Michigan heads out on the road for the final time in the 2023 season on Saturday, heading to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins. The crowd will presumably be filled with Michigan fans as the Terps haven't given their side a ton to cheer about this season. The team is 6-4 and bowl eligible, which is nice, but hopes for a 9 or even 10 win season (with an upset or bowl win) have crumbled to pieces due to disappointing losses against Illinois and Northwestern. Does Maryland's offense have much left in the tank to threaten the Wolverines this weekend? Let us find out: 

The Film: The two best defenses Maryland has played this season are Penn State and Ohio State. While the PSU game was more recent, I opted for OSU because 1) The Game is next week and we need to continue to compile advance scouting and 2) Maryland's showing was much better against the Buckeyes than the Nittany Lions and I am a firm believer in scouting teams at their best, not their worst.  

Personnel: Click for big.

Michigan will face Taulia Tagovailoa for the third straight season, the only opposing QB this season to accomplish that feat. Taulia is back and is more or less the same for the Terps, still capable of excellent, NFL-level throws and also terrible decisions. He's still scrambly and mobile, though he has seemed to regress back to his 2021 form somewhat, running backwards into more egregious sacks than he did last season. He is far from a perfect QB, but he's the best Michigan has seen this season by a country mile (not a high bar), which earns him the star. Last year we saw Tagovailoa come out of the game due to injury and that backup, Billy Edwards Jr., is still around. He has been used on wildcat short yardage packages this year, as an FYI. 

The running back position features the same characters as last year, with Roman Hemby still around as the starter and joined in the backfield by Antwain Littleton II and Colby McDonald in the rotation. I was a fan of Hemby's last year but I didn't see too much from him in this game to earn that status. He's not bad, just fine in my viewings this season. Blitz pickups have been an issue for him this season but he's still a speedy straight-line runner who also catches a fair number of balls out of the backfield. McDonald's 6.7 YPC clip is best on the team, though Littleton leads him in carries with 61. At 232, Littleton is the heavy back, while Hemby and McDonald are slimmer and quicker. 

After a few years of incredibly deep wide receiver rooms, this year's Maryland team is a bit thinner on the outside. They did return their statistical best receiver from last year, Jeshaun Jones, and have two other 500+ receiving yard receivers in Tai Felton and Kaiden Prather. The raw talent isn't as dynamic as years past when you had the likes of Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus, but these are three of the most prolific receivers in the conference, largely because Maryland is one of the only teams that attempts to throw the ball with regularity. I think Jones is the best of this group, not really a true star but pretty close to it. All three WRs are 6'1" or taller, so this week will give Michigan's pass defense some solid reps. Those three players get most of the snaps at wideout, but slot Octavian Smith and outside WR Tyrese Chambers mix in occasionally too. 

Maryland mostly plays with one TE, Corey Dyches. He has 42 catches, second on the team and only a nose behind Jones, acting as Tagovailoa's security blanket. Dyches is not a dynamic threat nor a leaper with size to be confused with Colston Loveland (Dyches is only 6'2), but he's rock solid at running a 5-10 yard route and sitting down in the zone for a quick completion. The other TE of note is Preston Howard, only 10 catches on the season as more of a blocking option. Most of his snaps come in Maryland's occasional 12 personnel sets. Neither Howard nor Dyches are particularly great blockers. 

My biggest concern with the Terrapin offense coming into the season was the offensive line after losing four starters off last year's squad and planning to fill them with low-level up transfers. Surprisingly, my fears have not quite come to pass. Let's be clear, the resulting OL has not been good, but it also hasn't been terrible, which was my baseline expectation. Delmar Glaze, last year's RT, is the lone returning starter and has shifted over to left. He's been alright, pretty good in the game I charted against OSU but very poor against the elite rush threats of PSU. 

The story of the Maryland OL has been rotation, as eight different linemen have played at least 290 snaps and started at least three games. Glaze at LT is the only player to start every game at the same spot, while the rest has been moving around. At C it's either Aric Harris or Teddy Purcell, but Harris is definitely the better of the two (Purcell started against OSU and was very poor). The RT is normally Gottleib Ayedze, a transfer from D2 Frostburg State who I had grave concerns about in the preseason. He's been better than I expected but is a long way from being good. Sometimes Ayedze slides to G when Andre Roye Jr. or Connor Fagan come in at tackle, both of whom are not ready for primetime.

The G spots have most frequently been NC Central transfer Corey Bullock (has played both LG/RG) and Amelio Moran, the latter of whom has been a weak spot for the "starting line". Another G in the mix is Kyle Long, who got extensive work against OSU and was bad. In other words, this line is a hodgepodge, rotating quite a bit but the best five linemen can generally hang in there. The more the dig into the depth, the worse it gets. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the clips]

Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: As usual, Maryland is running a pure spread offense. Every snap was shotgun against Ohio State: 

They were tilted more towards the pass in that game, which is a broad theme for Maryland this season. They have 389 pass attempts to 286 rushing attempts (sacks included), a combination of the offensive scheme, having a mobile senior QB, and having a jigsaw offensive line that is shuffling constantly. Breakdown of run vs. pass against OSU: 

Base set: Maryland is the usual spread offense stuff out of 11 personnel. Usually it's this: 

Or with the TE flexed: 

Because Hemby and McDonald can both catch balls out of the backfield, Maryland goes empty a decent amount too with the RB lined up out wide. Every so often they go to two TEs: 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Maryland ran mostly gap plays against Ohio State, fitting them into the MANBALL territory. They were predominantly pulling linemen from the backside, with different variations of power and counter being the go-tos. Split zone showed up occasionally, some inside zone too, but I identified more gap than zone and they had some decent success with those plays, even against a very good defense like Ohio State's. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: Maryland is a team with pretty deliberate pace, as they normally are. They peppered in a few tempo snaps against OSU but generally they were the usual "up to the line with 25 on the playclock and then wait for instructions" sort of team. No dragging their feet or huddling up really. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Each of the past two years that I've evaluated Taulia Tagovailoa, I've rated him a 7 on our Quarterback Dilithium scale. I will keep that the same this year because I don't think a whole lot has changed. Taulia remains a slippery QB who can wiggle out of the pocket and pickup valuable yards for his offense with the scramble. He did that for a TD against OSU: 

Maryland doesn't run Taulia often enough to justify rating him a 9 or a 10 on this scale, but they do give him reads and he showed a proficiency at executing the read, pulling to evade a crashing JT Tuimoloau repeatedly. The rest of the play isn't set up here but the parts Taulia can control are done well and show how his legs are part of the game plan: 

On the season, Tagovailoa has 58 rushing attempts in 10 games. Maryland has allowed 20 sacks this season, so you're looking at ~4 non-sack rush attempts per game, probably half being designed runs and half being scrambles. It's not a feature of the offense but it is in there and is vital in terms of picking up yards here and there to keep the operation going. The downside remains his pocket presence, which is still susceptible to the crushing -10 yard sack that sets the offense way behind the sticks. After seemingly cleaning it up last season following a 2021 year littered with those sorts of sacks, 2023 has been a return to the bad habits. Plays like this: 

That and the usage keep him at a 7 on the scale, but the athleticism, willingness to move, and slipperiness support the rating. Tagovailoa is a dual threat. 

Dangerman/HenneChart: Surprise! I'm combining these two sections into one because I'm not over the moon about anyone else on this offense in particular and also, it feels like the first QB with a pulse on the schedule ought to get to be the Dangerman too. I don't think Taulia is destined for the same sort of NFL draft slot (obviously) or career that his brother garnered, but he is the B1G's third-best QB (almost by default) and he gets the star. We just talked about his legs, now it's time to delve into his arm. 

His performance against Ohio State was charted into the following table below, which I will then compare to my previous two times charting Tagovailoa: 

2022:

2021: 

In terms of downfield success rate, these tables indicate that Taulia is worse than last year, which I think is probably true but his weapons are a bit worse and his OL is definitely worse, so that's a factor. Also, last year I charted him against non-Power 5 SMU who went 7-6, whereas this year I charted him against a 10-0 opponent with a top five defense. Quality of competition matters in these evaluations too. 

I don't think Taulia Tagovalioa is worse as a passer than when I charted him in the past, but I don't think he's a ton better either, especially compared to his 2022 self. He is still capable of making some excellent throws into tight windows that make you think he could play on Sundays. Here is one of a couple very nice backshoulder deliveries: 

But on the other side of the coin, he's still capable of doing this 

Most of the throws that Taulia made against Ohio State were pretty routine quick hitters. His first and second reads were good at getting themselves open against OSU's zone coverage and Taulia routinely flashed the ability to identify his open targets and get the balls out quickly and in rhythm to avoid any potential pass protection issues: 

Easy, quick, keeps the offense on schedule. Tagovailoa didn't throw a ton of balls deep down the field against OSU. His receivers weren't open too often deep (more on that later), with the backshoulder throws being the most effective form of passing at that difference. Fades and the likes weren't really there but the balls Tagovailoa delivered were largely fine. I didn't have much in the way of hate for his downfield accuracy. Reading defenses and situational awareness/football IQ problems were the biggest issues, which included a scramble out of bounds for a few yards on 3rd & 16 while Maryland was down two scores in the fourth quarter and a checkdown to the middle of the field (in field goal range) with 12 seconds left in the half and no timeouts, a disastrous decision that cost the Terps three points. 

His other interception in this game was an example of Taulia getting hooked on those quick hitters in the zone that I referenced as the meat of the passing attack. He stared down Tyrese Chambers and the S Josh Proctor read the QB's eyes and stepped in front of it: 

With Taulia there are always going to be these high leverage hiccups, but he is still the best thing about this Maryland offense. The legs aren't always the most productive and his instincts on the ground lead to devastating sacks, but they also allow him to extend plays, threaten defenses who pin their ears back to rush him, make up for issues in pass pro, and can keep the offense on schedule by scrambling. As a passer, he has been a net benefit, 65% completion, 7.4 Y/A, 22 TD to 8 INT, on a team that doesn't have quite the same level of skill position talent as they've had in the past. These sorts of throws are what has allowed Maryland to get to 6 wins: 

I found myself relatively unmoved by the "playmakers" on this offense. Tagovailoa is their best playmaker, bringing high highs and occasional low lows, but the end result is a bowl eligible team and I'm not sure many QBs in the B1G would be bowl eligible with this roster. 

Overview 

Maryland's offense comes into this game with its tail between its legs to some degree, having put up 13 points against Nebraska last week and only 15 the week before that against Penn State. They also put 17 on Ohio State, indicating a rather lackluster standard of performance when facing higher quality defenses in this conference. What are the problems causing this, and what glimmers of hope are there for Maryland fans? 

As always, we can break this down by going into the pass offense and the run offense. Through the air, I came away from my viewings of Maryland's offense attributing most of the credit to Tagovailoa but rather uninspired by the other pieces involved. The receiving talent at the disposal of Tagovailoa is ... fine, but nothing special. In the game against Ohio State, separation from the receivers in man coverage was a major area of concern. While they were acceptable getting open underneath in zone, their man snaps on the outside were quite poor. Outside of those backshoulder throws, pretty much everything else was closed off. Here's a throw for Tai Felton vs. CB Denzel Burke of Ohio State, with no separation: 

That was a bit of a theme no matter which WR was being targeted, be it Felton, Kaiden Prather, or Jeshaun Jones. Jones was the master of those backshoulder catches but Felton and Prather look like just guys to me, no flashy plays and each had a drop. Here's Felton's drop: 

The receivers did make plays from time to time, including this spectacular one-handed catch by Prather for a TD: 

But the plays they made were too few compared to the snaps where not enough was going on and they lacked that big play threat to take the top off the defense. The nature of the receiving corps forced Maryland into trying to drive the field five yards at a time, Army-style, and the Maryland offense makes too many mistakes to do that with regularity. The big time explosives you used to be scared of were not present against Ohio State. Of all the receivers, the one who best represents this is the TE Corey Dyches, who got almost nothing down the field but was a fixture of the short to intermediate passing game. I showed you one clip of him doing this back in the HenneChart section: 

Pass pro was also iffy. It was not the all-out assault on Tagovailoa that I expected preseason when I looked at this depth chart, but there was definitely an internal clock going on for Taulia that had to be accounted for. Sacks weren't common in this game but this one was bad: 

The Maryland OL is always shuffling but in this game they ran out Kyle Long at LG and Teddy Purcell at C and both were terrible. I assume that Amelio Moran and Aric Harris will be in their places, which is probably better, though I'm not sure Moran is much of an upgrade on Long. Gottleib Ayedze had trouble at RT as well against Tuimoloau, but has held up better in other games. I do think if Michigan's DL comes ready to play, they will be able to break this pocket down and get the pressure that is needed to really cause problems for the Maryland offense. 

On the ground, the Terps had a surprisingly solid day against Ohio State for a team that is rushing for barely 4.0 YPC this season across the 10 games. Some of their gap plays found real success: 

But I'm not sure how much of that is related to Ohio State because the rushing offense for Maryland was a total 0 against Penn State. When the blocking is there, the tandem of Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton II can make some things happen. Hemby was featured in the above clip and this next one is Littleton: 

The problem is that more often than not, the blocking hasn't been there. While the Terps had surprising effectiveness on the ground against OSU, there were also flashes of the problems that hurt them against Penn State. Namely, their blockers just aren't particularly good run blockers, to put it mildly: 

Zone runs in particular were not having any success to speak of against Ohio State and given the complexion of their season, I don't foresee that changing against Michigan. Michigan's defensive line should be able to win their matchups with the Maryland OL with decent consistency and while Hemby and Littleton have their moments, they aren't incredible players you have to be scared of breaking tackles or making a ton of guys miss. They are who they are. 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

As always, the question for Week 12 of the season is "will Michigan do any scouting at all on the opponent, given that it's the week before Ohio State?" The answer is probably no, since it's questionable how much Michigan gameplanned for Penn State last week, let alone for the team that PSU beat by a score of 51-15. We've seen Michigan run its Ohio State defense for most of this season and I don't anticipate that to be much different in this game. What is perhaps a bit different than Penn State is the fact that Maryland has some similarities to Ohio State offensively, albeit on a much reduced level of effectiveness. 

There is no parallel on this Maryland team to what Marvin Harrison Jr. represents to the Buckeye offense but Maryland is a spread offense that plays a lot of 11 personnel and likes to pass the football. Unlike PSU and like OSU, Maryland has a functional QB that attempts to throw often, and a decent bit down the field. This will be a test run for the Wolverines of their OSU defense against a non-OSU team, the best test of the season to date and it just so happens to be the week before. These will be valuable reps for Will Johnson, Josh Wallace, Mike Sainristil, and the rest of the secondary. I don't anticipate that Maryland will have much success offensively, because the talent at the skill positions is not where they need to be and the OL probably won't hold up with any regularity against Michigan's defensive front, but from a schematic standpoint, this isn't a completely meaningless game a week before the biggest game of them all.