All Right, Fine, Let's Talk About That Comment Count

Brian

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[Patrick Barron]

You said this would be a good basketball team.

What are YOU doing here, bolded alter-ego?

I'm bothering you. You said this would, and I fake quote, "not be a festering trash-heap."

I didn't say that but I did imply it. This was not correct, in a general sense. I mean, they did beat Texas and NC State. We may be overreacting here. But a top 25 team this ain't.

My feelings are bad now because you. Hate you.

Okay. Do you still want to talk about this, or was that sufficient for your purposes?

We can talk about it. What is going on, man?

Well…

Center is killing Michigan on offense, too

We are taking it as read that the center position is a disaster on defense. Any large, slightly peevish man is spend games against Michigan flexing so much he looks like he's in a bodybuilding competition.

But wait, there's more: Michigan absolutely does not trust their centers to run the pick and roll and it's killing their offense. Michigan got one roll dunk from Ricky Doyle after a second-half timeout, and other than that bupkis. Moritz Wagner got a layup blocked when he could have dunked the ball early and then Michigan didn't try it again until Beilein probably yelled at them about it.

When the pick and roll isn't working Michigan gets stuck on the outside all day because they don't have dribble penetrators, and the ensuing barrage of bad threes in the first half is the result.

This is a big disappointment since Ricky Doyle was very promising as a pick and roll finisher last year, when he hit 77% at the rim. This year he's down to 65% and, more importantly, he's got an astronomical 32 TO rate—a third of the time he uses an offensive possession it's to thunk the ball to the other team. Last year he was at 12. Maybe he got sweatier?

Wagner's shown some promise here—he used that super-quick layup to get buckets against NC State's enormous shot-blockers. But after that initial failure Michigan didn't go back to him.

Perimeter defense is abominable

I kind of expect it from Duncan Robinson. Ace made a good point on twitter: he is better as a bench player because his minutes generally come when the opponent has substituted as well, which helps Michigan hide him on D. Also, Robinson is shooting 60% from 3 on a burgeoning significant 50 attempts.

But that's a problem and then Dawkins is barely better against the starters. LeVert is better this year but still gambles a lot, and it's not paying off much. Once that happens and rotation starts bad things result.

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[Barron]

Possible solutions on the perimeter can't shoot

Michigan needs four guys who are reasonable shooters from three on the court to run this offense. Kam Chatman, who did a nice job on D against NC State, is 0/8. MAAR is 2/11. That contributes to the offense bogging down.

This goes double when neither guy really facilitates anyone else's offense. MAAR has an early-Irvin-esque assist rate, which is frustrating because he's able to get to the basket better than anyone else on the team. He shoots decently inside the arc; Michigan needs him to set some other guys up to facilitate the offense.

Zak Irvin is broken

Shooting 20% from three, getting killed on the boards, bleah. He has seemingly not recovered to get in the flow of the game from his back injury, and that's a major downer. Hopefully these upcoming games give him an opportunity to shoot himself hot.

LeVert is not quite an alpha dog

Caris LeVert is very good at basketball, and statistically he's one of the best players in the country. I just think that sometimes, in the wrong matchup, you can shut him down. His ability to get into the lane is so-so, so the right defender can fend him off and then he has a game like he did against SMU. That did not happen to Trey Burke or Nik Stauskas. Maybe this is a one-off bad game—hopefully nothing is quite as bad as that. I think Caris is a very very good basketball player who might be better as a second banana.

Well…

I think our goals have reset to "make the tournament," which kind of sucks, but Michigan should be able to do that. A weak Big Ten gives you some pause but there's going to be a game or three against a tough opponent in which Duncan Robinson goes 11/10 from three, and that should  be enough.

Comments

Tuebor

December 10th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^

And they were forced to do that because McGary was an NBA talent. 

 

John Beilein is like every other decent College Coach.  They need NBA talent to take it to the next level.  Our best runs came when we could put at least 3 NBA players on the floor together.  Who on the current team is a definite NBA player? 

Blueroller

December 9th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^

Jon Horford transferring was a symptom of a problem that seems to be affecting recruiting: this offense is perceived as deemphasizing big guys. An elite center is going to want an offense that posts him up, not limits him to pick and roll duty. Big bruisers in general will prefer an offense like MSU that emphasizes physical play and pounding the boards. I hope I'm wrong about this, as the NBA seems to be heading more the direction of the Michigan offense. But it's hard to believe there's nothing to this.

alum96

December 9th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^

Yeah forget elite center.   Get an athletic jumping jack. Udoh was the 220th ranked guy out of HS or something like that.  Thats what this team needs - a guy who jumps out of the gym and affects shots and gets rebounds.  I dont care if his range is 3 feet and his FT% is 10%.  Just cleaning up all the misses by our long range shooters gets a guy like that 6-7 pts a nite.

The complete bust that is Kam Chatman also ruined the prospects at 4 at this point.  Back to undersized guys or guys who cant play defense (Duncan). 

doggdetroit

December 9th, 2015 at 5:39 PM ^

The problem is that athletic centers, even if they aren't elite, don't appear to want to play for Beilein because they will be a last resort option on offense. I have to assume Beilein has tried to recruit them. If it's apparent to us it's probably apparent to him. That's why Horford (athletic, but not elite) transferred. He had NBA dreams and they weren't going to be realized at Michigan. He signed McGary but McGary was willing to play without the ball. Very rare to find that type of talent.

Lanknows

December 9th, 2015 at 5:41 PM ^

Beilein barely recruited Ypsilanti's Jaylen Johnson before he ended up at Lousiville.  Recruited him late a bit but after other options fell through.  Beilein values skill over other attributes and recruits accordingly.

robpollard

December 10th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^

I mostly agree with your larger point about who Beilein targets, but Jaylen Johnson is currently, as a sophomore, averaging 4.9 pts, 3.9 boards, and 0.1 blocks (and against real opponents, like MSU he did almost nothing -- 2pt and 1 board).

Perhaps Johnson will mature into something, but as of right now, we'd be complaining about him too, if he were at U of M.

Lanknows

December 10th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^

Up to debate if Johnson would be better than Doyle or Wilson at this point, but at least he'd offer a different look.  wilson donnal and wagner are all pretty much the same guy defensivly and Doyle's not exactly making anybody hesitate when they come inside either.

The OP said Beilein tries to recruit athletes, but beyond taking a shot at elite guys (like Swanigan and Zimmerman) I disagree. Beilein's default targets tend to be guys that can shoot but need a lot of development on the defensive end (e.g., Smotrycz, Donnal, Bielfeldt, Wilson).  Doyle was more in the Morgan mold (ground-bound non-shooter) but not as athletic and more skilled offensively.  Horford and Wilson (and now Wagner) were skinny projects that take years, even in a best case scenario to be viable defensively at center.

I guess I'd just like to see guys who are more capable of helping out quickly on defense/boards. I'd like to see a Spike Albrecht-version of a center (limited upside, immediate help, but on defense instead of offense). Beilein seems a little too focused on recruits' potential (offensively especially) than finding role players who can help rebound and defend right away. 

Morgan couldn't really do anything on offense other than set screens and roll to the basket.  We need more of that!  Because Morgan knew it and so didn't need to take shots.  He played his role. We don't need more Pittsnogle pipe-dreams or Smotrycz/Sims/Wagner-tweeners who can't defend the 5 but aren't really skilled enough for the 4 either.

Davis and Teske do seem like a step in the right direction, so I think Beilein is learning from his mistakes.  I hope so anyway.

Lanknows

December 9th, 2015 at 6:54 PM ^

not happening anytime in the next 2 seasons.  Michigan can't find ONE competant center right now.  If you think Davis and Teske are going to come in as freshman and immediately bump aside Wagner you're dreaming.

MAYBE in the 2017-18 season but that's so far off...

Beilein's never going to run a twin-towers lineup.  He didn't even when he had McGary.

umchicago

December 9th, 2015 at 7:18 PM ^

you failed to mention a junior doyle.  also, mcgary was not a good shooter, especially beyond the arc; no way he or morgan play the 4 in a JB offense.  if wagner can consistenly knock down 3s, you will see him at the 4.

next year, i could easily see the center play as doyle-20, wagner-10, teske-10 with another 10 for wagner at the 4, IF he can shoot 3s.  davis will redshirt, likely.

Lanknows

December 10th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^

Asking Wagner to play two positions, when he barely understands one is slightly insane. Unless you get a huge leap from Wilson there's not enough guys for C. I think if anyone's moving to 4, it would be Wilson first.

Playing the 4 is not just about shooting 3s.  As Beilein has said, it's about who you can guard.  Wagner's not capable of guarding the athletic 4's he would be facing.  He's also not really versatile enough offensively at this point to be playing on the wing (at 4), even if he can shoot.  The 5's job is simpler in many ways on offense.

If you are a 3/4 in Beilein's system you either have to be a knock-down shooter to create spacing, or you have to be able to drive and/or a major finisher (a la Robinson).  Wagner doesn't have that package. Neither does Wilson.  Both are staying at 5 until there's a group of centers to push them outside.

Otherwise you are talking about taking minutes away from guys like Robinson and Irvin and Dawkins in order to play Wagner at a position he's not familiar at.

 

umchicago

December 9th, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^

that's what i want out of my corps of bigs.  right now we have a bunch of unathletic/weak bigs.  wilson may be somewhat athletic but he is still a twig.  so is wagner. donnal is weak and short. doyle, i still have some hope for but he can't elevate.  teske will come in twig-like.  davis will come in doyle-like.

none of these guys will likely ever play good D.

give me one guy thats 6'9" or better that has some strength and can play above the rim.  i don't care if he has any offensive skills.  at least that would give JB some options on D when we face teams with good centers.

UMgradMSUdad

December 9th, 2015 at 5:53 PM ^

Horford's family was in his ear that he was an NBA player, and yes there was their presumption that in a system like Florida's his natural talent would be better displayed. Of course he and his family were wrong.  He's not his brother and doesn't have NBA talent.  The only thing his move did was screw Michigan and provide Florida with an additional bench player.

bronxblue

December 9th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^

Sounds about right. Top 16 seed always seemed ambitious for a perimeter oriented team. I will say, though, that it's been 9 games. my assumption is this won't continue all year. Hell, if they played like they did to end last season they would be fine.

HollywoodHokeHogan

December 9th, 2015 at 5:01 PM ^

The problems on defense aren't just issues with athleticism. They are terrible with weak side help, with knowing when to trap in the 131, with finding a man in transition, and they largely refuse to box out. That's all mental and it's a bit embarrassing. They are headed for a 150+ adjusted d efficiency rating at this pace.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Lanknows

December 9th, 2015 at 5:07 PM ^

Great analysis overall and I agree with all the conclusions EXCEPT the one about Caris not being an Alpha. Consider the context.

  • Flanking Trey:  Hardaway (NBA), Stuaskas (NBA), Robinson (NBA), McGary (NBA)
  • Flanking Nik:  Walton (sub-NBA 4-star), LeVert (NBA soon), Robinson (NBA), Morgan (5th year Senior)
  • Flanking Caris:  MAAR (2-star soph), Dawkins (2-star soph), Irvin (sub NBA 4-star), Doyle (3-star soph)

Those are DRAMATIC differences that allow opposing defenses to put way more attention on Caris than Nik or even Trey ever saw. That goes a long way in explaining why Caris doesn't produce like an elite player against every good team.

And really, it's just SMU that shut him down.  Keith Frazier is viewed by some NBA people as a NBA-caliber prospect in large part because of his defensive length and athleticism. Frazier's shut down Caris twice now.  It's probably just a bad matchup - Nik and Trey had some too.

 

Stringer Bell

December 9th, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^

Trey did help lead a Big Ten winning team flanked by Novak, Douglass, sophomore Hardaway (who was bad), and Morgan before he really burst onto the scene.  Caris isn't an alpha dog like Trey was, but then again very few are.

Lanknows

December 9th, 2015 at 5:27 PM ^

Trey '12 had:  Novak (senior), Douglass (senior), Hardaway (NBA), Morgan (junior)

The supporting cast is still markedly better when you factor in experience.

But let's be honest that Trey '11 didn't play nearly as well as Trey'12 did.  Nor for that matter was he as good as Caris is now.

Trey '12 ORtg: 107.4

Trey '13 ORtg: 123.4

Caris '16 ORtg:  126.8

Caris will regress of course as we get through Big Ten play and the cupcakes disappear. He's not going to produce at NPOY levels with this team.

As for your Hardaway slam.  Your assertion that Hardaway was bad is...not true.  He wasn't as good as his freshman or junior year, but he was still very good. His 3% cratered but his 2% went way up, he drew a ton of FTs, etc.  Offensively he was still a key piece.  He had a pretty typical (for him) effective year and this is an NBA player we are talking about... Michigan just got a lot more efficient the following year by dropping Hardaway's usage, upping Trey's responsibilities, and deferring to the freshman in general (Stauskas, LeVert, Robinson, McGary).  That should be a credit to Hardaway's unselfishness, not a slam on his role or production in '12.

Lanknows

December 9th, 2015 at 5:39 PM ^

There's a big difference between senior Novak/Douglass and sophomore MAAR/Dawkins -- just as there was a big difference between senior Novak/Douglass and sophomore Novak/Douglass.

funkywolve

December 9th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^

Didn't Stauskas get completely taken out of the game against Duke, his sophomore year?

My memory is fuzzy but I could swear there was a game where he was just about erased from the offensive end early in the year.

Lanknows

December 9th, 2015 at 6:34 PM ^

Stauaksas

Nik was 0-2, scoring 4 points, in 34 minutes against Duke. 3 TOs/4 assists.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2013-12-03-duke.html

Nike was 1-6, scoring 6 points in 35 minutes against Indiana. 2 TOs/1 assist

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2014-02-02-indiana.html

Burke

Against SDSU (Nate Wolters) Trey scored only 6 points while shooting 2 of 12.  He did have 7 assists to 2 TOs and contributed to locking down Wolters - Michigan won the game.

Trey against OSU (Aaron Craft) shot 4 of 13 with 4 TOs to 4 assists.  He did manage 15 points thanks to FTs, but UM lost their first game of the year.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2013-01-13-ohio-state.html

(As a freshman) Shot 1-11 with 4 assists to 8 turnovers in a conference tournament loss to Aaron Craft and OSU.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2012-03-10-michigan.html

People forget that there was a time where Craft was viewed as cryptonite to Trey Burke, until really Trey's last game against OSU.

Caris has rarely played as poorly as he has against SMU's Frazier and he wont get as many cracks at him as Trey got against Craft.

 

 

 

 

 

Maizen

December 9th, 2015 at 5:11 PM ^

The problems rebounding the ball and playing defense aren't going to get fixed unless Mitch Mcgary is walking thru that door. It's been 9 years of this style of basketball and Michigan doesn't have a historically efficient offense to mask their defensive problems anymore.

Beilein's mid major recruiting was going to come back to bite him at some point and it appears we are at that point. If he doesn't make the NCAA tournament this year he will have missed it more times than he has made it, and in year 9 that is simply unnacpetable. Either he needs to re-adjust his philosophy both in recruiting and on the court, or maybe it is time he steps aside.

The man has raised 3 banners here and I believe he deserves the benefit of the doubt, so I'm going to withold judgement on this team and JB until the season ends. But with the facilities and the resources he has at his disposal this program is way to up and down fo my liking. There is no consistency and I don't think being a tournament team every year is too much to ask. Yes I realize hoops recruiting is a shady business, but so is football and at a school like Michigan it shouldn't be too hard to field a top 25 team every year. It's like people forgot about how good Michigan used to be in the 70's, 80's, and 90's.

I couldn't believe we let a guy dunk the ball 10 freaking times last night. It's one thing to get beat but it's entirely another to get punked. And lately that's been happening way too much.

Lanknows

December 9th, 2015 at 5:17 PM ^

Both Morgan and Horford were very good at rebounding (especially Horford) and good defensively by their 4th year.  Bielfeldt, by last year, was at least playable. It took them that many years to get there, though, and it could take Doyle that long too.  Experience and player development can cure the problem...but that's the position you put yourself in when you, as you put it nicely, acheive "mid major recruiting".

Beilein can work some magic with guards and wings but we haven't seen it up front.  Needs to recruit better up front or at least start dumping a lot more scholarships towards the front line.  Davis and Teske are a good start.  Beilein needs to take a big in every class though.

 

Lanknows

December 9th, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^

That's how it's going to be when you recruit mid-major caliber players.  They might be good eventually but asking them to be anything other than a backup immediately and you're going to struggle badly.

AlwaysBlue

December 9th, 2015 at 5:57 PM ^

Irvin were Donnal 4* or better (Donnal was a 3* by some). Caris is considered a first round pick. Wagner, most people thought, would have been a 4* if ranked. This team has a different problem it seems. They look disorganized which is partly due to not having Walton or Spike. The defense was horrible last night but the offense was horrendous too. I think Beilein will fix that problem...I don't know that he can fix Doyle though.

Lanknows

December 9th, 2015 at 6:45 PM ^

Beilein's recruiting at guard and wing is bullet-proof, whether he grabs 5* or 2*.  But that's not the case up front where, it's no coincidence, Michigan had the most success with a 5* F (Robinson) and 5* C (McGary) and 5th year C (Morgan).

Donnal was a 4* guy, but not really a center.  He was in the Smotrycz mold but got shoe-horned into center.

Beilein's big man recruiting has been pretty poor other than McGary.  Morgan and Horford and even Bielfeldt developed after a while.  Cronin and (probably) Donnal did not.  The problem (IMO) comes with recruiting too many shorter/thinner finesse players (a la Smotrycz, Wagner, Donnal). Wilson probably fits the same mold too.  These guys can be good players but you have to wait a long time to develop them and you will never have answers for physically dominant bigs.  Smotrycz and Horford both left, as did Udoh, so that's another telling sign that something about the front court recruiting is problematic.

Doyle will get better, but it's still disappointing that he isn't significantly better than last year.

snarling wolverine

December 9th, 2015 at 8:38 PM ^

Jordan Morgan started, and actually put up his best career numbers, as a redshirt freshman. He really wasn't quite the late bloomer people make him out to be. He just wasn't really appreciated by our fanbase until his senior year.

jmblue

December 10th, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^

Although his rebounding numbers also dropped after that year.  Morgan's stats:

 

 

2010-11      9.2  ppg, 6.5 rpg, 62.7% FG

2011-12      7.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg,  61.9% FG

2012-13      4.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg,  57.7% FG

2013-14      6.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg,  70.0% FG

He did make excellent strides as a positional defender, though he was never bad in that area (he did a great job on OSU's Sullinger in our win over them his soph year).  He was a pretty solid player throughout his career.  His freshman year may have caused some fans to expect too much from him later on, but by his senior year we accepted him for what he was.

 

 

doggdetroit

December 9th, 2015 at 5:31 PM ^

If Beilein misses the tournament this year, it will be 4 times that he's missed it. He will have made it 5 times. 

Still, your overall point stands. I made this same point last night on the thread about Beilein that got deleted. With its resources, there is no reason why Michigan should not have a consistent top 25 and tournament team. Michigan should not be making the tournament 5 out of 9 years. Realistically, it should be in the tournament 8 out of 9 years. I will factor in a down season since very few programs make it every single year. (Currently, only Kansas, Duke, MSU, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Louisville have made 9 or more consecutive appearances. Even Kentucky missed it a few years ago). Under Beilein the program seems to be hit or miss.

mgobluth

December 9th, 2015 at 5:11 PM ^

Yes we looked horrible last night. But-

1) Caris isn't missing 13 shots again like he did - he's too good a player to see that happening again. He also missed a bunch a free throws, and hes been a much better shooter than that from the line

2) Walton won't be out all year - yes there are lingering concerns with reinjuring his ankle but at this point 50% of Walton is better than 75% of MAAR on both ends of the floor

3) As Brian pointed out, the Big Ten isn't as good as the previous couple of years. Beilein's teams generally get better as conference play goes on, and their schedule is manageable (no trips to East Lansing, Iowa City, or Bloomington) so there's hope they'll be moderately successful in conference play.

4) Our three losses were to top-25 Kenpom teams - we haven't yet lost to anyone like NJIT or Eastern last year [finds a piece of wood to knock several times]

The rebounding thing worries me the most, but Beilein's first couple of NCAA Tournament teams at U-M were all pretty bad rebounding teams IIRC. Let's at least wait til the new year before we all abandon ship on this team, there's still hope.

GO BLUE 

Naked Bootlegger

December 9th, 2015 at 5:13 PM ^

Hype admission:

I expected this team to contend for a B1G title, based mostly on the promise of a hyper-efficient offense fueled by a slew of great shooters.   I knew our defense, especially interior defense, would be mediocre at best, but those warts can be hidden by offensive efficiency and three point proficiency.   This scenario could still happen - remember the sluggish start to our last B1G title season?  But, man.  I was counting on a continued Aubrey Dawkins upward trajectory, the Zak Irvin creator/3 point wrecking machine from late last year, and a solid Ricky Doyle on the blocks.   Also a healthy Walton (our best rebounder!).   Irvin's early struggles can be excused as injury hangovers.   We really need Dawkins and Doyle - or Wagner to completely wrest control of the center position - to emerge from the early season funkiness.    There's time to correct mistakes.   But I am very disappointed by the results so far.   Heck, a 5 point road loss to SMU isn't horrible.  A complete and utter beatdown at SMU is horrible.

Maizen

December 9th, 2015 at 5:31 PM ^

I do remember our start in 2014. We lost very competitive close games to Iowa State, Arizona, and Duke, all of which were top 10 teams.

Meanwhile this team has gotten run of out the gym vs Xavier, SMU, and UConn. 

I don't get why people keep clinging to the start of the 2014 season as if it has any relevance to the shit show we are watching right now.