S&P+ Five Factors Matchup: UM vs. MSU

Update Note: After pondering the comparative numbers, I've tweaked the formulas so that ratios are scaled in proportion to the National Average, such that if team A is matched against an exactly average team B, the resulting metric for the team A offense vs team B defense is the same as that of team A offense by itself. If team B is worse than average, team A metrics will look better. Conversely, if team B is better than average, team A metrics will look worse.

The impact of the change results in M now having a slight Rushing IsoPPP advantage over MSU instead of being a tie.

Here's the next installation of Bill Connelly's Five Factors metrics matchup between UM & MSU. It's a bit busy, but what you see are columns of raw metrics for both offenses and defenses. The Category of the given metric is given in the column at the left. To the right of the team offense and defense metrics are the National Averages for that category.  The last two columns are where the rubber meets the road...

The "M Offense vs. MSU Defense" column either averages (if inversely proportional) or takes the ratio (if not inversely related) between those two metrics to gauge the performance of the UM offense against the MSU defense. Likewise, the "MSU Offense vs. M Defense" averages or differences the other two metrics to gauge the performance of the Michigan State Offense. From there, the column with the greater aggregate number has the competitive advantage...EXCEPT, in the three categories with asterisks: "Stuff Rate", "SD Sack Rate" and "PD Sack Rate", which are contra-metrics that gauge the offense's ability to avoid the given categorical description.

Anyway, the numbers showing the advantage are in bold, and as such it appears the matchups tilt in M's favor in four of the Five Factors, including Turnovers. Breaking it down further, UM has the advantage in all but three two sub-categories, as follows:

1. Rushing IsoPPP (rushing explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful rushing plays). Neither team has an advantage here, as the result is draw. Also, since this metric considers successful plays only, it can be a bit deceiving. The net Rushing Success Rate for the MSU offense is about 30% lower than UM (this is about the same as what LOLRutgerz was by comparison). 
2. Passing IsoPPP (passing down explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful passing play). Same idea here as with 1. and 2. Look at the Passing Success Rate: M is 50% better than MSU.
3. SD IsoPPP (standard down explosiveness, measured as pts. per successful standard down). The same as against Colorado, PSU & Wisconsin, RU... Again, keep in mind that IsoPPP consider successful plays only, of which there are not a great number against the stout UM defense. Again, the success rate for UM is about 50% greater than MSU.

The IsoPPP advantages of Sparty in standard downs and passing plays will mean UM must be on the lookout defensively in order to contain explosive plays, particularly on Standard Downs. This is not necessarily a weakness so much as a condition of the UM Defense under Don Brown's aggressive schemes. It doesn't happen often - it just seems that UM's secondary will need to continue to be on its toes in blitz situations. Judging from the PFF numbers I've seen regarding QB ratings vs. Stribling and Lewis, however, QB's would do better by just throwing the ball out of bounds than anywhere near the U-M CB's.

In general, however, I would say this matchup looks as one might expect rolling into Piscataway East Lansing. Personally, I would love to see a complete annihilation of the Scarlet Knights Spartans, for reasons I will leave to you, dear reader, in the comments below...