An honest question from the hated los barcos re expectations
i know i come off as the mgoblog negative nancy - which i really dont mean to - i just want to ask this question without being accused of being a "bandwagon" fan who is not "all in". in my quest to devour michigan material, i came across this popular sentiment from the in rod we trust link:
I never even considered projecting more than eight wins for this team prior to the season, so I don’t understand the apocalyptic attitude certain fans are taking.
im curious to hear the opinions of the people who say "i predicted this team to b e 7-5/8-4 at the start of the year and thats what they still may finish" .
theoretically, with rich we hired one of the best coaches in the game...but at what point will the team exceed expectations as opposed to meeting the lowest threshold? in his first year we thought they would be bad...and they were bad. the second year, we thought they were going to be better but still bad, and they were exactly that. now, i know there is still alot of football to be played (we could do really well, for example, and win out...........right?) but its starting to look - for the third year in a row - that rich will only meet our lowest expectations.
ill try to phrase this as delicately as possible to avoid the ubiquitous "fuck you barcos, die in a fire" rants, but is it not reasonable to expect more from one of the "best coaches in college football" after three years?
bare cupboard, freshmen secondary, the DECIMATED DEFENSE BY MISPOGEN, sophomore qb blah blah blah. ive read all the valid reasons for the team's struggles (or excuses, depending what you want to call them) but in the end, cant the "best young coach in the game" turn an average team into a better than average team?
October 11th, 2010 at 3:09 PM ^
Not to hang too much on your 2008 Wisconsin example, since it is just an example, but when I rewatched that game on BTN this summer, I forgot how bad Wisconsin played. Part was a better than normal performance from Michigan, but a lot of it was terrible play by Wisconsin in the second half.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:17 PM ^
Fair enough - its a bit unfair to blindside you with such nitpicking. I am just tired of what sound like excuses. We heard them in 2008 and said "ok, you all are right, let's wait". Then we heard them in 2009, and we all finally said "ok, you guys are right, let's just wait another year." And here we are. However, the evidence is obviously not in yet, and perhaps we should just see what happens.
October 11th, 2010 at 5:27 PM ^
this year's youth on defense is as on-par an excuse as "sheridammit" - they're winning the games they should as of now. that's as much proof that things aren't completely lost as i need. if this team loses to Purdue... yeah.
/jinx'd
October 12th, 2010 at 12:54 AM ^
Because you could just as easily say, from the same season, he got completely outcoached by a Toledo coach who had a much worse team, and was so bad himself he got fired, so Rich has show he gets outcoached by anybody. That's not fair, but it's as valid as the Wisconsin example.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:08 PM ^
When you're referencing this team.....
I think I'd have to go with the opposite of RR being outcoached in the opener of the 2008 season.
October 11th, 2010 at 4:06 PM ^
Jesus man. I didn't say he was out-coached by Utah, Purdue, MSU, or Toledo. I was trying to say that GB can't just cite one team to argue about RR's coaching ability, that it was a selective use of the data. I do not know who out-coached who in those games, but I do know you can't just talk about one team when making your case. This having to break down every argument is getting old.
October 11th, 2010 at 5:23 PM ^
"I do not know who out-coached who in those games,..." but I'll try to use them of examples of why RR is terrible and needs to be fired.
What is getting old is people failing to understand why Michigan is in the position they are in. Those of us who are unhappy with the results, but understand some of the reasons behind them, get very tired of having to explain it all over and over again.
Sorry for singling you out to react to, but I've just about had enough today.
I think I could take it all a little easier if the anti-RR faction wasn't so damn impatient. I can understand not liking his scheme, or his personnel decisions with re: defensive coaches, and even some of the chances he has taken in recruiting. What I have zero tolerance for is the people who don't even want to give him a chance to make this work. I wish the AD would just come out and say that he has until the end of next year to make this work. IME, 4 years is what it takes to rebuild after such a drastic change in coaches. To give him less time would seem like the hire was just an absolute waste.
/rant
October 12th, 2010 at 12:57 AM ^
Show me where he ever said Rich should be fired? You can't. He was just saying that he was tired of the same excuses in year 3 as in year 1. The same ones you drop again here.
If impatient is year 3 of a program (where a lot of people have won National Titles in less time), maybe you're a bit too patient. No one has said "why aren't we #1!!".....just why are we getting our ass kicked by MSU in year 3??
October 11th, 2010 at 5:30 PM ^
of a HORRIBLE UM team coached UP to compete. they didn't just get lucky against Wisconsin - they called plays that exploited either poor play, mismatches or film-evident issues. that's good coaching under your own definition of making results with low(er) quality than the opponent. that's why i brought it up. and as i said it was an example of how the team has performed through good coaching, not the sole example/reason/whatever
October 11th, 2010 at 8:00 PM ^
I feel that RR has been outcoach as a HC in the ND game and the UMass game, if you take into account gameplanning and preparation for the game and the in-game adjustments, during the game with all aspects of the game; offense, defense, and special teams. As for RR as "co-offensive coordinator" he has been neutral or outcoaches the other coach, ie UConn. The ND game, I feel that if Crist wasn't injured, it could have possibly led to a different game but BK held it together and had a shot to win. Mich could have possibly ended the game by putting so much pressure on ND with a score or two. But this game is a toss-up really. The UMass game, the HC kept the game competitive until the end. Most, if not all, believe that this should have been an easy win. Indiana, the first half could have gone to Lynch but the second half and the adjustments is why I consider that RR outcoached Lynch. In conclusion, RR has outcoached as a HC in the UConn, BGSU, Indiana game, been somewhat outcoached (in my opinion but can really be a toss-up) in the ND game, marginally outcoached in the UMass game. The games that I am looking forward to to have a better indication of this "outcoaching or outcoached" debate are the Illinois (the key focus for mine because of how they have been playing as of late), PSU and Purdue.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:04 PM ^
*note, I was only looking at games in which MICH had equal or better talent and that is why I chose to not include MSU (Iowa, Wisconsin and OSU for the future games) and that we just don't know at this point what is going to happen during games later on in the season.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:34 PM ^
Being a horrible, horrible pessimist who has been told by his doctor to stop watching football games or cope with football-induced stress better, a win usually exceeds my expectations these days haha.... sigh :(
October 11th, 2010 at 2:35 PM ^
Taking into account the circumstances isn't making excuses. Teams don't win the national title with zero experienced talent in the secondary. I predicted this team would go 9-3 (thinking, correctly, that PSU would be down and that we could snag a shootout win over one of OSU, Iowa, MSU, or Wisconsin). I still think it is a pretty safe bet. I also think 9-3 is better than average (or at least sufficiently good by Michigan standards, especially given the circumstances).
Rodriguez has turned a group with only two senior starters into one of the best offenses in the country. That side of the ball is overachieving. On the other side, we aren't trying to turn an average defense into a good defense. We are trying to turn a horrible defense into a group that can do just enough to win against good competition. Next year the defense will be much better as the young talent in the freshman/sophomore classes continues to develop and by 2012 they will be a very solid unit. My expectations will rise accordingly.
October 11th, 2010 at 4:43 PM ^
Eh - we thought the same about the offense last year too, and then we hit the meat of the big ten schedule. (I know, I know: Molk and Tate)
I am not saying fire RIch. I am saying (and have said since Rich was hired) this is a big experiment, a big gamble on Bill Martin's shoulders, and Rich has to prove his offense in Big Ten conference play.
If the defense can continue to hold an opponent to 34 points, and the offense can perform against Big Ten defenses then we should see more wins of a thousand cuts this season, and a post season. If the offense sputters (as they did last year) against Big Ten defenses, then the result will be similar.
So we shall see.
(I am just hoping the NCAA holds off for another week - we don't need the distraction this week ...)
October 11th, 2010 at 2:36 PM ^
The offense is everything I thought that it could be and more this season. The defense could have been average this year, but with injuries you have to think that the ceiling would be average so they are going to suck most of the time.
That is exactly what we have this year. Great-O, Bad- D.
Next year we should have Great-O, Average -D. BCS-ish
The following year I am hoping for Great -O, Good-D. NC consideration
At the end of the day though I am a fan until I die and as long as the coach is a model citizen and keeps the guys growing into leaders of men I really can't see disrespecting the man. If DB thinks RR is doing a good enough job to continue who am i to think that he isn't. I live in grand rapids. DB talks to RR every day. I'm sure neither like to lose.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:37 PM ^
You MISPELED MISPOGEN.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:49 PM ^
I think this post just broke the record for the 5,436th permutation of I hate this coaching hire, Fire Rich Rod meme. and for that you just won the internets .....again.
First you are entitled to your opinion, but if you are here for ths sake of discussion why are you dismissing rational well thought out supported by good data arguments before they are presented. That smacks of ....kind like arguing with yourself.
Is this your arguement really " cant the "best young coach in the game" turn an average team into a better than average team? " vailed in expectations of the season record? That's funny I didn't see what your expectations record wise. Ah ha! there it is you really are not here to discuss records or expectations (I see what u did there). At the risk of shaming and blaming players I'll offer this. An old southern saying goes like this you can't shine a turd. Well that was probably a little too plain spoken probably and uncalled for. How about.....oh nevermind you wouldn't get it anyway.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:38 PM ^
to you?
Do you really not think this team is "better than average"? If so, the coaches that vote in the USA Today poll disagree with you. As do the AP voters. In the eyes of these experts, this team is no worse than the 26th best team in the country. I would post a .gif about how confused I am regarding your inability to understand that this team and coach are, apparently, exceeding your own criteria for progress. In year one, as you say, our expectations were low and the team was awful. In year two, our expectations were higher and the team was better. In year three, are expectations are yet higher and the team, at this point, can't be said to have failed and from nearly any vantage point indicate an improved team. We currently have a team that may well be third best in the Big Ten and is almost certainly one of the five best. That's "above average" and that's progress. If people think you're being irrational, it's because, by your own stated criteria, you are.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:41 PM ^
Why don't you just say you don't like RR because he is a hillbilly and then wait for his demise and shut up with this garbage.
RR is not going anywhere. He will have the #1 ranked offense in the country next year and by the end of the year 10 of the 11 starters on defense returning plus Woolfolk(Ezeh and Rogers won't be starting against OSU in my opinion) plus Robinson, Furman etc..added to the rotation. The d will be mcuh better next year.
If you don't like him leave because he's not going anywhere anytime soon and keep your trap shut when we're 10-0 playing Nebraska next year the party will be closed. You can go root for Florida or Alabama.
October 12th, 2010 at 1:01 AM ^
Next year, give me some of what you're smoking.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:41 PM ^
.....ubiquitous "f@#$ you barcos, die in a fire" rant....
October 11th, 2010 at 2:41 PM ^
Yeesh...we're 5-1, dude. The defense sucked on Saturday, sure. But Jesus, get a grip. You're acting like we're 5-5.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:45 PM ^
People need to chill out! I can't believe how far the psychy of this fan base has fallen!
October 11th, 2010 at 2:51 PM ^
Psychy? Nice.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:50 PM ^
UM will be 5-5 soon enough, just be patient.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:54 PM ^
unfortunately was not the first time the defense sucked.
a little premature question, perhaps, and if we can look back at the end of the year and say "wow this team sure overachieved" than ill be eating a lot mgoblog crow. and ill be the first to admit that. but if we also look back at the end of the year and say "wow, this team was exactly as shitty as i thought they would be" than what he hell has richrod given us? you cant shine a turd, as one poster above was smart enough to inform me, but you can sure as hell use it as manure.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:56 PM ^
Are you speaking of manure in its capacity as a fertilizer? Because that's the argument people have been making for a while: you have to give the youngsters time to grow.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:56 PM ^
Get a grip. They're young, they're thin, we knew this was the way it would be this year.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:01 PM ^
or leave for the NFL. You saw a little bit of what this D could do in the first half against MSU until our secondary got exposed.
This team has exceeded expectations by going down to ND and winning, along with a couple convincing wins in UConn and BGSU. A lot people thought we'd lose to UConn and ND.
To be 5-1 right now is not where the majority of pundits would have us. To be honest, a lot people would have been surprised to see us at 5-3 as a worst case scenario.
At least right now, RichRod has given us a record breaking offense. That's not all bad.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^
Is better than average. Throw in wins they should get against Illinois, PSU, and Purdue and that's 8 right there. Any wins against Iowa, WI, or OSU is 9. 8 or 9 wins with this defense would be one hell of a coaching job by Rodriguez. The offense is in place. The recruits are excited about Michigan again, and a solid winning season is within reach in spite of the defense having to cobble together a secondary that makes NFL replacement players look like the 85 Bears. Even with this crushing loss (that I would rate on a pain-scale of 8 if App St is a 10), I am still excited about the future. The valleys have been lower, but I think the peaks will be higher under Rodriguez. 3 bad passes. 18 points. 35-34? Let's not give up on 2010 just yet, and don't turn last Saturday into the goal line stand at Illinois yet either.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:46 PM ^
8 or 9 wins with this defense is a remarkable coaching job for Rodriguez in the short term. But that ignores that he has some long term responsibility for the defense being as bad as it is.
October 11th, 2010 at 5:35 PM ^
Where did you see any of us saying that RR doesn't have some responsibility with the defense being where it is? Of course he does, but I think most reasonable people would understand that he doesn't have a ton of responsibility. Let's just go through a basic run down on the defense.
Seniors: No responsibility aside from retention and conditioning. Lloyd had checked out on the recruiting, so the talent level is pretty low.
Juniors: The RS juniors wouldn't be his recruits. He could have tried to squeeze some recruits into his first partial clas, but not surprisingly, he wanted some guys to run his offense. Hindsight being what it is, we can agree he should have gotten some defensive talent. The rest of the class is on Lloyd, so the senior explanation still stands.
Soph: All his. After the single worst season in the modern era. Yay Denard. Lot of players pressed into early action with no red shirt year. The amount of attrition out of this class is a problem, but I'm not terribly surprised due to the expectations placed on these kids that they might not have been ready for or capable of handling. Definitely would have been good to see more emphasis on the defensive side of the ball. Would have been nice if the 2 CB he was expecting to have play the year (Warren and BooBoo) hadn't left early or gone dumb.
Fresh: Much more balance recruiting class, but even then, lot of early playing time. With a lack of talented experience these guys can't take the RS that many of them needed.
October 11th, 2010 at 6:22 PM ^
No one is saying it, but when you say "given how shitty things are, if we do x, Rodriguez has done a remarkable job" without saying that Rodriguez played a substantial part in why things were shitty in the first place... well that's a pretty big omission.
And at this point you can't put the performances of seniors and redshirt juniors mostly on Lloyd. For all of these guys, the majority of their college careers have been under Rodriguez. The development of these guys has been poor.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:10 PM ^
I'm agreeing with (and upvoting) Magnus. Shit has gotten out of hand. We have the worst fanbase in the country and the idiots and chicken littles are starting to outnumber the rational ones.
This is proof positive that I need another nice, long break from commenting on this Board. Have fun with the doom and gloom. See you next year, guys (maybe).
October 11th, 2010 at 7:29 PM ^
We have the worst fanbase in the country
You must have never been to Columbus.
October 11th, 2010 at 8:00 PM ^
We're worse because we should know better.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:29 PM ^
that you are too negative on this defense / team you need to take a step back, Senor Barcos.
October 12th, 2010 at 1:03 AM ^
Of the team. It's great to say we're 5-1...but with who we played...it only matters if you think we're going to win more than we lose the rest of the way too. Now, at this point, what do you think our record will be? Because if you say 7-5, after we're 5-1...well, 5-5 isn't so far off.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:54 PM ^
The reality is that this program crashed and burned between the 2007 and 2008 seasons. We can argue forever about why it happened, but it did. From spring camp in 2008, we've been in major rebuilding mode. Your problem is that you simpy don't recognize this, and demand championship seasons from teams that aren't championship-caliber. The realistic thing to hope for is that things get better each season until we're a championship program again. If progress doesn't happen, then we'll have to go in a new direction.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:55 PM ^
Yes, you are kind of a douchebag. That was the question right?
October 11th, 2010 at 3:11 PM ^
There was not one single thing douchey or wrong with this OP or the opinion he expressed. I don't think you're a douche at all, but this comment sure makes you look like one.
It's perfectly legitimate to question whether RR is the right coach for this program or not. I don't agree myself, but asking the question-or even asserting that it is true-should be perfectly acceptable to a secure and objective group of people. So he constantly talks about Lloyd Carr. So he asserts that RR isn't dong a good job. The fact that he gets called a douchebag or told to die because he has this opinion is a fucking disgrace IME.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:17 PM ^
I don't think anyone actually wants losbarcos to die or actually thinks he's a douchebag in real life.
October 11th, 2010 at 4:43 PM ^
It is true that I don't actually want him to die in a fire...
October 11th, 2010 at 6:15 PM ^
Look, he titled it, "an honest question..." then caveat'ed the hell out of it, called people out, said things like "I've heard the valid reasons (or excuses...", generalized his expectations to everyone else, and overall came off like he was pouring salt in an open wound. I don't think this spurs quality discourse. Your mileage may vary.
October 11th, 2010 at 2:58 PM ^
Never took a senior laden team steeped in one offensive system for 4-5 years with heisman potential candiates with first and second round talent and lose to 1AA App St.
October 12th, 2010 at 1:05 AM ^
Toledo...cough....
October 11th, 2010 at 3:00 PM ^
I personally think that whether or not this team meets expectations in terms of wins and losses is not the most important aspect in evaluating Rich Rod's work. Coming into this year, I wanted to see an offense that could show reproducable offense. Even watching the first 4 games last year, I couldn't help but think that our methods of scoring (broken plays, scrambling, kick return) were not reliable in the long run. This year we have scored primarily by creating a game plan, and executing this game plan. Therefore, thus far anyway, Rich Rod has met (and exceeded) my expectations.
As far as the defense goes, I think its clear the talent level is not there. However, even when Rich Rod was hired, I was not expecting him to field excellent defenses. I believed that an excellent, uptempo offense combined with an average Michigan defense would be a winning formula. Because of the progress of the offense this year, I believe this idea is still on track.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:00 PM ^
Are you saying you expected 9+ wins at the outset of the season? Why did you expect that? Was it as simple as RR = elite coach and elite coach + 3 years = 9+ wins?
If you did not expect 9+ wins, why did you draft a rambling post criticizing others for having the same expectations you had?
October 11th, 2010 at 3:01 PM ^
Is it terribly disappointing that our defense is so bad in year three. Yes. Knowing what I knew coming into the season are the results at all surprising? No.
I think a better question than the one asked is this: the defense has gotten worse every year since Rodriguez's arrival, is it reasonable to hope that this defense will eventually improve, not just marginally, but to the point where they don't hold us back from being perennial contenders for the big ten title?
To answer that, I'm not sure. I'd like to say we're young, so yes, but certainly not if attrition keeps up the way it has been. And even if it stops, the development of our underclassmen has been disappointing. Syracuse has had even more attrition than we have since Marrone showed up and in year 2 of Shafer they're lightyears ahead of where we are. I don't know what to say about that.
October 11th, 2010 at 3:03 PM ^
It's certainly reasonable to expect him not to have the worst pass defense in FBS, regardless of personnel losses (whether you blame that on him or not).