THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#50 Michigan (9-6) at #39 Iowa (10-6)
WHERE	Carver-Hawkeye Arena Iowa City, Iowa
WHEN	7:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: Iowa-5 Torvik: Iowa-6
TELEVISION	ESPN2

THE OVERVIEW

This year's Diet Big Ten has all the same teams with all the same flavors, but the substitutes aren't really the same as the originals. Like Michigan, Iowa's relying on the diet version of last year's star. In our case that's No Longer Trying to Impress the NBA as Much Hunter Dickinson. In theirs it's Keegan Murray's left-handed twin brother Kris, who previewed this season's breakout by teeing off in Ann Arbor last year.

With him is a team not too different from Michigan's last three; in fact Iowa is five spots below Maryland, one spot above MSU, and two above Penn State in today's Kenpom rankings. Like those opponents, they're small at center, and streaky at shooting. Like every Iowa team under Fran McCaffery, they're going to score anyways, and ignore defense. Like Michigan, they're carrying an albatross loss that the two parties have agreed to never speak of again (*whispers* but theirs was so much worse). They're also dealing with injuries.

The big difference is Iowa has some Quad 1 wins, those all-important Tournament factors of which Michigan currently has zero. If they're going to come away with any from their first 16 games, a win at Iowa, who's at 40 and would have to remain in the top 75, is their best bet. Other options are hoping Maryland (#38) or Penn State (#52) get to top 30, or Pittsburgh (#64) climbs into the top 50.

Iowa's first was over land grant bro Iowa State, who shot 3/22 from the arc at Carver-Hawkeye while Iowa buried 12 of 23. Murray was absent for the albatross but present for their 66-50 loss at Nebraska—when Iowa shot 7/28 from three—that followed. Fran's son Patrick began his hiatus the next game, an 83-79 loss at PSU (Iowa shot 7/25). In his absence however, Iowa had a 91-89 victory over Indiana, and a surprising 76-65 upset of #16 Rutgers at the RAC. Three-point shooting in that game: 12/27 for Iowa, 5/18 for Rutgers (also an extremely Iowa game-uncharacteristic 27 total turnovers!).

I realize people are starting to get annoyed at the attention paid around here to "just make your shots!" but bear with me for one more week as we preview a team that takes 25 threes a game, makes 30% of them, and has won or lost every game but one (Clemson) based on which side of average they're shooting that night.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

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No changes.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

There are some injuries to talk about. The one of least consequence is Connor McCaffery took a shot in the face last week, and is expected to be in a mask (hence the mask).

Patrick McCaffery however is taking an indefinite leave to deal with anxiety that he says is not related to the cancer he survived. Those minutes are going to his brother Connor and winger Payton Sandfort. Losing Ogundele as well means Iowa has an extremely short bench, and is extremely small up front, with Murray moving to the five when Rebraca has to come off. Sophomore big Riley Mulvey is available but has only played 1 minute since Ogundele went out. Freshman PG Dasonte Bowen was given every opportunity to push Ulis to the bench, and has seen his minutes decrease to Isaiah Barnes range since that opportunity was not seized.

[After THE JUMP: I promise to talk about something other than making shots.]

THE THEM

[Campredon]

Serbian C Filip Rebraca is the only really plausible five on the roster at the moment, forcing him to play as many minutes (~80%) as he did in his 2nd and 3rd years at North Dakota. He has also recreated most of his numbers from the Summit League, making 60% of his twos and rebounding 11 and 19 percent of his team's and opponents' misses, respectively. Rebraca was a threat from outside (37% on 41 attempts) for NoDak but at Iowa he's been mostly paint-bound. He's done a lot of his work in the Big Ten as a cutter, but this year he's developed an Iowa man's post-up game, shooting 56% on the block and drawing a lot more fouls.

Defensively, he's historically been, you know, an Iowa center. However opponents are only making 41% of their post-ups against him this year, versus 50% last year. He held Kyle Filipowski and Derek Lively of Duke to 5/12 from two, but Indiana led most of their game thanks to 30 points from Trayce Jackson-Davis. Rebraca doesn't have the verticality of a true rim protector, and a fully engaged Hunter Dickinson shouldn't have an issue with a guy like this. But one way this game could get ugly in a hurry is if half-assing Hunter is settling for jumpers, or picks up a couple of cheap ones early.

The most likely way this gets ugly is Kris Murray putting Terrance Williams in a trash can. "Not quite Keegan Murray" is still a guy shooting 62/39, though on 24% usage, not Keegan's insane 28. A three-level scorer, Kris has been on fire since returning from a minor injury that hampered him against Duke in early December. Last three games he's 4/4, 8/12, and 9/11 from two. He's also the most consistent three-point shooter in the league, exactly matching his career average, and making exactly three or four in 8/12 games he's played in this year.

A lot of his game comes in transition, but like his brother he's got great size, hands, and body control, a penchant for heroic timing, and just so many ways to score on you:

He's actually a better spot-up shooter Keegan and in the running with Edey and Pickett for Big Ten PoY, even if he doesn't create his shots quite as much as his right-handed twin. Crown.

Sixth-year (four-game redshirt+COVID) guard Connor McCaffery has moved into his brother's starting spot and is having a great shooting season, hitting 60/37/94 (twos/threes/FTs) after five years of establishing himself as a 42/32/76 guy. That is all on extremely low usage, mind you, but with Wisconsin's injury gremlin out of eligibility, Connor holds the mantle of most annoying player in the Big Ten all to himself.

SG Tony Perkins is a big guard taking on a bigger role this year, and hasn't really changed from the 42/30 shooter he's always been, but he's Got That Dog in Him and will go off for stretches. Iowa's 14-1 (the one was Michigan) run through their BTT championship last year began when Perkins was inserted in the starting lineup. That season also ended on his three-turnover afternoon against 12th-seeded Richmond. He's a decent finisher at the rim but pulls up for tweeners in the lane way too often.

The other big guard PG Ahron Ulis's main feature is not being Jordan Bohannon in all things. Unfortunately that includes shooting; his 2/4 night against Rutgers ended a four-game drought from three. Like Perkins, Ulis is a bigger guy who'll go and create his own shot, except instead of pulling up Ulis is always looking to get to the rim and draw contact. This is the guy who took more free throws than field goals as a freshman, and still scored 35% of his points last year from the stripe. That part of his game has mostly gone away this year—his FTRate is down to a reasonable 16.3 from 48 and 133 his first two seasons. His turnover rate is still pretty high, but his defense is some three point luck away from pretty decent.

The Bench:

• W Payton Sandfort is getting half of Iowa's minutes with all the injuries to wings, and is coming off an incredible game at Rutgers: 4/5 from 3, 22 points on 11.5 possessions plus a steal, an assist, and a block. He was pretty good against Indiana too. He profiles as a Just-a-Shooter, and doesn't miss many free throws, but until the Rutgers game he was just 14/69 from outside this year and started the Big Ten season 0/17. He's a big "if the first one goes in Uh Oh" kind of guy.
• PG Dasante Bowen is a lot taller than Dug, which kind of destroys the comparison, but is otherwise Dug, a true freshman who makes some weird stuff happen at the rim and is running a million miles a second. They tried having Bowen replace Ulis but it didn't go well; off the bench for 10 minutes and a jolt of energy is a good role for him now.
• G Josh Nix is their other true freshman, and just a shooter at this point.
• C Riley Mulvey is a 6'11"/250 sophomore but so unplayable they've been going small ball rather than use him in Big Ten play. The last time they trotted him out for more than garbage time was 8 minutes against Duke's twin towers. They'll try to avoid it if possible.

THE TEMPO FREE

Iowa is 2nd in the country at non-steal turnover percentage because they don't have ball-dominant point guards attempting too many passes after the initial runout. At this point you know the drill: attack in transition, pull up if it's there, get it to the scorers if it's not. If they had some shooters at the guard spots it would be a vintage flame-throwing McCaffery team.

They are getting offensive boards at a much higher clip than usual, and Rebraca and Murray have been excellent at producing their own points. They'll also go five-out whenever Rebraca needs a break. If you get all the way to the rim they'll let you have a basket rather than risk a foul on the forwards. But they'll also bring doubles quickly to prevent you from getting there, hence all the shoot-a-thons they keep ending up in. Makes on threes are a force multiplier for them because Rebraca (I know, it's weird) is their best defender. When a shot goes in, he can get back. When it doesn't, you can run out off the rebound and the lane is clear.

THE KEYS

Bully. [Campredon]

Continue clamping down on transition. Michigan's been very good at getting back under Howard. Iowa gets a third of their buckets in transition, and is just as reliant on Rebraca, who hasn't faced many Hunter Dickinsons this year, as Murray when they're set.

Continue rebounding like every board is a Chippewa. How did Iowa beat Clemson when their shooting failed them? 17 offensive rebounds. It's not just near the basket; their guards will clang 'em and even Murray tends to miss by a lot before he finds his stroke, so box out to midcourt if you have to.

Hunter Dickinson please find your inner bully. Michigan hasn't been getting All-American play from their All-American. He's suffered some heinous officiating at Carver-Hawkeye in the past. Maybe that will get him mad enough to drive deep and put some fouls on the only guys Iowa has to defend him?

Get Kris Murray from good looks. T-Will got away with falling asleep against MSU's Joey Hauser; this game is going to be an all-out defensive effort. I'm not asking him to be Moussa Diabate vs Keegan here—Murray's gonna Murray—but keep him to 20 not 30 please.

HIT SHOOOOOOOOOOOTS. I would like to be talking about something else after a game. Iowa goes as Iowa shoots, and will run out after every Michigan miss.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Iowa by 5.