All Right, Fine, Let's Talk About That
[Patrick Barron]
You said this would be a good basketball team.
What are YOU doing here, bolded alter-ego?
I'm bothering you. You said this would, and I fake quote, "not be a festering trash-heap."
I didn't say that but I did imply it. This was not correct, in a general sense. I mean, they did beat Texas and NC State. We may be overreacting here. But a top 25 team this ain't.
My feelings are bad now because you. Hate you.
Okay. Do you still want to talk about this, or was that sufficient for your purposes?
We can talk about it. What is going on, man?
Well…
Center is killing Michigan on offense, too
We are taking it as read that the center position is a disaster on defense. Any large, slightly peevish man is spend games against Michigan flexing so much he looks like he's in a bodybuilding competition.
But wait, there's more: Michigan absolutely does not trust their centers to run the pick and roll and it's killing their offense. Michigan got one roll dunk from Ricky Doyle after a second-half timeout, and other than that bupkis. Moritz Wagner got a layup blocked when he could have dunked the ball early and then Michigan didn't try it again until Beilein probably yelled at them about it.
When the pick and roll isn't working Michigan gets stuck on the outside all day because they don't have dribble penetrators, and the ensuing barrage of bad threes in the first half is the result.
This is a big disappointment since Ricky Doyle was very promising as a pick and roll finisher last year, when he hit 77% at the rim. This year he's down to 65% and, more importantly, he's got an astronomical 32 TO rate—a third of the time he uses an offensive possession it's to thunk the ball to the other team. Last year he was at 12. Maybe he got sweatier?
Wagner's shown some promise here—he used that super-quick layup to get buckets against NC State's enormous shot-blockers. But after that initial failure Michigan didn't go back to him.
Perimeter defense is abominable
I kind of expect it from Duncan Robinson. Ace made a good point on twitter: he is better as a bench player because his minutes generally come when the opponent has substituted as well, which helps Michigan hide him on D. Also, Robinson is shooting 60% from 3 on a burgeoning significant 50 attempts.
But that's a problem and then Dawkins is barely better against the starters. LeVert is better this year but still gambles a lot, and it's not paying off much. Once that happens and rotation starts bad things result.
[Barron]
Possible solutions on the perimeter can't shoot
Michigan needs four guys who are reasonable shooters from three on the court to run this offense. Kam Chatman, who did a nice job on D against NC State, is 0/8. MAAR is 2/11. That contributes to the offense bogging down.
This goes double when neither guy really facilitates anyone else's offense. MAAR has an early-Irvin-esque assist rate, which is frustrating because he's able to get to the basket better than anyone else on the team. He shoots decently inside the arc; Michigan needs him to set some other guys up to facilitate the offense.
Zak Irvin is broken
Shooting 20% from three, getting killed on the boards, bleah. He has seemingly not recovered to get in the flow of the game from his back injury, and that's a major downer. Hopefully these upcoming games give him an opportunity to shoot himself hot.
LeVert is not quite an alpha dog
Caris LeVert is very good at basketball, and statistically he's one of the best players in the country. I just think that sometimes, in the wrong matchup, you can shut him down. His ability to get into the lane is so-so, so the right defender can fend him off and then he has a game like he did against SMU. That did not happen to Trey Burke or Nik Stauskas. Maybe this is a one-off bad game—hopefully nothing is quite as bad as that. I think Caris is a very very good basketball player who might be better as a second banana.
Well…
I think our goals have reset to "make the tournament," which kind of sucks, but Michigan should be able to do that. A weak Big Ten gives you some pause but there's going to be a game or three against a tough opponent in which Duncan Robinson goes 11/10 from three, and that should be enough.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:40 PM ^
I agree about the Alpha Dog thing. Caris a great player... but he's not playing with enough ONIONS ((C) Bill Raftery) at the moment. Last year it took Michigan a long time to figure out how to play together with the injuries as Freshmen grew into a new role. This year it almost looks awkward - how do you incorporate Caris? Etc. I think there's a decent (Maybe top 25?) basketball team in here, the question is how close they get to that ceiling.
I think the team's true leader is Walton, and missing him was a big part of this game.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^
I mean, what is Caris supposed to do? He doesn't have nearly as much help as Burke and Stauskas did. It was expected that Walton and Irvin would help form a nice trio, but none of those guys have taken that leap that we all expected. Caris should be effective running the pick and roll, but we don't have any big men capable of running it. At this point, the team is Caris and then Robinson shooting 3's, nothing else.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
I don't disagree. Caris isn't getting help. But lots of the guys who aren't helping looked OK-to-Good last year. Brian put it in his post, what happened to Doyle? Dawkins was going to be awesome! Etc!
I don't mean to be blaming Caris, I think the team misses Walton, and a healthy Walton will do more than Caris can to right the ship.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:40 PM ^
with the Walton thing is that we didn't look any better against Xavier and Uconn - the games he played against good teams.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^
December 9th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^
I think you're mostly right. While I have always been down on Levert as the top option, he can still be that on a good team. He just needs it to be a good team. Right now there are too many other problems. Levert isn't good enough as a top option to cover up for those problems. It's also probably why Brian listed Levert not quite being an alpha dog last in the list of problems.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:07 PM ^
Well, I mean he's not Lebron James, but he's probably the 3rd best player in the Big Ten (behind 2 serious NPOY contenders). I'm not sure how much of an alpha dog Stauskas would be on this team.
December 9th, 2015 at 6:26 PM ^
The "best player" isn't always well suited for being an alpha dog. That's always how I have viewed Levert. He brings some great skills and puts them together in a great package, I just think the package is better served whe he's not the focus of the offense. He can be that focus on a good team and the team can still succeed, I'm just not sure he can make a team succeed by being the focus. I don't know if this is the best example, but Scottie Pippen is one of the greatest players of all time. But he was better suited to play along side MJ than he was for the role of alpha dog during MJ's first retirement.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^
I think a lot of the reactions here were over the top as far as getting rid of Beilein, but I do think a hard look will need to be taken at changing asst. coaches in the offseason. Perhaps "encouraging" one of them to take a lower tier HC position. Of course it's also possible that they make me look as silly as I did when I posted that I didn't think the 2013-2014 team would end up being good after we lost to Arizona by 1.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:51 PM ^
December 10th, 2015 at 9:12 AM ^
To me the #1 sign of a good coach is that they adjust their system to the players they have not make the players adjust to the system. That's my problem with Beilein. People say that Chatman, Donnal, and Wilson are busts but its not their fault that Beilein plays them out of position. That being said my starting five right now because of injuries would be:
PG: Lavert
SG: Robinson
SF: Dawkins
PF: Wilson
C: Wagner
December 10th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
So what are Chatman and Donnal's natural positions?
December 10th, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^
Their body of work has shown they don't have the ability to contribute at the D1-A level. Nothing wrong with knowing your limitations.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:47 PM ^
You may be right about them not being D1 talent but we really don't know because they are being played out of position.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:46 PM ^
Donnal is a stretch 4 and should be playing D against PF's and not center. From what I've read Chatman played some PG in high school so to think he can D up against PF's in college is just silly. He should play D against SF's and slow SG's. I beleive its a coaches job to put their players is positions to succeed and I don't think Beilien always does that.
December 10th, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^
I don't think Donnal has shown anywhere near the kind of perimeter skills to justify playing him at the four. And defensively, he'd mostly be guarding guys shorter than him - not many teams play two big men at a time anymore. I can't see that working out.
For Chatman I don't think the problem is really defense - again, he's mostly going to defend guys his size - but he just doesn't have great perimeter skills offensively. He simply looks like a tweener - not skilled enough to play on the perimeter, not big enough to play down low.
December 10th, 2015 at 4:27 PM ^
Like a guy who should have red-shirted. Potential/skillset is there but hes raaaaaaaaaaaw.
December 10th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
If you don't mind giving up over 1.2 ppp every game, exhausting your best player, and making it easy for teams to defend the one ball-handler you have on the floor.
December 10th, 2015 at 1:55 PM ^
I believe Robinson and Dawkins are plenty capable of handling the ball plus along with Levert they are your three best 3 point shooters. And as far as exhausting the best player surely the coach can sub some players in every once and while.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^
Seeing this team play. A lot of the problems we have are the same problems we've always had under Beilein, but we were so good at other things they got covered up. Now we aren't good at the things we were good at and we're being badly exposed. It's just unbelievable that two years ago we were one of the best teams in the country and now we are staring at the possibility of not making the postseason twice in a row(You can't tell me we even look like an NIT team right now). Guess that's the world of college basketball now a days.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^
Truth is, recruiting matters. Our 2014 class is looking like an absolute bust right now. Chatman is looking like a bust. Wilson hasn't done anything. Doyle and Dawkins showed some promise last year but have regressed. MAAR is what he is, a decent depth player but not a starter on a tournament team. That's 5 misses in one class. Can't have that and expect to continue to have success, especially when you have to deal with early departures.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:51 PM ^
December 9th, 2015 at 4:55 PM ^
Dawkins has shown nothing but an ability to hit 3's and perform cool dunks, and he hasn't been hitting the 3's or dunking the ball nearly as much this year. Doyle just seems too uncoordinated and unathletic to be a starting big man on a tournament hopeful. And sure, I guess MAAR isn't a miss because he's actually been what we expected. You're still looking at a huge bust of a class overall, with 0 impact players in what was an extremely pivotal recruiting class.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:30 PM ^
December 9th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^
Have spit nothing but truth over the last 20 hours or so.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:03 PM ^
December 9th, 2015 at 5:31 PM ^
Exactly. All those guys have been here 1 1/3 years. Beacuse we lost 5 guys to the NBA early, the 2014 class had to be great right away to hide our problems, and they're not great. I wouldn't yet call them a bust though. Very, very few teams can keep humming when suffering attrition like we have.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:43 PM ^
When are we going to stop using the attrition excuse? 90% of the players on this team have gotten signficant experience and have been in this system for over a year. How much more time has to pass before the "we lost players to the NBA early" reasoning rings hollow?
December 9th, 2015 at 5:09 PM ^
has turned into a complete mess. Instead of capitalizing on the NC run, recruting got worse and we lost out on every single one of our top targets for three recruing classes in a row. That could make things really rough for the next year or two.
December 9th, 2015 at 6:42 PM ^
I think Dawkins and MAAR have a lot of potential and can definitely turn into good players given more time. Chatman is on the bubble right now and needs to start showing something soon - then I'll go along with "bust". Doyle and Wilson I'd agree are looking like misses. Add to that Donnal from the previous class (who is a clear bust) and the frontline problems are not a surprise.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^
With recruiting being what it is this year, and if what we saw last night is the new normal against good competition for the next few years, where do we go from here? More and more it seems that the success we had a couple of years ago came from the good fortune of getting players that turned out to be much better than anticipated.
There are some very good teams in the B1G.
I guess what I'm wondering is where do we go from here?
December 9th, 2015 at 4:51 PM ^
The only real hope for this year or next year is that JB pulls something crazy out of his ass like he has done before but this team simply doesn't have the talent that previous teams did. And it's so obvious. That's why I don't get why I get annihilated for saying I thought Beilein was done here. I wasn't saying he is the antichrist and should be fired immediately because he's terrible, I'm saying he's 62 years old and in all likelihood, this years team and next years team are going to be pretty bad. I want to see him excel further here but I just don't see it happening considering his age and the current shape of our team.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
Scary thought - MSU might be better next year, after losing Valenine, then they are this year. Miles Bridges, Cassius Winston, Nick Ward, and Josh Langford is a filthy good class. And they may still add Josh Jackson. I hate MSU with every fiber of my being, but those five would probably beat this Michigan team if they played them today.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^
Yeah, those 5 would absolutely destroy this Michigan team if they played today.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:09 PM ^
I dont think its might, it will.
Denzel is playing out of his mind but they can play 10 deep this year. Maybe 11 as Clark is just getting back in tune after injury. So lose Costello, Forbes, and Denzel, bring back 8 of top 11 - add those 4 HS guys, of which Miles Bridges looks 1 and done and like a typical high end Kentucky guy. If only 3 frosh contribute you are 11 deep with a guy like Davis making the "talented big man" fr to so jump.
And that assumes they are not getting Josh Jackson who rigth now they seem to be 50/50 at. MSU is going to be in beast mode the next 3 years at least.
Thankfully we only play once this year so I am hoping its not one of those 114-63 outcomes. Ugh.
Meanwhile back at the ranch we lose Caris in a year and our 2014 class is full of busts and we are adding MOAr project non bouncy big men.
I am not as sanguine as Brian. UM 2015 looks like a mid major team + Caris Levert. A bunch of unathhletic guys who would get run over in a Big conference but would do well in a mid major and you dont want to face in the round of 64 because that might be the 1 game their 3 point shooters go off at a 47% clip. But otherwise very manageable.
I am just shocked at the athleticism issues at the 3 and 4 - forget the big men. Dawkins regression is also shocking - I thought he was playing at a 3rd team All Big 10 level for last 3-4 weeks of last year. I am seeing a team that is going to go 7-11 or 8-10 at best in conf. Teams like Xavier and SMU play 3 guard lineups. Its going to be carnage the games we play with multiple real big men out there - frontline of Maryland Purdue, etc.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:42 PM ^
they went 8-10 last year in the BIG. do you really think this team is worse? even while basically adding levert, walton, robinson and wagner? plus, the BIG is worse.
this team is definitely flat right now but there is plenty of time to get improvement out of this bunch.
i don't think this team contends for the BIG, i never really did, but i will be shocked if they are not at least 9-9.
December 9th, 2015 at 6:22 PM ^
Yes...worse. Where is the improvement going to come from?! 1/3 or the way throug the season now, not 3 or 4 games. The losses are all similar and will continue to be brutal to watch. Let's say we do get better. Well, so will the other teams ahead of us who are already looking really good. Can you really say we can hang with Sparty, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana?! Edit: God I keep forgetting about Maryland.
December 9th, 2015 at 6:29 PM ^
December 9th, 2015 at 6:43 PM ^
We will drop 1 against the "bad teams" ala PSU, Rutgers, NW, Neb (down this year) - because that's basketball and we will have an off shooting night one of those games. We play 5 of those games; most are at home and we have a neutral in NYC so I have us going 4-1 in those games.
That leaves 13 games.
I don't see this team competing well vs MSU, Maryland, Purdue. Thankfully we play Indiana at Crisler because we win in Bloomington as often as the Lions do in Green Bay. So maybe 1-5 in that group.
So I've got 5 wins there.
That leaves 7 games vs teams we are similar to ala Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, OSU, Wisconsin. I see us 3-4ish vs that crew, maybe 4-3 so.... 8-10, 9-9 I guess. I might be underselling Iowa which looks like a matchup problem for us. Uthoff is 6-9, ave 18 ppg and 6 rpg - will probably go for 25 and 10 vs us. Woodburry is 7-1, 245 lbs - ave 9 ppg and 7 rbs. We are going to do what against him again? Send Doyle and Donnal at him? Jok is one of those athletic 6'6 guys who will dribble penetrate all night. Etc.
| Wed., Dec. 30 |
at Illinois *  |
Champaign, Ill. | 2:00 p.m. CT |
| Sat., Jan. 2 |
vs. Penn State * |
Crisler Center | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| Thu., Jan. 7 |
at Purdue * |
West Lafayette, Ind. | 7 or 9 p.m. ET |
| Tue., Jan. 12 |
vs. Maryland * |
Crisler Center | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| Sun., Jan. 17 |
at Iowa * |
Iowa City, Iowa | 1 of 3:30 p.m. CT |
| Wed., Jan. 20 |
vs. Minnesota * |
Crisler Center | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Jan. 23 |
at Nebraska * |
Lincoln, Neb. | 1:00 p.m. CT |
| Wed., Jan. 27 |
vs. Rutgers * |
Crisler Center | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Jan. 30 |
vs. Penn State * |
New York, N.Y. | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| Tue., Feb. 2 |
vs. Indiana * |
Crisler Center | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Feb. 6 |
vs. Michigan State * |
Crisler Center | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| Wed., Feb. 10 |
at Minnesota * |
Minneapolis, Minn. | 8:00 p.m. CT |
| Sat., Feb. 13 |
vs. Purdue * |
Crisler Center | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| Tue., Feb. 16 |
at Ohio State * |
Columbus, Ohio | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| Sun., Feb. 21 |
at Maryland * |
College Park, Md. | 1 or 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Wed., Feb. 24 |
vs. Northwestern * |
Crisler Center | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| Sun., Feb. 28 |
at Wisconsin * |
Madison, Wis. | 3 or 5 p.m. CT |
| Sat., Mar. 5 |
vs. Iowa * |
Crisler Center | 8:00 p.m. ET |
December 9th, 2015 at 7:18 PM ^
December 9th, 2015 at 11:23 PM ^
Slight dogs to Sparty, Purdue, Iowa, Maryland!!! Regardless of where those games are played, those teams are going to feast on us! We sure as hell aren't going to get juciy homecourt-cookin' as we never do and it still wouldn't be enough. NW is on their way to becoming a pretty good team too with Collins at the helm.
December 10th, 2015 at 9:11 AM ^
in those games. Most are at home, and conservatively they probably only need to win 1.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^
Based on the title, I thought this was going to be about DC options.
December 9th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^
I try not to talk about coaching shake ups, because it's an icky thing to do, but Beilein really needs to take a good look at what Bacari has brought to the table. A few shake-ups a la five years ago may be necessary. Our centers are bad this year and have been bad most years save for (a) 5* McGary who came in very skilled and (b) the Old Man version of Jordan Morgan. I'm not sure a coach can really take credit for either of those. Jeff Meyer has also been the lead on most major recruiting coups. I'm not sure that Bacari has been the lead on any.
I just don't see any progress at this position, in play or recruiting. That's a problem.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:05 PM ^
December 9th, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^
I don't know if you're being sarcastic, but LaVall is a fantastic coach. Our guard play over the past 5-7 years has been extraordinary, with very obvious player development occurring. Our big men have been the polar opposite of that.
Even with the current struggles, I'd be more than happy to still keep LaVall on deck as the head coach in waiting. However, it might be better for everyone in the long run (LaVall and UM), if LaVall took a head coaching gig at a mid-major to prove himself as a head man.
December 9th, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^
Jordan has done good work over time. I don't see why you get rid of him.
I've seen very little out of Bacari other than "cool hype speeches". Not a new development - been an issue most of his time here. Maybe he hasnt had the talent but even a Jordan Morgan a lot of people are revising history. Morgan sat on his a$$ much of his rs jr year - he was marginalized and then lost almost all playing time in the NCAA tournament as McGary emerged. But even at taht point Horford was getting more time. Not until his 2nd half of rs sr year did Morgan really come to fruition. So it took Bacari 4 years to get him going? (Morgan actually had a good rs fr year than regressed for a few yrs - why?) And aside from that what has he done with a non top 20 player? Not much.
December 9th, 2015 at 6:34 PM ^
December 9th, 2015 at 6:51 PM ^
If Michigan is going to keep playing the 4 out, 1 in system (which I'm fine with) they need to find a scrapper / JYD type to play the 5. No need to shoot well, they need to be a physical presence setting screens and defending the rim.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 9th, 2015 at 6:51 PM ^
McGary blows your theory out of the water. They ran plays for him, they fed him in the post some, and they worked him at the high post as a passer. Likewise, Wagner has miles to go but look at what they immediately did with him as soon as it was obvious he had good hands and could pass.
I'll agree that the next Shaq isn't going to be in love with Beilein's offense initially, but the game of basketball is changing. Hell, look at the guy who torched us last night on SMU. Did they run one post play for him? Did he shoot one jump shot? No - he dominated us in the pick-and-roll the way Beilein would draw it up on the white board. He just happens to be far more athletic and their guards ran the plays very well (combined with our horrible D).
To me the sales pitch is really simple and I hope that's what the coaches use. "Hey - how would you like to get a bunch of dunks on ball screen passes from our guards and a bunch of assists passing to our corner shooters? You can also anchor our defense in the middle."
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