A Comparison to Oregon, For comparison's sake
I'm a little bored at work so I decided to compare Michigan to the consensus #1 team in the country, Oregon. Basically, I thought of the one team that was the most akin to Michigan philosophically (in terms of the quick paced no huddle) yet more accomplished at the given moment. Ideally, this seems like the direction most Michigan (and RR) fans would like to go. A high powered offense that puts up enough points to make life easier on their defense.
Offensively, both teams are similar so I thought it would be interesting to see what varied statistically in Oregon's progression under Chip Kelly vs Michigan's under Rich Rodriguez. Keep in mind that Chip Kelly inherited the program and didn't have to undergo quite the transition Michigan had to under RR, as well as the fact they've had the same DC (Aliotti) for several years now. A couple of stats (as indicated by ?'s) I still need to dig up, but I figured I'd post this to instill a little discussion.
Oregon Defense
Year | G | Pts/G | Yds/G | PsYds | RuYds | Int | IntTD | FRec | T | PassDef | Sack |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 12 | 23.8 | 386.8 | 3004 | 1638 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 960 | 82 | 38.5 |
2008 | 12 | 28 | 383 | 3163 | 1433 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 988 | 23 | 38 |
2009 | 12 | 23.6 | 329.4 | 2433 | 1520 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 951 | ? | 36 |
2010 | 9 | 17.7 | 329.0 | 1822 | 1139 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 707 | ? | 26 |
Oregon Offense
Year | G | Pts/G | Yds/G | PsYds | RuYds | 1stD/G | 3rdM | 3rd% | 4thM | 4thD% | Pen | PenYds | TOP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 12 | 36.7 | 462.1 | 2626 | 2919 | 24.7 | 81 | 41.8 | 6 | 42.9 | 66 | 577 | 28:54 |
2008 | 12 | 41.9 | 478.2 | 2404 | 3334 | 23.3 | 66 | 39.1 | 7 | 41.2 | 89 | 772 | 25:19 |
2009 | 12 | 37.7 | 424.7 | 2263 | 2833 | 20.9 | 57 | 36.3 | 13 | 65 | 87 | 746 | 26:58 |
2010 | 9 | 54.7 | 567.2 | 2356 | 2749 | 27.8 | 60 | 48.8 | 10 | 58.8 | 65 | 607 | 27:11 |
Michigan Defense
Year | G | Pts/G | Yds/G | PsYds | RuYds | Int | IntTD | FRec | T | PassDef | Sack |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008(Schafer) | 12 | 28.9 | 366.9 | 2760 | 1643 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 811 | 10 | 29 |
2009 (GERG) | 12 | 27.5 | 393.3 | 2657 | 2063 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 882 | ? | 21 |
2010 (ugh) | 9 | 33.9 | 454.2 | 2570 | 1518 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 681 | ? | 12 |
Michigan Offense
Year | G | Pts/G | Yds/G | PsYds | RuYds | 1stD/G | 3rdM | 3rd% | 4thM | 4thD% | Pen | PenYds | TOP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 12 | 20.3 | 290.8 | 1718 | 1771 | 15.5 | 48 | 27.3 | 14 | 70.0 | 57 | 500 | 27:38 |
2009 | 12 | 29.5 | 384.5 | 2380 | 2234 | 19.6 | 66 | 39.8 | 7 | 36.8 | 58 | 517 | 26:25 |
2010 | 9 | 38.9 | 535.9 | 2362 | 2461 | 24.2 | 57 | 48.3 | 10 | 66.7 | 44 | 452 | 27:33 |
Note: I obviously forgot turnovers which are probably pretty significant difference between Michigan and Oregon (at least at the moment). I'll edit later once I finish this post. Edit: Updated the Tackles (for some reason rivals was horribly inaccurate, the tackles are now indicative of the total tackles (solo&assisted)) and Fumbles Recovered Categories.
One thing I noticed is that while the 2007 and 2008 Oregon teams were putting up big numbers offensively, their defense was still giving up 380+ yards a game. However, the points they allowed were kept in check because they managed 37 interceptions in those 2 years. I understand that youth in the secondary is a huge issue for us, but I can't help but think that Aliotti is willing to gamble more due to the fact that he knows that Chip Kelly's offense will produce.
I think the last defensive play vs Illinois shows what our defense can be capable of when they're not predictable on a down by down basis. Our youth is still going to make mistakes, but when you tell a young linebacker or young cornerback that they are going to be blitzing, they want to make a play, and they all should know how to blitz (and hopefully not whiff). Obviously you wouldn't want to be predictable, so I would hope GERG would adopt a blitzing philosophy similar to the New Orleans Saints... while their defense may give up a lot of yards on a down to down basis, their wide array of blitzes (in an unpredictable fashion) forces opponents to make a lot of hurried throws or forces TFLs, which can make a significant difference.
Bottom line, I think our D being overly conservative has a lot do with their struggles (the youth obviously is a bigger factor). I really don't mind giving up homerun plays once in awhile if it means we force a turnover or put opponents in 3rd and long situations. We have an offense that we know can produce, and the longer they're on the field the more they seem to gel.
November 9th, 2010 at 9:12 PM ^
have more TOP, therefore we win.
/s..duh
I think no matter who our DC is next year our defense will be way better than this year.
November 9th, 2010 at 9:46 PM ^
Oregon fan for 16 years now. The main reason I was/am excited RR was hired as our coach is that Oregon runs his offense. Now I assume you know this because you have 4500 points and I have 20. But seriously, in my job I run into a lot of Michigan football fans. A lot of them only know Michigan football and have been uncertain about coach RR. The first thing I have been telling them is to watch Oregon football because that is what we are going to become. Oregon football has actually seen me thru some of these hard times because I know RR is going to get us there. Be excited for what our future holds. Anyway, dont neg me too bad just starting some discussion. RR still consults Chip on offense.
November 9th, 2010 at 9:59 PM ^
He better take it easy on the advice since they are gonna be seeing each other in Rose Bowls and MNC games.
November 9th, 2010 at 10:18 PM ^
Agreed, and watching the balance between Thomas and James at Oregon right now makes me just think of the possibilities once that elite RB is in place in this offense. The potential is limitless.. Consider this: Oregon has arguably the fastest RB in the country and averages about 30 more yards a game than us... they also play Pac-10 defenses while we're in a conference more reknowned for it's defensive juggernauts than it's high powered offenses. Even if we lose to Wisconsin/OSU, I wouldn't doubt that we can easily put up 400+ yards on both of those teams... we just need our defense to hold up it's end of the bargain.
November 9th, 2010 at 10:31 PM ^
Is there a typo in the Oregon defensive stats, or did they really go from 589 tackles to 314 from 2007 to 2008?
November 10th, 2010 at 12:49 AM ^
No typo, I pulled the stats from rivals (@yahoo). Updating the rest of the blanks right now.
edit: rivals had the tackle stats horribly askew... not sure if they were only counting solo tackles or something, hence the giant discrepancy. It now includes the total solo+assisted tackles for all years (from cfbstats.com).
November 9th, 2010 at 11:17 PM ^
November 9th, 2010 at 11:28 PM ^
I agree with the assessment above on Pac 10 D vs Big 10 D, and I think it goes for all of the other power conferences as well. If Michigan can put up 500+ yards per game right now, once the machine gets rolling with consistent upperclassmen on both sides of the ball we are going to roll our bowl match-ups.
IMO the Big 10 is always physical from top to bottom on defense and I can't say that for any other conference. I am sure a lot of people will disagree but I think the bottom half of the SEC, Pac 10 etc. are not as punishing. To put 500+ yards on Iowa, 600 in regulation on Illinois and not just our cupcakes shows me that this team isn't having problems with the better defenses in the Big 10 and they are only going to get better. I think at the end of the spectrum is a team that could break all kinds of records offensively.
Like everybody keeps saying--- "if we had a D?..." --- And I think its coming. The crazy thing about it is we have better athletes all over the field on offense except at RB and were younger than Oregon outside of their QB and RB. This team could, and should take a major leap forward next year. I am extremely excited about that. I just hope we make a jump on D and get some great recruits to fill some holes for our future.
November 9th, 2010 at 11:56 PM ^
Gary Crowton, the much maligned OC for Leslie Miles at LSU, started Oregon's transition to the spread back in 2005. When Chip Kelly took over in 2007, Dennis Dixon was a 5th year senior with 1.5 years of starting experience in the spread already. We are probably closer to the 2007 version of Oregon on offense.
November 10th, 2010 at 12:54 AM ^
I'd like to point out that Schafer's defense statistically looks more aggressive than GERGs. I'm going to out on a limb and say if I included TFLs it would probably show more of the same.
November 10th, 2010 at 3:01 AM ^
9 point per game on offense improvement again next year, thanks. Can we please do that on defense too?
November 10th, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^
Oregon does not run the QB as much as we do with Denard nor is he expected to account for as many yards. Obviously it is skewed due to having James in the backfield, but watching Tate play this year is a better proxy between the two programs. The issue with Tate 2010 is that he is often being forced to pass more due to the situation he is dealing with during the games he has played. Even still, he runs to keep the D honest, not to execute the offense. This is similar to the use of Thomas at Oregon.