UPDATE: The game has been canceled for a COVID outbreak on PFW's end.

THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#18 Michigan (7-4, 1-1 Big Ten) vs #274 Purdue Fort Wayne (5-5, 1-1 Horizon)
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	7 PM Eastern Tuesday 12/21
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -23 Torvik: M -22
TELEVISION	BTN

THE OVERVIEW

Fort Wayne! Home of an infamous overtime hockey tournament loss! TODAY WE WILL AVENGE TINY JESUS!

(PFW got hammered 78-49 by Minnesota in their only game against a high major this year.)

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

The banana peel on Jones can come off if he gets his TO rate under 20. Getting there.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Pipkins is a little tenuous as a disaster factory because last year he was pretty good but an 88 ORTG on high usage is in the zone.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Man this team has some names. My favorite is Vermont transfer Ra Kpedi. He's the center; at 6'9", 245 he's probably going to hold up to Hunter Dickinson trying to back him down, and then Dickinson will just shoot over him. He is close to nonexistent as a rim protector and is another big who gets virtually all of his offense off putbacks and assisted dunks/layups.

You may also vaguely remember Damian Chong Qui if you watched the first four matchup between Mount St. Mary's and Texas Southern last year. He was the little guy—he's listed at 5'8" and therefore may literally be a leprechaun—running around bricking a bunch of stuff. As you'd expect he's miserable inside the line (career 41%) and has been a mediocre three point shooter (32%) over the course of his career. He gets to the line a lot and functions as a high-asssist, relatively low-turnover PG. He is off to a really rough start this year.

Deonte Billups caused me to google Chauncey Billups, discovering that he has three daughters and no sons and thus preventing me from feeling massively old for a brief window of time. Deonte is a Not Just A Shooter who'd probably be better off dropping the "not". He's a 40% three point shooter over the last couple years and while his twos went down at a good clip last year he's got a 26 TO rate.

Jalon Pipkins—again, not Ondre's son—is a high-usage guy who hurls himself at the rim for most of his twos and was an effective three-level scorer (64% at rim, 41% long twos, 44% threes) a year ago. He's an iso/PNR guy and we're currently freaking out about iso/PNR guys; in the context of this opponent Pipkins looks like he'll be a good opportunity to see if any progress is being made on that front. He's struggling this year because he's cold from 3 early and his TO rate has spiked up to 25; he's pretty wild with the ball.

Finally, Jarred Godfrey has a boring name and is the alpha. He shot 54/36/81 last year, got to the line pretty well, and chipped in all over the box score. Like everyone else on this team his primary flaw is an elevated turnover rate, and Minnesota kind of stuffed him in a trash can.

The PFW bench:

• Generic Low Major Backup Big. This one is named Cameron Benford.
• Bobby Planutis technically starts but Billups gets more minutes than him off the bench. He's a 6'8" Just A Shooter.

THE TEMPO FREE

Well, there's your problem:

PFW is in the 300s on defense because teams are hitting everything on them. They're in the 300s in 3P%, 2P%, and FT% on defense. Also they give up a lot of OREBs. This has come against a schedule with just Minnesota as a high major; the next-best team they've played is #176. They're hideous at preventing teams from getting to the rim and give up buckets of open threes. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln.

The other thing of note on the stat profile are a lot of threes chucked at a not-so-great conversion rate.

THE KEYS

Continue repairing self, finding self, doing self-improvement things. Michigan's been bad at a lot of opponent invariant things this year and even against a weak opponent this will be an opportunity to continue moving away from them. Of particular note: Devante' Jones has 17 assists against 1 turnover in his last 3, and had five TOs against Tarleton State and UNLV early this year. Opponent invariant things.

Dunk on them and yell real loud a lot. What it says on the tin.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 23.