2015 Coaching Changes - Mid-Season Report
In light of the five FBS coaching changes that have already occurred, I thought I would take this opportunity to go over the attractiveness of each job, a primary candidate for each job, and two secondary candidates for each job. (Disclaimer: The candidates are merely my opinion, not anything official whatsoever, and I limited the coaching candidates to the college ranks). I also took the liberty of predicting which other FBS jobs could be open by the end of 2015. In order to compile this diary, I took some information from coachingsearch.com. Chris Vannini there does an excellent job of posting coaching updates from across all levels of football. If you Twitter, follow @coachingsearch.
Legend for attractiveness of each job:
Hot - One of the top 10-12 jobs in college football, a destination job, high pressure to win
Solid - Still a place you can win at, viewed as destination by at least some, still moderate/high pressure to win
Decent - Middle of the road, not bad, but nothing to get excited about. Could move on if Solid or Hot job opens up.
Fair - Uphill battle. High/mid Group of 5/low Power 5 type job. Ambitious coaches will usually leave this type of job if they can.
Airport - Won't be here for long either way. Win somewhat and you're off in 2-3 seasons, lose big and you're off in 2-3 seasons.
Open Jobs:
Illinois: Attraction - Decent Job. Illinois on the face has the look of a Solid job, but the fact is there is merely a light recruiting base in the state and the surrounding area; there is not enough competitive talent in the state. The head man will have to raid states like Ohio to round out the roster. There is also little tradition at Illinois. Guys have shown that you can achieve BCS/New Year's 6 success at Illinois as recently as the early 00s and that one run under Zook, so there is hope. For what it's worth it is the first choice in the state, and it's in the unspectacular B1G West.
Primary Candidate: Dino Babers, Bowling Green Head Coach. Babers has history coaching in the state, and took over a bad Eastern Illinois team and turned them into FCS Playoff participants just two seasons later. His offense is modeled after Baylor's Art Briles and has torched many FBS defenses already. This is a hire that would inject some excitment in a primarily stale and tired fan base in addition to just being a smart hire overall. Babers would be 55 at the start of the 2016 season.
Secondary candidate 1: Justin Fuente, Memphis Head Coach
Secondary candidate 2: Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky Head Coach
Maryland: Attraction - Decent Job. Maryland is a similar type job to Illinois, with a slightly better recruiting base in the DC metro area. An ambitious/smart head coach would dive into the Norfolk/VA Beach area, as well. Maryland has also made a BCS/NY6 appearance fairly recently, so there is also hope here; however, the athletic department at Maryland is cash-strapped after numerous mishaps, hence their betrayal of forever home ACC for the moneybags of the Big Ten. Little tradition at Maryland. The new guy will also be competing with Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State on a yearly, and Michigan State will be a force as long as Dantonio is there.
Primary Candidate: Justin Fuente, Memphis Head Coach. Fuente took over a dumpster fire at Memphis and has turned it into an SEC-whippin' machine. He would have to do the same at Maryland, but there's potential to do at Maryland what he's done at Memphis. Fuente will be only 40 at the start of the 2016 season.
Secondary candidate 1: Dino Babers, Bowling Green Head Coach
Secondary candidate 2: Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky Head Coach
South Carolina: Attraction - Fair Job. This is an uphill battle. Let's go over some national-championship winning coaches that have, for the most part, failed at South Carolina. Paul Dietzel (LSU), Lou Holtz (Notre Dame), and Steve Spurrier (Florida). Spurrier won the SEC East a grand total of once at South Carolina. Holtz never did. The state of South Carolina does not really have enough competitive talent for two FBS programs, let alone one, and over the past 15-20 years most of the best talent that is in the state is going to Clemson. Clemson has more of a winning history and tradition, albeit a shorter history. The Gamecocks are the second on the block in a weak recruiting state, make no mistake.
Primary Candidate: Tom Herman, Houston Head Coach. Herman would be a great hire for South Carolina. The only question would be is if he would be willing to take on another challenge at South Carolina or really look to build up the Houston program (maybe toward even a Big XII invite?). Regardless, in my opinion this is the guy South Carolina should target. Ohio State clearly misses Herman on the offensive side of the ball and Herman has developed a reputation for being a ravenous recruiter and is doing that at Houston. The South Carolina job requires a sleepless recruiting effort. Make it happen, Cocky. Herman would only be 41 at the start of the 2016 season.
Secondary candidate 1: Justin Fuente, Memphis Head Coach
Secondary candidate 2: Joe Moglia, Coastal Carolina Head Coach
Southern Cal: Attraction - Hot Job. Location, winning tradition, self-sustaining, private institution, can recruit via bus or bicycle in the southern California region. Don't feel I need to add much else.
Primary Candidate: Jimbo Fisher, Florida State Head Coach. Predicting the next head coach for a program like Southern Cal is pretty fun. You can make a case for almost any semi-successful head coach in the country, as a program like Southern Cal can get anyone they want. Jimbo Fisher has already done all he can do at Florida State, and with perhaps the most lackadaisical undefeated regular season in history in 2014 followed up by a face plant against Oregon in the semi-final and a similar start in 2015, Fisher may be ready for a new challenge. Fisher has the rock star appeal that would fit in well at Southern Cal and, for better or worse, Fisher's FSU has been in the news almost constantly since he's been there. The man can recruit, motivate, and win on game day, which is what Southern Cal needs most right now. In addition, and this would be just as much a change for personal reasons, Fisher just this summer went through a divorce, after his wife allegedly had an affair with one of his ex-players. So Southern Cal would theoretically allow him to get away and get a new start. Fisher would be 50 at the start of the 2016 season.
Secondary candidate 1: Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M Head Coach
Secondary candidate 2: James Franklin, Penn State Head Coach
North Texas: Attraction - Airport. This change went under the radar, and rightfully so. North Texas canned former Iowa State head coach Dan McCarney after UNT lost 66-7 to homecoming opponent Portland State. Most will remember Mean Joe Greene as a famous alumnus of North Texas. North Texas has gone through many problems in its history, notably being "demoted" to 1-AA in the late 70s by the NCAA. However, through major donor support, the program re-entered 1-A in 1995 (wikipedia). For what it's worth, UNT is in the state of Texas (obviously) and the institution just opened up a brand new on-campus Apogee Stadium, and has seemingly shown willingness to invest in the program and facilities. However, the next head man here will likely have to come from the FCS ranks and view it as a step up. AD Rick Villarreal stated that he would like the next hire to be "offensive minded" (coachingsearch.com).
Primary Candidate: Matt Viator, McNeese State Head Coach (74-32 in 9+ seasons, 4 FCS Playoff berths, age 52) (wikipedia)
Secondary candidate 1: KC Keeler, Sam Houston State Head Coach (189-81-1 overall record, 3 FCS Championships with Delaware, 5 Division III Championships with Rowan, age 56) (wikipedia)
Secondary candidate 2: Greg Schiano, available (still only 49, but at this point has to take what he can get)
*Likely* Open Jobs:
Virginia
Central Florida (O'Leary iffy on pretty much everything right now)
Tulane
Iowa State
Purdue
Texas-San Antonio (although coachingsearch.com says no)
Hawaii
I'll wait until after the 2015 season is over to see how these shake out. I may do a second follow-up post after the season with more commentary on the open jobs.
October 20th, 2015 at 4:16 PM ^
to South Carolina (or pretty much anywhere). He's done a good job with a bad SMU program and should be a candidate at a lot of places.
I don't see Jimbo Fisher going to USC, though. He's got a good deal going at FSU with no reason to move. I'm not sure who they would be able to get with Pat Haden himself on thin ice. That will be an interesting one to watch.
October 20th, 2015 at 4:19 PM ^
But he's been at SMU for twenty minutes, and the results aren't there, yet. They are much better, yes, but I as well as I'm sure the rest of college football would like to see some results, first.
October 20th, 2015 at 4:39 PM ^
"But they're a really good 1-5!" doesn't carry a lot of weight. He's got them competitive, anyway, which is a huge step up from last year.
Lot of noise about him, though, based on his years as Clemson OC. It remains to be seen whether it's just noise or if there's anything to it.
October 20th, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^
A former Clemson OC would have to have a FAR better resume in order to be considered for the South Carolina job.
October 22nd, 2015 at 9:41 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^
Has Cubit indicated he is not wanting the Illinois job? He has them at 4-2 with one of those losses being west frontrunner Iowa (who may likely go 12-0).
October 20th, 2015 at 4:22 PM ^
I agree he has done an admirable job there considering the circumstances, but I'm sure Illinois is going to let this thing play out and see where they are on December 6. The thing about Cubit is he's past 60 years of age I'm pretty sure. If Illinois either somehow makes it to Indy or barely misses out, and they end up winning 9 games or so, they may reward him with the job, but in my opinion that's what it would take.
October 20th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^
Ken Niumatalolo from Navy would be a decent choice for Maryland. He's already in the local area, is a good coach, has a unique system that can be used to carve out an advantage and the Georgia Tech experience has proven you can move from an academy to a bigger job and be fairly successful.
October 20th, 2015 at 4:56 PM ^
I didn't think about that. I'm certainly not against it or don't think it would be the worst idea, but it takes a ballsy AD to hire someone that unconventional. Then again we are talking about Maryland.
October 20th, 2015 at 9:10 PM ^
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October 21st, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^
But with games against FSU, UVA (road), VT, Miami (road), and Georgia yet to be played, the Jackets could be looking at a 2-10 season. Yikes.
October 21st, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
I think he's earned himself enough goodwill to endure one bad season like this(bad as it may be), but there will definitely be a hotseat. The Ga. Tech. grads I know are all frustrated but not particularly stabby and I think are mostly realistic about what to expect from the program.
October 22nd, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^
For us at GT (yes us, alumnus speaking here) the margin for error is razor thin. Look at our schedule last season compared to this season. We traded GA Southern at home (who we needed a borderline call and a last second TD to beat, anyway!) for Notre Dame on the road, and at NC State from the Atlantic became versus Florida State from the Atlantic. We permanently get Clemson from the Atlantic, and that was on the road this year. We also make trips to Miami, where we haven't won since 2007, and Virgnia, where we have only won two of the past three there as bad as they've been. Plus we've been racked with injuries this season it's not even funny. Justin Thomas has been pressing and getting away from the scheme because he feels the freshmen and guys who were reserves at the start of the season can't get the job done. It's been a rough year, but I'll tell you that 90% of the fanbase recognizes what the situation is this year, and that 2-5 doesn't really mean we're 2-5 quality. We've lost several games by one score that we were competitive in the entire time. Just a perfect storm type year, but the foundation is being laid for an 8-4 or so bounce back in 2016. Also PJ just got a contract extension at the end of last season, so no way they'd get rid of him now and pay that buyout.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:42 PM ^
One important detail I forgot to mention about Fisher originally (now updated) is that just this summer he went through a divorce, after his wife allegedly had an affair with one of his ex-players. So Southern Cal would theoretically allow him to get away and get a new start.
October 20th, 2015 at 9:18 PM ^
Fisher is a good coach but he's a southerner (went to Samford (Alabama)) and I doubt he'd "fit" in Southern California and in the homes of recruits, don't you agree? I mean, RR was labeled a hick by all the bad fans and trolls the first day he hit AA...I think a guy named Jimbo would be grilled hard unless he won big in the first year...sad to say that but I think it's reality.
Also, why would he really leave FSU for USC...that's a lateral move IMO and he's on the right side of things with his divorce (he didn't pull a Petrino) so he'll be fine socially there.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:29 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 10:22 PM ^
Grumpy old man Dantonio and the LA media would be a horrendous fit. IMO Dantonio is in the perfect spot.
October 25th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
Dantonio isn't going anywhere, I wish U of M fans would stop with this.
He's a god at MSU, if it wasn't his dream job at the start, it has become that at this point. Besides that, does he seem like a USC kind of guy to you?
October 26th, 2015 at 7:59 PM ^
The only place I want him going is McDonald's after Harbaugh repeatedly beats his teams to a bloody pulp year-in year-out.
October 20th, 2015 at 7:31 PM ^
October 20th, 2015 at 9:07 PM ^
Is Golden under fire at Miami? seems like an annual rite that his seat is at least warm?
Looks like the Memphis coach will have the pick of jobs.
Franklin is not a good coach -- he lives off his DC at both Vandy and PSU. It would be hilarious if USC went to him. If I was USC I'd go get Kyle Whittingham and call it a day. I had him as my backup choice if we did not get Harbaugh and he is simply a guy who gets more out of his team than 95% of coaches out there. Plus he is in that conference and recruits Cal already.
October 21st, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
Whittingham is mormon and a Utah lifer. He's a good coach, but I can't see him leaving and especially not for USC, just not a great cultural fit.
October 20th, 2015 at 11:09 PM ^
According to:
http://www.coacheshotseat.com/CoachesHotSeatRanking.htm
Top 10 on the Hot Seat:
October 20th, 2015 at 11:50 PM ^
Thanks for putting this together, nice read. I'll add to the list of likely open jobs:
Syracuse - 3-3 now but few winnable games left. 3rd season for Shafer but injuries likely do him in.
Virginia Tech - I think Beamer calls it quits. Pressure is mounting in Blacksburg and its getting tough to see anything better than 7-5.
Nebraska - Yes, Riley's first season, but there has been a HUGE drop off from Pelini. A losing record puts him on the hot seat, best case scenario.
Florida International - Bowl or bust for Ron Turner. FIU made a huge mistake axing Cristobal, but Turner has yet to bring the Golden Panthers a bowl appearance. Going to likely need a road win to push .500.
Colorado - Program simply hasn't progressed under MacIntyre; tough to make progress in a loaded PAC-12 South. There's a good chance this team goes winless in the PAC-12 again (last conference win against California, November 16, 2013) - if so, MacIntyre is likely gone.
Vanderbilt - I think the SEC is going to be the toughest to figure out. I could see as many as 5 changes (Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas, in addition to South Carolina,and Vanderbilt) - this one is the most likely. Mason simply stepped into a bad situation - Franklin set records with the 'Dores leaving the expectations extremely high. Not only has Mason not lived up to those expectations, but also the team has fallen flat in winnable games (Temple and Kentucky in 2014; Western Kentucky in 2015).
New Mexico State - Aggies aren't exactly traditional football powers, but there's something to be said when the record of the current coach has Mike Locksley-type futility (Locksley was 2-26 at New Mexico, fired 1/4 into his third season. Doug Martin is 4-26 having beaten ONE FBS program (Georgia State, last year as their second eason as a FBS school).
Louisiana-Monroe - Berry's 2012 season has really helped, but since then the Warhawks are 11-19, including 1-5 this season. While winnable games are still remaining, most are on the road.
Idaho - I'm not sure which of the three is the most likely: (1) Paul Petrino fired, (2) Idaho dropping back to the Big Sky, or (3) Dropping football in general. Petrino has equaled his total from the past two seasons combined. Last time Idaho won more than 2 games in one season? 2010. Maybe Petrino is safe?
I actually think Chow gets another year at Hawaii - IIRC his contract is pretty cheap and despite the shutouts (Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise State), the team has actually been competitive. Downside is Wittek graduates.
I keep going back and forth on Purdue. How they finish will depend if Hazell is safe. Four of the last five are winnable (heck, even Iowa is in most years). I think the magic number is 4 - if he wins 3 more, he's safe. Going to be an uphill climb for a guy who is 1-18 to date in the Big Ten. Regardless, the lesson here is timing - as a coach of a mid-major you have to know when to leave and where to leave for. When Beckman left for Illinois, he didn't know when to leave. When Hazell left Kent State, he didn't know where to leave.
October 21st, 2015 at 6:32 AM ^
and their struggles. They had some strong teams in the mid-eighties through 2000. Must be horrible for that fanbase...
October 26th, 2015 at 8:17 PM ^
For that stupid hail mary. Hope sparty gets its comeuppance for that bullshit punt
October 21st, 2015 at 10:47 AM ^
Colorado should have stayed in the Big 12.
October 21st, 2015 at 11:45 AM ^
October 22nd, 2015 at 8:40 AM ^
And now we all know that Gary Barnett is a complete and utter scumbag (shh, don't tell that to Northwestern fans).
October 21st, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^
VT may go for a coaching change but I don't think Beamer would step down unless Bud Foster is the head coach.
October 23rd, 2015 at 11:11 PM ^
I'm hearing a lot of rumblings about Beamer being on the hot seat from people I think would know. They think he may even be done this year. I am kinda surprised, but there you are.
October 22nd, 2015 at 8:13 AM ^
Nebraska: Triple Option Coach. Troy Calhoun (AF coach) that how they won in the day and I think the fan base would love it.
Colorado: Hoke Brothers. He'll get his brother who he wanted at UM (S. Car DC) and he can recruit.
October 23rd, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^
As an Air Force fan my first instinct is to say, leave Troy alone! No-one else can get him(His teams have been up and down, but he's a good coach and gave the team a great spark after the last days of Fisher Deberry, plus as an alum he is quite well acquainted with the challenges of coaching at a Service Academy).
More seriously, he's kind of a weird dude and has..............adversarial at best relationships with both the press and some of the more prominent fans. In the context of Nebraska, sound like any former coaches who got rushed out of town?
If he leaves the Academy I think he ends up going back to be a pro Offensive coordinator. I don't really see him as having the media saviness to handle a P5 job.
October 21st, 2015 at 12:50 AM ^
If I'm a Trojan fan, not sure if Pat Haden is the man I want running the coaching search. He's pretty much botched the last two hires. Next year will be their 3rd head coach (not counting interims) since Carroll left.
October 21st, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^
in not mentioning someone with initials of DJD as a candidate anywhere.
October 21st, 2015 at 11:45 AM ^
Isn't about time for PJ Fleck to start telling people that he's not interested in various job openings. I've always enjoyed watching this time-tested strategy.
October 21st, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^
Except for above comment. Don't follow the subterranean coaching world, but I would have expected his name to be featured for something. Is he just a local phenom?
October 21st, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^
His 12-19 record hasn't wowed people yet. He'll fall-up somewhere soon. Wait till November.
October 21st, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
Illinois - Tom Herman
Maryland - Justin Fuente
South Carolina - Manny Diaz
USC - Lane Kiffin (just kidding), Josh McDaniels
Purdue - Matt Campbell
Rutgers - Al Golden
Arkansas - Tim Beck
Indiana - Dino Babers
West Virginia - Jeff Casteel
Colorado - Bob Stitt (giving Brian a 2nd team to root for)
Miami (FL) - Mark Richt
Georgia - DJ Durkin (ugh I know)
Virginia - Raheem Morris
October 21st, 2015 at 3:41 PM ^
Herman would hold out for a better job than Illinois I think. Hell I'd almost argue that Houston right now is a better job than Illinois.
Fuente can probably do better than Maryland, but it's an intriguing pick.
Stitt is having some growing pains at Montana and I'm not conviced Colrado's ready to go in a new direction just yet.
Babers at Indiana, while unlikely, genuinely frightens me.
October 21st, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^
Is Kevin Wilson really under threat? He's at least made that IU team dangerous, even if he hasn't won a whole lot of games. I'd think you'd take that right now if you're Indiana.
Even if the job does come available, I think Babers can do better if he waits--or maybe even if he doesn't wait. If he wants to go the Big Ten route, Illinois, Maryland, and maybe even Rutgers are all better gigs.
October 22nd, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
I think Herman will stay at Houston for a few seasons. If the Big 12 gets shut out of the CFP again due to lack of a CCG, the conference will probably look to get back to 12 schools, with Houston a likely choice.
Fuente might be able to to stay in the state of Tennessee if the Vols completely crater.
October 22nd, 2015 at 2:25 PM ^
Adding Houston back into the Big XII would renew a lot of the old Southwest Conference rivalries Houston had with a lot of the Texas schools. I'm afraid they'd go after Cincinnati, too, who I'd really like to see the ACC add.
October 22nd, 2015 at 3:04 PM ^
FWIW, my brother and I went to the WKU @ NTU game a week ago and thought they had good stadium/facilities/vibe.
The football team is... really not good right now, but my brief impression was that an ambitious coach could do well there.
October 22nd, 2015 at 7:37 PM ^
October 24th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
Tressel only has a year left on his show cause
October 27th, 2015 at 7:35 AM ^
... that the opportunity to get a head coaching position in the SEC (especially in the East) would be a big enough lure. Yeah, there's not as much talent in SC as in some states and yeah there's competition from Clemson.
But, as we have seen this year, a good coach with the right attitude can coach up talent that others thought was inferior and turn it around.
October 24th, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^
I really want Bo Pelini to take the Illinois job. It would be so great to watch him play Nebraska every year
October 24th, 2015 at 4:40 PM ^
I asked about Golden earlie in thread
Clemson should have done the trick.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13960128/warren-sapp-oth…
October 25th, 2015 at 8:12 PM ^
hey now...
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