Previously: Ohio State Offense 

After getting mauled by the Michigan offense last season to the tune of 487 total yards and 297 rushing yards, the Ohio State defense has a lot to prove tomorrow. Ryan Day went out in the offseason and hired Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State to be the new defensive coordinator, amid a litany of staff shakeups to engineer a turnaround. So far the results have been good, as the Buckeyes have stitched together a stellar season thus far on defense, ranking 10th in SP+ defensive's metrics. However, none of that will matter until the Buckeyes do enough on defense in the Shoe to get a win over Michigan, and that's why this defensive unit merits a closer look. 

The Film: The caliber of offensive play in the B1G this season can best be described as "wretched"... by my estimation there are around five offenses that I would term above average for college football writ large: Michigan/Ohio State, Purdue, PSU, and Maryland. OSU can't play themselves and obviously haven't played Michigan. They also avoided Purdue in the crossover games, leaving us to choose between Penn State and Maryland. Neither are great comps. for Michigan stylistically but I think Penn State is a bit closer, so I went with them, although I also drew from the highlights of the Maryland game. In addition, I lifted some tape from the Northwestern game as well, as the Wildcats had rather surprising rushing success against OSU and it could be useful. 

Personnel: Click for big or here for PDF. 

Ohio State runs a base 4-2-5 and rolls with it consistently down-to-down. That means generally two defensive tackles and two EDGE guys. The DTs are a revolving door of players, with Taron Vincent being given the "solid" designation on our diagram in the context of this defense (note: rotation is pretty common at many positions on the defense). He has played 410 snaps while the next four DTs have all played between 165 and 244 snaps. Those players are, in order of snap count, Ty Hamilton, Michael Hall Jr., Tyleik Williams, and Jerron Cage. The reason for such heavy rotation is they're mostly just guys. Despite being the most used, Vincent has the lowest PFF grade... he treaded water in my grading against PSU. Cage was my highest graded in that game yet is the least used. Williams had a good showing as well in limited snaps, while I was pretty down on Hall. I don't think there's a major difference between any of these players from what I've seen. 

At EDGE Ohio State still has the blue chippers, and the seeds are starting to sprout. One-time Michigan recruiting white whale Zach Harrison has finally put together a star-level season. I don't think he's a superstar, but he came out well in my grading in both run defense and pass rush and I think his caliber of play is perhaps analogous to someone like Mike Morris on Michigan. Opposite him is most commonly former 5* JT Tuimoloau, who gets the unique "half-star" designation, starred in pas rush but at that level of play in run defense. His big game against PSU (which I charted) made him the Dangerman for this week, though I'm not convinced he's this defense's best player. Rather, I just have the flashiest tape of him. Knowles likes to rotate EDGE guys too, meaning the second stringers merit conversation. Javontae Jean-Baptiste is back and is a solid player, while another former 5* Jack Sawyer is the other player to mention. Sawyer and Tuimoloau are both are tasked with dropping into coverage from time to time when OSU drops eight. 

Fixing Ohio State's linebackers was objective #1 for Knowles and he's done a decent job of it. Tommy Eichenberg has turned into a stellar player this season and receives a star. I don't think he's Butkus Award candidate, but his run fits were pretty stout and when he's told to run really fast and hit, he excels. Steele Chambers, on the other hand, is someone I'm less impressed by. He did not grade out terribly well in my PSU numbers and the tape I saw from other contests, combined with the PFF grades, was enough to put the lone starter cyan on him. I think Chambers is much better than he was last season, but he had a long way to go... not at "good" level yet. Eichenberg and Chambers are two of only three Buckeyes who seldom leave the field, but if either do exit, look for Cody Simon to come on. 

The five DBs feature a pair of outside corners in Denzel Burke and Cameron Brown. Burke is a returning starter who suited up as a true freshman last season for OSU. I'm not sure he's made huge strides as a sophomore but injuries may have gotten in the way. Burke has missed a couple games this season but returned to log 55 snaps against Maryland, so he should be all set to go. Brown had more extended injury troubles, exiting against Michigan State and not returning until Indiana and not playing a starter's workload until last weekend. I think both Burke and Brown are fine, but they are definitely not a vintage OSU CB tandem (think Okudah/Arnette or Conley/Lattimore). JK Johnson played quite a bit in the absence of Brown and it did not go well, with Johnson being OSU's worst defensive player in my estimation against Penn State. True freshman Jyaire Brown has gotten some spot duty as well and his PFF grades are decent. Jordan Hancock has played here and there and has not been good either. In other words, OSU really prefers to have Burke/Brown on the field because the other options are either bad, inexperienced, or both. 

OSU rolls with three "safeties", all given fancy names by Jim Knowles. At "nickel safety" is Tanner McCalister, a transfer who Knowles brought with him from the other OSU. He's been alright, as he was in the Big 12. Not cyan level but not quite "good" either. The other two safeties are pretty good. Those would be "adjuster" (free safety) Ronnie Hickman and "bandit" (strong safety) Lathan Ransom. Hickman is OSU's leader in snaps on the season, an every-down horse who has been very good in coverage and pretty solid in run defense as well. Ransom also plays an awful lot and has received stellar PFF grades in addition to a solid outing in my PSU charting. I didn't quite think he was star level but both Hickman and Ransom can play. The starters on the back-end are definitely stronger than the cover corners for the Buckeyes. Though Hickman and Ransom don't leave the field much, if they do, Cameron Martinez or veteran Josh Proctor will probably come on. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Is the OSU defense fixed?]

Base set: Ohio State runs a 4-2-5 on the vast majority of plays so this is a pretty boring section. Here's the base set: 

Sometimes OSU uses that stand-up EDGE spot most often played by Jack Sawyer to wander around like a pseudo-LB, more closely resembling a 3-3-5, even if the personnel is 4-2-5: 

That's all I've really got in terms of formation notes. 

Man or zone coverage: Ohio State has mixed some coverages this season but have generally played off-Cover 1, meaning they give the CBs (often) sizable cushion, as opposed to playing press man. This puts them in the man bucket, although Tampa 2 and Cover 3 are in the arsenal and will be used to mix it up. 

Pressure: The PSU game represented a rather fascinating case study for the Ohio State defense, as they were remarkably normal- neither blitzy nor drop(y). They rushed more than four players on just 9% of snaps, and sent fewer than four players on a nearly identical 8% of snaps. Which of course means that they rushed exactly four on 83% of snaps I charted against PSU, a remarkably high number within the context of this season's opponents for Michigan. I would have loved to chart another game to get a feel for if this was an isolated gameplan or a broader trend. What I will note is that the occasional tendency to drop eight into coverage and rush three is something they have done from time to time this season, so that extends beyond opponent-specific gameplan. 

Dangerman: This was a rather sticky one for me because I don't think there's an obvious answer the way there often is, like with Marvin Harrison Jr. on offense. I think the safeties are good, but it's hard to put a safety here because you rarely get highlight reel tape of them. I like Eichenberg the LB but didn't think he quite fit, so I was between the starting EDGEs. Ultimately I went with JT Tuimoloau, even though he was only a half-star on the diagram. I know it's a bit odd but 1) he turned in an all-time God-Mode performance in the game I charted (so I have plenty of tape) and 2) I think he is by far the most high ceiling player on the defense. If I anticipate any OSU player going crazy tomorrow and playing a game for the ages, it's Tuimoloau over Zach Harrison. So let's dig in. 

Tuimoloau was the #4 national prospect in the 2021 class at any position, who committed to OSU in the summer of 2021, only a month before arriving on campus for his true freshman season. I remember watching for him last season when scouting Ohio State because of the immense recruiting hype and came away extremely disappointed. Tuimoloau didn't just look like a freshman, he looked outright bad. This year? He's made a leap to Dangerman. He has turned into a strong pass rusher for OSU: 

#44 to bottom of the line

That strip sack did come against PSU's black-hole RT, but it was still impressive to see. Lining up opposite Zach Harrison on many plays, those two can form a plus pass-rushing team, one that gave Penn State some problems. We saw it in the previous clip and it's on display here, forcing Clifford to scramble short of the sticks: 

#44 to bottom of the line

What makes Tuimoloau special as an EDGE prospect is his athleticism. He's got long arms and is a real athlete, one you cannot let get into space unchecked. Penn State dialed up a game plan rife with WR screens that often asked Clifford to throw horizontally and when it targeted Tuimoloau's edge, his long arms were a major problem. The pick six he snatched is not a great decision from Clifford with Tuimoloau in the way, but it's also a hell of an athletic play, the leap, snag, and return for a TD: 

He also forced an INT that was snagged on the deflection by Zach Harrison, one occurring in nearly identical fashion: 

Tuimoloau's athleticism allows OSU to drop him into coverage and have it be plausible. Clifford threw him a different INT on a play where Tuimoloau was in coverage on RB Kaytron Allen. Ignore Clifford missing several open receivers who would've gotten a first down and enjoy the athleticism, closing speed, and ability to snag the ball on the dive: 

#44 to bottom of the line

Tuimoloau is still a year away from true superstar status in your author's opinion, but he's now showcasing what the physical gifts can provide him. We'll get into the weaknesses later, but Tuimoloau's strengths allow him to cause havoc in the passing game either through pass-rush, batted ball ability with his arms and leaping ability, or in coverage using his innate athleticism. His performance against PSU, 2 INTs (1 TD), 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and two sacks was an all-time defensive performance and it's what nets him the Dangerman label. 

 

Overview

For this section I want to go through OSU's defense level through level, talking about what I saw in the following three categories: 

1. Pass rush 
2. Coverage 
3. Run defense 

After that, we'll tie it together and talk about a game plan to solve the Buckeye defense. 

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PASS RUSH 

Ohio State has a stable of hyper-talented pass rushers, as they always do. Each of Zach Harrison, Jack Sawyer, and the aforementioned Tuimoloau were 5*s, with the latter two being top-of-the-national-class 5*s. This gives Ohio State a quality pass rush, but I do not personally see it on a level akin to say, Michigan having Hutchinson and Ojabo last year. Harrison is a good player having his best year in college but he is not an elite NFL pass rush talent like the Bosas or Chase Young (his draft stock is generally 2nd round range). I like him more as a well-rounded EDGE than a pure pass rush demon personally, but when matched up against Maryland's OTs, he got some highlight reel moments:

EDGE #9 to bottom of line 

He and Tuimoloau are a formidable duo of pass rushers, likely the best that Michigan has seen all season, but that does not mean they are world-destroyers. Tuimoloau may well get there next year, but isn't quite there yet. I'd still chip him pretty consistently with a TE just to help out, but I feel fine about Harrison vs. Ryan Hayes given what we saw last year. Harrison is better this year than last but not dramatically so and his pass rush isn't necessarily the part of his game that got better (his PFF pass rush grade is actually lower this year than last). 

I don't have too much on Sawyer as a pass rusher, but he got to eat some against Penn State too, with a couple good rushes on one drive in particular. Here he brutalizes that PSU RT spot (no surprise, but still) and forces Clifford to jack it up: 

#33 to the bottom of the line

A great diving catch by Parker Washington should not take away a nice rush from Sawyer. 

I anticipate that Ohio State will get some organic pressure from their EDGE guys against Michigan's tackles at points throughout the game but I don't expect it to be a constant assault on JJ McCarthy. They're just not quite there yet in terms of developing their sophomore blue chippers. The DTs are nothing to write home about as pass rushers, but Tyleik Williams is their best interior pass rusher in my viewings, getting free several times against the Nittany Lions, including in the above Sawyer clip. They use a stunt here to get home with Williams and Jerron Cage but these interior rush clips were not common against PSU: 

Not great coverage from KJ Johnson while we're at it!

OSU was not blitzy at all against PSU but they have displayed a tendency to go with all-out 7-man pressures here and there. They dialed two up against the Nittany Lions and then used one here against Maryland to force a punt: 

Michigan should be ready for that curveball.

They also threw one corner blitz at PSU with Denzel Burke getting a free rush at Clifford before blowing the sack (though he did force an incompletion): 

In summation, there are talented EDGE rushers who are good to very good but no one who is so dominant that it needs to be the focus of the gameplan. The interior pass rush has its moments but they are not common developments, and Knowles did not show a tendency to blitz against PSU. I'd expect more blitzes tomorrow because it's The Game, but OSU also doesn't appear likely to be among the blitziest opponents Michigan has seen this season. JJ should be ready for the occasional send-the-house pressure, or a free corner/safety rushing here or there, but Knowles is also not Dr. Blitz from what I charted. Michigan will be tested in various ways to protect McCarthy but if this looks like the 2017 Michigan OL in front of Brandon Peters, OSU will be doing something I did not see on the tape (adjusting for the quality of OL that the Wolverines have). 

 

COVERAGE 

This is where things get interesting to me, and the biggest question I have on this side of the ball is whether OSU moves from off-man to press man against Michigan. The Maize & Blue receivers have had their struggles getting open in the second half of the season, having problems at times against press coverage, while the Buckeyes rarely played press-man in the games I saw. When in their base Cover 1 shell, the corners are often stationed 5-10 yards off the line of scrimmage. This makes some sense in different situations, but I was also rather confused by it in other moments. Like say, this 3rd & 8: 

Why is the DB (Denzel Burke) stapled to the line to gain and then dropping beyond it on 3rd down? That alignment has no chance of stopping this short of the first down so long as the throw is accurate. 

Similar story in this next clip, super soft coverage on the outside on 2nd & 4 and PSU decides to take what Ohio State is giving them:  

Perhaps the most baffling example came against Northwestern. This is a game played under extraordinarily gusty conditions, one in which Pat Fitzgerald showed the same aversion to throwing the football that he has for embracing cell phones as modern technology. Andrew Sullivan was the QB! And yet against that team, with their non-existent to anemic passing attack (they threw 17 total passes!!!), Ohio State was playing off-man coverage on 3rd & 8! 

It helps that Northwestern threw behind the sticks and dropped it anyway, but needless to say, I was a bit confused. Guarding against the deep bomb when you're lining up across from Rakim Jarrett, Dontay Demus, and Jacob Copeland? Sure. But against Northwestern in a tornado? Huh? 

Playing such coverage opened Ohio State up to plenty of underneath completions against Maryland in particular and given JJ McCarthy's accuracy on short stuff this season, I feel very good about Michigan's ability to exploit that if it's how OSU shows up playing pass defense tomorrow. Maryland did hurt the Buckeyes even with them playing off-man, using the electricity of their WRs to light them up a few times. Here's Jarrett on nickel Tanner McCalister: 

Replicable with Michigan's receivers? Idk, probably not. But you never know. All three of OSU's starting "corners", McCalister, Denzel Burke, and Cameron Brown have PFF coverage grades indicating "decent" more than "good" and I have clips of them getting beaten. I just showed you the McCalister one... here's Burke getting faded by Rutgers' Sean Ryan (my Dangerman that week): 

I had two isolated clips of that that week! Burke is pretty fast but he also got beaten last year in The Game a few times and has not always displayed the ball skills you'd like to see for star status. 

The true safeties are better than the corners in coverage but across the whole secondary, every time reserves come on, it doesn't go great. You already saw the KJ Johnson clip earlier... he was brutal against PSU. The little Jordan Hancock has played hasn't gone better and I have footage of backup S Cameron Martinez getting toasted by Jarrett. There were also some coverage busts between corners and the safeties in the PSU game, one such example costing them a TD: 

That's between Johnson and Ronnie Hickman I believe. I'm willing to chalk up some of that to Johnson not being ready for primetime and perhaps not important for The Game (OSU hopes to not play him much), but it is something to keep in mind. 

As I said, they do drop eight into coverage every so often, something I showed you in one of the Tuimoloau INT clips. I didn't think their drop eight coverages were terribly effective in covering receivers, but they do force the QB to make a decision. We saw JJ struggle with that some against Maryland and Clifford did on that INT. Here it is one more time: 

Clifford has receivers open past the sticks on both sidelines and yet throws it to a receiver with a defender close by behind the sticks. If I had to highlight the ways that an interception is most likely to happen in The Game, it would be OSU goading McCarthy into a mistake by making him have to pick a guy when they drop eight, or from a batted ball. The corners don't play tight enough for it to happen otherwise. Unless he misses a lurking safety/linebacker (as McNamara did last year), those other two paths seem most likely to me. 

In summary, I think Ohio State's coverage is okay, but I didn't come away particularly wowed. Taulia Tagovailoa was 26/36 for 293 yards (8.1 Y/A) with 2 TDs and 0 INTs last weekend. It was not a great showing for the Buckeye defense (worse than Michigan's did against Tualia) and it came with OSU's secondary finally at full health. I think their best approach to take on Michigan should be to go against tendency and not cede free yards underneath. Michigan will be looking more for McCarthy to connect drives through the air between rushing plays, not dissect the OSU defense via the pass. In other words, picking up 5-6 yards underneath may be all Michigan needs in the ideal game scenario, and OSU's defense as they have played against many teams, cedes that. I'd much rather trust my corners in press-man against Michigan's struggling WRs than give them a chance to get in rhythm by stapling my DBs down field. Unless of course they're putting a safety in the box and are scared of limited help deep..... 

 

RUN DEFENSE 

Speaking of putting a safety in the box, let's talk about run defense and how it matches up against Michigan's vaunted rushing offense. OSU made fixing the run defense a priority with Knowles at the helm and they've done well this season, holding opponents to only 107.9 rushing yards per game at 3.1 YPC. The fact of the matter is that it's hard to glean too much about OSU's run defense with respect to The Game from what they've displayed this season because they have not faced a run offense like Michigan's. This will be the final exam. 

From the games I consumed in detail, I think Ohio State's run defense is good but not overwhelming, and the combination of film and data makes me believe Michigan will be able to get yards on the ground (the question is how many, and how consistently). Of the three games I looked at, OSU's best performance was against Maryland unequivocally, holding Roman Hemby to 3.5 YPC, while Antwain Littleton II was down at 1.7 YPC over 7 carries. The other two were a bit choppier. It was a decent showing against PSU, with Kaytron Allen rushing for 6.3 YPC (a 27 yard run did help spike the average some) and Nick Singleton rushing for 3.2 YPC, but some wins here and there for the Nittany Lions. 

The game that really intrigues me is the Northwestern one. No one's idea of an offensive juggernaut and played in an odd weather environment, the Wildcats found a way to get both backs over 4 YPC without the threat of the pass and while staying true to their mascot name and dialing up the Wildcat on approximately 60% of their snaps (*note: not official data*). There wasn't much deception going on, running into loaded boxes, yet Evan Hull rushed at 4.1 YPC over 30 carries(!) with a long of 17, while Cam Porter rushed for 4.5 YPC on 11 carries with a long of 19. The tape reveals some wins in the trenches for the 'Cats and some areas for concern for Ohio State. 

Northwestern had success caving in the edge and then hitting linebackers (or letting linebackers get stuck on blocks): 

This isn't unlike what PSU did on their successful runs... here it's Tuimoloau who gets caved in (it was Harrison on the preceding play): 

Here's another one going after Tuimoloau, with Steele Chambers a bit late to figure out what's going on: 

These aren't flashy runs, but they are examples of ~5 yard pickups on standard downs, which is what Michigan wants. 

Back to Northwestern, here's one more going after the edge, with Harrison and backup LB Cody Simon, who's down on the line, getting stuck, Chambers has no idea what's going on and slams into the line, and then KJ Johnson blows the tackle for Northwestern's lone TD: 

The Wildcats alternated between running plays like that with zone reads for the QB Sullivan to find success on the ground. OSU's EDGEs crashed repeatedly and Sullivan was content to pull and pick up the first down several times. Here's one where Tuimoloau crashes, Sullivan pulls, and it's a 5 yard gain on 3rd & 2: 

We know that the JJ zone read is coming back out of the garage for The Game and based on the clips from the Northwestern game and the Maryland game, there's reason to think they can work as long as he makes the right reads. Here's Taulia Tagovailoa running for a TD off one such read: 

Maryland did well testing the sideline, either through the run game or through screens (particularly with misdirection), while I've shown you clips of Northwestern caving in the edge. But what about the interior? This is the big black box, because none of these opponents have Michigan's IOL, with the muscle and ability to maul with NFL talents. There were some plus signs for PSU. Here DT Mike Hall Jr. is shoved out of the way to open the hole to open a rushing lane for Allen, while the box safety and LB are stuck inside. Allen cuts it outside and it's a huge gain: 

And here's PSU grinding out six yards in a loaded box on a standard down via a double on Hall + a lineman getting to the next level to take out Chambers: 

These are morsels more than a code, but that's what we have to take when we don't have an analogy for Michigan's IOL. 

I have mostly been looking for the Death Star exhaust port here, so what does OSU do well in run defense? Well, when they keep LB Tommy Eichenberg clean, he's a player: 

MLB #35

And one from the Maryland game: 

MLB #35

On top of Eichenberg, the DTs were holding up more times than not, so that's a positive. But again, they were moved enough times for me to think Michigan should be able to get their wins. We don't really know until the game starts. 

I'd summarize this section by saying that Ohio State's run defense has been pretty good this year but we don't know how good until they go toe to toe with Michigan. When firing on all cylinders in mid-October, the Michigan run offense was the best of the best... some of the cool stuff has gone away since PSU but you know it's been saved for this game. We can't crown Jim Knowles as having solved the problem until we see his defense defeat the whole kitchen sink of complex run concepts that Jim Harbaugh has had saved for the past month while he's been running the same vanilla plays. I could show you plenty of examples of good run defense from OSU because there's been a lot of them; they're a good run defense! But I was looking for clues that they are beatable and I found enough for my liking.

Ohio State has kept their opponents (on the whole) to <4 YPC this season week in and week out. You know who else did that? Penn State. And they gave up 418 rushing yards and 7.6 YPC to Michigan. I'm not saying that will happen to OSU. It almost certainly won't. But the point is that small flaws against a team like Northwestern have the chance to turn into fatal Achilles heels against Michigan when we talk about run defense. I think there's enough on tape for Michigan to get their wins. But again, how many? And how consistently? 

 

Tying it all together

Ohio State has a good defense. They are far better organized and coordinated than last year. The linebackers have learned what a run fit is. They have talented pass rushers, solid corners, good safeties, and their DTs have held up overall this season, while one LB has grown into a very good player. If you expect Michigan to just pound Ohio State into pulp for the second straight year, I think that's probably too optimistic. There are not the glaring marks about this OSU defense that there were last year, like the Oregon game early in 2021. The numbers back it up: OSU has held all but two opponents to under 320 yards this season and all but two opponents to 21 points or fewer. 

On the other hand, I don't think this is a world-crushing OSU defense like they had in 2019. That unit had a top five pick at corner (and another first rounder opposite him) and a pass rusher many considered generational, in addition to good-to-great players at every level of the defense. This group is not there. They don't have a true "shutdown" corner and play them off for a reason. One of the LBs is still a bit suspect for me, the DTs don't have a "Dude", and the EDGE guys, while very good, are not Chase Young-level. The numbers back this up as well. The 2019 defense was not remotely challenged before playing Michigan (no one had even gained 300 yards against them!!). As for the 2022 group, the two opponents I mentioned in the previous paragraph who have gained >320 yards and scored >21 points are also the only two "good" offenses they've played, PSU (SP+ offense rank #21) and Maryland (#33). Those teams gained 482 and 402 yards and scored 31 and 30 points, respectively. There are vulnerabilities and strengths here. Now comes the ultimate test. 

 

The Game, fully previewed 

I realize that I'm not the guy at this site who writes the preview; that will come in a few hours from Brian. But I also have now poured 11,000 words over two pieces into scanning every inch of the Ohio State offense and defense, so I feel like I might as well give you my parting thoughts on this matchup. My overarching thought after stewing on The Game for several days is I think it will be a great football game and it should be highly competitive. These two teams are going to test each other in various ways and I'm not sure who will come out on top. 

When I started this week's film review, I went into it somewhat of the same mindset of last year, where sketching out a roadmap for beating Ohio State felt like putting together a plan to kill Voldemort. After doing the film review, I don't think I believe that this year. At this time last year it felt like Michigan would need a perfect game to come away with a win. This year I feel like the teams are more closely matched... Michigan will need to play very well, they'll need a stellar effort from McCarthy, the receivers to catch the dang ball, the secondary to limit busts, on and on, but I feel like these teams are of the same caliber, something I didn't feel was the case last year going in. Maybe it's the ghosts being gone from my brain, but SP+ does back me up on this. The gap in efficiency last year going into The Game was 8.3 in favor of OSU. This year it's 2.9. 

Ohio State did have the embarrassing loss to Oregon last season, but after making some mid-season defensive changes, were dominant the rest of the way until Michigan. They had a couple semi-competitive games against PSU/Nebraska but there was never a point at which it felt like OSU was in serious trouble after Oregon. This season they don't have a loss, yet were in dicey games against PSU (trailing in the 4th quarter on the road) and Maryland (Terps had the ball down 3 near midfield with 6 minutes left). Last year I was trying to take clues to assemble a "this is how Michigan could win!" argument. This year it's more like "replicate Penn State (a team you spanked relentlessly) except without the multiple crushing turnovers". Much more deliberate. 

Ohio State's got a great offense, but if Michigan can do well against the run, and the body of evidence from both teams suggests that they should, then I think they'll keep the OSU offense in the yard. Marvin Harrison Jr. will get his share, Stroud will make some ridiculous throws, maybe there'll be a bust here and there, but so long as Minter is comfortable mixing coverages and blitz packages and the run defense is PSU or Iowa level, I feel solid about Michigan's ability to keep Ohio State to a beatable point total. 

That's why it hinges on the Michigan O vs. OSU D for me. Everyone likes to focus on the run side of this matchup, but for me, I think it's more interesting to talk about the passing side. Obviously, if OSU were to somehow shut down the rushing game, as Illinois did in the second half last week, then Michigan's going to be in major trouble, but I don't think it's terribly likely. Illinois had a five-man DL with tons of beef and Michigan was playing its third and fourth string backs (hence why the Corum/Edwards injury status is so big). If the Wolverines have one of those guys active, they should get their wins on the ground. But whether they can convert in the red zone and string together the kinds of drives they want comes down to one JJ McCarthy and the WRs. Can they get open? Can JJ get them the ball accurately? And can they catch it? That for me is the ultimate X-Factor. And how Knowles decides to try and cover the receivers is the other half of it. Fascinating stuff. 

I'm not going to make a prediction because predictions are not a productive use of anyone's time. Who knows what's going to happen, but it figures to be a tremendous football game between two great teams. As I write this on thanksgiving, I can say that I am thankful for that and getting to watch this team this year and interacting with all of the fine people who comment on my pieces. Jim Harbaugh came back to Michigan to give us wins like last year, but more than anything, to give us the excitement we all feel today. To give us games like what tomorrow seems like it should be. All you can ask for is a reasonable shot going into Columbus. I'm thankful for that and will be proud of this team no matter what, because my job would be a hell of a lot less fun if Rich Rod or Brady Hoke were still the coach. Now that that's out of the way, there's only one thing left to say: 

Beat Ohio.