It's Iowa week, everybody! The all-or-nothing nature of this football team means we get a grim read today and then a much more impressive read on Friday. But buckle up, because this one is as rough as you are expecting. 

The Film: Iowa had two possible games for me to go with here, the CyHawk battle against Iowa State in week two and Saturday's tussle with Rutgers in Piscataway. Though I think ISU is probably closer to Michigan's caliber of team than Rutgers, I opted for the latter because Iowa State represented a comic low for this offense, whereas they showed some (small) signs of life on offense against Rutgers, and it's more fair to represent them at their best than at their nadir. Moreover, Rutgers is closer to the present and more representative of what Iowa is now. 

Personnel: Click on the image for big, or here for the PDF.

Spencer Petras returns as Iowa's QB and that is not a good thing, amid another dismal campaign, though his best game of the season so far was the most recent one. When Michigan saw Petras last year Iowa was rotating QBs, with Petras coming off the field for Alex Padilla a decent amount. Padilla has not attempted a pass this season, so at this point we can say that the Padilla experiment is off the table. 

The Hawkeyes lost RB Tyler Goodson in the offseason and have had an open competition to replace him. The result has been a tandem between Leshon Williams and Gavin Wililams, with Kaleb Johnson in the mix at #3. Both of the Williams (not related) have missed a game this season, but when both are healthy, Leshon has gotten marginally more snaps than Gavin. Both can be used as receivers in the screen game. Johnson has the highest YPC clip of the three but that is padded by a strong game against Nevada (with one long run in particular). Johnson is coming off his highest usage game, with 15 carries against Rutgers. We should also mention Monte Pottebaum, Iowa's FB, who gets a solid share of snaps because Iowa is still running out of the I-Formation an awful lot. 

Iowa loves their TEs, which should surprise no one. Sam LaPorta is the star of this team as the leading TE. I was less enthused than some about LaPorta when I did this column pre-B1G Championship Game, but after watching him torch Rutgers, I am totally sold. He is a very good receiver, a pretty solid blocker and that package makes him the only true offensive weapon on this team. Luke Lachey is the #2 TE, getting a decent amount of run as 12 personnel is common in this offense. 

The WR level remains strikingly under-used, with just 16 catches in 4 games this season going to WRs(!!!!) and that is the result of only 45 targets being thrown their way in total. Over half of those targets go to Arland Bruce IV, who is decent, while every other Iowa receiver may as well not play and let a scarecrow line up in that spot instead. Nico Ragaini, Alec Wick, and Brody Brecht are emblematic of this: those three have played 223 snaps combined this season and have *4* receptions combined. Keagan Johnson was the one WR I had hope for coming into the season and alas he is injured and will miss this week's game. The non-Bruce WRs struggle to get open and even if they did, Petras isn't throwing to them anyway. 

The OL took some hits from when we last saw Iowa, losing star C Tyler Linderbaum and their best non-Linderbaum lineman, Kyler Schott, in the offseason. Logan Jones has slid into the center role and he looked okay from what I saw of him. Last year, they had Nick DeJong playing tackle and Connor Colby playing guard, whereas this year they've swapped roles. Colby remains a strong run blocker but a poor pass blocker, while DeJong is still an issue all around.

New starter at LT Mason Richman is decent, though, and Beau Stephens had a decent effort as well as the puller on Iowa's occasional gap concepts. The Hawkeyes were starting Jack Plumb at Richman's LT spot last season, but he has now been relegated to bench duty, along with reserve IOL Tyler Elsbury and name-of-the-year candidate Gennings Dunker. As a whole, this OL has been wobbly in pass pro and so-so in run blocking, with the five primary starters getting most of the work and the reserves coming in for 6 OL plays + occasional spot duty. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: a broken unit]

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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Heh heh, you don't even need me to answer this one for you. Iowa is the archaic definition of "pro-style" to its core, with an undying affinity for under center formations, slow developing play-action plays, and tight ends galore. Table: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	2	-	13	27%
Under Center	31	5	4	73%

You may recall that last year Iowa had this problem where almost every time they were under center they ran it and every time they were in the gun they were passing. That problem still persists to some degree, but it isn't quite as dramatic. Iowa was willing to run play-action a little bit at least, and they did have Petras pass from under center a little bit, but the lack of runs from the gun is still glaringly there. For the most part, the Iowa offense remains an unimaginative unit that telegraphs what they're doing based on what formation they're in. 

Here's the run/pass by down distribution, which also does a good bit of telegraphing: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	21	5
2nd	12	8
3rd	1	9
4th	-	-

Due to Spencer Petras' problems, pass protection issues, and the inability of anyone at the WR position to get open or threaten the defense, this is an offense that wants to run the ball. Rutgers giving Iowa two defensive touchdowns allowed the Hawkeyes to lead for most of this game and the above table shows us what they want to do. On first down, they want to run. On second down, they want to run. And if faced with third down, they will begrudgingly pass the football. As has been talked about many times, the key to beating Iowa is getting the lead on them and forcing them to move away from this predictable pattern. Even if faced with it, you can exploit it by "it" being predictable. 

Base set: Iowa oscillates between 11 and 12 personnel, as well as having the I-Formation tossed in. Here's 12 personnel (twins in this picture): 

And here's a passing-down variation of 11 personnel, with LaPorta the TE flexed out: 

We can't do this section without talking about the I-Formation and beautiful Iowa BEEF: 

The most "spread" that Iowa gets is when they go 11 personnel with all five lined up as receivers, which tends to look like this: 

You've got TE LaPorta and RB Gavin Williams lined up to the bottom of the screen with one WR, and then two more WRs to the top. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Iowa is still the same stretch zone team they've always been, with some inside zone peppered in to keep the defense honest. They also ran counter as their main gap play when going that direction, with trap in the arsenal. Overall, it is a heavy diet of stretch zone. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: It's Iowa, what do you think? They huddle up, drag their feet in the mud, and hike the ball with under 10 on the playclock an awful lot. If they happen to have the lead, the purpose of the offense in those circumstances is to get the game over with, running the ball and milking all the time off the clock as physically possible. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Spencer Petras is not the most fleet of foot QB in the world. Because he's in the Iowa offense, Petras is forced to move a bit, with the ole waggle being a sacred play in the playbook and bootlegs of other varieties factoring in. When pressure breaks down, he will scramble, but Spencer Petras is no one's idea of fast. He gets a 2 on this scale. 

Dangerman: This year's Dangerman is TE Sam LaPorta. The senior tight end returned to school after finishing 3rd Team All-B1G a year ago and I could see him finishing even better than that this season given that he's Iowa's entire passing offense. LaPorta finished with 4 catches for 77 yards in the game I saw against Rutgers, targeted on 7 of the 17 Iowa pass attempts in this game. LaPorta also had a nice hand in the Iowa rush offense as well through his blocking, and in the process became the only option to put in this slot.

Iowa typically throws short stuff and LaPorta is a primary recipient of this. The out route is an old standby: 

TE #84 lined up to the bottom of the screen

As is the stop route, which LaPorta bobbles but hangs on to below: 

An interesting fact about LaPorta's usage is that he is flexed out wide often. While he does run routes from tight to the formation on some occasions, Iowa lines him up like a wide receiver a big chunk of the time he's running a route (perhaps because he's better than all their wide receivers at receiving). On this next play we see him lined up near the sideline, where he flashes as a major red zone target to keep an eye on, which seduced Rutgers into yanking him down: 

This ball was definitely not catchable (remember that for the Petras section) and thus there shouldn't have been a flag, but LaPorta was dragged around by defenders in the end zone several times, so it was worth noting. Though most of LaPorta's work is in the intermediate game, he can run deep ball routes. Here's one of them: 

Also a great highlight for Petras, his best of the game. 

In the rushing game, LaPorta was involved in several nice blocks and starred as the lead blocker when Iowa occasionally ran counter or trap. Here's one example: 

TE #84 lined up offset in the backfield like a FB

Very good player, that Iowa tight end. Who woulda guessed?  

HenneChart: Spencer Petras, back again. I discussed him in this space back in early December and was a bit sympathetic in blaming other deficiencies in the offense as primary factors that held back Petras. This time I'm going to instead emphasize how it's impossible to talk about the problems with the Iowa offense without starting with Petras. Yes the OL is not great, the RBs are just guys, the WRs have their issues, the scheme is stale, etc. But even if all of those elements were fixed, Petras is going to limit you. The chart below looks pretty good: 

Iowa vs. Rutgers	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Spencer Petras	1	6	-		1	2		1	-	1	1		70%	4

And for reference, here was last year's chart: 

Iowa vs. Wisconsin (2021)	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Spencer Petras	-	7	-		2	3		-	-	6	-		54%	2

Those don't appear godawful, but Petras holds the offense back because of the minuscule list of things he can do. He can throw the out or the stop routes shown in the LaPorta section above, and every once in awhile drop in a dime down the field, but other times his balls aren't even close to accurate. That one I clipped where the Rutgers DB tackled LaPorta was not catchable even if LaPorta was Manute Bol size. Here's a clip I had from last year: 

Arm strength can also limit Petras. On this next clip he has LaPorta open but a noodle arm throw gives time for the defender to make a PBU: 

I also caught a pretty glaringly bad read, where Petras shows how his fixation on targeting LaPorta hampers his ability to see the field. On this play, he's got a crosser (Bruce) wide open for a likely TD, but instead decides to jack it up to LaPorta even though there's a defender wearing him like a cheap suit: 

Marginal, bordering on inaccurate throws still pop up for Petras, as they did last year. Here's one thrown behind LaPorta (you see how much they target him now, eh?) that the TE has a shot to snag but can't bring in because it's a foot to the right of where it needs to be: 

In summation, Petras is a QB that has, over the past two seasons, thrown 11 TD to 11 INT and completed 55.8% of his passes for 6.3 Y/A. He is a Checkdown Charlie who throws primarily within 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage or screens, has only one target he feels comfortable with, and is not capable of hurting you with his legs in any substantial manner. Petras' arm is not very strong and it is not very accurate. He would hold back any offense, but on Iowa, Petras is merely a bad cog in an offense with lots of bad cogs. 

 

Overview

Here's my summary of the Iowa offense in meme format: 

Even against Rutgers, which was a good performance by Iowa's 2022 offensive standards, it is a rough watch. The results weren't any good either! Iowa gained 277 yards on 55 plays, which is a decent 5.0 YPP, but they scored 13 offensive points and were 1/9 on third down. The Hawkeye RBs did rush for 4.2 YPC but the team gave up three sacks and punted five times. And again, this was a "good" Iowa performance based on the season.

For the year, they're averaging 12.5 PPG (taking out defensive points) and 232.5 YPG on offense, with those numbers coming against the following schedule: FCS South Dakota, 3-1 Iowa State, 2-3 Nevada (who has lost to Incarnate Wood), and Rutgers, one of the bottom-tier B1G teams. Iowa has not played a Top 25 team and their offensive numbers are NSFW against that schedule. 

The Iowa offense still runs a lot of zone stretch/outside zone. In this game they did reasonably well with it, with the offensive line opening holes in the rushing game for the RBs. The Hawkeyes did their best work attacking the cutback lane, with the backside tackle caving in the Rutgers edge guys. On this play it's RT Connor Colby paving the path: 

I thought Leshon Williams was the best of the Iowa RBs. This play sees him wiggle through a small hole created by his OL and then turn it into a sizable run: 

I also loved this jump cut from Williams to get positive yardage on what was a clunker of a play from the blockers: 

As a whole, though, Leshon Williams is not a star, and neither are Gavin Williams or Kaleb Johnson. Both halves of the Williams duo can be used in the passing game. They're not going to be torching LBs on wheel routes, but you have to account for the screen possibility. Iowa managed to get an RPS win on this play by dialing up the screen to Leshon Williams which nerfs the Rutgers blitz on 3rd & 7: 

The offensive line is okay, but what I noticed was the tendency for boom or bust in terms of the blocking. Iowa opened some large holes and had a rather high volume of rushing plays go for 5-8 yards. They also had several run plays blown up for TFLs and passing plays destroyed by catastrophic pass protection. That is problematic for any offense but on one as harmless as Iowa's, that sort of -4 yard play can singlehandedly kill a drive. This sort of thing popped up too often: 

Instead of going from 2nd & 8 to 3rd & 4, you go from 2nd & 8 to 3rd & 11. The Iowa offense is extraordinarily unlikely to pick up a 3rd & 11. In other words, that play just ended the drive. 

These events showed up more frequently in the passing game than the rushing game, where things go haywire in pass pro far too often. Last year I noted that the Iowa OL had many issues in pass protection relative to run blocking and I think that's still somewhat true, though the gap isn't as pronounced. Here's one such sack: 

That's Mason Richman at LT not blocking a guy and then struggling with his dude, while center Logan Jones is getting whipped and Leshon Williams isn't helping much on his blitz pickup. As a whole, I was not enthused by the RBs/FB ability to pick up free rushers at the QB. Connor Colby at RT was a weak spot in pass protection and on this play Williams has to help him out after he's beaten inside, letting a safety come free around the edge to sack Petras: 

RT #77

Pass protection does have a role in why Iowa has to keep their passing game so short, though as stated previously, I think Petras bears most of that blame. Half the time you get them in 3rd & long, they don't even try to pick up the first down, opting for a screen to an RB or Arland Bruce IV: 

247's Alejandro Zúñiga summed up this phenomenon on Twitter pretty well during the Rutgers game: 

“Petras lets it fly,” the announcer says as Iowa completes a two-yard pass and then brings on the punter.

— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) September 24, 2022

Of course, we can't get through a piece about the Iowa offense without showing a clip of (*drumroll*)..... THE WAGGLE: 

LaPorta, naturally, is the recipient there. You may recall that Iowa called that play 4 or 5 times in the B1G Championship Game and if Michigan is getting any sort of consistent pressure, I would expect them to go right back to it. There are a couple bootleg plays they run with, but this is their most distinctive. It was their only sort of consistent positive yardage passing plays in Indianapolis last year, so I expect to see it again on Saturday. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

A since-deleted RJ Moten quote shared by Austin Meek of The Athletic made the rounds on Twitter yesterday for saying exactly what everyone knows: make Iowa throw the ball. This is a game where you load up the box and stop the run on early downs to force Iowa into passing situations. They cannot function in games where they are trailing, and they also cannot function in games where they are forced to convert 3rd & medium to 3rd & long with any regularity. There is one weapon worth discussing on offense and you have to think Jesse Minter is spending all week coming up with a way to take away Sam LaPorta. After having watched Gemon Green, Mike Sainristil, and DJ Turner handle the Maryland receiving corps quite well last week, I am very confident that they can stuff these Iowa receivers in a locker. Not like the Hawkeyes throw at them anyway. 

Let your corners take away the WRs, come up with a plan of how to contain LaPorta, and you've essentially muzzled the entire Iowa passing game. If you lock up the run and force them to pass, it's basically game over at that point. I assume Iowa will get some yards on the ground here and there, and they'll probably scheme LaPorta open a few times to move the ball, but after that, then what? That was more or less the question in the B1G Championship Game last year, and it hasn't changed. Michigan's pass rush is considerably less ferocious now than it was then, but throw a few weird blitzes at them and one or two will likely get home. And if it does, that stops a drive dead in its tracks. 

Iowa has shown no ability to move the ball on a decent defense this season. They couldn't move it on Iowa State, and couldn't move it consistently on Rutgers. I don't know how Iowa gets to 300 yards or more than 10 offensive points against Michigan without special teams or defense playing a significant role. They would have to show something they have not yet this season, such as a WR going wild or an RB elevating their game. Otherwise, you can contain this group because few players can hurt you and everything is extremely predictable.

In three games against Jim Harbaugh and Michigan, the Iowa offense has scored 18 total points (+ one safety in 2016), for a cool 6 PPG. This Michigan defense is not as good as 2016's and probably not as good as last year, but also this is the worst Iowa offense to face a Harbaugh team. How do they get above that PPG average without the defense helping them out substantially? I don't know. Could be a long day on this side of the ball for the yellow and black in Iowa City on Saturday.