Picture Pages: Circle Routes
Despite some post-burial kicking at the ceiling, Jake Rudock's pick six was the final nail in Michigan's coffin against Utah. It came on a route that I've called a "circle" for a bit now. The idea is that you run a slant, then abort that halfway through into an out route. Corner jumps the slant, you get some nice separation and hooray beer. Or you run an out, corner jumps the out, etc.
The general idea is that it is a horizontal double move. I've called it "circle" probably because NCAA football did back in the day; you can see that on a successful one the WR does tend to run in a little circle after his first break:
Both Utah and Michigan tried to run these routes on Thursday, with different results. Here are those plays… AT THE SAME TIME.
On the left will be a Utah throw on their first touchdown drive. It's second and six; Michigan is in the nickel they ran the whole day, showing press coverage on the outside.
On the right, Michigan attempts to convert a third and three halfway through the fourth quarter while down a touchdown.
As far as we're concerned these plays are completely identical to start: we are looking at the slot receiver to the bottom of the screen with a corner who is locked up in man coverage three yards off the line of scrimmage.
A couple moments after the snap both WRs have crossed the LOS; the only difference in the corners is that the Utah guy has taken a step forward, perhaps anticipating this route.
[After the JUMP: everything goes fine because HARBAUGH? Probably!]
Next, a crucial difference:
These guys didn't start at the same exact point on that down and distance effect; Perry started at the bottom and Utah's guy was a step further inside, so this looks more different than it actually is: it's still way different. Utah's WR has taken a step and turned his body, causing Peppers to react. Probably over-react since this slant is headed right into those linebackers.
Meanwhile Perry is offering a vague hint of a slant only. The cornerback is not reacting; Perry hasn't given him anything to react to.
By the point at which these guys stop to circle, Peppers has turned his hips to the inside; the Utah nickel has barely taken a step. Peppers has momentum he has to deal with. Perry's route has not done the same thing.
The difference here is a step, maybe two, from both defender and wide receiver.
On such steps empires rise and fall. DUN DUN DUN.
Video
Utah:
Michigan:
Fox also provided a replay of the second:
Things and stuff
Routes, man. UFR sucks at routes. I tried to branch into that last year but the primary limitation is that it's hard to see most of 'em. I ended up with a few minuses, the occasional plus, and nothing approximating a take on anyone's skills in that department that doesn't fall prey to Hitchens's Razor.
It bothers me even more since in this game we got assertions from Harbaugh that Jehu Chesson slowed up on the first deep ball that went just over his outstretched hand, and if you squint on a replay it certainly looks like he downshifts slightly once the corner bites on his out route.
I mean, probably. But probably he should do that since he's open by yards and he doesn't want to run out of real estate? I don't know; if WR and QB know what's going on with each other that is the TD is so badly wants to be.
Routes are a great hidden thing that only stick out when they are totally obvious, and about 80% of them never get tested. They are destined to be a feelingsball kind of thing.
HE STARED DOWN HIS GUY THE WHOLE TIME. Yeah. So did Travis Wilson.
This is a route against man coverage on which no fancy robber zone is ever going to impact you. The only guys looking at the QB have no shot at defending the pass. Stare away.
HE SHOULD HAVE USED THE INFORMATION FROM STARING. This I will go with. Rudock's presnap read was correct. A circle route that catches pure man coverage is a tough cover. Often you're going to get a safety matching up against a much quicker guy. It is one of those things that makes a HSP like Peppers exciting: he can and should cover that. (I mean, eventually, right?)
So there is a natural inclination to think the throw you are making is a good idea. It should be discarded when the receiver ends up with a gentleman in his breadbasket. Polished offenses don't ask their QB to make this decision much, if at all, because the guy is open; this is an offense in Hoke rehab.
FIRE GRANT PERRY. This goes back to FIRE BRADY HOKE, man. Hoke recruited zero slot receivers after Dennis Norfleet, and barely any receivers, period, after the Darboh/Chesson class. Thus your two slots in this game were both true freshmen.
Perry looked exactly like a promising freshman in this game, which is to say he looked pretty good when not making boggling errors. I do not know why Hoke thought he could create a football team that never needed a little receiver to pick up third and medium. You'll have to tune in to SiriusXM to find out.
/shorts SiriusXM stock
CAN WE GO BACK TO PEPPERS FOR A SECOND HERE. Okay.
I THOUGHT HE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE CHARLES WOODSON. Life as a nickel guy is tougher than life as a boundary corner, because as a boundary corner you can just line up and—if you are as athletic as Peppers is—put them in the, you know, boundary. Having to go both directions is more difficult, and Peppers could have done better with it in game one.
Also: game one. He'll get better. Probably with rapidity. Meanwhile, can I interest you in some screens?
September 8th, 2015 at 2:03 PM ^
Watching Rudock throw the deep ball on Thirsday was painful. If you watch the tape he's just sitting back there rifling the ball down the field. No touch and using every ounce of arm strength he has from the looks of it.
Compare that to some of Henne's deep balls where he just flicks it out there and it doesn't even look like he's trying.
I think we all just have to realize Rudock is the best we have at this point and as long as he takes care of the ball we'll be OK. But our upside is limited until we get an O'Korn or Peters in there who both have more natural ability.
September 8th, 2015 at 2:33 PM ^
Well if he's throwing it as far as he can with every ounce of strength to get it as far as he threw it, then isn't there such a thing as designing deep balls that are 5, 7 or 10 yards less deep, but still deep, that maybe he'd have better control on? That way you're still stretching the defense and making everything else easier.
September 8th, 2015 at 2:40 PM ^
said this Friday, Rudock has a weak arm and a bad motion. He pushes the ball.
You're right about the flicking...watching Cardale Jones last night throw bombs rolling to his left, off his back foot, shoulders not square...a world away from Rudock.
September 8th, 2015 at 2:32 PM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^
Watch the tape again. Chesson slowed down and then when he spotted the ball in the air he tried to speed up to catch it. Had he kept running it was a TD. Harbaugh said the same thing in his presser yesterday. This was a simple matter of timing. Go look at Todd Collins vs. PSU in 1994 for a similar throw... it happens.
September 8th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
;Picture pages with Christopher Hitchens reference... I see ya big fella
September 8th, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 1:18 PM ^
Harbaugh commented on Perry's lack of route precision, and you see it in the pictures. On an out route, you have to sell the slant and get the DB to bite. By bite I mean turn his shoulders and/or hips. Utah got Peppers to bite. Perry did not.
End of story.
September 8th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 1:46 PM ^
Need to close the gap and "step on his toes" to force him to react inside. He does a weak fake inside with a gap between himself and the man. The man also has inside leverage because there is no LB help inside for him, so he's not going to turn unless you step on his inside toes and force him to turn inside.
The leverage is a different story between the two plays, as Brian pointed out. Peppers has two LBs inside of him, he can play with outside leverage and any slant has a LB sitting underneath the route. The Utah guy only has one LB inside and has to check the QB. He plays with inside leverage and never loses that leverage post-snap. You have to force a defender that's walling off to turn, if he can wall off then he can break outside faster than the receiver can, which is what happened here.
Ultimately though, Rudock never should have made the throw. Poor route, poorer decision to throw.
September 8th, 2015 at 2:14 PM ^
I'm not a fan of the throw, but Rudock made up his mind at the snap. If Perry runs a good route and gets that corner to bite, it's a completion and Michigan has a chance to tie the game.
If ifs were fifths we'd all be drunk.
September 8th, 2015 at 2:32 PM ^
even if Perry ran a perfect route, Utah CB would still undercut the route for a pick-6
September 8th, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^
The perfect route would have resulted in the CB out of position (a la Peppers in the counter-photo), so.....
September 8th, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^
It seems that there is some confusion on who or what the QB is looking at . Many think that the QB is looking (staring down) at the receiver. If he is, he should't be. He should be looking at the DB. If the QB sees the DB turn his hips, then he should throw. If the QB doesn't see the DB's hips turn, then go to next progression.
September 8th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 2:30 PM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 1:27 PM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 1:37 PM ^
I wonder if Rudock realized his ints were going to be analyzed like the Zapruder film.
My analysis reveals that if he throws down, and to the left, that's a harmless incompletion.
September 8th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^
either that or you'll think they're solid by game 3 or 4 because they'll have played Oregon State, UNLV, and BYU.
What's with playing all these out west teams?
September 8th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^
We must remember that Perry is 4 months out of high school and Peppers is essentially a freshman as well. For anyone who discounts the freshman effect look back at the UM/MSU game in 1995 or the first half of the OSU game of that year to see a freshman Charles Woodson fail to make plays that would become second nature later in his career. No one makes the leap without a few bad things happening early on. Peppers will be one of the best players in college football soon and Perry will be a very solid slot receiver for a long time.
September 8th, 2015 at 1:53 PM ^
Anything can be asserted or dismissed in a multitude of ways. Unless of course you have the helmet stickers to prove otherwise.
September 8th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^
Isn't this route called a whip or pivot route?
September 8th, 2015 at 3:02 PM ^
that a QB does not want to under throw in that situation, so a good throw is long not short. Combine that with the air being thinner in Utah and him being pumped up early in the game. I am sure his eyes were as big as a saucer when he saw his reciever getting so wide open. It does not suprise me at all that both throws were over thrown.
September 8th, 2015 at 3:04 PM ^
I do not know why Hoke thought he could create a football team that never needed a little receiver to pick up third and medium
All the more so given that Drew Dileo was his go-to receiver on critical downs.
September 8th, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^
Hoke left the skill positions on offense almost completely bare... Harbaugh knows this which is why he brought in 10000 QBs
September 8th, 2015 at 3:29 PM ^
Great analysis Brian. Thank you!
I was dismayed at the number of Michigan "fans" who piled on Rudock after the game....some calling him "garbage" etc. I hope that he did not hear any of that to his face because he did not deserve it. He played OK, well in some spots. Perhaps he should not have thrown this ball....but as you mention the presnap read was there and the WR ran a poor route. This happened 2X.
People that understand Football...know that timing between a QB and WR is vital...along with route running. This was a case of a guy who just arrived on campus in a new offense, throwing to a guy who had never played college football before. It was unfortunate, but it will get better. Rudock can make that throw all day folks.
BTW Tom Brady threw a similar pick 6 his first throw vs. UCLA in 95. That one was on Tom though not on the WR.
September 8th, 2015 at 5:19 PM ^
had a bad game and or cost UM the game forget that football is a team sport. In my opinion, he had an ok game but missed on having an amazing game Because, lets face it, if he threw TD's instead of Int's he would be hailed a hero by these very same fans.
September 8th, 2015 at 6:04 PM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 6:21 PM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 6:26 PM ^
In regards to Rudock, Perry, the over throws, and the INT's: nothing that happened was at all surprising given the lack of cohesion between the QB and WR's. If coach comes out and says the WR slowed down, then he slowed down -- the if's and but's in here are pretty meaningless, and I'll bet BOTh guys do it better next time.
Guys can rip on Rudock all they want, but I for one was pleased to see a QB actually throw a deep ball that wasn't a jump ball, ala Denard to Junior, and a WR get some separation. I am not really sure what people were expecting, but lots of guys are way to hard on Rudock, IMO. Further, and back to Perry, maybe the reason that he was targeted so often was because he was open? Novel concept, I know.
Personally, I'd be willing to bet that the 2015 opener versus Utah will be the WORST game Michigan ever plays while Harbaugh is coaching, and it was a few read/routes/steps from being a win. At this point, I'll take it.
September 8th, 2015 at 7:41 PM ^
Good thing Jake listens to Harbaugh. The Ws are on the way. If we had a warm up opener, we just might have pulled this game out against the Utes. After only one game we were much improved, much crisper overall, fewer mistakes. Deep balls were close, loved the Kerridge dive for five yards (thought Jim would keep calling that number), and special teams looked like there was purpose. On the punt O'Neal held, I held my breath hoping he'd tuck it and run -- so much room and he's plenty athletic. We have much to be optimistic about if we can get the trenches cleaned up.
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September 8th, 2015 at 9:54 PM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 10:54 PM ^
September 9th, 2015 at 12:20 AM ^
September 9th, 2015 at 7:56 PM ^
People reading lots into week one play. Some important first time performances.
Rudock (at least new to Michigan) with his INTs and overthrows.
Utah DB who got burned on the overthrows.
Perry with bad routes.
Utah receiver who turned Peppers on this Utah play.
Peppers who blew up Utah's WR screen.
Utah WR "blocking" Peppers on most plays.
Looking at the "what ifs?" from this game, my takeaway is that the experienced players on both teams played very well, and that the mistakes were largely concentrated in guys playing their first game of college football. Michigan's underperformers will improve with experience and improved chemistry. Utah's underperformers may get a chance to improve next year as the projected starting DB and WR return to action. I think both teams, if they can stay healthy, wind up with pretty strong seasons.
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