What will it take for Michigan to make the tournament?
With 4 games remaining in the season, Michigan sits at 7-7 in the Big Ten and 17-10 overall; we are squarely on the bubble, but currently on the right side of it. I'm not a bracketology expert, so I wanted to pose a few scenarios to those who are more well versed in the subject.
I think it seems pretty clear that if we go 3-1 in our final four games, we are in safely (barring a blowout loss in the first round of the BTT). On the other hand, if we go 1-3 or worse we are out (barring a Big Ten Tournament Championship, or maybeeeeee a competitive loss in the finals).
Furthermore, if we go 2-2 AND win 2 or more games in the Big Ten tournament (make it to the semis or finals) we should be in. Conversely, 2-2 with a first round loss in the BTT means we're likely out.
Therefore, there are two scenarios that provide murkier outcomes, both involving Michigan going 2-2 in the rest of the regular season and winning just one game in the Big Ten tournament. This would mean Michigan would finish 20-13 overall, with a 10-10 record in the conference (including the tournament).
- The Most Predictable Outcome: Michigan finishes the Big Ten regular season 9-9 after beating both Rutgers and Nebraska on the road, but falling to Purdue in Crisler and Northwestern in Evanston. Michigan wins their first game in the Big Ten tournament, but loses game 2 in the quarterfinals to one of Wisconsin, Purdue or Maryland.
- One Upset Win and One Bad Loss: Michigan beats Rutgers, then splits its remaining games against tournament teams by picking up a big win against either Purdue or Northwestern, yet the Wolverines end the season on a sour note by dropping a bad loss in Lincoln to the Huskers. Once again, we win our Thursday game in D.C., but lose on Friday to a ranked team.
Of the two scenarios above, how likely would we be to make it? Would we have a chance in either? Is one of the scenarios better for our chances than the other?
I personally think it might be better to get another Top 50 win and lose to Nebraska, than just beat the teams we're supposed to beat.
February 19th, 2017 at 10:55 PM ^
MOAR THREADS!
February 19th, 2017 at 10:57 PM ^
I'll give you a +1 because you're right.
HOWEVER, this one isn't about the Minnesota game! So it's kind of different lol
February 20th, 2017 at 8:09 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 8:10 AM ^
I was expecting to hear Webb and Weintraub discuss this today but I forgot they don't work on bank holidays.
February 19th, 2017 at 10:57 PM ^
This is actually a good thread though.
February 20th, 2017 at 8:09 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 11:16 AM ^
...neutral refs.
February 19th, 2017 at 11:03 PM ^
Win 3 of 4 (losing to Northwestern). Win one game in the B1G and head to the dance.
Count on it.
GO BLUE!!
February 19th, 2017 at 11:44 PM ^
Haas and Swanigan on Purdue might out rebound our whole team.
That is a 50/50 toss up at best even at home.
ugh.
February 19th, 2017 at 11:12 PM ^
Sorry, but it will take a miracle for Michigan to make the NCAA Tournament now. This isn't one of Michigan's better teams. I would rather see them make a deep run in the NIT and get the young guys some tournament experience.
February 19th, 2017 at 11:33 PM ^
A miracle? Michigan has 9 top RPI wins (5 more than last years tournmant team) and is 17-10 (7-7).
What bubble teams get in ahead of us?
Clemson 14-12 (4-10)
Texas Tech 17-10 (5-9)
TCU 17-10 (6-8)
Syracuse 16-12 (8-7)
Wake Forest 15-12 (6-9)
Georgia Tech 16-11 (7-7)
Seton Hall 16-10 (6-8)
Providence 16-11 (6-8)
Marquette 16-10 (7-7) *We blew them out on a neutral court
Michigan St (16-11) (8-6)
***And Michigan has more top 100 RPI than any of these teams and better RPI than most.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:11 PM ^
You say this every year. Nobody wants this. Ever. No coach, no player, no recruit, no fan. This is also a pretty good Michigan team. Talented (3rd most talented team under Beilien). Playing hard. Top 30 in kenpom despite a stretch in which we decided not to play defense. Got hosed tonight but that's a road game against a team that's top 25 RPI. We could definitely make the sweet 16 and we could have last year (were leading eventual elite 8 ND with 5 min left).
NIT tournament experience is stupid because they're home games that no one cares about. Three of those aren't even as good for a team's experience as preparing for one neutral site game in the Big Dance.
February 19th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
The bubble is really weak this year. I think finishing with 3 more wins including the Big Ten Tournament is enough to get in regardless of who we beat.
February 19th, 2017 at 11:27 PM ^
The bubble is always weak, honestly. We got in with .500 Big Ten records in 2009 and 2011.
February 19th, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^
Probably 20 wins, although getting in with 19 isn't out of the question. Tonight's loss is frustrating because it was a golden opportunity to pretty much seal the deal, with Rutgers coming up next, but we're still in OK shape if we win Wednesday..
February 19th, 2017 at 11:24 PM ^
February 19th, 2017 at 11:53 PM ^
That one still counts, right?
February 20th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^
feels like it happened just 3-9 months ago.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:24 PM ^
For me it seems only like 32-23 days ago.
February 20th, 2017 at 10:14 AM ^
Depending on which metric you prefer, Kenpom or RPI, State has a really good to pretty good non-conference win. They beat Wichita St which is ranked 13th in Kenpom but 45th in rpi.
February 19th, 2017 at 11:42 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 1:26 AM ^
Purdue is not anywhere near a must win. Where did that come from ?
February 20th, 2017 at 9:13 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
either Purdue or NW but not both and that will be enough "top 50 wins" to go along with our top 100 wins.
February 19th, 2017 at 11:44 PM ^
February 19th, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^
I think winning the big 10 tourney should be enough to get them in
February 20th, 2017 at 12:29 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 12:44 AM ^
the regular season. One in the BTT and we're in. This loss hurts our hearts more than it hurts our chances.
Lose to Rutgers and it might be a different story
February 20th, 2017 at 1:08 AM ^
between your two scenarios because like you said - if the tradeoff of losing Nebraska which isn't a "good" loss but it's still top 100, is beating Purdue or NW - it would even it out.
I think 20 wins will be enough, as long as 19 are in the regular season, no matter which games we win. I'm more concerned with seeding for tourney run which is what hurt so bad about tonight. Probably cost two seed lines and put a possible 6 seed nearly out of the picture (would have to win next four to have a chance).
February 20th, 2017 at 1:25 AM ^
If we win 2 more games we have a decent chance to be in. Win 3 more games and it is 90% +.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:26 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 2:31 AM ^
If you mean the tournament proper, as in not the play-in / needless expansion round, probably 4 more wins, one less if Purdue. For the play-in, 3 wins should do
I don't think it matters much though. In my lifetime i don't recall lower than a 5 seed make the FF
February 20th, 2017 at 3:36 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 3:57 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 6:15 AM ^
Might be better to say you don't think they're playing well enough to make the final four or don't have what one of those lower seeds had to make it, but the lower than a five seed thing is one where you may need to sit in the corner and think about what you did.
February 20th, 2017 at 7:22 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 7:36 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 8:51 AM ^
Much more interesting to follow a competitive team who is trying to be the best
Michigan should not be in the position of hoping for a chance to be Cinderella
The coach is out competed in recruiting
The team is out competed in the paint
February 20th, 2017 at 12:01 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 9:05 AM ^
I think 20-21 wins will see them safely in. Ideally, they sweep @ Nebraska and @ Rutgers (avoiding a bad loss), and win either the Purdue game or @ Northwestern. That puts them at 20-11, 10-8 going into the BTT. 1 win and they're in. 2-3 wins and they'll end up in the 7-10 range.
February 20th, 2017 at 9:10 AM ^
I think we need to get to 22 wins makes us safe, 21 has us on the bubble, 20 has us out.
These totals include the big ten tournament.
February 20th, 2017 at 9:56 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 9:16 AM ^
Bubble is extremely soft this year. Two wins in the last 4 gets us in. There are other teams from other conferences that they have pegged into the tournament with losing conference records. .500 in the B1G will get us in this year. Just dont lose to Rutgers.
February 20th, 2017 at 9:22 AM ^
Think we're fine so long as we beat rutgers and nebraska -- maybe 1 BTT win, but probably don't even need that.
February 20th, 2017 at 9:31 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 9:35 AM ^
slay some Scarlet Knights then Boiler up this week in a big way. Then husk and pop some corn next week.
February 20th, 2017 at 10:09 AM ^
dont play we have a chance
February 20th, 2017 at 10:10 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
The answer is always the same.
Wins.
Doesn't matter how you get them, just get them. Everything else is just chaff.
February 20th, 2017 at 10:32 AM ^
They're on the bubble. Then they win 2 games against Sparty and Wisky, then they're positively in, get your ticket money together your going to "The Dance". Then they lose the next game on the road in heart breaking fashion to Minnesota. Michigan's back on the bubble, "what will take to get into The Dance"? The sky is falling "Michigan has one of the worst defense in all of college basketball" "It's gonna take a miracle" Were all gonna die. What gives?