jaelin llewellyn

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With roughly a third of the regular season over for Michigan, this is a good time for a macro level look in an effort to understand where the Wolverines are and where things might be going as we head into the thick of conference play. 

Real

Perimeter Shotmaking. The Wolverines are connecting on 37.1% of their triples as a team, good for #50 nationally per Torvik. While the raw percentage is certainly indicative of the team's shooting prowess to a certain extent, a deeper dive is necessary to gain a full understanding.

Per Synergy, Michigan is putting up 1.09pps on catch and shoot jumpers, landing in the 77th percentile across the nation. While that number is certainly good, it's not quite elite territory. A closer look reveals the Wolverines may actually be underperforming a bit on these looks. The team is at 1.10pps/51st percentile on 67 unguarded catch and shoot attempts. On the other hand, 1.09pps/82nd percentile on 128 catch and shoot attempts that are guarded. It's easy to see where Michigan might experience some positive regression with respect to the unguarded attempts.

Numbers aside, the distribution is very encouraging in terms of sustainability + projection. The Wolverines have four players shooting volume triples on percentages that you want to see. McDaniel/Burnett/Williams/Nkamhoua are all above 35% from distance while taking at least three triples per game. Throw in a high-efficiency/low-volume shooter like Tschetter and Michigan is very likely to have at least a few guys stretching the floor per game, as we have 4-5 viable options at different positions to ensure there aren't many games where the well is completely dry. 

In addition to the raw percentage and distribution, the variety of shot types also lend credence to legitimate shooting prowess. We're not talking stationary corner triples exclusively here. We have difficult shotmakers in the backcourt and Dug McDaniel is leading the charge.

To quantify, Dug is 83rd percentile in off-the-dribble jumpers at 1.07pps. A sample size of 45 shots isn't necessarily big, but it is large enough to say that he's not a guy you can go under ballscreens against without penalty. 

[AFTER THE JUMP we get a bit more real and not so real]

Michigan is 2-3 versus high-major opponents this season after a heartbreaking loss to a depleted Oregon team on the road. Following the loss to Texas Tech, the Wolverines had more than a week off to work out the kinks defensively and I was very curious to see how things looked on that end of the court. In short, things did not look good. 

That much is fairly obvious to even the most casual Michigan hoops fan, but the question is why? Let's take a look under the hood to better understand the root issues the team is facing. 

Sleepwalking Bigs

It certainly wasn't the only issue, but the bigs falling asleep defensively was definitely among the more prominent problems. Early in the game and Tarris Reed is matched up one-one-one against Jermaine Couisnard in a late-clock scenario. Reed is generally a very good perimeter defender when switched against guards. Terrance Williams is also in help position at the nail area. 

Nkamhoua completely leaves Kwame Evans to camp out in the paint..........before Couisnard even takes a dribble. Tarris easily beats Couisnard to the spot and forces a kickout. But Kwame Evans has relocated and is now a viable release valve for Couisnard as Olivier is nowhere to be found. Easy triple for Evans. 

This was a recurring issue for for Nkamhoua. A few minutes later TWill/Olivier easily execute a switch as Jadrian Tracey gets the ball on the left wing. Williams is in perfect position and shading him baseline with Tschetter in help position on the weakside. Again, Nkamhoua completely vacates Couisnard on the wing to provide unnecessary help and gives Oregon a viable release valve.

Couisnard isn't able to connect, but the process is bad. 

[AFTER THE JUMP some issues with miscommunication, rebounding and the small guards]

The Michigan Wolverines Men's Basketball team went across the pond to London, England to face another top 25 opponent in the Kentucky Wildcats. Much like on Tuesday, it was a valiant effort that saw Michigan give themselves a chance to pull out a resume-building win, but it met the same fate. That is, a tough defeat late that qualifies as a victory in the moral column, but not the one that matters. Frustrating yes, but some takeaways to be had too. Here's a quick recap for your Sunday afternoon: 

The first half of action was an evenly-matched back-and-forth affair. One team would take the lead, stretch it to two possessions, and then the other squad would come storming right back. Michigan led 17-11 off a 9-0 run, punctuated by Jett Howard getting fouled on a trey attempt and swishing all three free throws, but Kentucky answered with a 6-0 run to tie it. From that point forward it was tight, with the biggest lead in the latter stages of the half being five points. After Isaiah Barnes surprisingly knocked down a three to put Michigan ahead 34-29 with 3:56 to go, Kentucky's defense tightened up and big man Oscar Tshiebwe got going. He made a layup, snatched a rebound leading to an Antonio Reeves three, and then drew a foul and hit two free throws, a 7-0 run that erased the Michigan advantage. The Wolverines would score just two points in the final ~four minutes of the half and were trailing by one, 37-36, at the half. 

At halftime, the box score indicated an evenly matched game. Kentucky shot 13/30 from the floor; Michigan shot 13/32. Kentucky was 5/8 from three; Michigan was 5/10. Kentucky had eight turnovers; Michigan had committed six. Kentucky's big had 11 points; Michigan's had 9. Both teams had a wing with nine points, Kentucky's Reeves and Michigan's Kobe Bufkin. It was a game that looked as close as the score indicated. 

[Campredon]

The second half opened hot for Kentucky, who began on a 12-6 run to build their largest lead of the afternoon. Cason Wallace made a jumper and then knocked down a pair of triples for Kentucky's first eight points of the half. After Tshiebwe and Reeves joined in with points, Juwan Howard took a timeout to get his team to regroup. It worked. Michigan came out of the timeout with an 8-0 run to take the lead back, cashing in at the free throw line and getting a Dickinson tip-in to drop. Play continued in tight fashion and Kentucky held a 55-54 at the midway point of the second half. Tight, again. 

Michigan, who played several odd bench lineups for stretches of the game, did so with under 10 minutes remaining, and it was the tandem of Tarris Reed and Dug McDaniel who trimmed a small Kentucky edge down to two points after McDaniel hit a three. McDaniel's role in the game would quickly elevate, and not in a good way: Michigan starting PG Jaelin Llewellyn would go down with a non-contact knee injury and had to be helped off the court, later seen icing the knee on the bench. Llewellyn would not return and McDaniel thus became the PG for the rest of the game. 

With 7:34 to go, the Wildcats led 60-58, with their advantage from beyond the arc the only difference in the game. Michigan was within striking distance for a signature win, but that's when the offense began to dry up. They'd go scoreless for over 3 minutes, with Dickinson missing easy layups and the front-end of a one-and-one. The Wolverine defense held up decently well but Kentucky was able to stretch the lead to eight with just over four minutes left when Juwan Howard called timeout. Kobe Bufkin's steal leading to a Jett Howard put-back bucket finally ended the dry period and then a McDaniel floater cut the lead back to four. 

Get well soon, Jaelin [Campredon]

John Calipari called timeout with 2:55 remaining and Michigan would force two misses on the ensuing Kentucky possession, but a pair of offensive rebounds for the Wildcats set up a tip-in for Jacob Toppin. Jett Howard answered with a fancy hookshot against contact and after Kobe Bufkin drew a charge, a Dickinson dunk cut the margin to 68-66 with 1:44 left. Calipari called another timeout and it was the next Kentucky possession that decided the game. The Wildcats passed it around and eventually found Cason Wallace open for three. Wallace connected on his fourth three of the game in as many tries and Kentucky had a five point edge. Howard missed a three and Michigan was quickly into the foul game. Kentucky would actually miss several free throws down the stretch, which allowed the Wolverines to keep the margin close, but they never again had the ball down one possession. The final horn sounded, and Kentucky had won 73-69. 

Michigan came up short in this game and the final box score indicates why: the Wolverines shot under 40% from the field, as key misses late weighed down their shooting percentage and the difference from beyond the arc was stark. Kentucky was 9/15 from three, with Wallace's 4/4 mark standing out as heroic for the Wildcats, while Michigan shot a fine 8/20. Good, but not quite good enough. There were stretches where the Wolverines offense looked good enough to win, but those stretches were in between dry periods. 

Dickinson led Michigan with 23 points, but he did it on an inefficient 10/22 shooting, with turnovers and poor shot selection harming him in the first half. He was better in the second. Bufkin had a nice showing with 11 points, getting a bigger role in the offense and showing why he's Michigan's best defensive player. Howard battled foul trouble but scored 16 points, which was good for second on the team. Isaiah Barnes' two threes off the bench was a bright spot for an otherwise empty unit yet again, while Terrance Williams II's 3 points in 32 minutes will almost certainly be discussed in the coming days. Llewellyn's health is another storyline to watch over the next week. 

Michigan falls to 5-3 on the season still in search of a non-conference victory worth much of anything for the resume. Before they return to the non-con, they must open up B1G play on Thursday night against Minnesota. That game is in Minneapolis and is scheduled for 9:00 PM. There is no content after the jump.