The Bielfeldt Conundrum
[Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
Entering the season, Michigan expected Max Bielfeldt to reprise his role as the "break glass in case of emergency" third center for one last year before wishing him well in his future endeavors. Instead, Bielfeldt played his way ahead of Mark Donnal—more than doubling Donnal's minutes in conference play—and produced a little more on offense than starter Ricky Doyle.
With, for now, one scholarship open for 2015-16, it's no longer a certainty that Bielfeldt will move on from the program, even though he went through Senior Day festivities last weekend. The Daily's Lev Facher wrote yesterday that John Beilein hasn't ruled out a return...
“I would like him to go out and explore some options,” Beilein said. “We’ll look at some options and decide whether it’s a good option (for Bielfeldt) to come back.”
...and neither has Bielfeldt, who acknowledges the choice largely lies with Beilein:
“Honestly, I don’t know,” Bielfeldt said. “Family and friends ask me the same thing — I give them the same answer. I really don’t know. I just like knowing what my options are. I’m obviously just going to look for options and kinda weigh them out.”
This raises the obvious question: Is it a good idea to bring Bielfeldt back? The answer isn't as simple as it may appear.
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| Michigan's pursuit of 2015 German forward Moritz Wagner may preclude Bielfeldt's return. [Fuller] |
Caris LeVert's upcoming decision could play a huge role in Michigan's choice regarding Bielfeldt. Despite his injury, LeVert is still projected to go in the first round by both DraftExpress (#18) and Chad Ford (#30), but over the last month there's been increased optimism that he'll return for his senior season.
A LeVert return would put Michigan one scholarship away from the 13-man limit—before counting Bielfeldt. That makes the decision-making process more clear-cut.
Michigan hosted 6'10" German forward Mortiz Wagner for a visit last weekend. Wagner, who'd be a freshman in 2015-16, is reportedly leaning towards college ball over playing professionally, and Sam Webb expects Michigan will be the choice if he takes the collegiate route ($). Beilein isn't going to turn down a potential four years from a talented prospect for one more season of a backup-quality player, even if Wagner is much more wing than post.
The Wolverines are also reportedly one of several schools in pursuit of Seton Hall transfer Jaren Sina, who'll sit 2015-16 due to NCAA transfer rules before playing out his final two seasons of eligibility. Given how active Michigan got with both late-emerging recruits (MAAR, Dawkins) and transfer candidates (Cole Huff) after the end of last season, it wouldn't surprise to see even more names emerge if the Wagner recruitment falls through.
What seems clear is that Beilein is keeping the possibility of a Bielfeldt return open as a backup plan, which to me is the approach that makes the most sense. Doyle and Donnal will be better next year—and hopefully less plagued by illness—while DJ Wilson, after plenty of time in the weight and film rooms, should be able to provide spot minutes at the five. Ideally, at least two of those three would progress to the point where Beilein wouldn't need to call on Bielfeldt for significant minutes.
While Bielfeldt's play down the stretch was a pleasant surprise, he still doesn't project as more than an ancillary player on a good team—life is tough for a 6'7" post that doesn't possess game-changing athleticism. Even if LeVert goes pro, it might be best for both parties to look at other options; Bielfeldt could see a larger role at a smaller school (or get his post-basketball career started) while Michigan could continue building for the future. If all else falls through, however, Bielfeldt is a nice fallback plan if he wants to return; he's proven he can be a contributor on this team.
Who would be captain next season? Assuming Caris leaves
A lot of options, but Spike is a no brainer. Walton & Irvin easy choices as well.
I think it's pretty clear we will be looking to fill his spot. Between transfers, wagner, and another offseason for Donnal, Doyle, Chatman, and Wilson, Max should be pretty far down the bench.
I mean this with all due respect: Max is one of the worst passers I have ever seen. I cannot stand it when he does that overhand inbound pass because half the time the ball goes into the crowd.
I think there's a big difference between not asking a potential fifth-year guy back and shoving a kid out the door before that. A potential fifth-year guy has had four years to get his degree. And he can go play somewhere else right away if he has his degree.
To me, a college athletic scholarship should be a promise of 4 years and a degree. Nothing more and nothing less. I take no issue with what Beilein is doing here.
Even if we need to use the scholarships, Max could still return, just not on scholarship. He'd be in grad school like any other grad student. It is my understanding that his family has the financial wherewithal to handle this. Now I am not saying this is what Max ought to do, because he needs to weigh his options (he might enjoy playing time at a MAC/MVC school), but it is an option.
Not really. Max will (in theory) have a degree and can transfer without issue. Alabama kicks out guys entering their third year because they are at the bottom of the depth chart. The "firm handshake" given to the 5th-years happens everywhere and, unless I'm totally off-base, generally accepted as a solid and upright policy for "roster management".
Huge difference is Coach B will help with the process and you know he will.
Given that we currently have Austin Hatch on active scholarship - when we would be fully justified putting him on the medical reserve - it's silly to compare us to Alabama football.
Just don't string the kid along and wait until 10 options fall through to ask him back. If he explores and finds a good opprtunity for himself, and he wants to go, let him go- even if it looks like many of our options have fallen through at that time.
I hope he gets asked back as a grad assistant if he sees coaching in his future.
Is supect he'll work with Beilein to figure out the best option. It would behoove him to look around and see what is out there, just like it is in Michigan's best interests to see about other players in the event he leaves/they need to go in a different direction.
Maybe Beilfeldt decides to go early. Maybe he decides to wait until it is clear there is no room. It isn't that Beilein is stringing him along. And because of the time commitment (i.e., 4 years,) Beilein can't hand out offers like candy.
Specifically, I would wait until the following possibilities are gone:
- Jaylen Brown. (5 star, # 2 ESPN, #2 Rivals, #1 Scout.)
- Caleb Swanigan. (5 star, #8 ESPN, #17 Rivals, #11 Scout. Unlikely.)
- Moritz Wagner. (Germany, High interest.)
- Pina (5th year transfer.)
- Wildcard (I've learned Beilein always has something up his sleeve.)
If none of these four plus one happen, plus LaVert stays, then yes, extend a fifth year to Beilfeldt. If LaVert stays, and Moritz wants to come, and Brown wants to come, well, we have to find a way to make room for all of them. Even if that meant Beilfeldt not returning, and Hatch taking a medical or special scholarship the rest of the way.
Someone should have taken Mo Wagner to the M-Den or given him an MGoShirt before the basketball game. The Nets? Really??
I really think Donnal might be the one left out. I was not impressed with him this year and he seemed over his head, especially during the BIG TEN season. I would not be surprised to see him transfer.
People need to stop assuming or implying that any young player that struggles is going to transfer. Not every kid is going to make an instant impact. Michigan is a very young team this year, if every young player who struggles initially transfers like some people want that will never change.
We could have said the same about Bielfeldt after his freshman or sophomore years. I won't give up on a freshman big man.
opinion just as I am, but I really don't like it when you and others talk on a public forum about a kid transfering. Wether it's that you think he might transfer or you think that he should transfer, it is really offensive. You can talk in general about "someone" might transfer, but when you name the player it is like telling the whole world that this guy isn't good enough to play here and never will be. He is a redshirt freshman and has plenty of time to develope. Many thought that Jordan Morgan would never be a contributor at Michigan and earlier this year, were ready to write off Chatman. I have expressed my own dissapointment over Chatman, but I never suggested that he should or might transfer.
I don't mean to take this all out on you personnaly, but I am really upset with all of this transfer talk. There, I feel a little better.
Well stated. The transfer talk, when based on nothing, is annoying.
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:21 AM ^
I feel that Wilson is purely a 5 on this team for the foreseable future. Maybe once his knowledge of the game improves (he was really rough in the pre-season games) there's hope for a lanky 6'9" PF but right now I think Beilein will mostly roll with him at the 5. I say that because there's obviously a need on this team for three players to play that position and because Donnal and Doyle still have work to do and I also see Wilson's skill set (shot-blocking, athleticism, height) a better fit for needs there than at PF. You could almost argue that Donnal is almost just as likely to fit at stretch-4 than Wilson based on his size and skill set.
I think the 5 is an easy way to work Wilson in slowly. I think Chatman, Robinson, and Dawkins are going to push for time at the 4. I love the idea of Wilson playing the middle of a 2-3 or 1-3-1 zone to use his long arms and athleticism to disrupt things. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'll believe that Beilein will role with a 2-man center position and Wilson will play the 4 as his primary position when I see it.
Lets assume for a second LeVert is gone and Wagner is not a contributor either.
Walton and Irvin are playing 35 mpg. Dawkins looks to have earned around 30. Spike is playing at least 20, probably closer to 30. Robinson we don't know, but lets say 10 minimum 30 maximum. Chatman and MAAR will probably deserve 10 minutes each as well.
For spots 1-4 there are 160 minutes available and I just accounted for 150-180 for the above personnel. So who are you going to send to the bench to get Wilson time at the 4? The crunch only gets bigger (louder?) if you add Levert to the mix.
Meanwhile, the 5 is the team's weakest position. Doyle's 20 mpg will presumably bump closer to 25-30 but fouls and certain matchups will still be a problems. That leaves 10-15 minutes for someone else. Candidates are Donnal, or Bielfeldt if he comes back, and Wilson.
So -- do you want to steal 10 minutes of time from Donnal/Bielfeldt or from Chatman/MAAR/Spike/Robinson/Dawkins?
I think given Beilein's track record and the roster needs we should lock Wilson into the 5 spot until at least Teske arrives on campus.
Coach B will make the correct call here, whichever way it goes. Max and his calves are not a bad fall back situation if needed. That being said, I'd love to have Caris back and/or Wagner.
Playing time wasn't supposed to be easy to get this year. Maybe he sees that he can be a major contributor to a B1G title run and sticks around.
He won't screw Max over. He'll do the right things.
OK, so I'm going to be That Guy. Is Hatch expected to occupy one of the 13 roster spots for 4 years?
I also think that Doyle, while somewhat disappointing so far, can fill his shoes. Even as I salute his contribution, I see a pretty strong likelihood that he moves on.
Doesn't putting Hatch on medical hardship open a scholarship for next year as well?
I think his story is quite inspiring and hope that he remains with the team in some/any capacity, but in the NCAA to waste a scholarship on a kid that will only play inspiration minutes is severely handcuffing yourself.
He's arleady come so far, I think the motivation to get back to playing shape cotinues to drive him. Understand your point but am guessing scholarship stays with him.
keeping Hatch on scholarship for four years even if he never plays.
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he wants Max to look around and Michigan will look around and then they will get together and see what makes the most sense. If Max wants to leave for a better situation, by all means, wish him well. If UM can get Wagner, by all means get him. If we can't use the scholarship on Wagner or anyone else of top quality, then invite Max back for a final year. He is and can continue to be a valuable part of the team. The only real issue that I see here is the timeline. It is not fair to Max to string this out too long.
Prior to the season I argued he'd have a bigger role than people expected due to experience.
But with 3 centers back Michigan doesn't need him and would be wise to add another lottery ticket a la Burke, LeVert, Dawkins (and yeah Brundige, Christian, Smotrycz too.)
Max is better than Donnal right now and sometimes better than Doyle even. But the rate of improvement for those guys should be more than Max and by next year Max's role would again be marginal. He's a skilled dude and should look to develop his game elsewhere for a potential career abroad if he wants it.
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March 10th, 2015 at 10:04 PM ^
I truly believe that to have real success especially in the tournament you HAVE to have quality post players. Look back 20 years and I would say 95% of all elite 8 and especially final 4 teams have top tier 5's and or 4's.
I think if Doyle progresses and JB can land Wagner or another 6'10"/11" guy and levert comes back you're looking at another deep tourney run type team. I think Wilson and Donnal have a boatload of work to do. Teske joins the team in 2016 but he may need a year of development. The bigs are so important!
but what if mcgary was back this year???? but for the silly ncaa, he would have been back. would have been a much different story, don't you think??
before the season started, if he got any significant minutes, i thought we would be in trouble. he got significant minutes, and we had a mediocre year.
however, i couldn't be more happy for max. he had a lot of great moments and if there is a schollie available for next year, i hope he comes back. he is not just a roster spot, he is a contributor. kudos to him and his hard work.
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