I needed a new name for a regular hoops column because Brian and I had both been using "Basketbullets" (originally Brian's column, lest anyone think this is on him) for different purposes. Nobody vetoed "Around the Horns" so here we are.

Early Bracket Watching

Yes, we're still a couple months away from Selection Sunday, but it's time to at least glance sideways at the bracket projections. While there's going to be a ton of movement before they truly matter, they at least give a decent idea of how much wiggle room teams have to drop games. Going by the Bracket Matrix, here's how the Big Ten shakes out:

Michigan State: 3-seed
Maryland: 4-seed
Iowa: 5-seed
Ohio State: 6-seed
Michigan: 6-seed
Wisconsin: 7-seed
Rutgers: 7-seed
Penn State: 8-seed
Illinois: 9-seed
Indiana: 9-seed
Purdue: 11-seed
Minnesota: 11-seed (last four in)

Yes, that's 12 teams in the consensus projected field. This is the murderconference. The two teams behind MSU at the top of the Big Ten standings are Rutgers and Illinois at 5-2. Minnesota, the team closest to dropping out, has clawed out a solid 4-4 conference record. Michigan and Ohio State have the worst B1G records among the projected tourney teams and they both did heavy lifting in nonconference play.

Despite Michigan's recent slide, The Athletic's Eamonn Brennan doesn't seem concerned about their current standing in his signature Bubble Watch column:

Michigan (11-6, 2-4; NET: 29, SOS: 50): Like almost everyone else in the Big Ten, the Wolverines have yet to get much of note done on the road, which is to say they’ve lost all four of their road trips and are thus 2-4 in their first six league games. A homestand against Penn State and Illinois awaits this week, so it’ll be easier to reassess any extant concerns about the Wolverines this time next week. In the meantime, recall that this team beat Gonzaga on a neutral floor in November, which is to say it will take a lot more than a few road losses to good Big Ten teams to damage their chances.

That doesn't even note Isaiah Livers's injury, something the tournament committee will take into account when evaluating resumés. Unless Livers misses a good deal more time—which seems unlikely given he went through full warmups before the Iowa game—it's too early for concern until the Wolverines drop a home game or two.

[Hit THE JUMP for women's bracketology, a look at the upcoming schedule, and DDJ showing signs of taking another step forward.]

The Road Ahead

Brian mentioned in the Iowa game column that the schedule eases up a bit compared to the last couple weeks. That's very much the case, and given the above, this is going to be a critical stretch. Five of the next eight games are at home, another is the very silly should-be home game against Rutgers that Michigan decided to play at Madison Square Garden (more on that later), and the two road games are against the two worst teams in the conference. KenPom has the Wolverines favored in each of the eight games:

They almost certainly won't win all eight—there's about a 2% chance of that based on the above odds—but there's a very foreseeable path to 6-2 over this stretch, which would go a long way towards allaying bubble concerns.

Now, the Rutgers thing. We discussed on the podcast that, despite Michigan probably having a considerable advantage in fans attending the game, the idea of playing a conference "home" game in New York certainly wasn't taking the basketball team's needs into account first and foremost. Now a reader email has me wondering if Michigan will even have the considerable fan advantage:

Brian, Ace,

I am catching up on the Podcast and heard your brief discussion about the upcoming “home” game against Rutgers in two weeks.

I am an alum in NY and wanted to pass along some information about the game which may be useful and certainly infuriating.

I have been to past Michigan games at MSG and Barclays and there is always a big contingent of Michigan fans. The game this year is controlled by the Big Ten (obviously) and they control the tickets. As of today, the Big Ten is not selling any tickets in the 200 and 300 levels of MSG. Only tickets in the 100 (most expensive) section are available for sale. I have called the UMich ticket office and MSG who have both confirmed it is out of their hands.

The cheapest tickets available right now are $55 and behind the baskets. If you want to sit on the side of the court those run at least $100 and usually more. You can go on Ticketmaster and see for yourself.

So basically what appeared to be a Michigan home game at MSG when it was announced will likely be played in a half empty MSG with no atmosphere. Thanks, Delaney.

Anyway thought you would appreciate this in light of the discussion on the pod.

Go Blue,
Brad Hanan

Sure enough, the cheapest tickets being sold are still $55, and there are no seats being sold on the 200 or 300 levels. Warde Manuel should be answering questions about why he agreed to this arrangement, because it sucks.

Women On The Bubble

falling out of the projected bracket for now [JD Scott]

The women's team (12-6, 3-4 Big Ten) is in a very similar position to the men's team, only they don't have a victory on par with the men's Gonzaga win in nonconference to help prop up a tournament resumé. Michigan has lost three of their last four, with three of those four games on the road, and they get a chance to right the ship with three of their next four at home.

In other sentences that sound familiar, the Big Ten is the best conference in college basketball this year, featuring nine teams projected into the NCAA field on ESPN's bracketology, two more than any other conference. That doesn't include the Wolverines, one of the first four teams currently out of the field. Here's the Big Ten rundown:

Indiana (4-seed)
Iowa (4-seed)
Northwestern (5-seed)
Maryland (5-seed)
Rutgers (6-seed)
Nebraska (10-seed)
Ohio State (10-seed, last four in)
Purdue (11-seed, last four in)
Minnesota (11-seed, last four in)

This upcoming four-game stretch comes entirely against projected tourney teams: Rutgers, at Northwestern, Iowa, Purdue. It very well could make or break the season.

Busting Out: David DeJulius

useful shot [Campredon]

I wanted to highlight some excellent plays from David DeJulius over the last few games. I mentioned earlier this season that I thought he was seeing the floor well and making solid passes, but the assists weren't coming mostly due to bad luck. He was also having a tough time hitting the roll man. This came up as the number one area of improvement I wanted to see out of him for next year:

David DeJulius: pick-and-roll passing. While DDJ has improved of late in this area, there's plenty of ground to cover as a passer in the screen game. DDJ ranks in the 90th percentile as a pick-and-roll ballhandler when he shoots; when he passes, he ranks in the 43rd percentile. He's had particular trouble putting the roll man in position to score. That should improve as he gets more used to running the P&R and also gets more offseason work with the big men once Zavier Simpson isn't dominating the ball.

He's ahead of schedule. Even including a quiet performance against Minnesota, that's really turned around over the last three games, in which DDJ has ten assists against only one turnover with a couple double-digit scoring efforts.

You can see the game slowing down for DDJ even though he often plays at top speed. There's a patience that wasn't present before. Here he takes a screen from Austin Davis, sees that nothing is available, and circles out—but never takes his eye off the defense, which allows him to catch Purdue off-guard with a quick lob pass that Davis converts:

Juwan Howard is rewarding DDJ by running more plays for him. Here DDJ runs the double drag screen, makes the correct read, and throws a tough pass over the top to Jon Teske for an and-one finish:

DDJ helped put the final nail in Purdue's coffin by recognizing the extra help they were sending Teske's way and making a sharp reverse pass that put the ball right in Zavier Simpson's shooting pocket, allowing him to get a clean look before the defense can close out:

This next one may be my favorite play of all. DDJ gets a defensive rebound with under a minute left and initially pushes the tempo. I'd bet whatever's in my wallet that an earlier version of DDJ tries to take this play all the way to the rim, but this version recognizes that Iowa got back in transition(!), so he pulls up, takes a quick screen from Teske, and flips a quick pass over his shoulder when the big man pops out for a three against a defense that isn't ready for it:

DDJ also treated us to some impressive finishes lately: a late-clock floater against the grain, a full speed halfcourt layup to attack a closeout, a baseline floater, and a hesitation reverse while out early on the break, to name a few. He's putting it together fast. Eli Brooks is going to need more performances like the Iowa game to keep DDJ from eating into his minutes.