Michigan got a quarterback commit from California. No, not that one—Maalik Murphy wasn't going to be in the class right after JJ McCarthy. Not AJ Duffy, the IMG kid McCarthy pushed aside. Nor is it Nate Johnson, the QB they were zeroed in on until he suddenly committed to Utah. And not the 4-star Cal commit we’ve been talking about—Justyn Martin has a new crystal ball from an Ole Miss guy but otherwise hasn’t moved. And no, it's not that Boise State commit, Katin Houser, that MSU is recruiting hard and I wanted Michigan to take a look at. But this guy was an MSU target as well, and also ranked above Houser, barely.

GURU RATINGS

Rivals	ESPN	247	247 Comp
3*, 5.7, NR Ovr, #19 Pro, #26 CA	4*, 83, #163 Ovr, #9 Pro, #17 West, #11 CA	3*, 89, #330 Ovr #17 QB, #34 CA	4*, .9045, #267 Ovr, #19 QB, #19 CA
3.91	4.38	3.97	4.05

That averages out to a 4.02 on my scale, placing him below Cade McNamara (4.11) and Joe Milton (4.10), and just above Nate Holdren (4.07), Alex Malzone (4.07), and John Navarre (4.04). Like Milton, ESPN is much higher on him than the other two services, which is usually a bad sign.*

Denegal started out among the cycle’s national elites, but by the time the QB dominoes began falling last spring, he was suspiciously absent from the conversation. Last April 24/7 dropped him from a 90 (4-star) to an 89. Michigan, who'd been focused on Nate Johnson since the dominoes, suddenly expanded its board in June. They caught Denegal in a camp, had him and his dad up for an unofficial visit and throwing session, offered, and Denegal accepted just like that. Word is Michigan State isn't all that upset about it.

There's probably a good reason for all the falling rankings at the two sites that do reevaluations. It's probably the reason it looks like on the surface. It might also have something to do with ESPN saying he’s 6-5/230, while the other two sites agree on 6-4/215, while insiders report he was playing an unsanctioned club football season closer to 240.

*[I had to go through 15 guys ESPN was most bullish on relative to the other two services before I found one—Josh Metellus—where they were right.]

[Hit THE JUMP for scouting, video, and the rest.]

SCOUTING

I kind of want to do this chronologically, if you’ll bear with me through the epic. As of February 24, 2020, Denegal was a fixture at every Western QB event, and drew plenty of attention at the Pylon 7v7 championship, as well as offers from Georgia, Utah, Arkansas, and Colorado, to go with the one from Auburn, his first. He was making some kid Cristian Dixon look really good.

As the class rankings solidified a few weeks later, Denegal was a top-250 player, the #11 QB, and 229th overall to 24/7, who described him as “a big pocket passer with the ability to make downfield throws off of play action and designed rollouts.”

He shot up considerably from there. By last September he was a top-100 prospect, 90th overall, and talking about Arkansas and Michigan State showing him love, though the Spartisans were wary of Utah because Denegal’s brother went there.

The 6-foot-4, 215-pound Denegal describes himself as: "A pocket passer but I can take off."

He was the last guy mentioned out of 17 after the Elite 11 Regional in El Camino, CA last November:

Big bodied signal caller who can get the ball down the field and throws the deep ball with touch and accuracy as well. '

Denegal’s quarterback trainer Danny Hernandez, who has relationships with Gattis and Weiss, described his trainee’s weird junior season, or seasons, because Denegal was winning more California titles per year than any guy since Stanford, San Jose State, and Lowell High School won their respective championships with the same head coach in 1900.

"This is a weird offseason with COVID. He had a successful season. He played in a rogue spring league and went undefeated. Once they started playing in California, he led his team to an undefeated season as well."

EJ Holland shared Denegal played that season “north of 230 pounds” (video) according to EJ Holland:

Everyone’s talking about him being a high ceiling guy, but he also has a high floor. He trains with Danny Hernandez who’s one of the top quarterback trainers in the country, so mechanically he’s fine. He has the big arm. He’s a guy that has a high IQ; he’s going to be a contributor to the quarterback room in general. Michigan wanted an upside prospect with an appealing athletic profile, and that’s, for the most part, what they got in Denegal.

In March the dominoes began to fall. Before the end of the month, 15 of the top 20 quarterbacks in the country were off the board and Denegal was now now the #11 pro-style and #264 overall to 24/7. The rest were guys with questionable offers, like the top-100 QB from Kentucky who’s going to Rutgers. By April Denegal was the #12 Pro-style, #18 QB overall, on the edge of falling out of the top 250, and had some crystal balls to Michigan State. This evaluation by UCLA’s “BRO STAFF” after a workout with the Bruins is enlightening:

Denegal has the frame of a prototypical pocket quarterback, with wide shoulders and a sturdy base. He showed an inconsistent delivery throughout the day, and it was noticeable how far he would cock the ball behind his head as part of his elongated throwing motion. Denegal looked flat-footed at times during the footwork drills and when taking drops, and struggled to find his balance and throw off his front foot when on the move. This inconsistency continued during the one-on-ones, as he was able to connect on some shorter passes but nearly had one deep throw intercepted after underthrowing his receiver.

Earlier this month he hit up a 24/7 camp in LA and finished just outside the top ring:

Jayden Denegal, '22, Apple Valley (Calif.) had a good day and just missed making our top five. Physically, he has leaned out and dropped over 10 pounds since last year and physically looks good. He's a very consistent thrower, accurate down the field and threw one of the best deep balls in the camp. He just threw for UCLA and heads to the MW tonight and will camp with Northwestern and Michigan early this week.

Alpha dog was a soft Boise State commit that MSU is looking at, followed by Texas commit Maalik Murphy and Nate Johnson, then two 5-11 guys and an Oregon State commit. Denegal did not make the Elite 11 finals roster.

UCLA’s 24/7 guy Tracy Pierson elaborated($):

We were told that Denegal measured at 6-5 recently. To his credit, he's improved his body in the last year, trimming some weight, going from 225-ish to a much better-looking 215-ish now. The thinner Denegal moves easier than he used to, clearly, so the weight loss helped. He's still on the thicker side…

Denegal's motion is a longer one, with him taking the ball back pretty far and taking a little longer to come out of his hand. It's not a quick release, while it is smooth and seamless. He throws a nice ball, spins it well, and showed nice accuracy Sunday and a catchability to his throws. He does tend to release the ball a little early his motion at times, which can make the ball sail a little once in a while. His arm strength is good -- on the higher end -- while he showed nice touch and feel for when to take something off. In going through cones, he showed some improvement in his agility, but he's still not greatly quick. His action from when he takes a snap and gets the ball off -- with the slightly slower feet and the long motion -- takes some time. But he seems more agile and quicker being slimmer now.

And this came with video:

Jayden Denegal throwing at Elite 11 Regional pic.twitter.com/kiaT8QmhV4

— Greg Biggins (@GregBiggins) June 6, 2021

Recently he threw for the Michigan coaches, first Matt Weiss at the Redlands camp, then Jim Harbaugh in Ann Arbor, with a session in East Lansing the day before. Holland admits Denegal “didn’t have many options to choose from outside of Michigan.”

24/7’s Western analyst Greg Biggens offered his analysis:

Denegal is a pure pocket passer with a nice natural feel for the position. He understands throwing with timing and anticipation. He’s able to change speeds, shows touch and is one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the region. He’s been one of the state’s most productive quarterbacks since his sophomore year and is little better athlete then given credit for. He’s not a super twitchy kid but isn’t a statue either. He has good arm strength, can get the ball down the field and has improved mechanically in getting the ball out quicker with less of a windup. He’s a 4.0 student off the field and shows a cerebral nature between the lines as well. He’s someone we think can come in and pickup a complex playbook quicker then the majority of incoming quarterbacks. He’s a worker who spends a ton of time on his game and we have seen the improvements, even in the last few months.

He later added Denegal has huge hands before sharing the thoughts of QB coach Danny Hernandez:

"He had an up and down junior year but has really come on and I like the changes he has made to his body and you're seeing him play with a lot more suddenness right now. He's a pure thrower and he's a really smart kid. He's a 4.0 student and has football intelligence too. He can pick up things quickly and I think he's a kid who will go in to a college, learn the playbook quickly and be ready to compete right away."

Rivals EJ Holland also spoke to Hernandez about what Michigan saw($):

"He played this last season too heavy. He played at 227. At that weight, he lost his twitch and explosion. We've focused on slimming down. He's at 213 right now. His body looks good. His throws are cleaner. This offseason, a big focus will be getting more twitchy and sudden. He has a big arm and is smart, so we're trying to add athleticism while staying mechanically sound. That's the goal."

Areas for improvement were mobility, tightening that release, speeding everything up, and losing more weight.

HIGH SCHOOL

Denegal is the only 3*+ in the Rivals era to come from Apple Valley, a desert town on the opposite side of the mountains from Los Angeles proper. If you were the kind of idiot who rented a Tesla to drive from Pasadena to Vegas, you might end up that way by thinking a road called “Happy Trails Highway” will take you to a charging station. Just, you know, hypothetically. Not even a person named Jason could be that dumb.

Other "Team Dime LA” quarterbacks to work with Hernandez since he got his program underway a few years ago include PSU’s Micah Bowens, and Ryan Hilinski, the South Carolina transfer who’s probably going to start at Northwestern this year.

The “rogue league” was called the Champions League club tackle football league, and the inaugural championship went to double overtime.

STATS

Denegal's junior stats are harder to come by but he reportedly threw for 2,260 yards (11.5 yards per attempt) and 34 touchdowns against eight interceptions as a sophomore. Needless to say we'll be keeping an eye on his senior year production.

FAKE 40 TIME

His Hudl page lists a 4.9, which is probably however many seconds this is:

I’m just guessing, but it gets FIVE fakes out of five because I've seen the footage, and the first rule in fudgy stats is a ".9" means they want your brain to consider the first digit and pay no attention to the rest.

VIDEO

This is a reel from the Champions League:

Single game reels and a few more muti-game ones, plus his junior and sophomore Apple Valley highlights are on his Hudl page.

ETC

Owns a baby tortoise, who will probably outlive all of us.

Today: 4 miles ran, 1 hour stretch, lower body work with @GavinHambrick, 1 hour QB work with @WidenerJeff and still did a little remodeling for my tortoise. Desert lifestyle. pic.twitter.com/Y11lfyrQLg

— Jayden Max Denegal (@jdtothemax22) April 28, 2020

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Five-star quarterback recruits tend to cast a shadow, at least here. After Drew Henson committed they settled for John Navarre and Andy Mignery in the class after, and Jermaine Gonzalez in the class after that. Henne was followed by Antonio Bass, whom we planned to move to receiver, and 3-star Jason Forcier, with David Cone the class after that. Before the whole Rich Rod thing went down, Ryan Mallett’s shadow begat John Weinke and Georgia Tech transfer Steven Threet. Shane Morris committed so early to the class of 2013 he cast a shadow in 2012, and three-star Wilton Speight was lined up for the class after him.

That’s what we’re doing here. Sometimes you need a polished guy with a great smile in hopes he can put your program on its back, and sometimes you need a good solid fellow behind him you can trust to do the thing he does well.

The funny (not funny) thing is the guys who committed in the shadow of a five-star often found tons of playing time available. Things happen in football, way too quickly for you to guess what the future beholds based on something as ephemeral as the current depth chart. One minute you're fighting with Mignery to be the redshirt freshman who gets to sit behind Drew Henson until they bring in the next Henson to compete for your job in 2002. The next, Henson is hobbling into Pizza Bob's on crutches wearing a Yankees workout shirt while you're standing in the middle of the Rose Bowl trying to lead a comeback. Life comes at you fast, especially when you live in Michigan's quarterbacks room.

Michigan was circling in on Nate Johnson this class after a lot of other targets went off the board, but wasn't willing to do whatever Utah was to seal it. I loved the Johnson offer because of the positional flexibility and the Denard things. Remaining options were prying Justyn Martin out of a Cal commitment, or the academically minded Alabama kid, Conner Harrell, who's been talking to UNC much longer. In this case I believe the Spartans who said they cooled on Denegal, because the other schools did too, and as much as we make fun of them, if this was a guy Mel Tucker wanted for the centerpiece of his class I think Denegal wouldn't be committing on the offer from Michigan. I don’t know what Michigan's thinking was exactly, but I have a pretty good guess that the coaches decided they needed a guy who’ll stick around and be a backup for awhile in case they need a guy to not be a backup.

Those searching for a reason to keep calling him a 4-star are focusing on the recent weight loss, but I'm too well versed in my FQB history to think that would be an issue unless the guy is literally Jared Lorenzen. Belleville's quarterback I would believe it. But Denegal is a Navarre. A Speight. A guy who gets half-disparaging remarks in preview magazines for a few years until you’ve convinced yourself you’re dead meat if they get to him, and then it turns out he’s kind of alright. Navarre is the closer comparison when we’re talking about long windups and no mobility, but an accurate hose and the right brain and demeanor to use it appropriately…eventually. Like Navarre, he's deliberate, understated, and intelligent. He's probably not going to game you to wins on his own, but (as long as you don't throw him against UCLA in year 2) also the type who won't lose you games. If you surround that guy with a lot of talent he will let you access it, the way Navarre's brain allowed them to run Air Raid "sight reads" (option routes) to great effect with Braylon Edwards and Jason Avant. The dumb fans who blamed Navarre for not being Henson tragically became a part of Navarre's story as well. They were also blaming the last non-Denard quarterback to lead Michigan to a win over Ohio State, and last non-Henne to win the Big Ten.

Speight is a good comp too because neither he nor Denegal is trying to put a hole in his receivers' chests. Worst case scenario you get David Cone, whom nobody who reads this blog will complain about. Best case scenario, you’ve got a smart, developmental California quarterback who won't be scrolling through other FBS teams' depth charts when he finds himself sitting between a third-year McCarthy and (Denard willing) true freshman Dante Moore in a few years.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

They could take another quarterback with different skills but they’re probably going to rest here and focus on the rest of their targets. They’ll also keep up pursuit of their 2023 whale, 5-star Detroit King QB Dante Moore, who already knows Denegal well from the QB circuit. Michigan’s also upped their California presence since bringing back Courtney Morgan, and have lately been trying to move up in the eyes of San Diego CB Jahlil Florence and ATH Jalil Tucker, while staying in contact for some Southern California elites in 2023.