Big Ten Schedule Released. Let's React.
THIS IS ALL TEMPORARY
The ACC is crumbling, the Pac 12 may not exist anymore, and Oregon and Washington are blowing up Brett McMurphy's cell phone on a weekly basis to say they heard a rumor that UCLA said they saw USC talking to the AAU about Miami and FSU at 31 flavors, and they think it's pretty serious. As Sam Webb iterated and reiterated on the show this morning, they're just putting this together right now as a stopgap because they're not done expanding.
THE SCHEDULE
Mitch Sherman helpfully got us a screen shot. White games are on the road; gray at home.
[Discussion after THE JUMP]
Michigan, as we all suspected, will visit USC their first year in the conference, despite having Ohio State on the road and Texas visiting that year. The 2024 schedule doesn't have dates yet so we can just order by difficulty:
- @Ohio State (11/30)
- @USC
- Texas (9/7)
- Wisconsin
- @Illinois
- UCLA
- Minnesota
- Maryland
- Michigan State
- @Rutgers
- Arkansas State (9/21)
- Fresno State (8/31)
That is BRUTAL, with three potential contenders at the top, whatever Year 2 Wisconsin with Fickell looks like, going to a now-decent Illinois, tough outs UCLA and Minnesota, and then your 8th-hardest game is a rival that's been recruiting as well as Wisconsin and has you in their crosshairs.
Michigan's 2025 schedule gets a LOT easier but still goes about seven deep in losable games.
- Ohio State (11/29)
- @Oklahoma
- Penn State
- @Nebraska
- @Iowa
- Purdue
- @Maryland
- @Michigan State
- @Indiana
- Northwestern
- Central Michigan (9/13)
- New Mexico (8/30)
YMMV on the power rankings in three years; let's just get through this. Ohio State gets USC at home in 2025 but nothing like Michigan's 2024. I'm sure this was a point of contention, since what we were hearing out of these meetings was a lot of sidemouth B.S. about Michigan's easy 2022 and 2023 schedules. Maybe we shouldn't have canceled the UCLA series.
PLEASE DO A SHOWCASE
They haven't announced the final plans for the championship but they're going to just have the top two teams play, which is a recipe for disaster since there isn't a good way to determine the best two teams.
Showcase! Showcase! Showcase! Play the best three games that weren't played. You can even have it in NFL stadia. Replays are awful and just destroy or confirm information you already had. There is almost no configuration of a season that does not result in an obvious #1 game. Most of the time the #1 game is for the conference championship, but when it isn't that's because the #1 team already defeated all the other contenders and deserves to be the champion.
THE PROTECTED RIVALRIES
Nicole Auerbach broke down the ten protected rivalries.
Here are the Big Ten's protected rivalry games, which will be played on an annual basis — while all other matchups rotate: https://t.co/4FiKEWdSOV pic.twitter.com/1EMB7Kc64N
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) June 8, 2023
This seems like the bare minimum. It's interesting that Maryland and Rutgers couldn't engineer a deal to keep Penn State on the schedule every year. Also note that seven of these protected games occur the final weekend, meaning everyone but Penn State and Michigan State are already seeing someone for Thanksgiving.
They could move Rutgers-Maryland to another week I guess, but there won't be much more variety than that. I wonder if MSU-PSU are going to get locked together or if both will get that week off for a bye, or use it to schedule an interesting independent. Right now PSU-MSU is on the schedule both years.
EVERYONE PLAYS MICHIGAN
I wonder if getting Michigan to visit was one of USC's conditions for joining the league in the first place. Michigan plays both in 2024, continuing a long tradition of always playing the teams they add right away. At least this one isn't locked in. When the B10 added Rutgers and Maryland they put them in the East with Michigan. When the B1G added Nebraska, they configured weird divisions that put Nebraska with Michigan. When the Big11Ten added Penn State and everyone was going to miss two opponents every year, they made sure Penn State didn't miss Michigan. When Michigan State replaced Chicago after World War II, it was on the condition they get a protected rivalry with Michigan. When they organized the conference in 1896, it was so Chicago could play Michigan.
The last team to join the conference and not play Michigan was Ohio State in 1913, but that was only because Michigan had left the conference, and the Western Conference (as it was known then) had banned teams from playing Michigan (except Minnesota ignored them). Before that Michigan-Ohio State had played every year since 1900. The loss of The Game was part of the impetus for Michigan returning to the conference in 1918.
OTHER ODDITIES
Empty Rose Bowl. UCLA's two seasons are extremely unbalanced. Their home schedule in 2024: Ohio State, USC, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern. Their home schedule in 2025: Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers. Hope they have interesting non-con opponents.
Have Fun with That. Illinois visits OSU and USC and hosts Michigan, Iowa, and Purdue in 2024.
I may find more later but need to get this posted and get my kids.
Combine tasks: have your kids do this work!
Amazing schedule. But, is Texas really a contender. Steve "don't f***'n touch me" Sarkisian has managed to lose at least 4 games in all 8 of his full seasons at good programs. He's managed to lose at least 6 games in 5 of those 8 seasons. Trying to remember when a coach with that kind of resume suddenly put it together and contended for anything. I'll take Harbaugh with Gatorade on his cereal over an lifetime 7-5 coach who puts Jack Daniels on his frosted flakes.
There are only a few teams that have as much talent as Michigan, Texas would be one of them.
At first I thought Seth finished with:
"I may find more later but need to get pasted and get my kids."
You forgot Maryland in '24 for us, at home. Probably slotted around UCLA or Minnesota.
It's weird that they put 2025 on top of 2024. Also weird to me that it's harder to read your home opponents (gray backgrounds) than your away (white backgrounds).
Also, PSU has a home and home ("2-play") with Rutgers in this round, guessing they'll always get Rutgers or Maryland. They theoretically could have 5 different sets, but it sounds like they'll be getting one of M, OSU or USC every 2 years. Guessing they keep one of the cable subscribers too.
Found this useful, from the Athletic. It's all the opponents each school will see home-and-home over this period. Italicized if it's a permanent rivalry
Illinois: Northwestern, Purdue, Ohio State
Indiana: Purdue, Michigan State, Maryland
Iowa: Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Maryland: Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan
Michigan: Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland
Michigan State: Michigan, Penn State, Indiana
Minnesota: Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska
Nebraska: Iowa, Minnesota, UCLA
Northwestern: Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue
Ohio State: Michigan, Illinois, Northwestern
Penn State: Michigan State, USC, Rutgers
Purdue: Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern
Rutgers: Maryland, Penn State, UCLA
UCLA: USC, Nebraska, Rutgers
USC: Penn State, Wisconsin, UCLA
Wisconsin: Minnesota, Iowa, USC
USC gets some great, traditional Big Ten programs, and UCLA gets diddly-squat.
Rumor was that UCLA wanted annual matchups with Nebraska, so I imagine they’re pretty happy with that. The trip to Rutgers will suck, but it’s 2 free wins
Never know, it might be the opportunity for Rutgers.
Graphic on the protected rivalries and two-play teams (i.e., teams that you play both in 24 and 25):
A one-loss Michigan team in 2024 is sure to make the 12-team college playoff. I wonder if a two-loss team, with Ls in Columbus and LA, would still have a case for the 12-team field. Probably yes.
Some weird teams are going to get into a 12 team playoff. I’d guarantee a 10-2 Michigan team makes the field in 2024.
Considering this was how the Top 12 shook-out last year...
- Georgia (13-0)
- Michigan (13-0)
- TCU (12-1)
- Ohio State (11-1)
- Alabama (10-2)
- Tennessee (10-2)
- Clemson (11-2)
- Utah (10-3)
- Kansas St. (10-3)
- USC (11-2)
- Penn State (10-2)
- Washington (10-2)
... it seems incredibly likely.
Hey Kyle, thanks for this. I'd like to change my answer from probably yes, to they better damn well be in the 12-team field!
Penn State was criminally underrated heading into bowl season. 2 losses to top 5 teams, and yet behind...well I guess everyone ahead of them actually beat a top 10 team. Except for Clemson. and Ohio State (!!!)
Good point about Penn State. Even with 2 quality losses, PSU was only one spot from being bumped by Tulane. Tulane was the sixth-highest-ranked conference champion, aka group of 5 auto bid. (Top 6 ranked conference champions are automatic qualifiers.)
And on top of that, the Pac-12 and Big 12 are not going to look the same moving forward from 2024 on. Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA leaving those conferences is going to make it very difficult for them to be 2-bid leagues in the future. I think most years you are going to see the at-large bids split between the Big Ten and SEC with the ACC/ND taking up one at-large.
OSU should fall the same number of spots behind Michigan as point differential in their loses. So, last year, they should have fallen to #24.
A 2-loss Michigan is probably close to guaranteed to qualify too. Shoot, there's a nonzero chance that a 3-loss Michigan could sneak in (although I guarantee that SEC would get first priority in that category)
That's how I feel too. I think a 3-loss team would potentially be in if that schedule strength holds up.
I don't think you can look at last year's rankings and project them moving forward. I think the Big 12 and Pac-12 are going to be one bid leagues for most years moving forward as their strength of schedule drops once they lose Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA so you would most likely not have a playoff with TCU, Kansas St, Utah, and Washington in it unless they were one-loss teams losing in conference championship games.
I now live in the land of University of Spoiled Children (South OC CA). Can't wait to kick their asses next year with some Man Ball!!! Buncha old rich bastards who got here way before me.
Also, I'll be there for the game. Look for the guy in the Michigan hat.
I look forward to seeing USC travel to the Midwest for cooler weather games in November.
One aspect of the ND - USC series, that people may not be aware of is - the USC agreement with ND stipulates that when ND travels to South Bend for the game - that the game not be played later than a date in October (perhaps the third weekend).
With the B1G schedule and team locations - it's a pretty fair bet that USC will travel to the upper Midwest some time in November in the years to come.
As much as I don't like coaches like Riley, who seems like a better version of RichRod, that guy can pull amazing QB's out of his ass. So, after Williams leaves next year, he's almost certain to replace him with someone even better. It will be really interesting to see what Riley and Kelly look like in a league that prides itself on physical football.
Nebraska and Wisconsin are the lucky teams to get shipped out west in both seasons. Rutgers and Penn St are the only two that host each newcomer once.
Well, you push back on scheduling a night game and this is what you get. Honestly, I don’t blame the conference. Michigan is getting the same money from the TV deal, they should have to play by the same rules.
Pure conjecture, IMO. I highly doubt the B1G schedule makers took that into consideration whatsoever.
Undoubtedly pure conjecture. But so is the idea that Michigan has too play the two new teams.
Michigan brings in way more money than 80% of the B1G, yet shares it equally with a bunch of chumps.
Did they announce what tiebreakers they'll use to determine who gets into the Big Ten championship game?
Just make it no rematches in the final. I dont care what else happens just figure out how to fairly implement that rule.
I would get rid of the entire championship game and add a showcase game for every team against the teams closest in the standings that did not play in the regular season. Would serve as a de facto 10th game and tiebreakers for bowl positions and the conference crown.
Why not do both? Play a "knockdown" week the last week of the regular season. 1-4, 2-3 at the top with 5-6, 7-8... Down the line (make adjustments as necessary trying to avoid remakes). The championship game then is winner of 1-4 and 2-3.
Don't think the showcase thing is doing to happen, people like championship games. Regardless of whether it did though, tiebreakers would still be super important. Imagine three teams finishing 8-1 - who's in? Or one team going undefeated and two or more others being 8-1.
I'd prefer a tiebreak based on combined score in games among tied teams to one based on strength of schedule - you'd hate for it to be decided by something the team had no control over.
Agree with you on this. Also would force teams to not step off the gas and fully utilize their playbooks and roster knowing that points scored/allowed actually could have a bearing on standings.
94 - during the broadcast, the BTN crew stated that the conference was working on the tiebreaker rules for the CCG. No date was provided for when those rules would be released.
If this is the case than let’s only guarantee that The Game will be scheduled for November and not necessarily as the last game. This preserves the high-stakes nature of the The Game and the wildcard variable of weather to ensure that the styles-makes-fights elements remain in place while limiting the probabilities of consecutive week rematches with the Buckeyes. I’m sure this suggestion is to the chagrin of Ohio State since they are a finesse program that likes perfect conditions and wants rematches with the most on the line in a dome to fit their track meet style of play. Scheduling The Game as one of, but not the last game, would also actually preserve the value of that game by making the loser have to play catch-up or risk the outcome demoralizing the team for the remaining games. Keeping the current schedule opens the possibility of double jeopardy for the winner of The Game while the loser gets a do-over for a conference title.
I'd say OSU had pretty good conditions in Columbus last year. Relatively warm and sunny.
The sun got in their eyes.
"Empty Rose Bowl. UCLA's two seasons are extremely unbalanced. Their home schedule in 2024: Ohio State, USC, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern. Their home schedule in 2025: Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers. Hope they have interesting non-con opponents."
- How does UCLA agree to that? USC gets Michigan at home in 2024. It would make sense to schedule Michigan at home in 2025. UCLA must have pissed someone off. Or a big refresh might be coming for the schedule.
Is B1G scheduling "play USC-UCLA one year; take a break next year" philosophy? That doesn't hold up either.
UCLA doesn’t really care about football.
ST3 - one of the challenges I think UCLA faces is - the distance from their campus to their "home" football stadium. In Ann Arbor - the vast majority of students walk to the Michigan Stadium - and, the atmosphere along State Street, Hoover, etc. - is part of the game day experience.
At UCLA - it's 26 miles to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl, their home venue. Even if they moved to SoFi Stadium - it would be 13 miles.
USC is a walk to the Coliseum, and about seven miles from SoFi.
I do expect the Rose Bowl will sell out, or be very close to that when Michigan plays UCLA in Pasadena.
It is a hard game but playing SC in the Colosseum is going to be cool.
And Harbaugh has experience embarrassing SC at home!
If USC/UCLA can wear all all color uniforms, just imagine a USC/Michigan game with both wearing their fullcolor uniforms!
Three of those protected rivalries don't really make much sense to me. Am I missing something about the following:
Nebraska - Iowa: I know that they made up a phony rivalry trophy for this game when Nebraska joined the conference but they are not historically rivals are they? How many rivalries does Iowa need?
Maryland - Rutgers: Is this just based on the fact that these are the last two additions to the conference and don't have a rivalry with anyone else?
Illinois - Purdue: This one makes no sense at all. They both already have a rivalry game so why make up this one?
There are some actual trophy games that are being ignored here (Michigan - Minnesota, MSU - Indiana, OSU - Illinois) with some pretty long-standing history so that we can have these duds.
I think establishing Nebraska-Iowa as Farmageddon the Friday after Thanksgiving is a great idea and works well.
I agree that the only protected rivalry that made me...
...was Illinois-Purdue. WHAT?!? Where did that come from? If they were protecting rivalries three-deep, I could see having to create some. But when protected rivalries are basically bare bones, Illinois-Purdue makes no sense. Heck, western Illinois has a stronger rivalry with Iowa...why not just give Iowa a 4th protected rival.
I'm surprised that they left PSU without a protected rival when they had a bit of a rivalry with Maryland as independents back in the day.
A game for the second and third best engineering schools in the conference.
Au contraire on Illinois-Purdue. They are geographically close and have a longstanding rivalry.
"Fighting Illini football team of the University of Illinois and Purdue Boilermakers football team of Purdue University. The Purdue Cannon is presented to the winner of the game. Purdue leads the series 47–45–6.[2]"
I was totally unaware that this "rivalry" or its associated trophy even existed (hence its inclusion in my post) which pretty much sums up just how irrelevant this is to anyone who isn't an Illinois or Purdue fan.
Thanks for bringing this up, though. It does at least offer some rationale for this otherwise seemingly bizarre protected rivalry.
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