will tschetter

Matched up with the #2 team in college basketball this afternoon, Michigan Men's Basketball strung together a decently valiant effort but came up short with another short-handed roster, a loss chalked up to defensive rebounding and foul trouble, some legitimate and some suspicious. Like most games, Michigan led for a large swath of the first half before trailing for much of the game thereafter, but never let Purdue bury them, even with excessive fouling hamstringing a roster already missing the injured big man Olivier Nkamhoua. Michigan hung around and hung around but ultimately couldn't make enough of a charge late and lost by high single digits. The Wolverines are now 8-20 (3-14), with three games left in the regular season. 

Before the game, Michigan got word that they would be without guard Jaelin Llewellyn, who was originally listed as questionable (in addition to the injured Nkamhoua). Will Tschetter was back after missing the Northwestern game, but a Michigan roster that wasn't deep to begin with sans two rotational pieces is in for a challenge, even when not facing an elite team like Purdue. The Wolverines, as they do most games, started pretty well, scoring the game's first five points and then led 10-4 on two Dug McDaniel three pointers. But even in this quick spurt, the problem of foul trouble was popping up. Center Tarris Reed Jr. picked up two fouls in the game's first 4.5 minutes while battling with Purdue superstar Zach Edey and went straight to the bench, putting the more undersized Will Tschetter (as well as Tray Jackson) in position to guard Edey. It wouldn't be long before Tschetter and Jackson would be racking up fouls of their own while giving up easy buckets inside. 

Stil, Michigan was hot out of the gate and generally shot the ball well all day. They led 19-13 via good ball movement and lights out shooting, allowing them to stay in front of the Boilers despite the fouls. Within 7.5 minutes of the game starting, there were seven team fouls against the Wolverines, placing Purdue into the bonus, including two on Reed, two on Jackson, and two on guard/wing Nimari Burnett. Foul trouble against Reed put Michigan in a disadvantageous matchup vs. Edey from a size perspective, and led to the ongoing theme of Purdue destroying Michigan on the glass. Just over nine minutes into the game Purdue was rebounding 56% of their misses(!!!) and that number wouldn't fluctuate much during the rest of the game. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The extra possessions Purdue was getting via the OREBs allowed the Boilers to stay in the ballpark of the Wolverines while Michigan was shooting it well early. Purdue went on a small run to shave the lead down to 22-21 and the game eventually became tied at 25 at the under eight minute timeout. Forced to play unconventional lineups with George Washington III seeing extended time due to Burnett's foul issues, in addition to Jace Howard logging minutes in the front court because of the big fouls, Michigan eventually began to splinter and a hard Purdue charge surged them ahead before halftime. After Michigan led 30-29 on a Washington triple, Purdue closed the half on an 18-6 run, getting the final points on an Edey layup at the horn to lead 47-36. 

Given Michigan's tendency for catastrophic meltdowns in the second halves of games, it seemed like the rally by the road team (although the crowd was littered with fans in old gold and black who were quite noisy) may lead to a blowout in the second half. Instead, to Michigan's credit, they dug in and kept battling. Purdue bumped the lead up to 14 but Michigan punched back and got it down to single digits on a Burnett three and that's where the margin sat for most of the second half. Dug McDaniel played a pretty solid game and scored 10 in the second half, while Burnett rebounded from an ugly first half to score 12 in the latter stanza. Unfortunately, Michigan had no answer in the second half for Edey (or in either half really) dominating inside offensively and then a mix of size and hustle continued to annihilate Michigan on the glass. Purdue grabbed seven more second half offensive rebounds (five were Edey's) after ten in the first half. 

Michigan occasionally showed interest in mounting a charge but could never string together a run because they couldn't get stops consistently. They didn't slow Purdue's offense down much and when they forced misses, Purdue rebounded half of them. Foul trouble continued to mount, giving Edey increasingly easier matchups. Some of those fouls were dubious, including the fifth on Will Tschetter coming with 7:38 left in the game, and even more so the fifth on Reed. Michigan was down 78-70 with 3.5 minutes left in the offensive end, a missed three by McDaniel was loose rolling towards the sideline. Reed went for it and got tangled up with Lance Jones of Purdue, whistled for a foul that sent the home crowd into uproar. Juwan Howard charged out onto the court to vigorously argue with the referees, but was restrained by McDaniel, as well as members of the Michigan bench. The closest Michigan got the score down to was seven, but they ultimately ran out of time and lost by eight. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

In totality, the two teams shot similar clips from the field (47% Purdue, 48% Michigan), but Purdue made more free throws thanks to the Michigan fouls and attempted eight more field goals thanks to the offensive rebounding. That, plus Edey's dominance (35 points on 14/18!!), was the difference in the game. Michigan had a solid, efficient offensive day shooting 42.9% from three, but didn't have the right roster to win this game, not deep enough and not big enough, not to mention not good enough defensively. Maybe with Nkamhoua healthy they may have been able to pull off the upset, but this group was not set up to defeat a team with a dominant big man. Reed and Tschetter both fouled out and Jackson finished with four fouls. 

Michigan has now fallen to 8-20 on the season, 3-14 in the B1G, and has three regular season games remaining. As of this writing, Michigan State leads at home over Ohio State, which would put the Bucks two games ahead of Michigan in the race at the bottom of the standings. Michigan plays Ohio State next Sunday and in theory, finishing 2-1 with a win over OSU while OSU loses out would get Michigan out of the cellar because Michigan would own the head-to-head tiebreak. But it remains more likely that Michigan will finish dead-last in the conference, with Torvik projecting them to win only one of their final three games. It is not the hardest closing schedule, playing teams 13th and 12th in the standings on the road in Rutgers/OSU, as well as a mediocre Nebraska team at home. But this Michigan team hasn't been able to win many games, period, so strength of schedule only matters so much. The next game is this Thursday at 8:30 PM EST in Piscataway against Rutgers, scheduled to be broadcast on FS1. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

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With roughly a third of the regular season over for Michigan, this is a good time for a macro level look in an effort to understand where the Wolverines are and where things might be going as we head into the thick of conference play. 

Real

Perimeter Shotmaking. The Wolverines are connecting on 37.1% of their triples as a team, good for #50 nationally per Torvik. While the raw percentage is certainly indicative of the team's shooting prowess to a certain extent, a deeper dive is necessary to gain a full understanding.

Per Synergy, Michigan is putting up 1.09pps on catch and shoot jumpers, landing in the 77th percentile across the nation. While that number is certainly good, it's not quite elite territory. A closer look reveals the Wolverines may actually be underperforming a bit on these looks. The team is at 1.10pps/51st percentile on 67 unguarded catch and shoot attempts. On the other hand, 1.09pps/82nd percentile on 128 catch and shoot attempts that are guarded. It's easy to see where Michigan might experience some positive regression with respect to the unguarded attempts.

Numbers aside, the distribution is very encouraging in terms of sustainability + projection. The Wolverines have four players shooting volume triples on percentages that you want to see. McDaniel/Burnett/Williams/Nkamhoua are all above 35% from distance while taking at least three triples per game. Throw in a high-efficiency/low-volume shooter like Tschetter and Michigan is very likely to have at least a few guys stretching the floor per game, as we have 4-5 viable options at different positions to ensure there aren't many games where the well is completely dry. 

In addition to the raw percentage and distribution, the variety of shot types also lend credence to legitimate shooting prowess. We're not talking stationary corner triples exclusively here. We have difficult shotmakers in the backcourt and Dug McDaniel is leading the charge.

To quantify, Dug is 83rd percentile in off-the-dribble jumpers at 1.07pps. A sample size of 45 shots isn't necessarily big, but it is large enough to say that he's not a guy you can go under ballscreens against without penalty. 

[AFTER THE JUMP we get a bit more real and not so real]

p>The Wolverines secured a much needed Q1 victory with a road drubbing of Iowa over the weekend. Michigan put together the most complete two-way performance of the season against a Hawkeye team that came into the contest as a top-20 adjusted offense per both Torvik and Kenpom. 

Let's take a look under the hood to examine what went into the blowout.

 

Defensive Rebounding

I differ from most when assessing the primary defensive issues that have plagued Michigan early this season. The lack of timely off-ball rotations and lapses in transition defense certainly loom large in the defensive woes, but not at the top of the list in my opinion. 

The Wolverines have been horrid in terms of finishing possessions, checking in with the #224 DReb rate per Torvik. To put this in perspective, Michigan's Dreb rate has been below 70 four games this season. That is absolutely mindblowing considering the Wolverines play two bigs for large portions of games. 

In the win against Iowa, the Wolverines came up with 78.8% of the available defensive rebounds and it paid massive dividends in aiding the defense. 

Will Tschetter was a massive part of this victory, pulling down 35.8% of the available defensive rebounds during his time on the floor. Let's take a look at some of his best work in the clip below. 

After beating Sandfort to the spot, watch Will take young Payton for a ride from the left side of the paint before dropping him off outside the paint on the right side. The box-out was so good that Tschetter was barely forced to jump in order to secure the rebound. That's premium cheddar right there.

Now let's take a look at the guards getting into the action. First up, Nimari Burnett.

After Tarris forces a wild fadeaway, Nkamhoua does a fairly good job of boxing-out Ladji Dembele, but to no avail. Dembele comes up with not one, but two, offensive rebounds in the same possession. 

Look at the :18 mark in the clip. Burnett is forced to switch on Dembele after the screen. Iowa spots this and hits him with the entry pass on the mismatch. But Nimari does a good job using his length to contest the jumphook. He nearly finishes the possession himself, as he left the ground quicker than Dembele on the rebound attempt. A scrum ensues and Michigan is able to regain possession. These sort of efforts are critical for team defense. 

[AFTER THE JUMP more Cheese, a face-up five and the bench mob]