Michigan has landed one of the most coveted transfers in the country at their position of greatest uncertainty. Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante' Jones picked the Wolverines over fellow finalists Memphis, Texas, and Texas Tech moments ago on the Field of 68 podcast. While the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is testing the NBA Draft waters, Jones is expected to withdraw at some point in the evaluation process—he did just choose a school, after all.

Jones had his destination in mind before announcing his choice and told 247's Dushawn London why he ultimately picked Michigan:

“I made my choice based on where I can fit the system. I watched film on all the teams and there is a particular team that stood out for my style of play and I can't unsee it. I feel like the only way it wouldn't work if it was my fault. I couldn't blame anyone, it would be my fault. Plus the fan base stood out. Coastal had a major fan base and it doubled them and they were amazing. Just the collective effort from the coaches, the fan base and just the whole university.”

Listed at 6'1, 200 pounds, Jones is a grad transfer with two seasons of eligibility remaining. His addition puts Michigan one player over the scholarship limit for now, though that's anticipated to change whenever projected lottery pick Franz Wagner announces his NBA Draft intentions.

STATS

Let's start, as we often do here, by anchoring ourselves with some numbers. Context is important when discussing transfers: the Sun Belt was 14th in KenPom's conference rankings in 2019-20 (the last year with significant non-conference crossover), producing near dead-average teams and finishing just ahead of the Ivy League, a useful comparison point what with Mike Smith coming over from Columbia last year.

Much like Smith at Columbia, Jones has been the go-to guy for Coastal Carolina the last two years, though his role was significantly different in those two seasons. As a sophomore, Jones was a classic point guard who ran a lot of pick-and-roll with good efficiency. This past season, however, the Chanticleers were better off with Jones playing the two as the team spread around ballhandling duties; he got much more of his usage spotting up (and often attacking closeouts) or cutting to the hoop.

Jones produced in both roles. He averaged 17.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game in 2019-20, then 19.3/7.2/2.9 last season to earn conference player of the year. While his outside shot hasn't always been dialed in—more on that later—his impressive finishing at the hoop, solid pullup game, and ability to convert fouls into points have made him an efficient player throughout his career.

These numbers are pulled from Torvik and don't include non-DI competition, which pulls four games from the 2020-21 sample:

	USG	ORtg	eFG%	TS%	ARate	TO%	FTRate	FT	2P	3P
2020-21	24.7	116.5	52.7	59.3	16.8	16.2	43.3	109-126 (86.5%)	98-180 (54.4%)	37-111 (33.3%)
2019-20	26.4	113.8	53.0	59.8	33.4	21.9	46.0	146-169 (86.4%)	142-248 (57.3%)	35-119 (29.4%)

Note the huge gap between effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage; the latter takes free throws into account, and the improvement from eFG% to TS% shows how much value Jones adds by drawing fouls and hitting free throws (a lot).

While this can get dangerous in a hurry, let's look at a few defensive metrics:

	DReb%	Stl%	Fouls/40	DBPM	D-PRPG	DRtg
2020-21	17.4	4.2	3.1	2.8	3.9	88.3
2019-20	16.5	2.7	3.4	0.8	2.8	102.7

Jones is an excellent defensive rebounder for his position. He aggressively hunts the ball, posting the #18 steal rate in the country last season. He poses a danger as both an on-ball pickpocket and jumper of passing lanes. That aggression comes with some extra fouls but not enough to get him into serious trouble too often; I also expect Juwan Howard to rein him in a bit on that end—he's on a better team that doesn't need to gamble as much now.

Across the board, the all-in-one metrics like him as a defender and believe he stepped up his game as a junior. Synergy grades him as a poor on-ball defender. So much of that is due to shortcomings against spot-up shooters that I think a lot of his low grade is because of scheme—CC played zone for about a quarter of their possessions—though he also comes out below average defending pick-and-roll ballhandlers.

Being in Michigan's defensive environment with Hunter Dickinson, Moussa Diabate, and Brandon Johns ready to clean up mistakes should make him look better. For what it's worth, Coastal's defense went off a cliff without him, via Hoop Lens:

A seven-point gap in two-point percentage is massive and a strong indicator that Jones was substantially better on defense than most of his teammates.

The line is starting to blur between scouting and stats, which is my cue to move to the next section, where I'll continue to blur the two but with more video and fewer charts.

[Hit THE JUMP for my scouting, lots of video, and the team's outlook with Jones in the fold.]

SCOUTING

For this post I've watched every highlight video I could find plus Jones' possessions in a good statistical performance from his lead guard sophomore year (in the Sun Belt tourney against Appalachian State) and a poor one from his more off-ball-focused junior year (also in the conference tourney against ASU).

After taking all that in, I love this pickup for Michigan even more than I did initially. Jones should be a productive starter or sixth man who can play both guard spots and generate offense.

His scoring near the hoop is his standout trait. According to hoop-math, Jones shot 61% at the basket over the last two seasons despite receiving assists on only 31% of those made shots, a fantastic mark for a below-the-rim 6'1 guard. 

	Shots at rim	Made at rim	Ast'd at rim	Shots 2pt J	Made 2pt J	Ast'd 2pt J	Shots 3pt	Made 3pt	Ast'd 3pt
2020-21	140	87	32	62	26	5	131	47	39
2019-20	171	104	27	83	44	8	125	37	24

Whether playing off ballscreens, beating closeouts, cutting off the ball, or attacking in transition, Jones tends to find his way to the hoop or close to it—a lot of those "two-point jumpers" are runners from close to the restricted area. He's a crafty finisher who contorts his body to create angles for his shot and draw contact from defenders. He can finish through that contact, even from bigger defenders, and he'll make his fair share of circus shots. He possesses, both by look and statistics, one of the best floaters in the country:

He gets downhill off the pick-and-roll and knows how to manipulate a screen; he's got a good feel for when to turn down the pick because the defense is overplaying it. While his passing numbers out of the high screen haven't been great, he's shown the ability to make some advanced reads/passes:

He's generally only been on the court with one or two shooters and nobody approaching a roll threat, which won't be the case at Michigan. I think he's capable of being a Big Ten lead guard, even if Michigan only asks him to carry that load some of the time.

Jones has a workable pull-up jumper if defenses go under the screen, though because it's more set shot than jump shot he needs room to get it off (see above). Hopefully the coaches will eliminate some of his more audacious three-point attempts—he had some contested hoists in this year's ASU tourney game that'd get him pulled at Michigan. He's capable of hitting stepbacks but I doubt that's a shot Howard wants him taking often.

As a spot-up shooter, Jones has latent potential, and his numbers look better when you add in the non-DI games from this season (a three-pointer is still the same distance, after all), which raises his three-point percentage to a solid 37 on decent volume (50-for-136 in 26 games). His free throw marksmanship indicates his outside shot should be pretty good but his offensive surroundings have made it tough to evaluate. The form is consistent enough that I think he can get into that 35-38% range with decent shot selection:

He shot above-average on jumpers last year even though 60% of his catch-and-shoot attempts were contested. His low, out-in-front release means he needs room; he should have more of that in Michigan's offense and they won't require him to force nearly as many shots.

I suspect, with more talent around, he'll reel in his game like Smith did last year. There are some flashy pass attempts gone awry that may stick in his game and he occasionally got caught off-guard when teams sent help and were able to strip the ball on drives. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar transition period as Smith had while Jones gets accustomed to driving into bigger, better defenders.

Jones is a terror in transition, grading out between good and elite on Synergy the last two seasons when including passes. He gets a lot of free points because of steals but also can score when the degree of difficulty goes much higher:

His plus defensive rebounding contributes to his transition game; he'll rip and run, and I'm guessing Howard will encourage that as long as he isn't forcing bad shots in traffic—Jones is very good at converting transition oppportunities into quality shots or free throw attempts.

Evaluating defense is a tougher task in general, especially when working with limited full-game video, and Coastal played a lot of zone against ASU with some untranslatable junk—Michigan is never gonna resort to a box-and-one—that didn't hold any value from an evaluation perspective. I don't see any reason why Jones can't be part of a good defense at Michigan, especially after Smith proved passable on that end of the floor in Howard's system. Jones has good size and strength for a point guard and doesn't look deficient in terms of lateral movement. 

It appears Howard wants Jones in that lead playmaking role. From London's 247 article again [emphasis mine]:

“They had a great year last year. I spoke with their guard/leader Mike Smith who's leaving and he said great things. He was in the same situation as me coming in from a smaller school and he made a big impact. Also talking with Juwan Howard, Howard Eisley, Saddi Washington, Phil Martelli just the whole coaching staff having a great conversation. They showed me how I can help and how I can contribute right away. I liked [s]eeing the film and picking Juwan Howard's brain and him picking my brain. I feel like that would be a great fit if I chose that school.”

“I had a zoom call with Michigan yesterday which went well. Watching the history behind Michigan and the legacy is crazy. It's unbelievable at times thinking about how Juwan Howard wants me to be a part of his team. Coming from where I come from I never thought a guy like Juwan Howard would want me at his school running his team. He told me he wants me to come in and run his team. He said how they have one of the best recruiting classes and he wants me to come in and help the freshman guys and be a leader right away.”

That's his best fit on this roster. He provides both a sturdier floor and a higher ceiling for the team. Now it's all about settling into a new role. Given Jones has already changed his game to serve his team once in his career, he should be able to do it again.

VIDEO

Senior season midseason highlights:

Shorter version of the same:

Sophomore highlights:

Single-game reel against a top-150 Wofford squad:

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

While you never know with up-transfers, I don't think Jones is coming to Michigan to be a backup, and he can be a plus starter in the Big Ten. His skill set is an excellent complement to that of Eli Brooks, while the versatility of both guards should make it easier for Howard to work his younger charges into the rotation. The depth chart should look something like this, though the rotation obviously won't include all 14 scholarship players (and will feature multiple players getting time at different positions):

PG	SG	SF	PF	C
D. Jones	E. Brooks	C. Houstan	B. Johns	H. Dickinson
F. Collins	K. Bufkin	I. Barnes	T. Williams	M. Diabate
Z. Jackson	A. Nunez	J. Howard	W. Tschetter

Michigan already had a potential Final Four team; Jones solidifies that projection. Bart Torvik's 2022 projections had Michigan at #5 in the country before the Jones addition. His rostercast tool allows us to see the projection with Jones in the fold:

Second in the country sounds good. Torvik's projections see Jones settling into a lower-usage role (17%) and being a highly efficient offensive player (122 O-Rating, highest on the team) while playing 70% of the team's minutes.

I had Michigan in their own tier atop the Big Ten before Jones committed. I don't see that outlook changing before the season. Jones gives the team an experienced scoring and playmaking threat at guard and a disruptive defender who can afford to take a few chances with a towering frontcourt defending the rim. This season should be every bit as exciting as we've anticipated.