Big Ten Reset Eyes Banner
Scores from last week (home team listed second):
- Northwestern 66, Illinois 73
- Nebraska 50, Maryland 64
- MSU 65, Purdue 75
- Nebraska 71, Maryland 79
- Minnesota 72, Indiana 82
- Rutgers 64, Michigan 71
- OSU 92, PSU 83
- Iowa 77, Wisconsin 62
- Illinois 94, Minnesota 63
- MSU 78, Indiana 71
- Purdue 75, Nebraska 58
- Michigan 92, OSU 87
- PSU 68, Iowa 74
- Wisconsin 68, Northwestern 51
- Maryland 68, Rutgers 59
Michigan had the win of the week against Ohio State yesterday, though Illinois deserves mention for blasting Minnesota by 31 at the Barn, where the Gophers had previously been unbeatable. Minnesota also lost at Indiana; those two teams are squarely on the bubble.
Nebraska playing every other day for two weeks seems to be catching up to them, shockingly.
The Standings
| Record | NET | KP/Torvik Avg | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | OVR | B1G | RK | Q1 | Q2 | Nat Rk (chg) | Proj. B1G Rec.* |
KP | BT | KP | BT | ||||
| U-M | 16-1 | 11-1 | 3rd | 6-1 | 4-0 | 3.0 (--) | 16-2.5 | 7th | 6th | 11th | 12th | ||||
| ILL | 16-5 | 12-3 | 4th | 7-5 | 4-0 | 6.5 (up 0.5) | 15-5 | 8th | 11th | 9th | 14th | ||||
| OSU | 18-5 | 12-5 | 7th | 8-4 | 3-1 | 7.0 (down 0.5) | 14-6 | 3rd | 3rd | 86th | 83rd | ||||
| IOWA | 17-6 | 11-5 | 5th | 4-5 | 6-1 | 4.5 (--) | 13.5-6.5 | 1st | 2nd | 74th | 97th | ||||
| PUR | 15-8 | 10-6 | 28th | 4-7 | 5-0 | 21.5 (up 1.5) | 12-7 | 27th | 34th | 26th | 31st | ||||
| WIS | 16-8 | 10-7 | 20th | 3-7 | 6-1 | 12.0 (--) | 11-9 | 41st | 44th | 8th | 7th | ||||
| RUT | 12-9 | 8-9 | 31st | 4-8 | 3-1 | 29.0 (down 4.5) | 10-10 | 60th | 70th | 14th | 16th | ||||
| UMD | 14-10 | 8-9 | 30th | 5-9 | 1-1 | 34.0 (up 5) | 10-10 | 45th | 53rd | 28th | 37th | ||||
| IND | 12-10 | 7-8 | 52nd | 3-7 | 5-1 | 37.0 (down 3) | 9-10.5 | 42nd | 43rd | 34th | 52nd | ||||
| MIN | 13-10 | 6-10 | 60th | 4-10 | 1-0 | 49.5 (down 11.5) | 8-12 | 40th | 39th | 70th | 69th | ||||
| MSU | 11-9 | 5-9 | 81st | 2-8 | 3-1 | 69.0 (up 2.5) | 6.5-13.5 | 87th | 107th | 50th | 47th | ||||
| PSU | 7-12 | 4-11 | 40th | 3-9 | 2-2 | 38.0 (up 0.5) | 6-13.5 | 33rd | 35th | 48th | 59th | ||||
| NW | 6-14 | 3-13 | 98th | 2-11 | 0-2 | 78.0 (down 5.5) | 4.5-15 | 109th | 113th | 52nd | 64th | ||||
| NEB | 5-15 | 1-12 | 146th | 1-10 | 0-3 | 112.5 (--) | 2-17 | 223rd | 226th | 45th | 34th | ||||
*Torvik includes projections for games that have been postponed, KenPom only includes those that have been rescheduled.
Sunday's game effectively knocked Ohio State out of title contention, narrowing the field to Michigan and Illinois. Let's just dive into that now...
The Title Race
the Illini face long odds of blocking M's path to a title [Campredon]
Here are the remaining schedules for the Wolverines and Illini, along with their percentage chance at victory in those games according to KenPom's projections:
| Michigan | Illinois |
|---|---|
| Iowa (60%) | @MSU (79%) |
| @Indiana (70%) | Nebraska (96%) |
| Illinois (62%) | @Wisconsin (55%) |
| MSU (90%) | @Michigan (38%) |
| @MSU (81%) | @OSU (46%) |
Illinois needs Michigan to lose at least twice to have a chance. Going by win percentage, 15-2 (88.2%) edges out 17-3 (85.0%), which would be the case if M drops a game and the Illini win out. 14-3 is an 82.4% mark, so running the table would do it for the Illini if the Wolverines lost two of their remaining games.
About that last bit: given the above win probabilities, Illinois has a 7.2% chance at winning out. Say Illinois goes 4-1 down the stretch; that'd put them at 16-4 (80.0%). Michigan could lose two games to close the season and still edge them out in win percentage, albeit just barely. It's more likely Illinois goes 3-2, which would make them 15-5 (75.0%), and that'd allow the Wolverines to drop three games and still take the title at 13-4 (76.4%).
If Michigan takes down Iowa, they can probably start stitching the banner. If they beat the Illini, they might as well raise it.
[Hit THE JUMP for bracketology, new tiers, and more.]
Bracket Watching
sweating it out, again [Campredon]
Here's how the conference stacks up on the Bracket Matrix, which is a (collection of) projection(s) of where teams would be seeded if the regular season ended right now, and in Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology, which uses his rankings to forecast the bracket on Selection Sunday:
| BM Seed | BM Avg Seed | BM # of Brackets (out of 100) | Torvik Seed Proj. | Torvik At-Large Bid % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U-M | 1 | 1.01 | 100 | 1 | 100.0 |
| OSU | 1 | 1.08 | 100 | 1 | 99.9 |
| ILL | 2 | 1.99 | 100 | 2 | 99.9 |
| IA | 2 | 2.61 | 100 | 2 | 99.9 |
| UW | 5 | 5.72 | 100 | 5 | 99.2 |
| PU | 6 | 6.08 | 100 | 5 | 98.9 |
| RU | 7 | 7.04 | 100 | 10 | 82.3 |
| IU | 11 | 10.57 | 87 | 12 | 37.3 |
| MN | 11 | 10.80 | 84 | F4O | 34.8 |
| MD | 12 | 11.04 | 74 | 9 | 90.6 |
| PSU | — | 11.50 | 2 | — | 1.2 |
| MSU | — | — | 0 | — | 0.6 |
According to Torvik, seven teams—Michigan, OSU, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Maryland(!)—have at least a 90% shot of receiving an at-large bid, with the first six dead locks and an eighth team, Rutgers, looking good at 82.3%.
Michigan State upsetting Indiana, which Hoosier fans saw coming with remarkable clarity, put Archie Miller's squad in a perilous spot. They're either one of the last teams in the field or left off most of the Bracket Matrix brackets that have updated since that loss and Torvik projects them to be the final team in the field. Minnesota, meanwhile, is one of the first four out in Torvik's projections.
Penn State had some tourney momentum coming out of their COVID pause and continue to sport solid NET (40th) and KenPom/Torvik (38th) rankings but they've lost too many games for anything but a miracle run to get them in. Michigan State is included above in case any RCMB posters are reading this.
The Big Ten might get to nine teams in the field; a tenth would take some dominos falling the right way.
Chris Collins, Innovator
Congratulations, Northwestern.
After losing to #Wisconsin @NUMensBball, has dropped 13 league games in a row after starting 3-0, the first ever #B1G team to do that. They join @LongwoodMBB (in 2016-17) as the only D-1 teams in the last 10 years to drop at least 13 straight after a 3-0 conference start.
— BTNStatsGuys (@BTNStatsGuys) February 22, 2021
"All history is good history." — someone, probably.
Updated Tiers
Last week's:
Tier I: Michigan
Tier II: Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin
Tier III: Purdue, Rutgers
Tier IV: Indiana, Minnesota, Maryland
Tier V: Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska
This week's get even more ridiculous with the one-team tiers because, as we discussed on this week's upcoming podcast, Wisconsin has fully turned into a gatekeeper that loses to the elite teams in the league and beats most everyone else. To make up for it, I've condensed the middle:
Tier I: Michigan
Tier II: Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa
Tier III: Wisconsin
Tier IV: Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota
Tier V: Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern
Tier VI: Nebraska :(
Sorry, Nebraska, the frowny face returns. That week you won was fun, though.
This Week's Schedule
All times Eastern. Subject to change.
Tuesday: Illinois at MSU (7, FS1), PSU at Nebraska (8, BTN)
Wednesday: Indiana at Rutgers (8, BTN)
Thursday: Iowa at Michigan (7, ESPN), Nebraska at Illinois (7, BTN), OSU at MSU (9, ESPN), Northwestern at Minnesota (9, BTN)
Friday: Purdue at PSU (7, FS1)
Saturday: Michigan at Indiana (noon, FOX), Illinois at Wisconsin (2, ESPN), Minnesota at Nebraska (7, BTN)
Sunday: MSU at Maryland (2, CBS), Iowa at OSU (4, CBS)
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
I get the appeal of using T-Ranketology, it's a convenient tool. But I feel like any use of it needs to come with the caveat that it's a terrible tool at predicting the tournament field. According to BrackMatrix rankings, it's ranked 117 out of 133 tools/people at predicting the tournament field correctly over the past 4 years, well behind guys we make fun of like Joe Lunardi (who's at #55). So any predictions it gives are kind of useless.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
What's the value of a tool that tells one who is going to make the tourney, other than for people who bet on such things? The people who select who is in the tourney do it kind of goofily, so I don't see Torvik's inaccuracy of that as much of an indictment.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^
Its usefulness is that it provides a % likelihood of making the tourney which no one else does (because no one else uses predictive analytics, they're all just projecting current brackets).
So yes, while it's not the best tool for end-of-season actual bracket correctness because it can't take into account injuries, NET quadrants, etc. it's the only one making in-season predictions.
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
Please remind me: Wasn't Northwestern the darling of the Big 10 after their 3-0 league start? I swear they were also ranked, but my memory is probably very hazy.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
You are correct. Northwestern was ranked 19th at the time, fresh off getting hammered by Iowa. The announcers continued to repeat that "Northwestern is a very good basketball" team ad nauseam. Still haven't won a game since. The game was on BTN so I am sure it was Bardo regurgitating that vomit for two hours, he's the worst.
February 22nd, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
They had an entirely new spread motion offense keyed by their skinny center Nance who could hit the three.
February 22nd, 2021 at 7:04 PM ^
And then Juan wrote NW's book.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:13 PM ^
Saturday at oon at Indiana is a quick turnaround after our Thursday night game against Iowa. Hopefully it will get us in shape for the tournaments.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:39 PM ^
Yeah, that's a quick turnaround for a road game. Good thing it appears they've quit on Miller (the end of that MSU game was such a terrible effort by IU).
February 22nd, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
Yeah it would've been nice if they had scheduled it for Wednesday instead of Thursday, considering both teams just played yesterday and Iowa doesn't play again until the 28th. Way to go, Big Ten.
February 23rd, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^
This brings to mind one of the all-time weird home-road turnarounds from the Amaker era (2006): home against OSU on a Thursday night, then a noon tip Saturday at Purdue. Purdue was awful that year but pulled the upset, which probably kept U-M out of the tournament.
February 22nd, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
Saturday is the day that could decide the Big Ten regular season before the UM-Illinois game is played a few days later. Michigan has to play Indiana on 1 day's rest, but Indiana plays on the road at Rutgers Wednesday night, so they'll only have 1 additional day of rest on UM. Meanwhile, Illinois plays @ Wisconsin later in the afternoon, which will be their 3rd game in 5 while Wisconsin doesn't play the whole week. A noon UM win and an Illinois loss in the afternoon would all but clinch the title.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:17 PM ^
I've already filled out Sparty's bracket for them....That is all.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
If this scenario could happen, I would be a very happy man.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
It would be even better if you added Duke and Kentucky to that bracket....
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
Duke will make the NCAA tournament unless they collapse the rest of the season, they’ve already found a way to get them in the bubble discussion and the win over Virginia cemented that talk. UK, also playing in a half ass conference, will likely run the table the rest of their conference season and will have won 6 in a row before their conference tourney. I don’t see them getting in yet but if they win 8 of 9, they will have a good shot because the powers that be are dying right now thinking of a horrendous tourney without their famous darling teams. If push comes to shove and UK and Duke are close, they’ll get the nod. MSU, unfortunately for them, plays in a tough league that won’t allow for them to make such a pretend run.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:39 PM ^
CBI! CBI! CBI!
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^
I appreciate that Rutgers has become a decent basketball team/program but watching our game against them in contrast with our game against OSU shows how both terrible, and amazing, basketball can be to watch.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:59 PM ^
The one constant in the 2 games -- crappy officiating helping the underdog.
February 23rd, 2021 at 12:56 PM ^
Weren't we technically the underdog against OSU? Or was that just per Kenpom?
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:29 PM ^
Maryland sure sticks out on Torvik’s at large prediction model. That’s a bold strategy, Cotton.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:44 PM ^
Many of the BM brackets haven't been updated to reflect their big road win at Rutgers yesterday so that's part of the disconnect. The other is that Torvik's model thinks they're a top 30 team and hence gives them good chances to pick up more quality wins.
February 23rd, 2021 at 8:15 AM ^
If I recall correctly, Maryland’s remaining games are winnable as well.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:33 PM ^
Ace....how badly does Northwestern have to play to end up in the same tier as Nebraska? They are lonely down there and I'm not sure how much worse it gets than a 13-game losing streak. PSU plays competitive in every game and has a good NET. MSU stinks...but they did just win a game. Northwestern belongs in the basement. By the name of all things Hoiberg - put them there!
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:46 PM ^
Tend to agree with this. Even Nebrasketball doesn't have a 13 game losing streak this year. I mean, they did lose 13 of the last 14 (not counting the win over something called "Doane" - google tells me it's an NAIA school).
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
They're still 40 spots and 6 ppg better than Nebraska in kenpom. For comparison, Iowa is one spot and less than one ppg worse than Michigan in kenpom and he has them in another tier (Illinois is two spots and less than two ppg behind M as well - from a metrics perspective those three are really tightly bunched, the I's have just managed to lose more games).
Also, take a look at that 13 game stretch. Absolutely brutal. The worst team they played the entire stretch was Penn State on the road. PSU is 34th in kenpom. That's the lowest rated team they played in 13 games! That's nuts. They lost by three. That was the only game out of the 13 against anyone in the bottom five of the conference.
So probably needs to get a lot worse. Nebraska is indeed in a tier of their own.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^
Having to cheer for MSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin against Illinois this week is going to be rough
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:46 PM ^
I'll happily cheer for the Illini over sparty.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:59 PM ^
Having to cheer for Nebraska and Wisconsin against Illinois this week is going to be rough
There, I fixed it for you.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^
The MSU # is off. If they beat either Illinois or OSU, their odds jump to ~35%
February 22nd, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
but they wont, so the number is probably pretty accurate
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:55 PM ^
Fingers crossed. No particular reason. I'm not superstitious. Just thought I'd cross my fingers. And announce that fact.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:55 PM ^
Frowny face is back! That's my big takeaway.
February 22nd, 2021 at 5:15 PM ^
The ILL@MSU game might be sneaky good, or state could lose by 30, again.
A) it’s at Breslin, B) their offense looked semi-competent with Langford running the point. (Amazing coaching job by Izzo to take 3/4 of a season to figure out a guy who has been on his team for 5 years is better running the point than Loyer/Hoggard/Watts, and this only happened because Loyer got hurt,) and C) Izzo has 30 fouls to use against Kofi. If Kofi has one of his poor FT games, there’s a chance. Or Ayo goes off and Illinois wins by 30.
February 22nd, 2021 at 8:47 PM ^
I’m torn. I want Staee to lose every game they ever play ever throughout time, but this is a good play for the Illini to slip up
February 23rd, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
I've been battling this myself. I think I'd rather see Illinois and OSU scorch Sparty to the sun this week and end any tourney talk for them. You know they're quietly believing that beating mediocre Indiana is the turnaround they've been waiting on.
February 22nd, 2021 at 7:10 PM ^
I'll probably get negged for it but M is not in its own tier. Illinois and Ohio State are right there with us.
February 22nd, 2021 at 7:38 PM ^
No, I agree. Fine with moving OSU down after beating them on the road, but I don't think you can put Illinois on a lower tier until we play or they falter.
February 23rd, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
Based on talent/ability I agree, but I think it's more than fair based on results to put us in a tier by ourselves
February 23rd, 2021 at 4:16 PM ^
Putting two projected one seeds in the NCAA tournament in different tiers doesn't make sense.
February 22nd, 2021 at 8:45 PM ^
Illinois is the same tier as Michigan for now.
February 23rd, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
tOSU is a very good BB team, but projecting them as a #1 seed might be a bit of a stretch. On Sunday two players --- Washington Jr and Liddell --- accounted for 61% of their 87 points. Taking one of those guys away for any reason and for a prolonged period would present real problems against a strong opponent. Of course, on Sunday Washington Jr probably could have worn a sleeping mask and still hit from outside; about everything he put up went in. But Liddell had the better all-around game, scoring 23 with 3 three-pointers and hauling down 10 RBs, all the while giving up about 5-6 inches to Hunter.
I don't follow Ohio State BB closely (!) but it appears that only two players --- Washington Jr and Liddell --- are the heart and soul of their team. Go Blue.
February 23rd, 2021 at 1:06 PM ^
What's the story on why OSU has been ranked/seeded higher than Illinois lately? The Illini have the better NET ranking and B1G record, and are the much more balanced team (~top 10 in both offense and defense, as opposed to a top 3 offense and atrocious defense). I get that OSU has the head to head win, and one more Q1 win (albeit with one more Q2 loss), but I feel like my amateur resume gazing would have switched Illinois and OSU.
February 23rd, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
Ugh...I never root for MSU basketball. (I desperately want to see them have to go to the NIT.) But them beating Illinois tonight would give us a little breathing room in the standings.
Do I do the unthinkable?
February 23rd, 2021 at 12:08 PM ^
I will undoubtably be cheering for Illinois. I would prefer to knock out Illinois on our own and not let MSU get any confidence heading into our back to back.
February 23rd, 2021 at 2:40 PM ^
Could you clarify what you mean by Tiers? Are they best team / most likely to make Final 4 (forward looking) or are they most likely to win BIG regular season title or some other resume evaluation (backward looking)?
If latter, I think you could move OSU and Iowa down a tier from Illinois. If forward looking, this is probably right, although I think Minn and Rutgers are better than their neighbors (I understand the desire to have less than 8 tiers).
Comments