freelion

October 17th, 2016 at 10:43 AM ^

I think our advanced stats are skewed by the historical Rutgers beatdown. That may smooth out a bit once we play Illinois and MSU.  I can't see being anything over 50% against OSU and it's probably more like 40%.

Joined: 10/03/2013

MGoPoints: 9049

Space Coyote

October 17th, 2016 at 11:17 AM ^

Particularly a rivalry game on the road. MSU has looked bad this year, the indictment you can say about them is that they've been bad on both sides of the LOS. They are unlikely to beat Michigan. But 97% is too high for any rivalry game. Even when MSU had crap coaches and Michigan was rolling, Michigan didn't win even close to 97% on the road.

Also, I really don't expect a super high scoring game. MSU's D still schematically sets up decently against Michigan. And MSU still has some playmakers on offense. I'd say the spread will end up around high teens or low 20s and I wouldn't touch it. I mean, I don't bet, so I never touch any of them, double for any game where there is an emotional investment, triple for any rivalry game where the unpredictable is often the only predictable thing that will happen. I fully expect Michigan to win, and win fairly comfortably, but likely not to this extent.

I am feeling better about the OSU game. I still think OSU is legit, and they made some excellent defensive adjustments in the 2nd half against Wisconsin after looking like a team that could be beat with a lot of things Michigan does on the regular. Being favored that much on the road is a bit of a question mark, but I do predict it will be one hell of a game.

I will add that I think S&P+ is currently overweighing how badly Michigan killed Rutgers. How bad a team destroys a high school team rarely has anything to do with how they will do against better teams. We'll see the numbers move closer to the midline as more information becomes available.

Joined: 06/18/2009

MGoPoints: 38962

Real and Spectacular

October 17th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^

I think people expecting a 40 pt blowout are fooling themselves, like they do every year. Dantonio has beat the spread every year vs Michigan. I expect we will be a 17-20 pt favorite and I'm sure people on here will neg me for having a differing opinion, but I'm expecting a 24-14 type game. We haven't beat them by more than a TD since 1997 and they've had some lousy teams.

Joined: 09/15/2016

MGoPoints: 5431

The Man Down T…

October 17th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^

I know it looks like Satan is collecting the MSU souls this year per the terms of the contract he made with MD but they still have some talent.  They can still put up a fight.  That being said, we put up a couple quick scores  and they will fold.  If we lead at halftime then by the start of the 3rd quarter starts they will start rioting.  The stands will look like the one of those brawls at Denny's at 2 am you see on YouTube.

Joined: 12/04/2008

MGoPoints: 20133

TESOE

October 17th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^

distorting S&P+...S&P+ doesn't account for 2nd string production like that.  Wisconsin for all it's differences is a better barometer.  Agree on 2nd half adjustments.  The game is going to be epic.

MSU is going to be a brawl.  I am very emotionally invested in MSU.  They can't be beaten by too much or too often.  This last decade needs to be buried along with the 50s and 60s.  Enough.

 

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 8538

DrunkOnHiggins

October 17th, 2016 at 11:39 AM ^

Lots of talk here about the MSU game. Some tend to think we should handle them with no problems. Others don't sound so sure. A month ago you could have grouped me in with the "don't sound so sure" category. But over the past four weeks and watching both teams, it's clear that it likely won't make much of a diffence what Dantonio does or how he prepares the team. I just don't see their offense doing enough to win the game.

Edit* - Just ventured to the banks of the Red Cedar and their fans desperately want the game to be at Noon so the audience is smaller! LOL

Joined: 06/16/2011

MGoPoints: 7370

Sten Carlson

October 17th, 2016 at 11:41 AM ^

I get what everyone is saying about MSU's season being made and the whole chip on the shoulder thing MD has going on up there. But, as we all sort of knew would happen, that shtick is wearing exceedingly thin. When we were down MD could stoke the pride flames by saying, "they didn't want you, and look at how poorly they're performing ..." and the kids are it up like candy. Now, however, no matter what MD says, the kids know that they weren't wanted at Michigan because we've moved on to a higher level in all aspects of the program. Further, I watch MSU most weeks and what I see is a team with a very fragile psyche, and ironically, it seems to be coming from MD. Is reactions to adversity seem to be the polar opposite of what we saw for in the recent past. I think his deep seeded awareness that Harbaugh has put him out of buisness is showing through. What once was a effective chip on the shoulder is now morphing back into the inferiority complex, and his the team has lost all confidence. NW just flat out pummeled them, and but for two flukey deep pass TD's, the score would have been even more lopsided. I agree that 97% is high, but all I see MD attempt to hype his team doing is giving a bigger advantage to Michigan when MSU gets a few personal fouls early. Punch these guys in the mouth and they will crumple, no doubt about it!

Joined: 11/16/2009

MGoPoints: -56

RadioMuse

October 17th, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^

...but... I think 3+ touchdown win in EL is imminent. McDowell will make some plays, but if you keep him bottled up (or run away from him) we'll be able to run the ball, control the tempo, and set up deep play-action against a suspect secondary left on an island. Given our defensive acumen and State's offensive woes there's no reason for the game plan to not be simple and conservative. The staff should focus on installing varied snap counts, and some screens and draws to blow up the blitzes they'll throw at us. We'll go into halftime up 10+ and a score on 2 of our first 3 possessions in the 3rd whole the defense locks down will end it for Sparty. Ohio... The Buckeyes look mortal and would've lost had they missed 3 FGs (not that it's good to miss those). Michigan's offensive brain trust will find ways to move the ball and get points on the board. The D-line MUST stay healthy, but Don's Dude crew should be able to limit the Ohio run game enough to force JT to air it out into an elite secondary that will get their share of breakups and at least one pick. That should be enough to win... but the game is played on the field and anything over a 55% shot feels like too much in Columbus.

Joined: 03/20/2012

MGoPoints: 311

Soulfire21

October 17th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

S&P+ has us at 90%+ chance to win every game except Ohio State, which now projects 61% chance of victory. Incredible.

One thing that stuck out to me is our special teams are ranked 107th. I was under the impression they were doing rather well, but I also don't know exactly what goes into that formula.

Joined: 03/18/2010

MGoPoints: 22717

lhglrkwg

October 17th, 2016 at 12:18 PM ^

I'm not sure how MSU is going to get double digit points on offense. If this was any other Big Ten team that looked like this, I'd be wondering whether it would be 30-0 or 40-0 at halftime. Rivalry game yeah yeah, but we should obliterate them

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 88113

Perkis-Size Me

October 17th, 2016 at 1:43 PM ^

You're right. On paper, and judging by tangible results, we SHOULD be able to hold our own on the lines with our OL vs. their DL, and then we SHOULD be able to completely disembowl them with our DL vs. their OL. 

But I'm still expecting a close game. 

Sure, part of it is from the PTSD of having watched them make us their personal chew-toy almost every year for the last eight years. And I know those games have no bearing on this year. Maybe I'm just trying to guard myself from being disappointed if we don't win by 40. But the main part of it is that Dantonio always gets his team to play at its highest possible level when it comes to this game. He's going to shove that disrespekt card down his team's throat all week next week. 

This is their Super Bowl, my friend. And they're going to play like it too. Few opponents are more dangerous than opponents who have nothing to lose. You're right: on tangible results, we should kill them. But this game has a huge intangible aspect to it too. 

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 106349

pug150

October 17th, 2016 at 12:28 PM ^

Here is the box score...note that UM had 154 yards in kickoff/punt returns, which gave them a shorter field. Thus, the lower offensive yardage...seems fairly equal to me. 1ST DOWNS 20 10 Rushing 3 3 Passing 13 6 Penalty 4 1 3RD DOWN CONV 3-12 4-15 4TH DOWN CONV 0-4 0-1 PUNTS - AVG 5-37.2 7-44.6 RETURN YARDS 54 154 Punts - Returns 2-4 3-48 Kickoffs - Returns 2-50 4-106 Int - Returns 0-0 0-0 PENALTIES - YARDS 5-44 8-70 FUMBLES - LOST 0-0 2-0 TOTAL NET YARDS 386 230 Total Plays 72 58 Average Gain 5.4 4 NET YARDS RUSHING 58 62 Rushes 33 33 Rushes - Avg 1.8 1.9 NET YARDS PASSING 328 168 Comp. - Att. 18-39 15-25 Yards Per Pass 7.8 6 Sacked - Yards Lost 3-0 3-0 Interceptions Thrown 0 0 TOUCHDOWNS 4 2 Rushing Touchdowns 2 2 Passing Touchdowns 1 0 Other 1 0 EXTRA POINTS 3-3 2-2 Kicking 3-3 2-2 FIELD GOALS 0-0 3-3 SAFETIES 0 0

Joined: 10/04/2011

MGoPoints: 77

Stylin and Profilin

October 17th, 2016 at 3:30 PM ^

If Michigan is struggling offensively, you're going to see a healthy dose of Peppers at Wild Cat QB trying to blow the game wide open. If he breaks off a few big plays and gives Speight a short field to punch it in, I think you'll see the wheels fall off on Sparty. The longer MSU is in the game, the more confidence (and possibly momentum) can build.

Joined: 09/07/2016

MGoPoints: 45

UMForLife

October 17th, 2016 at 5:45 PM ^

Wow. What a thread. Quite a few MSU supporters or people who freak out about MSU because of the last few years. Any team can be beat. Ole Miss beat Bama a few times. Does not mean we should bet against Bama when they play Ole Miss. I expect M to stomp MSU. This team is way better than last year's team and MSU is way worse than last year. No comparison.

Joined: 11/04/2013

MGoPoints: 63391