Aaaaaarrrrrgggghhhh

we hardly knew ye.

Hate to sound alarmist, but the rationalization that its only 6 games is fool's gold.

We play twelve non-conference games. Our two hardest non-conference games, Kansas and Connecticut, are yet to come. Utah is rebuilding, but that game is next week, and considering the product we've seen so far, that is at best a 50/50 game.

Let's assume Michigan splits the Uconn/Utah games. They would be 7-5 in the non-conference portion of their schedule.

They would need at least 11 Big 10 wins to have a solid chance at the tournament, and even that may not assure a bid. 11-7 would make us 18-12 overall, and probably put our RPI in the high 40s/low 50s.

We've done a lot of irreparable damage to our NCAA tournament hopes. If UM somehow makes a dramatic turnaround and finishes 12-6 or 13-5 in the Big 10, we've hurt our NCAA seed.

A solid non-conference performance of 9-3 or 10-2 would have resulted in a #5 type seed. Now? 12-6 or 13-5 probably puts us in the 7-8-9 seed range.

This isn't the NBA. After Saturday we'll have played more than 20% of our games. We basically cannot afford another cold spell the rest of the season.

The kitten towers over the mouse cursor.

I know it's way early in the season, but after spending the last couple months thinking the football team would get better, I was hoping for a little relief from the basketball team. Last night, when they got down by 10 so quick, and couldn't guard anyone or hit anything, I got that feeling of "here we go again." That sucks.

But it *is* early and I completely believe they'll get their act together and get a spot in The Dance. Just do it sooner rather than later, please?

Again, we are six games in the season. I can't stress that enough.

Re: Flashes of Amaker

I love Beilein as much as the next guy. But I have seen flashbacks to the Amaker era at times throughout his tenure. Not so much of the headless-chickening, but in terms of passes that are made for the sake of fulfilling a quota instead of being made to free up a lane to the hoop or get a man open on the perimeter. You can almost see the players counting those passes in their heads. "1-2-3-4. Ok, we got as many touches as Coach asked for. Now we can shoot."

Re: Sims

Somebody get that boy some Adderall. Stat.

Re: Gritty Grit Gritsteins

Steve Lavin (i believe) made an interesting point during the Perdue game regarding the importance of having a fast, small, relentless on-the-ball defender come tournament time, citing the impact of players like Tyus Edney and Ty Lawson. It made me think of the spark that Lindsey Hunter gave the Pistons during their title run. When you can create turnovers-- or at least hurried panic-- at the point, mistakes will follow. Last year, we had a combo of that player in Merritt/Grady/Lee. This year we don't have one. I expect to begin seeing some more full court presses and/or half court traps run in order to make up for our lack of a hardcore on-the-ball defender, which is crucial for success in a half-court defense. Morris' length would be a strong asset in a press. But his quickness is a liability at the top of a 1-3-1.

So how is the baseball team looking this year?

This team lives and dies by the outside shot. It did last year, and most of JB's teams have thrived by hitting from 3 at a decent clip and then attacking a loosened defense. Sometimes the three are falling and UM will kill teams by 30; other times they will be ice-cold (like the past few games) and get beaten by teams in a demoralizing fashion. In a lot of ways, teams under Beilein look like mid-majors, and these ups-and-downs are kind of what everyone signed up for with JB. As he gets better players into the system, my guess is that the pits and valleys will even out a bit more, but there will still be days where the team shoots 10-of-40 or something and fails to get to the rim.

The bigger issue is that guys like Sims and Harris are not playing like the top players they are supposed to be. Harris has never been a particularly good 3-point shooter, but the shot looks easy and it sure beats going to the rim and getting squashed by 6-10 man-mountains. Sims needs to stay down low and use his post skills, but instead he roams around a bit and is out of position for the putbacks that can really help this team.

I agree that the doom-and-gloom is a little premature. For as bad as UM looked, they have only lost to one team by more than 6 points, and even that game was closer than the final score. I thought the top-15 ranking was crazy when it assigned to this team, but I do think UM is a tourney team. There is still quite a bit of basketball to play, and I wouldn't be surprised to see UM take a scalp from UConn or Kansas, two teams that certainly look beatable.

Yes, we look horrifyingly out of sync at times. Yes, we look lackadaisical at times. Yes, we are shooting a horrible percentage from everywhere.

Is it Dec. 3rd and the season is about 1/5th of the way through? Yes. Are most of the problems correctable (ie coaching and effort rather than a lack of talent)? Yes. Is this team starting a freshman and two sophomores? Yes. Were preseason expectations inflated due to a strong finish last season? Yes.

This isn't a plea that the team is good, but rather that we withhold statements about making or missing the NCAA tournament until we get to the meat of the college basketball season. The basketball season is more forgiving than football. A horrible team at the beginning of the year that finishes strong is given way more cred in the eyes of the NCAA selection committee - it seems that it is almost looked at as a plus that they sucked in the beginning. Anyone who argues that this team can't improve has totally forgotten how bad we were in January 2009.

Even the kitten looks surprised.

Sorry to say, but right now we're looking at starting the Big 10 season at 6-5, which means even going 10-8 in conference leaves the Wolves at 16-14 (assuming a loss to UConn as well). Hello NIT. When is the spring football game?

This guy needs to start. He looks funny and he puts on a grumpy baby face when he's called for a foul, but the guy actually makes shots, tries hard on defense, and can block out and rebound if for no other reason than that he's 6'10" and 220 lbs.

Our lack of size in the front court doesn't look so bad if we can play gibson and sims at 4 and 5.

I also disagree strongly about morris v. douglass. Stu is a liability handling the ball and he has not shot well. I would much rather see morris and vogrich (a guy who can make shots) getting minutes, with llp and stu giving them rest.

rotate novak in for manny/sims for a breather and the big fella cronin in for gibson. our avante garde 4 midget set is not working.

The senior needs to lead his team.
2-7 or 3-10 are not going to cut it.
The man had 15 pts per game average last season!
8pts vs Marquette and 4pts last game are no-shows.

You mean to tell me the volleyball ladies have a bet going with the softballers on who can disappoint us the most!?!?!?!

Fer Fawk's Sake, people, say it aint so!!!

Come on, my friend. I think you're being a bit rash.

Everyone out there going "aargh" or whatever, please calm down...please. It's early December. Will there be this much panic next September if we beat UConn and then lose a squeaker to ND on the road? Based on some posts here, I guess so, but I really hope we can mature as a mgocommunity (wishful thinking, perhaps).

Ladies and gentlemen, I love Michigan as much as the rest of you, but remember that sports are supposed to be a source of enjoyment. It should be this way regardless of outcome. If we win, celebrate. If we lose, accept it or turn your attention to something else if you are down emotionally. It's just sports, people.

Apparently, it is the leadership factor. Lee and Merritt were apparently a lot more valuable than their stats would indicate. Also, Manny's hammy is probably more of an issue than anyone is letting on.

Anyway, it's early yet. The team has a month to gel. I think they will ultimately be up to the task.

with a true freshman point guard and a sophmore (Douglass) getting significant minutes for the first time.* I think it's a little early to decide that Michigan's tournament hopes turn on winning two of the three games against Kansas, Utah, and UConn. This team is going to get better. How much better, I don't know. But it has the pieces and the coaching to be very good. Six games is not a sufficient basis to conclude that it won't be at 20-win team.

Yes, the defense is problematic, especially in giving up dribble penetration and in failing to defend the weak side very effectively. This is largely a problem of defenders not knowing when and where to rotate when the zone traps the ball or, in man-to-man, when one weakside defender goes to help after someone is beaten off the dribble. It's not surprising that this problem should arise with the addition of new and newish players to the lineup. It can be cured with practice, film study, and more game experience, as long as the no0bs have some basketball IQ and are willing to make the effort. I don't see any reason to doubt that the team will find a way to cure the problem, although there's certainly a chance that it won't.

I disagree that the problem with the defense is significantly attributable to a failure of the 1-3-1 zone, as a scheme generally, or as a scheme that works for this particular collection of players. I'm getting a little frustrated in hearing an equation between Michigan's general defensive problems and problems with the 1-3-1. For one thing, Michigan does not run the 1-3-1 all the time, and maybe not a majority of the time. I have only seen the 1-3-1 or the 2-3 used after a made basket or a dead ball. When Michigan misses a shot or turns the ball over, they play man, not zone. Given how badly the offense is playing, they're playing man a lot more than they're playing zone. Second, even when Michigan does zone, they frequently use a 2-3, in which one of the defenders on top engages the ball right after it crosses half court. Sometimes, another defender will come to trap the ball high, which makes this version of the 2-3 look (from the top side) a little like a 1-3-1. I would love to see a statistic on the number of possessions that Michigan has used the 1-3-1 this year. I'd bet it's about 30%, tops.

I also agree about the offensive problems, but I'm not drawing season-long conclusions from them either. Beilein's motion offense can break down when players stop making the right cuts and setting and using screens the right way. When players aren't comfortable in it, there are a lot of bad shots because player and ball movement stop abruptly. For example, last year, Merritt and Lee took away Grady's playing time because Grady did not seem to understand what to do in the motion offense. He would often just stop when he was on the weak side, and then everyone else would soon stop moving too. When even one player does not know where he's supposed to go, this offense is awkward. From what I've seen, Morris is still feeling his way. If he catches on to the concept, the offense is also going to improve, better shots will result, and everyone will stop talking about a lid on the basket.

*I don't recall Douglass playing big minutes last year. And he was rarely on the floor in crucial situations. But I haven't studied the statistics so I'm prepared to be corrected on this point.

I don't think this as anything to do with coaching, and everything to do with effort. Now, you can say that's Beilein's job, and it is to a point, but he did get em going in the second half. It's also true that self motivation is a big part of the game. The way I see it, Manny and Peedie seem to think that by just showing up that's enough to win, and this is trickling down to the rest of the team. Manny has showed up on the offensive side of the ball but still gets lost or lets a missed shot effect his defensive game. I'd also consider benching Sims and starting Gibson to see if it'd help get Sims going, he's not playing the best defense in the world either. Hope is not lost though, if they play defense for a whole game like they did in the second half I think they can still get into the tournament.

1. There are eleventy billion opportunities to dog it during a football play, so I can't really support your premise on that one.

2. It seems to me that JB's whole offense is predicated on making outside jumpers FIRST. Then everything flows from there. If guys aren't draining their open 3's then M is effed. Personally, I don't like that type of offense. That is an offense for schools that never get the Chris Webbers and Juwan Howards of the world. Michigan should be able to land players like that. And then what? You're going to put those studs into a pop-gun offense designed to work at a place like Siena?
Blech. And JFC.

I've written this numerous times, but CJ Lee was not just a "Gitty McGritterson" gritty Ecksteinian player. He was also our single best perimeter defender. Now, suddenly, nobody can guard on the perimeter. The main recipient of his minutes (Douglass) is maybe 1/5th as good a defender, Perry lacks enough quickness and generally just backs up in order stay in front of a driving player, because he can't stay in front, and asking Novak to guard on the wing in the 1-3-1 is asking for every wing player in NCAA basketball to go through him like a turnstile.

Don't forget about baseball! They followed up back2back BigTen championships with an under-500 season. As football goes, so does Michigan.

What the hell was he doing defending Raji at any point in time? I mean... that is a match-up that spells "DISASTER" if I've ever seen one

"The conclusion, horrifyingly, is that maybe people who like Colin Cowherd aren't always wrong about everything forever."

Wonderfully, Tragically True. Nice Line. Pos-bang.

I hope this is just a symptom of 4 games in a short period of time with very little time to practice. I coach high school girls' lacrosse and we've had stretches of 4 games in a row without practices, and sometimes the same mistakes keep happening until there are a few solid practices to correct them.

As for grit, I think Novak and Gibson need to play more. Dave Merritt is now on the radio broadcasts w/ Matt Shepherd, and he sounded like he really wanted to get on the court and kick some asses. (Shep, meanwhile, sounded like he wanted to rip his hair out after witnessing the last 4 games from courtside).

I agree about the bet between the 3 teams though! Maybe Bill Martin's retirement announcement caused some sort of atmospheric disturbance?

anybody comparing our offense to the days of amaker is completely off. we're running plays and getting ball movement...it's as simple as just hitting a freakin shot. we'd be 5-1 right now if kids weren't clanking free throws, bricking layups and sucking at threes. i agree our defense is a completely different problem. we're getting owned on the backside of our 1-3-1 and something needs to change. the lack of intensity (as brian notes) is inexcusable and we're giving up far to many uncontested looks. do our chances at the tourney look good right now? no. fwiw, i thought we were completely overrated to begin the season and should have started somewhere in the late twenties. take a step back and realize that we drastically overachieved last year. we had two walkons and two freshmen that were basically unranked recruits in our starting lineup! the team has four upperclassmen on a roster of 16 players. the future is still bright. there are going to be growing pains. if we can get a W against utah and uconn and put together a 10 win campaign during conference play we still have a shot at the tourney. please though, start making some freaking shots!!!

for the hockey team, at least. They won both their games last weekend, and looked pretty good doing so. Granted, Minnesota showed nothing (while still managing to beat State the next night, mind you!), but Wisconsin played pretty well. Sure, we need to get some conference wins, but they'll come, trust me.

y'all need to relax. sometimes the ball just won't go in. sometimes your stars take stupid shots no matter how badly you try to coach it out of them. sometimes your guards won't feed your bigs the ball no matter how much you try to coach it into them. this post by brian (bringing out the kittens?!) is supremely pre-mature. this isn't football where early losses completely knock you out from post-season play. take a deep breath and relax

I still can't believe Stu didn't take those open 3s. Stu never needed an invitation to chuck up a 25 footer last year, and the whole student section seemed like it was yelling SHOOT! at him as he then passed the ball to Manny who dribbled around for 10 seconds and then got stuffed on a drive since they knew no one else was going to shoot and they put 3 guys on him.

I am hopeful that we can turn this boat around but will it be soon enough? It could be one long wait until football next year.

Totally agree, by the way, with the references to Amaker-era UM. There's this tragically familiar zombie look on all of their faces, even though you know (assume?) they are trying as hard as they can.

I was the first in line to crack on Bobby Hurley and Steve Wojochzozaowekskibinowitz when they would do that stupid Sumo squat floor slap thingy, but by God they seemed to give a shit about playing solid defense.

The Sky is falling the sky is falling ahhhhh!!!!

Get it together people! sheesh. We can beat anyone in the country if we get more intesity on D and four people playing well offensively on a given night and will be competitive with anyone if we get three. We won the second half 34-28 without Deshawn playing at all pretty much and Vogrich tackling Novak for a turnover and Darius freshmaning up another steal back to them. That's just two expamples of freshman mistakes that could have ended up in 4-6 points which would have tied or won the game. Perspective people, perspective please.