Previously: Part One (Illinois-Minnesota), Part Two (Nebraska-Wisconsin)

Alright, let's get to actually ranking these rosters. I'm once again breaking this up into two posts because I'm incapable of brevity, it seems. We're going in reverse order and using tiers.

There's some projection to these rankings. I went off Bart Torvik's 2022 projections for NBA Draft decisions that are still up in the air; while these things are difficult to predict, his projected rotations seem quite reasonable. I'll note which moves aren't locks in each team's section. My bottom three tiers conveniently cover half of the league, so that's where we'll start today.

Tier VI: Total Rehaul

trying to conjure last season's talent [Campredon]

14. Minnesota. The Gophers finished the season on a 5-14 skid, getting Richard Pitino fired. Former Gopher player and assistant Ben Johnson has a brutal rebuild for his first head coaching job. Both Gach, who was ineffective as last year's #4 option, is easily the most productive and experienced returner. Most everyone else projected to play is an up-transfer facing a transition from lower competition. The team's only true center right now is a 6'11, 190-pound three-star freshman. 

Room for movement? Finding a large, warm body to play at center would greatly help the roster, but it's hard to see this team being anything but bad. You won't find much more of a Year Zero situation at a major conference program.

13. Penn State. Another first-year head coach faces a difficult roster situation, in this case Micah Shrewsberry, who's mostly followed Brad Stevens as an assistant since his lone head coaching gig at IU South Bend from 2005-07. There's more to work with in Happy Valley than Minneapolis, at least, thanks to some experienced returners in big man John Harrar, wing Seth Lundy, and guards Myles Dread and Sam Sessoms. After those four, however, there's very little in the way of depth, and from top to bottom this may be the least talented roster in the conference.

Room for movement? Not much. PSU added Gardner Webb grad transfer point guard Jaheam Cornwall since the last post but that doesn't move the needle a whole lot since he's either splitting time with Sessoms or comprising half of a very small backcourt.

12. Rutgers. I'm still not sure how we got here, though I have significantly more faith in Rutgers Pikiell-ing their way up the standings than the two preceding programs, at least. Take last season's squad, foul out Myles Johnson (UCLA transfer), remove Montez Mathis (St. John's), replace Jacob Young (transfer) and Geo Baker (pros, option to return) with a three-star freshman and LSU transfer Aundre Hyatt, and you essentially have the current projected roster. That's assuming Ron Harper Jr. pulls his name out of the draft, too. If Harper leaves, they could slide behind PSU.

Room for movement? Baker could very well return and RU could desperately use his scoring. A transfer big man to take some pressure off Cliff Omoruyi would also be nice.

[Hit THE JUMP for three falling 2021 contenders and a program rising from the ashes.]

Tier V: Precipitous Drops

gross [Campredon]

11. Wisconsin. Instead of Zombie Wisconsin, we got Brad Undeavison. Jonathan Davis and Tyler Wahl are the only other returning contributors. The two transfers don't project to be high-impact players at the Big Ten level. Everyone else is a sophomore or freshman who was a three-star recruit out of high school. If you thought Wisconsin played ugly last year, wait until you see the version with Davison as their go-to player.

Room for movement? The Badgers have one open scholarship and could really use a point guard who can score. Thankfully, no other teams want those, so filling that hole should be easy.

10. Iowa. Even with the unexpected news that Jordan Bohannon is returning, expect the Hawkeyes to take a major step back after running out one of the better offenses in recent memory last season. Luka Garza is gone from the middle, as is productive backup Jack Nunge—they're turning to 6'9 North Dakota transfer Filip Rebraca, a second-team All-Summit selection last season. CJ Fredrick is transferring and Joe Wieskamp seems unlikely to come back from his second test of the NBA Draft process. Connor McCaffery will be recovering from offseason surgeries on both hips.

Iowa has some interesting sophomores but outside of Keegan Murray none of them have shown the ability to slot into the rotation without the offense taking a major hit. Bohannon is expected to play more at the two next to Joe Toussaint (not a shooter, turnover-prone, athletic defender) and Ahron Ulis (almost invisible on offense as a freshman) at the point. The Hawkeyes may struggle to manufacture points; meanwhile, Fran McCaffery hasn't fielded a top-75 defense since 2016.

Room for movement? Wieskamp pulling out of the draft would give the team a true #1 scorer and put less of a burden on the young guards. They're still probably middle of the pack at best unless several players take big leaps.

Tier IV: Passing Ships?

a fun backcourt but probably not a contender [Campredon]

9. Nebraska. In the case of the Huskers, a lot of turnover after last year is healthy for the program. They improved down the stretch after leading scorer Teddy Allen left the program, moving up 28 spots on KenPom over the season's final month. They've added some talented transfers and a legitimate five-star recruit in Bryce McGowens. Fred Hoiberg has done this before, too. In his second year at Iowa State, the Cyclones improved from 3-13 in the Big 12 and 81st on KenPom to 12-6, 26th, and an 8-seed in the tourney despite losing most of the previous year's rotation.

Room for movement? I believe Nebraska only has one more open scholarship to use, so Hoiberg has already done most of the reshaping for this year. The Huskers may have the widest range of possible outcomes of any Big Ten team.

8. Illinois. Unless Kofi Cockburn withdraws from the draft process for a second straight year, Andre Curbelo is going from fun secondary option to offensive focal point, and there's less talent around him than NBA-bound Ayo Dosunmu had as the lead guard last year. Adam Miller was an unexpected departure. It's hard to see Florida transfer Omar Payne coming close to replicating Cockburn's production a year after being Colin Castleton's backup. Curbelo, Trent Frazier, and Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer should be a good backcourt, but depth and frontcourt production are major question marks.

Room for movement? Illinois could bring on more players and the most glaring hole is at center—they need someone to split time with Payne. Cockburn returning would put them back into contention, otherwise I think they're looking at a mid-pack finish.