Previously: Last year’s profiles. S Damani Dent, S/Nk Zeke Berry, S/HSP Keon Sabb, CB Myles Pollard, CB/Nk Kody Jones, CB Will Johnson, LB Deuce Spurlock, LB Jimmy Rolder, DE/LB Micah Pollard, DE Derrick Moore, DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, DT Cam Goode, T Andrew Gentry, T/G Connor Jones, G Alessandro Lorenzetti, C Olu Oluwatimi, TE Marlin Klein, TE Colston Loveland, WR Amorion Walker, WR Tyler Morris, WR Darrius Clemons, RB CJ Stokes, QB Jayden Denegal.

Sachse, Texas – 6'3"/233
[Patrick Barron]		247: 6'2/226               3.57*	3*, 86, NR overall #50 QB, #126 TX
		Rivals: 6'3/210               3.87*	3*, 5.7, NR overall #9 QB-Dual, #55 TX
		ESPN: 6'2/205               4.03*	4*, 81, #54 Mids, #251 Ovr #21 ATH, #39 TX
		On3: 6'2/226               4.06*	4*, 90, NR overall #9 ATH, #58 TX
		Composite:               3.85*	3*, 0.8648, #493 ovr #30 QB, #59 TX
		Other Suitors	VT (decommit), TCU
		YMRMFSPA	Tim Tebow or Chase Winovich
Previously On MGoBlog	Commits. Spring game.
Notes	Yes: "Orgy." Brothers played at Vandy.
Film:
Senior Highlights: Hudl. Training.

Though he hasn't managed it at Michigan, Harbaugh used to always have two QBs in his classes, one the best pure passer he could find, the other an athlete with great stats who could transition to another role if he didn't win the job. The dual-threat of this class was the last player to join it, flipping from Virginia Tech on Early Signing Day.

The highly productive, frighteningly inaccurate Texan camped his way around the Midlands. Mo Linguist introduced him to Michigan, then left for Buffalo. That instability helped convince Orji to commit to VT, making it clear he was sticking around as long as Justin Fuentes and his coaching staff did. They didn't, and Michigan pounced, getting Orji up for a late official visit, fending off TCU, and putting a feather in Matt Weiss's recruiting cap. Then they gave everyone a good long look at what they grabbed in the spring game.

What we saw was an obvious heir to Dan Villari's "Villaricat" limited role as a change-of-pace dual-threat quarterback. We also saw the pre-freshman go 1/7 passing, with some of those misses not remotely close. That performance and Orji's reputation solidified a general opinion that this was an Athlete take, someone the program intended to trot out like 2008 Justin Feagin until it was the right time to try him on defense. That may yet be his fate, but I don't believe it was the plan. Matt Weiss is the guy who taught the Ravens how to use Lamar Jackson and Michigan what to do with true freshman JJ McCarthy, and Orji was far higher on Weiss's board than people realize.

Denegal may be the 2022 class's most quarterback-y quarterback, and ranked slightly higher on the Composite. But in case you missed spring, it was very clear which one arrived ahead. And after reading all the scouting on Orji, it's also clear who's got the highest ceiling.

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We have stats

After trying to glean from Idaho highlights and tales from the lower rungs of Jacksonville this cycle, scouting a guy out of high Texas ball is a very different experience. When Orji played at Rockwall he was receivers with, then throwing to Jaxon Simth-Njigba. Sasche High plays in District 9 of the 6A (the state's highest) classification, facing future D-I defenders most weeks. These games are all on YouTube! Orji did this:

Opponent	Res	Com	Att	Cm%	Yards	TD	INT	RYds	Car	TD(r)	YPC	QBR
Coppell	L 42-28	11	18	61%	130	2	1	82	14	0	5.9	147
Red Oak	W 64-42	14	23	61%	270	3	1	161	9	3	17.9	194
Braswell	L 38-28	17	32	53%	233	3	1	65	15	1	4.3	139
Lakeview Centenniel	W 56-21	14	22	64%	282	5	1	120	11	3	10.9	237
Rowlett	W 65-28	12	20	60%	251	4	0	37	6	2	6.2	231
North Garland	W 42-34	8	20	40%	200	3	0	176	20	1	8.8	174
Garland	L 54-41	16	26	62%	267	1	2	132	19	5	6.9	145
South Garland	W 60-17	13	23	57%	215	5	0	37	6	0	6.2	207
Wylie	W 38-7	9	20	45%	106	1	0	125	15	3	8.3	106
Naaman Forest	W 21-20	8	13	62%	37	0	0	86	22	2	3.9	85
Mesquite	L 42-19	5	20	25%	68	1	2	130	24	2	5.4	50
TOTAL	7-4 (6-1)	127	237	54%	2059	28	8	1151	161	22	7.1	159

That's doing numbers. The Garland game was particularly impressive—there were three 2022 four-stars on that defense (Michigan was after safety Chace Biddle). The 54% completion rating against high school competition, and the fact that he never got that above 64%, might be cause for concern, if he didn't average 8.7 yards per attempt, 16 yards per completion, and 3.5 touchdowns for every interception thrown. The 7.1 yards per carry (without sacks removed) is batty. The 28 passing touchdowns in 11 games: also batty.

There's also context, for example those Naaman Forest numbers look better if his receiver didn't drop a 55-yard pass I'd have marked DO on a UFR:

…or if any of his receivers thought to look for the pass when Orji threaded this 4th and 15 post over a safety.

But hand those stats to anyone and you can probably make some guesses:

• He's a runner.
• He's a gunner. You don't average 16 yards a completion if you're aiming short.
• His accuracy is questionable. 54 percent in any context.

Thrower Not a Passer

There's one very good reason not to write Orji off as just a running quarterback: his arm strength. Gabe Brooks of 24/7 broke down Orji's game after his original verbal to the Hokies in April 2021 and led with the ludicrous part:

The size and strength are evident when Orji shows the ability to make throws under extreme duress. We have seen situations where Orji puts good velocity on some throws despite defenders having a grasp on his lower half. His size and strength generate zip even in less-than-ideal scenarios.

After catching Orji at an Elite 11 region Brooks reiterated that "velocity is not in question as he repeatedly ripped throws that got on top of receivers quicker than they expected."

Most of the evaluations are some riff on this, including the choices of plays in Orji's highlight reel. He tends to get out of the pocket and throw off-platform, and the ball tends to get there anyways, with the conclusion, e.g. from Rivals's Sam Spiegelman, that you're witnessing "a true athlete":

Orji is big-framed (6-foot-2, 205) with massive arm strength and a threat to make plays with his legs in the open field. Orji makes the bulk of his throws in astonishing fashion -- throwing on the run or lofting a pass downfield or bulldozing defenders in his way to pay-dirt.

Ole Miss writer Yancy Porter describes a "a big and thick signal caller at 6-foot-2, 228-pounds.  Strong runner with a strong arm." Cole Patterson, who reports on Texas high school ball for Orangebloods (Rivals), said Orji "can beat you with his arm and when he is on the move." EJ Holland concurred he "definitely has a strong arm. He can get the ball downfield with ease" when Orji committed, then went down to Texas over the winter to see for himself:

…he’s definitely come a long way as a pure passer. The arm strength is certainly there. He had no issues getting the ball downfield during the session and actually showed better touch/accuracy than fellow quarterback pledge Jayden Denegal. Orji looked his best during drills that involved him throwing on the run. He’s very comfortable throwing while rolling to either side.

The idea: you get it. There are limits though, says Tim Sullivan is now editor of the VT Rivals site, and thus got to do a lot of Orji scouting over the 8 months he was committed to the Hokies:

While he doesn't have an absolute cannon, Orji has plenty of power to push the ball downfield, get it to the entire width of the field, and zip passes over the middle. Given that some of his throws are nearly all-arm (about which more in a moment), there's also even more upside and perhaps by the time he sees the field in Blacksburg he can have the type of power that's best described by comparisons to artillery. .. particularly on throws to the opposite sideline, which require the strength to get it there.

They're also describing a guy whose mechanics and accuracy are suspect at best. Brooks thought "improving that completion percentage with more consistent accuracy" would be the key to Orji's progression as a senior; he went from 51% to 54%. So yeah, it's not great. But it's also not Joe Milton's sub-.500 high school career, and there's a lot of context, and not just because he was so often throwing off-platform. Orji had no D-I receivers around him, and a lot of his good passes fell incomplete by no fault of his. Brooks suggested he "is perhaps the most comfortable when throwing on designed rollouts" because that allows him to use his feet.

The game tape shows a lot of it was also by necessity, for example half of his throws against Mesquite were after breaking at least one tackle. It also shows some gorgeous arcs when he throws on-platform.

Harbaugh said Orji is "probably a little more ahead in throwing right now than Jayden [Denegal],” which could mean Orji+ or Denegal- or both.

That said, there's also a lot of missing, as Alex Drain noted in our spring game recap:

Alex Orji is Joe Milton 2.0. You could say the same about Orji in terms of arm strength, but his accuracy was rough. Orji went 1/7 for 9 yards, and most of his throws were way overthrown, rifled over a receiver's head or 10 yards too deep.

The game tape shows this sometimes as well. He'll have a perfect moon shot to a receiver on one down, then leave an RPO slant dangerously high, or wobble a crossing route into a guy's hip. His receivers tended to give up way too early on plays, but sometimes Orji gives them reason.

Holland worried "the way the ball pops out of his hand was impressive at times, but it wasn’t always consistent," and hadn't become so by last January.

He was really inconsistent throughout the morning. Some throws really wowed me while others made me shake my head as he completely sailed them. Orji needs to continue working on his mechanics as well as his footwork. When everything comes together, he looks all-world. When it doesn’t, it looks, well, not great. Orjii also need keep improving his accuracy and control. He was actually better on his deep balls than he was on short-intermediate throws, especially when not on the move. Frazier is one of the top quarterback trainers in Dallas and has tightened up his throwing motion/mechanics.

Good Arc, Bad Footwork

Sullivan did note that Orji varied his passing strength to the occasion.

He has a nice ability to determine what sort of arc and velocity to put on a pass. He can drop it in a bucket over the top of a defender, and throws a nice, catchable ball when he recognizes that there's no need to zip it in there.

…but that he needs to become "more more consistent mechanically, particularly his footwork in a clean pocket."

While choosing a class 3-star who could be a future first-round pick, Spiegelman went with Orji's upside while defending his ranking because Orji "needs to improve his accuracy on various throws."

On the game film, Orji's tendency to run out of the pocket seemed to be the main driver of his accuracy issues. His protection, especially inside, was not great, and often targeted by opponents' interior blitzing. Orji's 28 to 8 TD-INT ratio, I believe, was very much a function of a run offense that mostly asked Orji to throw RPOs or long-developing deep routes. I noted that Orji will quite often be flushed from the pocket by a bad protection, break the first tackle, roll out, then throw the ball out of the back of the endzone. Often there's a first read on a simple route that he could have hit before all that happened.

This was a marked difference from the junior film, where Tim Sullivan observed "Orji likes to stand tall in the pocket and survey downfield."

He uses his legs to shift and find space within his tackle box, rather than showing a tendency to tuck and run at the first sign of adversity. He also has the courage to stand in and take a hit as or right after he gets rid of the ball.

Sullivan even went so far as to claim Orji "has a really good feel for the game" as of April 2021.

The ability to slide around in the pocket to buy time without being tempted to scramble is an important characteristic this VT staff seeks in a quarterback. … Refining the specifics of his footwork and mechanics will be less of an ordeal for a kid who has the tougher intangible parts down when it comes to being a QB, not just an athlete who can throw it a bit.

He waits for receivers to break open, does a good job throwing it to a part of the frame that only his wideout can get to (allowing him to box out defenders), and does it all with a consistency that belies the fact he's comfortable throwing with his feet set or moving/off platform. The flipside of that is that he does often wait a beat too long, particularly on timing routes, so getting the ball out on time will be something he wants to improve as he continues developing.

There's a lot more at the link, but what Sullivan described was "a very cerebral player" who was prone to fall back on his gifts:

A related issue is that his trust in his arm strength (and tendency to throw from unideal lower-body positions) combines with his solid athletic ability to encourage him to take some risks when the pocket closes a bit more quickly than expected. He gets to the edge, sees the pressure coming, and really wants to get rid of it downfield, which leads to some throws into traffic. That's a type of risk-taking that can be beneficial (it leads to big plays for the offense), but the frequency with which he does it will need to be honed to avoid the big mistake, as well.

That's what I saw a lot of on the senior tape. Maize & Blue Review's Brandon Justice compared the offense to Michigan's last year, in which case Orji was playing the role of JJ McCarthy minus a crucial aspect:

Film: Loves the deep ball and rightfully so, exceptional ball placement on the deep throws. … A bit unorthodox in how he sets his feet before his throws. Allows him to be a lethal improviser and thrower on the run. Spectacular touch, not a lot of zip. Could add good weight and in turn aid the arm strength without taking away from the speed.

Player comp: Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland

As a passer that's actually a pretty good comp, though I'd argue most high school quarterbacks are comparable to the worst-coached kid in the league. But of course, nobody's going to mistake TaTa, who averages 1 YPC, for a runaway train getting seven. Via even Cade McNamara, Orji has a long way to go to get to the other end of Big Tech quarterback development.

Usually when we say Michigan recruited an "athlete" that means they're getting him into the program then deciding which room he belongs in. In Orji they're recruiting an ATHLETE literally, as in the guy scored a 98.79 SPARQ rating, tops BY MORE THAN 3 POINTS at the elite 11 regional. 24/7's Gabe Brooks reported Orji "ran a 4.73-second 40-yard dash and a 4.59-second shuttle, while jumping 37-plus inches in the vertical" at 6'2"/225.

EJ Holland got a preview in Dallas, and came back swearing "the dude is built like a tank" yet moves like an eel.

The first thing that pops out about Orji is his size. … He has a cut up upper half and an extremely thick lower half. … He has adequate speed and the power to bust through defenders. … Harbaugh was fired up about his size and athleticism after signing day, and it’s not hard to see why. Orji came in at 233 during his weigh-in a Michigan and is a legit 6-foot-3.

Sullivan remarked at the height/mass for a guy with his ability in the run game, though lacking the acceleration of a true freak:

With the ball in his hands, Orji has a smooth gait that allows him to build up a head of steam. It also belies a little bit of side-to-side wiggle that allows him to set up tacklers to only get glancing blows on him. When they do, he shows leg strength and a stiffarm that prevent those tackles from being made. His desire to get the most out of every run play and not go down without a fight (whether through a juke or a broken tackle is evident.

Harbaugh himself described a "strong, powerful, fast runner" and Alex Drain noted Michigan was trying to showcase it:

his muscular build was apparent, rushing seven times for 35 yards, including one 23 yard keeper. Team Maize dialed up a couple designed Orji keepers in short yardage situations, so if you're looking for who will fill the VillariCat role this season, it looks like Orji.

The top speed is surprising, even if it takes time to build up. Watch him dust this DB:

But even the acceleration may be deceptively good. He turned the corner on a couple of guys in the spring game by having them underestimate how fast he could get that mass moving forward after getting stretched out. If you don't recognize #18, that's the track star walk-on that the program insists can ball out at cornerback.

Sullivan, for one, thought elite acceleration was the only thing lacking.

He's not the most "immediate burst" style of runner with the ball in his hands, but he gets up to speed quickly with a smooth gait, and as he develops comfort in a college scheme, being able to plant that first foot in the ground decisively in the run game could be something that improves slightly. He's also a fairly physical runner with a decent stiffarm and some lower-body strength to be more than just a "keep 'em honest" guy on the edge.

Later last summer however, Tim cautioned that fumbles were a recurring issue:

In the run game, he can carry the ball very loosely at times. While his highlight reel - obviously - does not show any fumbles, it's going to be a risk as he plays bigger, stronger, faster, smarter players at the next level.

A lot of that got cleaned up on his senior film. As long as that holds, Orji projects as a type of quarterback for a specific type of running system. Michigan fans mostly think of running QBs as a Denard speed demon to pair with a North-South RB. Orji is on the more Gardner end of the spectrum, the kind built for power read, inverted veer, and bash plays where the back is your outside runner and the QB is the downhill option. It's really the same play, just with the QB's and RB's jobs reversed.

That's a good fit with a (Blake Corum?)/Donovan Edwards/Cole Cabana speedster, and a hint of the direction Michigan's running game might be heading post-Gattis, not that they haven't been doing it already:

Harbaugh certainly appreciates it.

…when you meet him in person, he is — I don’t know what he weighs, but not an ounce of fat on him. It’s gotta be 235, 240? It’s like looking at Herschel Walker playing quarterback who can really throw the ball. So, super excited about him."

Upon meeting Orji in person, McNamara remarked that "Physically, Alex is very developed. He has extremely large legs. He’s gonna be hard to bring down if he’s out in the field."

One thing Denard was never that good at, and McNamara is unfortunately rather bad at, is making the correct read on those options, be they inside, outside, or run-pass. Orji has seen them all including the things that defenses will do to take away your reads, but the tape shows a lot of bad offensive reactions.

Will he stick on offense?

Orji was offered as a quarterback—in fact Michigan's insistence that he was going under center in their initial pursuit seemed to change the path of his recruitment in general. Michigan made initial contact (through Linguist) in late February 2021, and soon thereafter Orji was telling 24/7's Mike Roach and Gabe Brooks he wanted his designation changed from ATH to QB-Dual Threat. EJ Holland, who knows Orji from the Dallas 7v7 scene, managed to convince the Rivals people he used to work for to make the same change, then later felt the need to explain why his new site, On3 hadn't:

Orji is listed as an athlete on On3 due to his aforementioned size and athleticism, but he will get a fair shake to play quarterback at Michigan. This is a guy U-M quarterbacks coach Matt Weiss really liked, and there is a belief he can be developed at the position. …

Holland also reported Orji was always higher on Michigan's board than Denegal because Weiss (who had Lamar Jackson with the Ravens) wants that running threat. This is speculation, but that to me has the ring of a parent or the player telling the recruiting reporter "make sure you let them know that…" Anyway, around March 2021 Oklahoma and Texas Tech stopped poking around, and WVU, Virginia, and TCU fell behind Michigan and Virginia Tech, which also spoke exclusively about quarterback. It probably made a difference in Orji choosing Michigan over the Frogs on Signing Day. It's clear what he's here to do.

That said, Orji played receiver and defensive back in early high school, and a lot of observers, e.g. the Maize & Blue Review staff, seem to think "he’s also, rumor has it, quite the linebacker, should that switch ever happen." TCU thought Orji would make a fantastic receiver, LB, safety or DE. And channeling his own thoughts, Holland admits Orji's "biggest upside may be on defense" and knows exactly where he'd put him:

…his biggest upside may be as a linebacker/EDGE. Orji is such an impressive looking athlete with plenty of speed, athleticism and strength. Both of his older brothers play linebacker at Vanderbilt, and this Orji could be the best of the bunch.

Michigan added Derrick Moore at the end but the field OLB position got only swingman Micah Pollard after missing out on a lot of edge prospects they really wanted. If Michigan manages to bring in a quarterback in 2023 on par with the one who got away, yeah maybe you start thinking of exploring Orji's potential as an OLB/DE, since they don't have an obvious impact pass rusher to follow Ojabo. Since they whiffed on Dante Moore, and Orji was the higher QB on their board of the two they signed this year, Michigan probably has that possibility well stored in the attic for the time being.

Etc. 4.0 GPA, mom is a surgeon. I feel for Doug Bowman here.

Before we go any further, a caveat. We’re a long way from signing day, and who knows what might happen. In the best of times, both of these quarterbacks, as signal-callers in very reputable, fairly non-traditional Virginia Tech recruiting grounds (Orji more than Farrell), would get recruited up until the day they sign. And as we know with Virginia Tech, it’s not really the best of times. There’s a lot on the line this fall. What happens this spring and summer on the recruiting trail will likely be irrelevant if the Hokies go 6-6 this fall and Justin Fuente is let go.

The Hokies went 6-6, and Justin Fuente was let go. Courage, Doug.

Why Tim Tebow or Chase Winovich? I'm giving player likenesses here but not saying Orji is going to win the Heisman or singlehandedly set back Rashawn Slater's draft prospects. Tebow as a quarterback was a tank back first and passer second, with not enough accuracy or pocket poise to have a shot in the NFL, but hella fun to watch in college. Winovich was a former high school QB who bounced around between offense and defense before finding his calling as an undersized (6'2"/250) but relentless and beloved edge demon.

Guru Reliability: Very high. Played in a big league, scouted at numerous camps and 7v7s competitions. On3 didn't evaluate him other than letting EJ Holland go down there last winter, but it was a pretty straightforward scouting job where they're all saying the same things.

Variance: Very High. Could be a 3-year starter at quarterback who does the Haskins parts himself. Could be a freakishly awesome late-career edge rusher. Could get stuck behind 4 years of JJ McCarthy and the Next Big Thing and decide to go QB somewhere that doesn't care if he goes all TaTa.

Ceiling: High-. Big-armed QBs who can run make for really nice college players, but there's so far to go that I worry about Orji sticking around if it's taking awhile to happen. Think his accuracy issues limit him to good college player. His ceiling as an OLB is High, but they'd be starting from scratch, so that's more like a 2024 or 2025 thing.

General Excitement Level: Moderate+. Very interesting pickup who's better than people slotting him for OLB understand.

Projection: Very probable redshirt unless disaster strikes, since there's no way he can run the offense right now, and they have three scholarship guys who've already played on the big stage and a Walk On With a Story ahead. Might get in the 4 games as a Wildcat QB, or in mop-up duty. Michigan would love to keep both McNamara and McCarthy through the end of their eligibility, which runs through the 2024 season in both cases, but that would take some major NIL doing. I expect Cade to be in the NFL by this time next year, at which point McCarthy will need a guy who can back him up when his play style leads to dings. Orji probably won't be ready to be that guy in 2023, but he should take over the Villari role then. McCarthy or no, by 2024 the next guy has to be in line, and Orji has as good a shot as anybody right now. If he's not that guy by 2024, Michigan will probably talk to the redshirt sophomore about moving to defense.