in approximately five minutes the hero will walk in and all talk will stop[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The Bar Is More Dust Than Solid And Is Probably Named "The Black Rose" Or Similar Comment Count

Brian January 30th, 2019 at 3:59 PM

1/29/2019 – Michigan 65, Ohio State 49 – 20-1, 9-1 Big Ten

One of the most unexpected constants of the John Beilein era at Michigan has been the point guard's lip curl. The program has cycled between radically different styles of point—pick and roll pterodactyl man Darius Morris, all-conquering Trey Burke, pull-up assassin Derrick Walton, and now anger bulldog Zavier Simpson. But every single one of them could have said this:

May have taken Walton a while to round into his true Michigan point guard form, but he got there. Everyone else had that attitude from the drop. John Beilein's most unexpected talent is wading into the vast pool of available point guard talents every few years and finding the guy who is, in his heart of hearts, a Danny Trejo character. If I walk into a bar filled with former Michigan point guards I'm walking right out. Bullets and tequila are about to fly.

Even so, Simpson is the dogg amongst dogs. The dirtiest dude in town.

When the Virginia-NC State game went to overtime I had to scramble through the usual "you haven't updated your Playstation, also you haven't updated this app, also please register this device, oh and if you click on the ESPN2 broadcast you get a null pointer exception" rigamarole.

By the time I got the game on it had already started and I was listening to the Spanish broadcast. Amongst rapid-fire Spanish my ancient high school classes can't keep up with came two phrases, clear as a bell: "sky hook" and "Kareem Abdul-Jabbar." They did not clap like seals. It sounded like they wanted to, like every announce crew, like everyone on twitter, like even Deadspin. Like me.

And sure why not:

The hook shot, while delightful and a key component of Simpson's evolution into a functional offensive player, is only the most visible facet of the bizarre whole. The guy who just put up a triple double makes no sense. But he just put up a triple double, so this is the time for Simpson-related message board recriminations, the time when some random guy pops on to scold people for writing Simpson off when he was a freshman.

It was entirely rational to write Simpson off! Simpson was a "6 foot" point guard who literally did not have a jump shot. Beilein took the unusual step of grabbing grad-transfer Jaaron Simmons after Simpson's freshman year because it looked for all the world like Michigan had no point guard. Nine games into his sophomore year Simpson had taken a total of six twos and had gotten benched for Eli Brooks. If at some point you did not write Zavier Simpson off you are his dad or insane.

Most folks who find themselves at that crossroad never recover, because they're there for a reason. Carlton Brundidge did not prove the haters wrong. Ibi Watson did not shove it in in the skeptics' faces. There are few dynamic lizard escapes once you're in the "change or die" phase of a career.

Simpson didn't really change, though. He doubled down on being Zavier Simpson. He's still a 50% free throw shooter and a 30% three-point shooter with a set shot. He's also the head of the spear for a 20-1 team. He's all the things a modern point guard isn't, and if he scores in the same way a 7'2" guy in goggles did that's total nonsense and perfect sense at the same time.

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[Campredon]

[After THE JUMP: lotion is NOT MENTIONED]

BULLETS

I am ill! Sorry about the lateness. I have small children and they are putting my immune system through quality assurance.

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[Campredon]

Well, then. Michigan's defense would be a Kenpom-era record if sustained through the end of the regular season:

And Michigan is doing this in a strange way: they're shutting off three pointers without giving up much of anything on twos. And they're not fouling. Or giving up offensive rebounds. They're in the top 30 of eight different categories on Kenpom: eFG, 3P%, 2P%, DREBs, FTA/FGA, 3PA/FGA, assist rate allowed, and, uh, FT defense. They're also 345th in defensive tempo, which means teams struggle to find good shots.

There's only one factor they're not in the 90th+ percentile, and that's forcing turnovers. Which they're still pretty good at!

Michigan does everything well, the end. I've never seen anything like it.

RELATED. Presented without comment because I cannot think of anything to say that won't get me in trouble.

Poole doing Poole things. He was Michigan's top scorer but also its least efficient player, which was a surprise to me when I checked the box score because it felt more like a "Poole is back!" game instead of a continuation of his recent funk. He was… variable. 3/10 from three felt better because the first three attempts were all on the same trip down the court. After long rebounds off two good looks, a third came and Poole, being Poole, wasn't going to let the previous misses affect him.

That confidence also led to three turnovers and some high degree of difficulty shots. This is the tao of Poole. Oh and also:

 

Bet Kaleb Wesson didn't expect to get thunderblocked by Poole and Simpson in the same game.

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[Campredon]

Yellin'! Whole lot of nothin' after Simpson complained about a screen Kaleb Wesson set that he felt was too elbow-to-the-temple for his tastes. Immediate techs for Simpson and Wesson without much of anything happening probably means that there were Words Exchanged, which is of course in the great and fine traditions of Michigan point-guardery.

They did tell him. I mean, you'd have to:

ANN ARBOR -- At the final media timeout, two of Michigan's assistants whispered the same thing to Zavier Simpson: "Get another rebound." …

After Simpson was made aware he was close during the timeout, he glanced at the scoreboard, which shows player stats. “That’s when I looked up and was like, ‘Wow, this is real,’” he said. Asked if he was hunting for that last rebound, he said, “In a way, yeah, I was. But I didn’t want to hunt too much. But then again, I didn’t want to miss out on this opportunity. My teammates told me to get it. Two of 'em could’ve gotten the rebound. I said, ‘Ay, I’m here!’ and they kind of let it bounce to me.”

Assists have only been tracked by Michigan since 77-78 so several Michigan luminaries were not capable of registering a triple-double. Even so this was only the sixth in Michigan history and one of just three to do it against a real opponent:

Five of the six have been in the Beilein era.

Okay but also. Zero turnovers! That should be its own thing. If you get a triple double with zero turnovers that's the difference between a no-hitter and a perfect game.

Coaches on Simpson. An excerpt from an extensive Brian Snow column on Michigan:

In talking with a few Big Ten coaches over the past few weeks, it is clear how much respect they have for Michigan’s starting point guard, Zavier Simpson. In fact, one coach told me, “He totally changed their program”.

…Simpson is someone who can take the opposing offense out of their flow with his pressure on the ball handler, and then also he has the ability redirect the opposing point guard without being called for fouls.

Being able to do those two things is huge in disrupting an offense, and it shows in Michigan’s defense. …

Opposing coaches absolutely love Simpson. They think he is far and away the most indispensable player on the roster, and someone who totally changed Michigan from what they were 13 months ago, until now.

He's also relatively down on the current roster's NBA potential after talking with NBA scouts. Would be nice to get Poole and Brazdeikis back.

Checking in with nonconference foes. Michigan's a bit fortunate that the Big Ten is what it is this year because despite two marquee nonconference foes their overall schedule was still meh. Kenpom has their NCSOS at 300. NET is much kinder, ranking it 157th. That still might be a problem since most of the other teams around them are in a significantly better spot and the committee loves to over-value NCSOS. So it would be nice if the wins Michigan had held up.

They're mostly doing so:

  • Villanova is 7-0 in Big East play and 21st in Kenpom. They're projected to finish the regular season 24-7 and 15-3. Down Big East but that might be a four seed.
  • UNC is 6-1 in ACC play and projected to go 23-8, 13-5.
  • South Carolina's in the midst of a bizarre season: they were 5-8 in nonconference play with losses to Stony Brook, and Wyoming, amongst many others. But they're 5-2 in the SEC with wins against tourney-bound Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn teams. They're not going to the postseason but that's a nice bonus.
  • Providence is a disappointment, 3-4 in the Big East and probably not headed to the tourney.

Also Michigan's December win against Purdue is looking better and better as the Boilers ignited, Beilein-style, in January. Michigan does not have to travel to Mackey to face the Trevion Williams and Functional Bench Guys version of the Boilers, which is probably for the best.

Check your inner ear. Kaleb Wesson falls down and stays down more than anyone else I've ever seen on a basketball court. Also Michigan was apparently content to let Wesson shoot from three and after a couple duck-in buckets in the first five minutes Teske teske'd up and held him to 1/6, with the two recovery blocks from Michigan his other two misses.

The flop-ish. It's bad for basketball that the only way to get an offensive foul call is to set yourself up to go down like Poole did. I wouldn't call it a flop because there was no way Poole could stay on his feet given how much contact he took but he was doing one thing and one thing only there. Meanwhile we're coming off a game against Minnesota where Teske got bulled into by Jordan Murphy over and over again and it was only a call once. I dunno, man.

Meanwhile, Poole's other two fouls both looked like completely fine plays where he was in legal guarding position and took a bump to the chest with his hands up. Isn't that the point? On ball players shouldn't get called for taking contact in the center of their chest, ever.

And yes, Dan Dakich was extraordinarily irritating after that call considering the fact that he had just bemoaned Brad Davison not getting a much clearer flop in the Wisconsin game.

Comments

stephenrjking

January 30th, 2019 at 4:17 PM ^

On the one hand, I'd love to get Poole and Iggy (and Teske) back. That sounds like a wire-to-wire #1-#2 team in the country to me.

On the other, I want the team to win this year. The FF is in Minneapolis. If they go, I can go. 

And if they win, guys are probably going pro.

Oh well. Just win baby. 

TrueBlue2003

January 30th, 2019 at 4:53 PM ^

Not necessarily a given guys will go pro. 

This team has gone 20-1 without anyone leaping out as an NBA player because of the balance and the way they win (whole is greater than sum of parts).  So they're already playing well enough to win a regional as is.

And the underlying things that the NBA looks for like athleticism, length, potential, etc. won't necessarily change if a guy gets hot.  Matthews was excellent in the tourney last year, won the regional MVP, and it didn't really budge his value.  You could see the same thing happen with Iggy in which he gets hot and maybe the NBA shrugs if he's still not distributing and remains a question mark on defense.

Regardless, just win baby. 

This program is in a really good place.  I said it after last year when I argued this team might (and likely would) be even better: we're just reloading now. Wait til you see the current freshmen next year after a year in the system and don't write off an incoming freshman as a contributor.

WCHBlog

January 30th, 2019 at 4:23 PM ^

I haven't isolated the first three stages, but Wesson absolutely losing his mind after Simpson made a small comment while walking by, to the point that he drew his fourth foul as a tech, was him entering Stage Four of the Zavier Simpson Experience.

Vasav

January 30th, 2019 at 4:26 PM ^

Did Brian make a baseball reference? Does this mean between the end of the Spring Game and Fall Practice there may be just a bit of M baseball and softball coverage?

"...that's the difference between a no-hitter and a perfect game."

Ziff72

January 30th, 2019 at 4:31 PM ^

I'm surprised there has been no talk of the shoulder that knocked Simpson down under the basket . 

Not a huge deal but it was intentional and it is 2019.  Figured the outrage would be big.

ST3

January 30th, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^

The difference between Poole’s play and Flopsconsin is that Poole took the contact and fell backwards; Flopsconsin players take NO contact and hurl themselves backwards.

Bambi

January 30th, 2019 at 4:41 PM ^

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Providence.

They're 13-7 overall, 3-4 in conference. They lost to Wichita St. and UMass in the non con which isn't great, but have a neutral win vs South Carolina and wins @BC and @Texas.

In conference they've won 3 of their last 4. 2 of their 4 losses are to Nova and Marquette. They've been playing without one of their best players, freshman AJ Reeves, since the UMass game and he just came back in their last game.

Most importantly the Big East is thoroughly mediocre. Nova is 7-0 in conference, Marquette is 7-1, and all 8 other teams are 3-4 or 3-5. Providence is part of the 3-4 group and already played 2 of their 4 Nova/Marquette games. They can very reasonably be the 3rd or 4th best team in the Big East by seasons end, which is a bid worthy team.

TrueBlue2003

January 30th, 2019 at 5:59 PM ^

The magic number for them is to get into the top 50 in NET, right?  That would move that win to a Q1 win.  I don't really think it matters if they make it into the field.  So yeah, they're not be written off.  It's still a Q2 win and if they do finish the season strong, they could get to that top 50 threshold.

matty blue

January 30th, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^

cosign, cosign, cosign on the zero turnovers; that was my favorite part of the "derrick walton jr, destroyer of worlds" run - he seemed to have game after game of 8/2, 10/1, 5/0 assist/turnover ratios down that stretch.  when the ball was in his hands, we were going to get a shot off. 

we don't need zero turnovers from z, and we definitely don't need triple-doubles, but if we keep getting minimal turnovers and great defense?  man, nobody is going to want us.  nobody DOES want us.

except cassius winston, of course.  that guy is going to EAT.  Z's.  LUNCH.  (right, zavier?)

northernmich

January 30th, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^

If we win a natty, Iggy maybe leaves. No one else is close in my opinion. Our defense is so elite that we can win games having slightly above average offense and what the NBA wants is guys that can score the basket. If we have our starting 5 all average between 10-12 points a game and then the bench combine for 10-15 points a game, that’s more than enough offense to win a national championship with this group while still not having enough draft potential to come back next year. Iggy is your classic JB two year and done player and I’m okay with that. Our 6 man rotation is the best in the country. Not consistent shooters but we no longer live and die by the three. When we hit threes we blow teams out, when we don’t we usually are in a dog fight for 25 minutes then slowly pull away. If Teske makes his bunnies and Iggy is efficient on the offensive end, us and Duke are the 1a and 1b teams in the country.

ijohnb

January 31st, 2019 at 4:13 PM ^

Matthews is the only player on most draft boards right now.  Iggy needs to improve a lot of things right now.  Poole could breakout and become a first rounder but he has a little ways to go.  I don’t see much if any attrition from the core players except for Matthews.  We may not have enough ball next year, particularly if we don’t want to have any other unforeseen attrition from some of the younger guys.

Paps

January 30th, 2019 at 4:54 PM ^

I think an important distinction needs to be made, re flopping. 

There is a difference, I think, between "flopping" and "embellishment". I think it's part of the game to take contact the offensive player gives you and make the most of it - we see this in every sport, its part of "drawing the foul" - and is exactly what Poole did last night. 

Flopping is straight up acting like contact that was there wasn't. I think this is an important difference.

TrueBlue2003

January 30th, 2019 at 5:09 PM ^

I think the offensive foul rules are ok as is.

I don't think it would be desirable to actually call an offensive foul every time Jordan Murphy forcibly "backs" down a guy that is technically allowed defensive verticality, because it would result in too many fouls being called and/or too much reduction in offense.

But I don't mind defensive players being able to at least gamble on getting the call sometimes.  They're left with a decision to not go down and continue playing defense or to go down with the understanding that if they don't get the call, it's 5 on 4.  It feels like a worthwhile tradeoff to give the defense an ability to get the obvious/well-executed calls, with a downside risk great enough that you don't see guys going down much (outside of your garden-variety Wisconsin game).

It is frustrating when the refs don't make the correct call, but that probably evens out somewhat.  The flop by Davison that Dakich complained about being a no-call was probably a missed call, but at least two of the Trice flops were called and should not have been (the one on Livers and the one on Matthews).

It is something that refs should have a "scouting report" on when there are habitual offenders.  If you're looking for that Trice move where he just lunges his head and shoulders back, you should be less likely to call it when there is minimal contact.  Enforce the existing rules a little better and all is good.

remdog

January 30th, 2019 at 6:27 PM ^

I guess I'm insane because I never wrote off Simpson.  He always had elite quickness and ball handling.  And he had Beilein to improve his shooting.

As for Poole, he's in a minor slump as defenses focus on him.  No big deal.  It's just been a few games, a small sample, only a few shots some games.  Even the best like Steph Curry go through this all the time.  He still scored 15, had several steals and a fantastic block.

Double-D

January 31st, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^

I didn’t write him off but my money was on Jarron Simmons to lead the team last year.   It took several weeks into the season before Z emerged and then it was wow.  

I get the impression Beilein has these guys scrimmage hard against each other in practice and uses matchups like a puzzle to learn about and develop the players and the rotation. 

saveferris

January 31st, 2019 at 7:34 AM ^

RELATED. Presented without comment because I cannot think of anything to say that won't get me in trouble.

This thread describes, with surprising accuracy, my post game rituals. ‍♀️

If this comment is even remotely true, then Luke is a lucky, lucky man.

smwilliams

January 30th, 2019 at 6:36 PM ^

X (I refuse to call him Z) is one of my favorite Michigan players in a long time. He's an irrational number. A guard who can't shoot that is somehow thriving in the modern game.

The one negative is that Teske has a few plays every game where he goes up soft near the basket when he's surrounded and ends up missing a bunny or getting blocked. I'd like to see him power through contact and get a call or attempt a dunk.

Matthews doesn't get a lot of love, but watching him off-ball, it's clear how important he is to the team from a defensive scheme standpoint.

Also, I'm curious to see what description we apply to David DeJulius next year.

bronxblue

January 30th, 2019 at 6:52 PM ^

I take slight issue with the idea Simpson deviates so much from your average PG.  The game has evolved such that PGs are more scorers than facilitators, but he's a dogged defender who is a great passer, doesn't turn the ball over much, and in college has a bit of positional flexibility defensively because he can body up SGs.  Yes he can't shoot Michigan, but we don't bemoan a guy like Trae Young last year who was really good at shooting and pretty average to bad at genreating offense for others or defense.  It's been said elsewhere but Simpson plays like an older generation PG, but you can win with a guy like him in college pretty consistently if you have other pieces around him, a caveat that applies to all but the uber elite players.

dragonchild

January 31st, 2019 at 7:29 AM ^

He's not really a throwback PG either though because the convention was always to be a good shooter.  Logic went, the PG initiated the attack from the top of the key so he needed a good jumper, whereas quickness -- while always a plus -- wasn't required.  From my generation, Derek Harper, Mark Jackson, Tim Hardaway, Terry Porter, John Stockton, Gary Payton. . . they all had 3-ball range, even though not all of them were prolific scorers.  There isn't any era in which I've been alive when a PG wasn't expected to be good at shooting.  Z is all quickness, no jumper.  And, Z's hook shot -- nice that it's tougher to defend, but does it really make a difference when the release point is still in danger of being crushed by a dwarf?  How does he make it all work?

I really don't know what Zavier Simpson is.  He's such a weird player, yet he's a gorram wizard.  All hail the WeirdZard.

TrueBlue2003

January 30th, 2019 at 7:09 PM ^

I don't think we need to worry much about NCSOS, or any other metrics when it comes to getting a 1 seed.

I think it is quite simply that they need to win or tie for the regular season conference title to get a one seed.  That would put them ahead of MSU and then only one of Gonzaga or Tennessee or Duke or UVA would need to stumble slightly, which is highly, highly likely (I'm looking pretty squarely at Tennessee).

MH20

January 30th, 2019 at 7:31 PM ^

Yeah, I'm not seeing the consternation about NCSOS being a problem for Michigan in their pursuit of a #1 seed. If you look at past 1-seeds on KenPom over the past 10 years you'll see a decent amount of NCSOS figures in the 200s and upper reaches of the 100s.

If Michigan does what it needs to do to secure a 1-seed (i.e. win a shitload of games including either a regular season or conference tournament crown) their stinky NCSOS shouldn't hold them back.