THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#28 Michigan (16-12, 10-8 Big Ten) vs #14 Iowa (21-8, 11-7 Big Ten)
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	9 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: IA -1 Torvik: M -2
TELEVISION	FS1

THE OVERVIEW

The March To March once again asks Michigan to please win two games in a row to make everything feel less tenuous. This time the opportunity comes against Iowa, a top-15 team who Michigan beat fairly comfortably at Carver-Hawkeye a couple of weeks ago, terrifying late Iowa surge notwithstanding.

Iowa is 4-0 since, with all of those games double-digit wins. Those games were against two of the worst teams in the conference and free-falling MSU and OSU squads, but overall they're seven of their last eight. That eighth was against Michigan.

Michigan almost definitely needs one of their last two to get in with a reasonable (ie, 1-1) Big Ten tourney. This one is a quad one game at home; it is obviously crucial.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Frankie Collins badge is premature but it's on the table after his performance against MSU.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Thank you, Fran, for not making an ambiguous lineup change two games ago. Again.

THE THEM

Updates from the first preview:

• Patrick McCaffrey missed Iowa's game against Northwestern with a hip injury suffered against Nebraska. Somewhat bafflingly it was his brother Connor who got the lion's share of the increased time, not Kris Murray and his high usage/120 ORTG self. Conor torched NW with 5/9 shooting from deep, but 33 minutes for him and 10 for Kris is weird.
• I'm kind of a believer in Filip Rebraca's Synergy post defense stats? Emphasis on"kind of": Iowa relentlessly doubled Dickinson, leading to 7 assists from the big man despite atrocious three point shooting, so there are limits. But he's out there for something and it's not to be a major offensive factor. Still getting about 20 MPG as Iowa goes small ball for the rest.
• Keegan Murray's stats are even more absurd now. Your incredibly multifaceted offensive threat with huge usage now has a top five turnover rate nationally. Michigan does own one of only three < 99 ORTG performances from Murray this year. He had 23 points on 27 shooting possessions and three turnovers as Diabate battled him in ways he usually does not see.
• Tony Perkins continues to start over Joe Toussaint. Against everyone not named Nebraska this means 4-6 points. He is not a shooter so point guards can help whether its Perkins or Joe Toussaint in the game.
• Connor McCaffrey was Just A Shooter hitting 25% from deep; now he's Just A Shooter hitting 39%. Hooray for low sample sizes.

THE TEMPO FREE

Conference numbers:

That turnover rate is not just #1 in the conference but #1 nationally, and that plus offensive rebounds are the whole story of Iowa's efficiency. They don't actually shoot that well, they don't get a ton of threes, they don't have a ton of assists. They just never boot the ball out of bounds and get a lot of second chances.

On the flip side, their lack of size can lead to them getting blasted on the boards. Most of their steals come from the PG spot, so this might not be a great spot to continue exploring the Frankie Collins experience. This doesn't look like a matchup for him.

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

I guess I'll trade a bid for an NBA departure. Moussa Diabate was 95% of why Michigan won at Carver-Hawkeye. On defense he made Keegan Murray scuffle for his 23 points, and on the other end he ruthlessly exposed Murray—either Murray—on defense, going 12/14 from the floor. Many of those looks were Diabate's short post hook that goes up from just outside the circle. Iowa will no doubt adjust by trying to take that away, and also by doubling. Diabate has flashed as a passer; he's going to get tested severely in this game if Michigan tries to run post offense through him.

Also after the last game I bet Iowa puts Murray on the block a lot to start festivities. Murray put Diabate under the basket for an early bucket and then Iowa never really returned to it. The prospect of repeating that and possibly drawing fouls on Diabate will be tempting. Michigan doubling early might be a good idea since you don't really have to scramble to the Iowa PG.

Anyway, if Diabate puts Murray in a trash can again you have to figure someone's going to draw a line from the Diabate to the late first round. Alas.

Continue living at the rim. Michigan's shooting splits from the first game are pretty remarkable. 25 shots at the rim versus 17 longer twos is something, but when you consider that 12 of those 17 longer twos were from Diabate and Dickinson—ie, they were about two face-up jumpers and 10 post hooks—this was a relentless march to the tin. Iowa has no shotblocking and plays without a center at all for half the game, so keep that midrange stuff for the Illinoises of the world.

Continue clamping down on transition. Michigan did a good job to keep Iowa out of transition they excel at. They're the fastest team in the league; per Synergy Michigan actually had them beat down the floor with 16 transition possessions to Iowa's 11, and a couple of those came late during the sloppy period where Michigan was closing out a game they thought was over while Iowa did not. That's a 14% rate of transition possessions; Iowa averages 21%. That was a large part of the final margin--and how slim it got once Michigan backslid. 

HIT SHOOOOOTS. Diabate wouldn't have had to be so dominant if Michigan hadn't gone 4/20 on threes that were almost all set up by Dickinson passing out of doubles. Michigan's hit threes reasonably well over the course of this homestand, with Home Caleb Houstan jumping out as a real thing.

Iowa will continue to crash down on Dickinson. Hit shots. The Michigan that hits 33% from three is real tough to beat.

Once again retain the services of the Missed Dunk Fairy. Canny idea to slide her five bucks before the last game.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Iowa by 1.