Yesterday we concluded our The Enemy, Ranked series, covering the nine B1G teams who find themselves on Michigan's schedule this 2023 season. But how about the four teams not on the schedule, all out of the B1G West? As I mentioned throughout the series, some of these teams are among the stronger B1G foes and feature talent in the trenches and in the secondary/at QB missing from The Enemy series. Today we will break down each of those four teams, their strengths, weaknesses, and project out their season. 

Wisconsin

No team in the B1G underwent a larger change this offseason than Wisconsin, and I'm including Northwestern in that. The Badgers opted to abandon the DNA of what made Wisconsin Football successful for nearly three decades, not just moving away from the Barry Alvarez coaching tree by hiring Luke Fickell, but letting Fickell scrap the bully ball offense in favor of an Air Raid attack(!) led by former North Carolina OC Phil Longo. On defense, Jim Leonhard's 3-4 system that churned out star OLBs is out in favor of Mike Tressel's 3-3-5, a seismic shock to the program on par with the San Francisco earthquake of 1906. Everything about Badger football is about to change and it makes Wisconsin one of America's most fascinating teams in 2023. 

Offense

It's not just that the scheme has changed... the roster looks significantly different as well. Yes, Braelon Allen is still around, a star RB who is probably the second best back in the conference behind Blake Corum. The run game he engineers in tandem with Chez Mellusi is a great balancing weapon to have next to the completely re-made passing attack headed up by transfer QB Tanner Mordecai from SMU. Over two seasons with the Mustangs after transferring from Oklahoma, where he was coached by Lincoln Riley as a backup behind Jalen Hurts, Mordecai completed 66.4% of his passes for 8.0 Y/A, 72 TD to 22 INT. The upgrade Mordecai represents over Graham Mertz is astronomical and gives Wisconsin the best QB in the B1G West. 

Rebooting the receiving corps was an area of emphasis for Luke Fickell, even though the top three pass-catchers off last season's ho-hum Wisconsin WR room return, with Chimere Dike being the top target. Fickell added four transfer WRs(!) in addition to those three established returners, two transfers from Cincy, a promising RS Fr 4* from USC, and Bryson Green, who racked up 723 receiving yards over two seasons with OKST. I'm not sure if there will be a Dude in this receiving corps, but between seven lottery tickets, at least three should be solid targets for Mordecai to throw to. 

The biggest question with the offense is the offensive line. OL Coach Bob Bostad is out (hired by Indiana), with Longo bringing Jack Bicknell Jr. with him from UNC. Bicknell's first order of business will be finding a line of five starters and then teaching them a brand new blocking system that is diametrically different from what Wisconsin has run forever. The Badger OL also declined considerably in the last years of the Chryst era, finishing only 70th in average line yards last year. The good news is 3.5 starters return and Fickell brings two former All-AAC OL with him from Cincy (Joe Huber and Jake Renfro), so experience is here, but getting five guys to gel as a unit and get a hang of a new scheme is the big question. If they can get even a decent OL, between Mordecai leading the passing game and the prowess of Allen on the ground, the Wisconsin offense could be terrific. But there are also a lot of moving parts, possible transition costs and it's not a sure thing that it all works in year 1. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Wisconsin defense and the rest of the teams]

[Bryan Fuller]

Defense

The Wisconsin defense does not bring back as many starters as the offense, but they do roll over seven from a defense that was top 15 in SP+ last season. There is a scheme change moving to Tressel's 3-3-5, but it's not as dramatic of a change as what is going on on offense, so I do anticipate fewer transition costs. The seven starters include LB Maema Njongmeta, 3rd Team All-B1G last season and a favorite of PFF's, as well as EDGE/OLB CJ Goetz, DL James Thompson Jr., and S Hunter Wohler, all pretty good players. They plug in a BC transfer at nickel, Jason Maitre, and the sum total is a pretty experienced defense. 

Based on the depth chart I'm projecting at the moment, the four new starters next to the returners include the aforementioned transfer nickel, a NT who has gotten substantial snaps each of the last two seasons, and then DBs who logged 200+ snaps last year. No one is particularly inexperienced and this is a decently deep roster, with players like Darian Varner and Jeff Pietrowski, who were quality contributors at Temple and MSU, respectively, perhaps not even in line to start. It still has that mercenary feel that the whole team has, but if the pieces can stick together and get a hang of Tressel's scheme, there's no reason they can't be a top 20 defense again, which, if the offense comes on-line, is enough to get this team to Indy. 

The Schedule 

Wisconsin's non-conference schedule has two easier games and then one of the more interesting Week 2 games nationally, an under-the-lights trip to Washington State. The Cougars don't seem to be a juggernaut, but that is far from an easy game and will be an early litmus test of the Fickell regime and whether the Badgers can make a serious run at the B1G crown this season. Wisconsin does have a decently easy B1G schedule, drawing both Rutgers and Indiana out of the East, although the third team is their "rival", Ohio State. The game is in Madison, though, so it's as much a hard game for Wisconsin as it is a trap game for the Bucks. Wisconsin goes to Minnesota and Illinois but they host Iowa in what some are viewing as the de facto B1G West title game. I'm not so sure, but this is definitely not a tremendously hard schedule. 

Projection 

At the end of the day, the fate of the Wisconsin season really comes down to the coaching and transition cost side of things. If the costs are low and things come together schematically early on, Wisconsin is the prohibitive favorite in the B1G West, perhaps only challenged by Iowa. They have a top notch RB, very good QB, loads of experience on both sides of the ball (Bill Connelly had them 27th in returning production), and are plenty talented for the B1G West. Not to mention the fact that the coaches being imported were quite successful at their previous schools. But despite all those reasons for hype, there's certainly a world where it doesn't gel, the team is slow out of the gate, and loses some close games and finds themselves at 8-4 and sitting home in early December. 

[Bryan Fuller]

Iowa

The Hawkeyes are likely the B1G West team of most interest to Michigan fans given the presence of two quite notable transfers, but the Wolverines will not cross paths with Iowa unless they are to meet in Indianapolis. With a new-look QB room and a defense that still projects to be as good as ever, there is certainly a chance that Iowa could get there. 

Offense 

Hello there, Cade McNamara. The one-time Michigan signal-caller is now at the helm of the offense for Iowa and while he may not quite be Mertz --> Mordecai level of an upgrade, going from Spencer Petras to Cade is a considerable boost for the Iowa offense. The addition of Erick All to replace Sam LaPorta is not too shabby either. When paired with Luke Lachey, the Hawkeyes have a strong TE tandem like usual that should give McNamara targets. The WRs project to be rather iffy again since it's many of the same players, though they did add transfers Kaleb Brown (4* top 100 RS Fr from Ohio State) and Seth Anderson (star at Charleston Southern). 

The RB position also improved as last season went along, with true freshman Kaleb Johnson emerging as a pleasant surprise. Now as a sophomore, expect the Hawkeye offense to get production from its backs (Leshon Williams is still around backing up Johnson). The problem remains whether those backs can get an iota of help from the offensive line and whether that line can protect McNamara, a pretty big concern given his well-known immobility. The once-mighty Iowa OL has been a superfund site for years now, ranking 128th in Football Outsiders' average line yards stat last year(!!). The team does return four starters and adds a decent transfer from Miami (OH), so there is experience and continuity, but drastic improvement is needed to get this offense to respectability. 

And that's before we talk about Brian Ferentz. Wait, actually, we don't need to talk about Brian Ferentz. He's a doofus, we all know that. The reality with this Iowa offense is that in spite of Ferentz's incompetence, there are the pieces to have a decent offense IF they can great adequate pass protection. However, given Cade's weaknesses and inability to extend the play, if the OL is as bad as it was last year, upgrades at QB and growth at RB/WR may not matter at all because it's very difficult to imagine McNamara running an even competent offense without protection from his line. That OL is the X-Factor. 

[Patrick Barron]

Defense

Expect this to be awesome again. Yes, Iowa lost two first round draft picks, plus several more established stars in their secondary, yet I don't see a ton of drop-off coming for a team that was #1 in SP+ defense last season. They lost Lukas Van Ness up front, but he only got rotational snaps anyway and was drafted off of his potential. Three returning starters are present on the DL + two players who got rotational snaps last year. At the LB level, superstar Jack Campbell graduated but Iowa is able to plug in an All-ACC LB in Nick Jackson from Virginia. 

Jump up to the secondary and it's a similar story. Corner Riley Moss left as a third round pick, but Iowa figures to get Jermari Harris back from injury, who was a rock solid starter back in 2021. Oh, and Cooper DeJean is still around, one of the three best B1G corners for my money. At safety the Hawkeyes lose longtime starter Kaevon Merriweather, but are able to plug in Xavier Nwankpa, a local 5* they were able to keep at home in the 2022 class. Nwankpa redshirted last year, but one of the games he played in was the Music City Bowl, which he started and excelled in. 

Long story short, Iowa has seven returning defensive starters and slots in experienced and/or talented players in the holes. With Phil Parker still the DC, I have every reason to believe this will be a top 10-15 defense again. This group will keep Iowa in games. 

The Schedule

Iowa's non-con is a couple of softballs at home + ¡El Assico!, which is in Ames this season. In B1G play, Iowa draws Rutgers and MSU at home out of the East but has to go to Penn State, which is a bit tougher of a draw than Wisconsin got. Also, as mentioned in the previous section, Wisconsin has the battle for the Heartland Trophy at home. Iowa does host Minnesota in the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale and hosts Illinois, so it isn't the most challenging schedule, either. I think you'd rather have the Badgers' schedule, but there's nothing incredibly terrifying on Iowa's either. 

Projection

Again, it all comes down to the OL for me. If they can get up to ~70th in line yards, I can start to buy some Iowa stock. If they're in the hundreds again, I struggle to see how this offense will do enough to get them where they want to be. Yes, Cade is an upgrade over Petras in the abstract, but if Iowa can't give Cade what he needs to succeed, I think that upgrade will be less than hoped. The defense being elite will get them to bowl eligibility regardless; they won eight games (seven in the regular season) last year even with that appalling offense. But to knock off Wisconsin, take the B1G West, and threaten for double digit wins, substantial improvement is needed on offense and it can't just come from QB alone. Help will be needed in both coaching and OL play. But relying on Brian Ferentz and the 2020s Iowa offensive line is a pretty terrifying proposition. 

[Patrick Barron]

Illinois

Coming off a season where Illinois was the most talented team in the B1G West but cost themselves a trip to Indy due to four painful one-score defeats, the Illinois Fighting Illini are still on track with Bret Bielema in charge. They lose some major pieces, but should still be a solid team in 2023. 

Offense

Illinois is going to have a new QB for the third straight season. This time it's Luke Altmyer, a top 200 overall recruit in the 2021 class who didn't beat out Jaxon Dart at Ole Miss. We don't have much on-field evidence with Altmyer, but obviously he was a talented player in HS. Can he be better at Tommy DeVito? Sure. Don't think I'd bank on it, because DeVito was an admirable soldier for Illinois, but certainly a player with Altmyer's recruiting pedigree could be better. 

A bigger loss for the offense than DeVito was the graduation of star RB Chase Brown, who rushed for nearly 1,700 yards last season. Brown was the best part of the offense, but it isn't totally barren in his absence. Reggie Love showed some moments in 2022 as a backup to Brown and Josh McCray held that role down with success in 2021 before missing last season with injury. They probably won't have a star at this position, but the Illini are well positioned to mitigate the damage. 

Altmyer is handed some decent targets to throw to, with all three of Isaiah Williams, Pat Bryant, and Casey Washington returning, three of the top four passcatchers from last season. Williams in particular is an intriguing and versatile offensive piece who can run with the ball and catch passes. Last year's OL was not particularly great... three starters return, promoting a new RS So center and adding a JUCO right tackle to round out the unit. This offense was iffy last season and I don't foresee it being a ton better, unless Altmyer really pops. The defense will need to do the heavy lifting for Illinois.

[Patrick Barron]

Defense

Changes for Illinois' defense start at the top with the departure of DC Ryan Walters, hired as Purdue's new HC. His prized secondary got devastated too, superstar corner Devon Witherspoon is out the door, followed by S Sydney Brown and HSP Quan Martin, all of whom were impact pieces. CB Tahveon Nicholson is back and should be one of the better corners in the B1G this season, but many other players in the secondary are inexperienced, be it sophomores, true freshmen, or transfers. Tyler Strain showed some flashes in the bowl game and could suit up as a corner or nickel. 

I expect Illinois' front six/seven to be pretty strong, making up for some of the turnover in the secondary. Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton is a superstar defensive tackle and All-American candidate and he's joined by Keith Randolph, third team All-B1G last season. Illinois is replacing the NT in between them, but that defensive line should be formidable. Their OLB/EDGE position returns Gabe Jacas and Seth Coleman, who both are rock solid players. Tarique Barnes suits back up at MLB, while they do have a new WILL. Illinois has one of the best defensive fronts in the conference and that will ensure that this defense has success. Can it be as good as last year's unit? Probably not, or at the very least it will be difficult to replicate. But a good defense? Yeah, there are still more than enough good pieces to put up positive results. 

The Schedule

Illinois' non-conference schedule has underrated watchability, hosting Toledo, a dangerous MAC team, and then playing the feisty Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence. FAU at home should be a gimme, but before they play that game they will host Penn State(!) on September 16. By the end of the season's opening month (they close @Purdue), we should know quite a bit about this squad. We mentioned PSU, but Illinois also gets Indiana at home (should be a win) but must go to Maryland (feels like a tossup) out of the East. They do bring Wisconsin to Champaign, but have to travel to Minnesota and Iowa. In terms of winning the West, it's not the easiest draw but again, from a watchability stand-point, Illinois should be in a lot of competitive games. 

Projection

It doesn't quite feel like Illinois' year, but they will be in the hunt. Their year was last year, but various factors converged to throw that away. Oh well. This is a program still pointing in the right direction, having gone 13-12 in their first two seasons under Bielema after going 17-39 in the Lovie Smith era. And so long as they don't get stung majorly by the close loss bug again, I expect Illinois to be in a bowl game. Altmyer is a major wildcard for this team, but there are enough skill position guys to have an okay offense and a still-solid defense will carry them to some wins. It's the B1G West, there are enough games on the schedule (vs.Toledo, FAU, Nebraska, IU, NW) to get them right up to bowl eligibility. Win a couple close ones and 6-7 wins are doable. If the threshold to win the West is only 8 like last year, they have a decent shot. But I'm not sure 10+ wins is in the cards, and there is certainly the chance that Wisconsin or Iowa could hit that if all goes right. 

Poor AJ Henning [Bryan Fuller]

Northwestern

Wellllll this is a mess, eh? Pat Fitzgerald is out in Evanston after 17 seasons leading the Wildcats due to the fallout from the hazing scandal. David Braun, the recently hired DC from North Dakota State, is the interim head coach and boy does he have his work cut out for him. Northwestern went 1-11 last season, losing every game after the season-opening win in Ireland, and are 4-20 in the last two seasons. 

Offense

In three of the past four seasons, Northwestern's offense has been tanked in part by a disastrous QB situation. Hunter Johnson in 2019, Ryan Hilinski in 2021, and then a messy mix of Hilinski, Brendan Sullivan, and Cole Freeman last year. Thankfully, Northwestern does have a seemingly real QB this season, transfer Ben Bryant. After sitting for three years behind Desmond Ridder at Cincy, Bryant transferred to EMU, played well for the Eagles, then transferred back to Cincy and started in Luke Fickell's last season. Over his two FBS campaigns as a starter, Bryant has thrown 35 TDs to 14 INTs, 7.7 Y/A, and 65.1% completion. That figures to be a huge upgrade for the 'Cats.

Sullivan is handed a few interesting skill position pieces, but nothing too special. Cam Porter is an okay RB (Evan Hull departs), Charlie Mangieri returns from injury, and the additions of transfer receivers Cam Johnson (once decent at Vandy) and Old Friend AJ Henning give them some options, but it's still bottom tier for the conference and we don't know if the offensive line will give them anything. Just two starters return on the OL for a team that was 114th in line yards and one of those departing starters was star tackle Peter Skoronski (1st round pick). The offense should be better by virtue of having a semi-competent QB, but I don't think the infrastructure is in place around him to help this unit succeed at all. Not enough star-level weapons (and by that I mean zero) and an OL there is little reason to believe in after the last couple seasons. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Defense

Northwestern's defense ranked 77th in SP+ last season, particularly bad when you remember they're a B1G West school and are playing the offenses that they are (the metric tries to opponent adjust but I've long held there's a B1G West blindspot there). As if that wasn't problematic enough, now they lose the defense's best player in Adetomiwa Adebawore, who went in the 4th round of the NFL Draft. From that perspective, things are looking extremely down for Northwestern defensively. 

However, you can make the case for improvement too. New DC David Braun represents a fresh set of eyes in coordinating the defense and they roll over eight starters on this side of the ball. The DL may be weaker with the loss of Adebawore and one more starter, but six of the pieces in their back seven return. There are also some veteran leaders around to provide continuity and a bridge between the old coordinator and the new one. Multi-year starter at MIKE Bryce Gallagher appears to be the no-doubt leader of the defense and a pair of senior DBs are also back, Rod Heard at corner/nickel and S Coco Azema. I think the most likely scenario is perhaps slight improvement on defense, but there is also a world where losing Adebawore does more damage than perhaps anticipated and the 'Cats are routinely blown off the ball in the trenches so badly that the rest of the defense can't recover. 

The Schedule

Northwestern begins the season with a game that no one should be allowed to watch, Sunday afternoon on September 3 at Rutgers. Their non-conference schedule does serve up two winnable games, home vs. UTEP (projected to be one of the worst teams in the FBS) and Howard (FCS), but Northwestern did lose to both Southern Illinois and Miami (OH) last season so I wouldn't bank on it. They draw PSU and Maryland at home + that road trip to Rutgers out of the East but does any of this really matter? Is there a path to a bowl game? It's very hard to see at this time without significant improvements on both sides of the ball. 

Projection 

That hypothetical improvement on both sides of the ball is not easy when you're only returning 12 starters and two of the players you lost were your primary stars. Continuity in the secondary and LB level + an upgrade at QB are useful, don't get me wrong. The fact that they were 1-6 in games decided by 10 points or fewer last year and were -19 in turnovers(!!) are obvious indicators pointing towards improvement for this team too. But the coaching chaos that has ensued in the offseason has me wondering if there's enough focus in the program to bank that improvement and get them up to ~4 wins that I think was reasonable to expect if Fitzgerald were still here. Unless a miracle happens, the base line is not going to change much for Northwestern and whoever takes over this program next offseason will be in for a very difficult re-build.