and going through normal first-year struggles. But because there hasn't been that option we've seen him sort of work through more stuff on the field and the coaches having to adapt the gameplan to not put as much stress on him.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
I think we will have to go with Will Johnson primarily covering Harrison, to try to match his size and strength. I have faith in our freshman against theirs. I'm afraid DJ would get smoked deep repeatedly and consistently out jumped by Harrison.
November 21st, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
Surely you jest
you don’t put a freshman on probably the game best wide receiver because of his measurables.
At this juncture, Harrison would absolutely abuse him with a whole bag of tricks and moves.
I will take our starting secondary and double Harrison situationally.
November 21st, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
I don't think we can go man coverage all game, though. We saw what happens when we do that.
So OSU is almost certainly going to move Harrison around to get a mismatch. We'll probably have to counter with Paige getting over the top when it's Turner or Green.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
MSU might get into a bowl game at 5-7 because of their APR score which I think would be even funnier. There are only 74 bowl eligible teams today for 82 bowl game spots which leaves 8 remaining slots to be filled. There are still about a dozen 5-6 teams like MSU that have a chance in the final week of the season to become bowl eligible with a win. The APR score would be used if enough teams don't become bowl eligible.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
If we're being honest, Sparty already got their bowl win, which was Blake Corum getting injured.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
FYI re the Gash 4th down play, Harbaugh said that they had only put that play in that previous week (it hadn't been something they'd practiced a lot).
November 21st, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
Brian, stop interrupting. Let these guys make their points then offer yours.
Re: pass plays practiced Communist Football above me points out they just put the play in, - Harbaugh said in the post game to Jansen that Gash maybe had one rep all week on catching the pass coming into this game.
my buddy at the game with me was an old Bo era QB. He was not “next man up” he was calling for the O to scheme more plays to Loveland all 2nd half. So not all Bo QBs are simply “next man up” without any further thought. If that’s even what Harbaugh was thinking.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
Came for the Mason Graham hype and was not disappointed. He's going to be terrifying after a full year in the conditioning program. Can't say enough about how well coached and prepared he is as a true freshman. Interior D line depth looks very promising. Illinois Interior d line looked strong and athletic as well. Bielema has done an excellent job getting Illinois line play where it needs to be to sustain long term success. Pretty impressive in a short period of time.
November 21st, 2022 at 3:09 PM ^
How did Brian not think that was a fumble by Corum?
November 21st, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
The ground can’t cause a fumble. It could be argued that he was losing control of the ball as he was falling, but I didn’t see clear separation between the ball and his hand until the force of the ground brought matters to a head. At the very least, it’s disputable. The only conversation should have been, did the ground cause the fumble, in which case, the call is confirmed, or is it possible he was losing control prior to contact with the ground, but we can’t say for sure, so the call stands.
What is more likely from a physics standpoint? That a hit to the knee dislodged a ball in the hand, or that the ball hitting the ground dislodged the ball from the hand?
I will grant that it appears Corum is turning his wrist to break his fall. He is also bringing his other hand to the ball to maintain control. And then, BAM, ball/hand hits ground and fumble occurs.
The ref who made the original call had the best view of the play and saw it in 3 dimensions in real time. Everyone else is zaprudering the film in slow motion and 2 dimensions. If I was him, I would be pissed off at the replay official.
That was textbook, “the ground can’t cause a fumble” (notice how the ball springs off the turf after contact).
November 21st, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^
He clearly was losing the ball before he was down.
November 21st, 2022 at 5:46 PM ^
Is losing the same as lost? When does a fumble occur, when the ball is clearly out or when the player begins to lose control? The rule book says it’s when possession is lost (not beginning the process of being lost). Does that mean completely lost, half lost, 99% in control? The fact that semantics are involved provides enough doubt that “clear and irrefutable” evidence does not exist.
November 21st, 2022 at 4:29 PM ^
Did I watch a different version of last year’s OSU game? McNamara definitely did not have a “really great” game against OSU last year. 13 completions for 159 yards. Threw a terrible INT in the red zone when Michigan could have taken an early two score lead. I mean, during “winning time” Michigan had McNamara throw the ball 4 times in the second half! They literally took the ball out of his hands down the stretch. Yes he made two very big throws, one to CJ and one to Sainristil, but McCarthy came in and had one big throw of his own that day to Wilson. McNamara was as pedestrian in the OSU game as he had been for a majority of that season.
November 21st, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
If you never treat a field goal longer than ~23 yards as a certainty, you'll be better off in the long run. Both #CollegeKickers and the fact that the D will run their best block play mean that playing conservative is more likely to bite you on the ass. Always try to score the TD, even with Moody - he's missed from 34 this year, remember.
That being said, you don't want to run a dangerous play, which is why you always see the fades and sideline passes busted out. They're unlikely to be picked and can draw a flag even if they don't work. Michigan's specific calls seemed OK - the first throw landed five yards deep in the end zone, and when CJ caught the next one there were 20 seconds on the clock so plenty of time to spike it (and in fact M was about to snap it when the officials called timeout for the review). The final pass looked dangerous because of the deflection but was probably fine - another fade/back-shoulder to a WR on the sideline.
November 21st, 2022 at 5:17 PM ^
Sorry but this was the worst mgopodcast I've heard. The passing game is broken. I don't care how close this was or that to being a good play, it's broken. The WRS were highly overrated coming into this season and JJ is struggling. It's ok to admit that.
November 21st, 2022 at 7:25 PM ^
Dave's never watched King of the Hill? Missing out.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:03 PM ^
It is not MSU to say that it’s OK to sacrifice the Illinois game to beat OSU, because the goal is not perfection — the goal is to win the B1G.
Would you rather have:
- a 90% chance to beat Illinois and a 35% chance to beat OSU, or
- a 50% chance to beat Illinois and a 36% chance to beat OSU.
There is only one correct answer.
November 22nd, 2022 at 6:15 AM ^
A 100% chance we beat Illinois and a 50% chance of beating the Bucks. There, fixed it for you.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:11 PM ^
The clock did run, and it was correct. Whether or not the clock runs depends upon the result of the disallowed play. Because it was a run, tackled inbounds, the clock did not stop.
However, the play clock is set to 25, not 40, in that situation. So Michigan kept their last time out to use it after the second third-down stop.
November 22nd, 2022 at 5:55 AM ^
The intellect and insights of the partisan fans are scintillating.
November 22nd, 2022 at 7:37 AM ^
JJ & receivers left a lot of yards on the field Sat. For example, JJ’s laser throw to wide open Loveland late game. And doesn’t punt pass it to wide open Loveland when L’s defender leaves him on JJ’s rollout to sideline. JJ’s failure to see other open receivers in space.
JJ has some room for growth in finding-seeing the open target on the field.
Andrel’s failure to snatch ball thrown to his hands on goal line. Other dropped balls.
Then again the best possible way to win - road grader the Ohio front seven with our front line. Get that running game going full smash mouth.
Prediction - Michigan 41 Ohio 27
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