3/12/2022 – Michigan 2, Notre Dame 1 – 28-9-1 (16-0-5-3 B1G) 

Hockey is a sport where the flow of the game hinges on energy level. Brian called basketball "a game of runs" in a column last year, and I don't think hockey is dissimilar. The only twist is that because hockey is such a low scoring sport, the best way you can tell who is in the midst of a "run" is through watching the game. That, or tracking shot attempts on a minute by minute basis. One team will start racking up the chances, then they commit a penalty, and suddenly the other team gets a power play, and they also get the opportunity to go on a run after it ends, even if they don't score on it.

Those runs are driven by energy level, when one team's skaters just have a little more jump in their step than those on the opposing team. They start winning more puck battles, look more tenacious on the walls, and seem a bit faster on the rush. When the other team is strangling your team, it's up to your skaters to pick up the energy level to try and match them. I've been writing about hockey strategy on this site for over a year now, and have studied it for far longer, but one thing I've learned is this: you can study the strategic and systematic component to the sport all you want, but the X's and O's only matter so much if your energy level as a team isn't matching your opponent's. That's why if you ever watch clips of hockey coaches mic'd up behind the bench during a game, they rarely are saying "you know what guys, we need to adjust our neutral zone forecheck to have F1 go a little lower towards the goal line" with a whiteboard out. Instead they're barking things like "we're dragging now! They're kicking our ass! Wake the fuck up and COMPETE." Energy level, baby. 

Michigan rose their energy level on Saturday night. They came out guns blazing in the Friday game against ND back in late February, but that game saw ND quickly tie it and then things went sideways. In the second game of that series, Michigan's energy level was middling as they were committed to playing a tight, mistake-free game. That worked okay for awhile, until they made a mistake in the second period. Neither of those formulas were the right one to crack the Irish code, and so Saturday they came up with a new plan: just outwork Notre Dame for nearly the entire 60 minutes. Right out of the gate, Michigan was competing at a higher level than they had at any point previously in the season against the Irish.

[James Coller]

The Wolverines were winning nearly every puck battle in their own zone throughout the entire first 25 minutes of the game. They disrupted Notre Dame's flow through the neutral zone, won the battles when the dump ins came, and were able to force play in the Notre Dame half of the ice. They seemed much more prepared for this sort of game than the last time around, knowing that they had to shoot more often, even if many were going to be blocked by Notre Dame's defensive positioning. Michigan was willing to do so, because they had the jump in their step to win a good amount of the ensuing puck retrieval battles. Energy level. 

The result was a 1st period that saw Michigan dominate the shot attempts tally. Notre Dame got one good look on net, and Portillo made the save. Otherwise, it was all Michigan. They did the same thing early in the second, looking faster and more determined than their opposition, like they wanted it more. The Wolverines finally got the goal to go up 1-0 off a brilliant rush chance finished by Matty Beniers and Brendan Brisson. But that's when the energy level shifted, as it often does. Notre Dame picked their level up, and started battling. They got some generous help from the Puck Luck Gods and were able to cash in a chance off a long cycle possession that was extended by Michigan's clearing effort going off the referee and staying in the zone. 

But Michigan came right back. Notre Dame had found a way to match the Wolverines' energy level, and Michigan responded by finding a way to want the victory more. Their play and compete level found a new notch, and pummeled Notre Dame in the third period. Shot attempts were as lopsided as the first period, Michigan got the go-ahead goal, and then the Irish got nothing the entire rest of the way. Needing to put away a game, the Wolverines continued to skate circles around Notre Dame and suffocated the Irish offense until there was no time left. Shot attempts in the third period were something like 20-4 in favor of Michigan, and for the game they were 84-37 at even strength. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More narrative, HockeyBullets, and PWR]

[James Coller]

We've been clamoring for that sort of performance from Michigan all year long. The kind of dominant, step on the opponent's throat effort where Michigan isn't just more talented than the opposition, but where they are also as well coached, and more crucially, competing as hard as the opponent. The Wolverines have often gotten by this season on the backs of their talent alone, but every so often they decide to out-compete the opponent too. When a team this talented comes out with the energy level they had on Saturday night, they can blast even a very good team (like Notre Dame) to smithereens. I know the final score was only 2-1, but make no mistake, Michigan dominated this game. Only ND's meticulous defensive fundamentals and the solid play of goaltender Matt Galajda kept it so close. 

Maintaining a fiery energy level throughout an entire 40 game season is impossible to do. I understand that. Both within a grand season, and even within a game, hockey operates more like tennis. In a five set tennis match, you can't run down every ball on every point for five straight sets. You have to pick and choose when to use your energy, often when your back is against a wall in a set, or if you're trying to close out a set. Michigan Hockey has been the same way in 2021-22, as all teams are. I've opined my frustration about not seeing it more often, particularly at the end of the regular season against this very team, but we have seen them play with a fiery rage a few times this year when a lot was on the line. This weekend, as well as back in October against top tier teams like Duluth and Minnesota State.

Perhaps it took four losses to the same team to make it happen. The anguish of defeat certainly seemed to be part of it, characterized by Michigan's wild celebration at the end of the game on Saturday. You don't hug each other in the triumphant manner that Michigan's players were for a semifinal game unless you really want it. Michigan wanted it badly, that was clear from the body language, the elation in victory, and the energy level they played the entire game with. Now let's just hope Michigan really wants a B1G Tournament Title ring and a national championship banner. 

----

[James Coller]

HockeyBullets 

- Michigan was able to bring the physicality. Notre Dame loves to play tight-checking, physical hockey and Michigan has not seemed terribly comfortable in that style for much of this season. Right from the jump on Saturday, though, the Wolverines appeared ready. Johnny Beecher was throwing his weight around and seeking contact, and all of the Michigan players were finishing their checks whenever possible. That preparation seemed to have them more ready to win the puck battles, and their ability to go into the corner and come out with the puck was much improved compared to previous meetings with the Irish. Nice to see a bit more versatility from this crew. 

- The top line is back. Mel went back to the Johnson-Beniers-Brisson line and it paid big time dividends after being invisible against Notre Dame last time around. They combined for 26 shot attempts (30% of the team's total), and more importantly, this happened: 

Beauty from Beniers pic.twitter.com/RtYEd2AEO6

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 13, 2022

Johnson's speed through the neutral zone creates the play, and then it's the passing of Beniers and Brisson that finishes it off.  A terrific play, and I was glad to see Mel go back to this line and happy to see it pay dividends. The chemistry of the Beecher line and the rhythm that Bordeleau seems to have with Estapa and Mike Pastujov makes this possible. Roll these same lines again next weekend against Minnesota. 

- Michigan's forwards were really committed to defense. The first thing I noticed in the game on Saturday was how engaged Michigan's centers were defensively. Beniers backchecked to shut down a chance and then Bordeleau stripped a breakout from the Irish. That continued to all night long. It was a team-wide effort, not just to build defense off of possession, but to exit with confidence and then disrupt Notre Dame all across the ice. More importantly: they were able to get that defensive buy-in without slacking off offensively or playing tight, like the Saturday game in South Bend. 

When it came time to slam the door, the defense was good enough too. Similar to what they were able to do at Yost a few weeks back against Ohio State, Michigan ground the opposing offense to a halt and bled the game dry late while protecting a lead. Notre Dame got just two shots on goal in the final nine minutes of the game (!), and only one in the final seven. The Irish got zero footing, even when they were most desperate. 

- Notre Dame definitely picked up their energy level in the second, but they got help from the bounces. First there was a bunch of funky bounces on this great save by Portillo: 

BIG save by the Portillo! pic.twitter.com/wTEp1NLCgn

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 13, 2022

Then the goal has the infamous blocked clear by the referee: 

Move, bitch, get out the way. pic.twitter.com/BPEpGvvf0w

— Bryan Mac (@Bry_Mac) March 13, 2022

There was another rush chance shortly after off a terrific bounce. It was a testament to Michigan's defense that the only good ND looks came off either bad bounces or great plays by Notre Dame. 

- Kudos to Notre Dame's passing off the wall. These were the great plays I was talking about. Their lone good look in the first period was an incredible pass off the wall behind the net to the slot, and a very similar pass created the goal: 

🚨 Jack Adams tied it up with his sixth of the year!

Assists: Karashik (15) and J. Janicke (8)#GoIrish pic.twitter.com/QotobdBBkP

— Notre Dame Hockey (@NDHockey) March 13, 2022

Michigan had the front of the net covered, with two guys in position, and yet the pass still hit the intended target on the tape, even from an obscure angle. Not much you can do about that! 

- Jacob Truscott had a very nice game. Michigan's sophomore defenseman was very steady on the back end defensively, and then he made a great pinch on Michigan's game-winning goal: 

The work by Truscott, the vision by Beniers and the snipe by Brisson pic.twitter.com/oaN9a3ezAm

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) March 13, 2022

We only see part of it there, but Truscott starts at the blue line and he slides down the wall to help hold the play in. He ties up his man, then gets the puck back, walks down below the net, engages contact, and gets it to Beniers. As a result, Beniers is able to swing around behind the net and hit Brisson in front for the goal. The interesting thing about this play is that Michigan had gone pretty conservative with their pinches in the early third period. That was the first time in the opening four minutes of the period that Michigan had sent a defenseman on a hard pinch to keep a play alive, but the first time's the charm I guess. 

- Mel went with an interesting forward combo late. In the final minute and with Notre Dame's net empty, Michigan sent out an unusual line of forwards: Matty Beniers centering Garrett Van Wyhe and Mike Pastujov. The simplest way to read this decision is that Mel wanted his three best defensive forwards in the game, but I can't remember another time this season that he scrambled the lines so heavily for a situational moment. However, playoff hockey is the worst time to stay basic. Sometimes you need the proper line for the occasion, and he felt that was it. He was mostly right, as ND got little in that final minute, with the only heart-stopping moment being Erik Portillo's bizarre decision to keep a play alive rather than freezing the puck with 21 seconds to go.  

- Minnesota, next up. Michigan will be playing in Minneapolis on Saturday night for the B1G Tournament crown at 8:00 PM EST on BTN. The Gophers beat Penn State in the other semifinal in what was a rather wobbly performance, going up 2-0 but then blowing the lead, before recovering with a late goal to win it in regulation. Michigan is 2-1-1 this season against Minnesota, taking 4/6 points in the series in Minneapolis back in late January. I'm not going to do much more previewing now because I'm planning to put up a formal football/hoops style preview on the site on Friday, because I think as a big game, it warrants it.  

Beat Minnesota, get #1 overall [James Coller]

PairWise Probabilities 2.0  

Last week we devoted a portion of this column to looking at the seeding scenarios, and this week it's come more clearly into view. This week's probability matrix: 

Even though Michigan is second in PairWise, they are 1st on the matrix because of how the probabilities shake out. The probabilities are based on the KRACH ratings system (college hockey version of KenPom), which thinks Michigan is a cut above Minnesota. Thus, as you can tell by the "AL" and "AQ" columns, Michigan has a 60% chance of beating Minnesota this weekend, per KRACH. I can't say this for sure, but it certainly seems (based on those probabilities) like a Michigan win in that game would leapfrog them back over Minnesota State. That's because Michigan would be beating the #4 team in PWR, while Minnesota State would be hypothetically beating #29 Bemidji State and thus gaining next to no value from winning that game. 

So, let's just say this: beat Minnesota on Saturday and you get the 1st overall seed on Selection Sunday. If that comes to fruition, then you're likely playing the Atlantic Hockey champion, who would be either KRACH #27 American International, #39 RIT, #40 Mercyhurst, or #46 Air Force. Michigan would looooooooove to play one of those teams in the first round, to say the least. If you don't beat Minnesota, and you're 2nd overall, then there are two options: either you play a bid stealer who jumps into the 15th slot (and pushes OSU out), or you play a HockeyEast team, who get swapped with OSU because teams from the same conference can't face each other in round one. Here are the possible options for that, with their KRACH rating in parentheses: 

• Bid Stealers: Clarkson (#17), UCONN (#21), Bemidji State (#23), Harvard (#25), Colgate (#35) 
• HockeyEast options: Mass.-Lowell (#15), Northeastern (#14) 

Definitely preferable to have a bid stealer jump into 15th, not just because it bumps OSU out of the picture (which would be very funny), but also because a bid stealer will be a worse team than either of those HockeyEast options. The easiest way for a bid stealer to happen is if Quinnipiac loses in the ECAC tournament in the semis or finals. If that happens, then one of Clarkson/Harvard/Colgate are guaranteed to steal a bid. Otherwise we're left hoping Bemidji pulls the huge upset of Minnesota State (only 16% chance of that happening), or that UCONN wins two more games and claims the HockeyEast crown (only a 15% chance of that happening). 

[James Coller]

As for the 2/3 line in Michigan's region, we're still looking at the 7-10 slots. Right now those slots are held by Quinnipiac, Notre Dame, Duluth, and St. Cloud. The problem with Michigan getting the first overall seed is that the two teams with the best odds to be in the 8/9 spot are Notre Dame and Duluth. If Michigan is the #1 overall seed, they will get to go to Allentown, PA, and from a geographical standpoint, sending those two schools there makes sense too. Duluth is not an intimidating team to me besides the name (which I personally am not spooked by), but having to be in a region with Notre Dame, after seeing them five times already, is an extremely annoying proposition and not the reward you want for 1st overall.

Maybe the committee would swap things around and send the Irish to Minnesota State's region, but I'm not banking on that. If QPac and Duluth both lose in the semis of their tourney on Friday, it is possible that Notre Dame climbs up to 7th, and you're looking at QPac and Duluth/St. Cloud in the region, which I would gladly take. So cheer for QPac to lose to Colgate and Duluth to lose to North Dakota on Friday night. 

[James Coller]

Rooting for that outcome is also preferable because NoDak falling to 8th is a very bad scenario, considering they're a better team than Duluth (and ND in the KRACH rankings). QPac has handled Colgate pretty well this regular season, but it's a one game semifinal. Anything could happen. One final note about all this: as stated last week, Michigan will either be in Allentown, PA, or Albany, NY. Previous editions of MGoBlog hockey podcasts have mentioned Michigan going to Loveland, CO, but that is only a possibility if Denver drops off the one line, and currently they are at 85% to stay a one seed. Denver, being the "host" of the Loveland Regional, must go there no matter what. So if they are a one seed, they will be the one seed in Loveland. 

Selection Sunday is this coming Sunday, March 20. The show will be on ESPNU at 6:30 PM EST.