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THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#41 Michigan (11-8, 5-4 Big Ten) vs #7 Purdue (19-3, 8-3 Big Ten)
WHERE	Mackey Arena West Lafayette, IN
WHEN	2:30 PM Saturday
THE LINE	Kenpom: PUR -11 Torvik: PUR -12
TELEVISION	FOX

THE OVERVIEW

Whiplash time as Michigan goes from a game against the Big Ten's worst team to its best. Purdue is 19-3 with notable nonconference wins over UNC, Villanova, and Florida State. They've lost at Rutgers and Indiana and at home to Wisconsin. Kenpom has them the number one offense in America by almost two full points over Gonzaga.

Obviously this is going to be tough sledding for Michigan, but a win here would go a long, long way towards shoring up a questionable tourney resume.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No changes.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Choosing a starter at center is an academic exercise; the two bigs split minutes about down the middle. We don't think Brandon Newman is injured but he's been stuck to the bench the last three games after playing fairly consistently before that. Yes, Craig, this is a very good basketball team that was until recently 10 deep.

THE THEM

As per usual Purdue starts with the biggest gol-danged people Matt Painter can find in the United States of America. Usually there are two of them and there's no exception here. Zach Edey and Trevion Williams both return, and both will be addressed as starters. Edey is the guy who gets the nod out of the gate, probably because he's the NCAA's most likely tip-winner, and has played marginally better over the course of the season.

 

While Edey is not the all-consuming rim protector you might expect from a 7'4" guy—he's merely very good—his offensive stats are pure absurdity. He's shooting 70% of the season and draws 7.6 fouls per 40; he rebounds almost 20% of Purdue misses, which is third nationally. Edey is also a surprisingly deft passer for an ogre; his TO rate is very acceptable for a guy with his level of usage (33%) and presence in the post.

I will continue bludgeoning the recruiting industry for having this guy ranked in the 300s two years ago. What.

In any case, Edey is simply too huge to do much of anything with. He doesn't need extensive post moves because he just goes where he wants and then shoots over you. Michigan and Hunter Dickinson held him down in their one matchup a year ago; Edey was just 1/2 in thirteen minutes and didn't have an assist. This is a different version of Edey, though, and he'll be a tougher matchup.

Williams, meanwhile, remains a below-the-rim brick of a human who is equally efficient wherever he shoots from in the paint. This is often well away from the rim. He gets shots, but not great shots, and he's scuffled in Big Ten play, hitting just 47% from two. Last year he was at a 54% clip. On the other hand, he has an absurd assist rate of 33%—one out of every three Purdue makes while he's on the floor is assisted by Williams. Most teams feel they have to double him and Williams is better equipped than anyone else in the country to make opponents pay.

Last year Michigan did not double, allowing Dickinson to go one-on-one, and was rewarded with a 6/17 night and just two assists. That will undoubtedly be the game plan again.

Personally I would much rather see Williams play extended minutes than Edey, because he pretty much is what he is at this point while Edey has leveled up and could physically overwhelm even someone with the size of Dickinson.

Sophomore Mason Gillis is slightly undersized as a four at 6'6" 230 but is the kind of gritty big wing who can operate there just fine if you have facecrushing people at center, which Purdue does. He does nothing on offense except spot up for threes, put OREBS back and cut. These are all fabulously efficient ways to score and Gillis is 98th, 78th, and 97th percentile at these things. He doesn't take a ton of shots but if he's getting one you're in trouble. He's shooting 64/54/88 on the season and has the best ORTG in the nation. Just 13 percent usage, at least.

not quite that D'mitrik Trice picture where he was going up against
Derrick Walton but here's Stefanovic battling with David DeJulius [Campredon]

Sasha Stefanovic is back for his 85th season as a Boilermaker—and he can come back next year! He is Sasha Stefanovic: just a shooter hitting 42% from deep while running around like Serbian Rip Hamilton behind the three point line. Stefanovic is the guy I continually think about when Matt D talks about how Caleb Houstan is only effective as a standstill shooter. Stefanovic is the polar opposite, a guy comfortable shooting threes at a dead sprint.

FWIW, Stefanovic has a solid assist rate this year but it's just dumping it to the post.

Combo guard Jaden Ivey was everyone's pick for breakout player in the Big Ten after some outstanding performances with USA Basketball over the summer and he has lived up to expectations. Last year he was a ludicrously athletic guy with pterodactyl arms and one outstanding weakness: an inability to shoot. This year he's a ludicrously athletic guy with pterodactyl arms shooting almost 20 points better from three. (26% –> 44%). That'll do. A third of those are unassisted, even, as Ivey has a relatively easy time getting pull-ups because defenders are so concerned about getting torched on a drive.

Ivey's numbers from two aren't great because he takes a lot of tough, contested shots on drives to the rim. He takes up so much headspace for opposing defenses that everyone else gets great looks, though, and he gets to the line a lot and converts at a 72% clip once there.

Really hard to see this matchup going well but FWIW, Michigan—and Eli Brooks—held him to 3/9 from two last year. Ivey does not have midrange game so the pull-ups that have been devastating Brooks are probably off the table. Or Ivey will just take them from three and Brooks won't be able to do anything about it.

Point guard Eric Hunter recently reclaimed his starting job, but that's not going to mean a whole lot. Hunter's usage has a fallen off a cliff this year as Ivey, Stefanovic, and the centers suck up all the shots. Ivey's taken over as the primary ballhandler, even. The reduced pressure to perform has seen him shoot back up in efficiency; he was coming off a 44/27 shooting year and is at 50/43 this time around. His TO rate remains elevated.

The Purdue bench:

• Williams, technically.
• 6'10" freshman Caleb Furst was a touted recruit; he backs up at the 4 and gets about 12 MPG. He's shooting 66/41 on pretty thin sample size and has a double digit OREB rate. He's a little TO prone and a peripheral option but is an excellent finisher at the rim.
• Sophomore Ethan Morton has 10% usage and doesn't chip in much statistically despite getting 40% of Purdue minutes. He's shooting 9/19 from three because why not?
• Brandon Newman was relatively efficient as a shooter his freshman year; this year he's Just A Shooter hitting 33% and bringing little else to the table so Purdue doesn't need to play them since everyone else is playing out of their mind. He's gotten a total of one minute the last three games and googling doesn't turn up anything about injury, soooo…
• Willowy Isaiah Thompson is Just A Shooter hitting 41% from deep. He was starting but has been scuffling in Big Ten play (26%) so they've moved back to Hunter. If he does anything but launch a couple threes that's an upset.

THE TEMPO FREE

Ye gods:

Combining the second best EFG offense in the nation with the #7 at rebounding your own missses: that'll do. Purdue is top 20 in A/FGM, 7th at shooting twos, and second at shooting threes at a whopping 42% clip. They don't rely heavily on either twos or threes.

Defensively things are… not great. They sit 93rd; they don't force turnovers and give up buckets of threes that fall at an approximately average rate. Neither are they exceptional at preventing twos; this is a situation where our inability to give the Hoop Lens people money is a real drag because I would kill for some Williams/Edey splits.

THE KEYS

34 Hunter Dickinson minutes. Dickinson foul trouble == ugly loss. This team almost lost to Nebraska because Dickinson was limited; he was +18 while on the floor. Dickinson should be able to neutralize Williams better than just about anyone in the country and will at least give Edey something to think about. Meanwhile on the offensive end things are often disjointed at best while he's not on the floor.

This will be difficult with how many fouls Edey draws. I will die and haunt Devante' Jones if he leaves to early and Dickinson picks up another cheap moving screen call.

Don't get carved up by Ivey iso-ball. Dubious that Michigan can check Ivey with the options on hand. Last year you could play off him and he'd clang threes, so Brooks was able to stay in front of him and force him into midrange jumpers that are a big hole in his game. This year if you do that you're likely to get a pull-up three on your face. I'd maybe live with that just to prevent Purdue from operating their assist-heavy offense.

Hit shots. For whatever reason the three point line is an Achilles heel for Purdue this year. Meanwhile Michigan's three point shooting has careened wildly of late:

That is one of the last seven games with a rate between 20 and 60.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Purdue by 11.