Season Prediction Thread
I think we are getting toward the time of year where we can make some predictions. I haven't seen a thread dedicated to this yet, but if there has been, mods go ahead and delete.
I'll say 10-2 regular season, with 9-3 more likely than 11-1. Here's my rationale, and I hope you provide some rather than just putting down a number.
- Last year we were 121/125 in TO margin. With Ruddock presumably at QB, this should buy us, what, 2-3 wins? And if he's not QB, barring injury, the only reason can be positive.
- Pretty easy schedule outside of Utah, MSU and OSU. @Minnesota and @PSU will not be easy, but if we are what I think we should be, they really shouldn't compare at a talent level and for once we can say coaching should be an advantage.
- The defense looks to be no worse than good. Will it be elite? Will James Ross step up? Will Taco or Lawerence Marshall or I suppose Mario give us any pass rush? If we get a pass rush, I think the defense will be elite, but I'm not basing 10-2 on that.
- OL: We take a unit that performed reasonably well last year, give them more experience and arguably one of the best OL coaches in the country. Worst case scenario: solid pass pro and mediocre rushing. High hopes: very good but not elite.
- RBs: I'd really be surprised if we can't find someone or somebodys to perform admirably out of the 5 candidates: Isaac (IMO will be primary ball carrier), Green, Smith, Johnson, Higdon.
- WRs: Single biggest weakness I see. Darboh, from what we've seen, should be a #2, and he will be #1. I don't see Chesson taking it to the next level. Can Canteen, Harris, or maybe Peppers or Cole provide a dynamic option?
- X-Factor: Harbaugh performance in key games. This has been well-documented.
- We get our two toughest games at home. Win one and drop another annnnnddd
10-2
Hoke would do better than that. Even with Shane Morris at QB.
He didn't do better than that with his choice of Devin Gardner and Shane Morris at QB last year.
Easier schedule + TO margin.
So which of those games do you think would be wins under Hoke that I have as losses under Harbaugh?
BYU isn't projected to be very good. I'd be surprised to lose to both Minnesota and PSU.
Minnesota mopped the floor with Michigan in Michigan Stadium last year. Why would you think that Hoke would go into Minnesota and win? I don't know much about BYU. Maybe mark BYU or Penn State as a win if the team doesn't stumble too bad. I guess they're kinda like toss-ups.
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Yeah I would be at Defcon 1 if this happened.
..... for the 3rd straight year. Two years ago they went 7-5, and last year was 5-7.
Non-conference: 3-1 they most likely split Utah and BYU, and beat OSU and UNLV in close ones. (but I think 2-2 is more likely than 4-0).
BIG: 4-4. For the home games 2-2 , they likely beat NU and Rutgers, but lose to MSU and OSU. For away games 2-2 , they likely split with M-land and M-sota, lose to PSU, and beat IU in a close one.
So 7-5 is my pick again, with 6-6 as likely as 8-4.
Per science here are the win probabilities. These take into account when the game is played and where but don't account for any injuries. Don't doubt science.
- @Utah: 42.9%
- Oregon State: 91.2% [preview]
- UNLV: 98.4%
- BYU: 54.8% [preview]
- @Maryland: 67.4%
- Northwestern: 78.2% [preview]
- MSU: 39.6%
- @Minn: 63.7% [preview]
- Rutgers: 82.3%
- @Indiana: 68.8%
- @PSU: 47.1%
- OSU: 34.4%
As I do more previews my opinions... err science may change.
The 3 biggest year over year changes aside from "HARBAUGH!" and attitude will be:
- Turnover Margin - we were so below the average on both offense and defense just returning to average will be a huge change
- A Passer who can Pass with Consistent Accuracy - we will ooh and ahh basic 14 yard out patterns that were adventures the past 7 years
- Special teams - Baxter will make a difference... we will regularly field 11 players on all special teams units. Woo hoo.
Special teams is where I'm most confident we'll see improvement. Baxter's record is almost incredibly strong, and there are plenty of good athletes on the roster for him to work with.
But when will you preview a game that UM is not favored to win?
We have no proven impact players...none. No one who realistically projects to even second team all-BT based on what they did last year, no position group that's even top 2 or 3 in the conference. I'd give us an 80-90% chance of falling between 7 and 9 wins. 10 wins would be our absolute best case scenario, and an awful lot of things would have to go right for that to happen. 11 wins in the RS is fantasyland for this team.
If you look back at past seasons, we've had better talent quite a few times without getting to 10 wins. It's tough. Simply crossing your fingers and saying Harbaugh! a lot won't get it done. In addition to only slightly better than average talent, we don't have the toughness or the winning attitude it takes to pull upsets or beat quality teams on the road. Maybe next year we'll be ready for double digit wins, but this year it's not realistic.
Realistically, I think Utah, Staee and OSU are probable losses. And we could beat UT and still lose to MN or PSU.
But if we pull out a win in Salt Lake we could stand a good chance of going into the MSU game 6-0. If that is the case I like our chances of some big upsets down the stretch.
I am hesitant with preseason predictions in the first place, but really hesitant this year for some reason - it's a total style change for this team and we'll probably see some interesting switches and changes depending on how well some evaluate at certain positions. If I had to guess just based on general feeling - based on very little data - 8-4 seems pretty sensible. This might be the first time in a while where I kind of want to see the first quarter of the season before people quote me.
I like the optimism but I think the expectations are way too high for Harbaugh's first season. It is really hard to know how much talent is on this team after Hoke's lack of player development, in game adjustments, game planning, and any kind of attention to detail. That being said, this team could be loaded with talent and was just hindered by the coach. I have no doubt that this team is going to be greatly improved, I think the defense and the running game will be impressive. Question marks remain about the passing game but if the running game is what I think it can be, passing opportunities will be there.
8-4 with a bowl win. Hopeful for more than 8 regular season wins.
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Undefeated.
http://www.redeyechicago.com/sports/breaking/ct-michigan-taxidermist-re…
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- I predict 8-4, with a win over MSU or OSU. @Utah, VS BYU, and @Minny will be the other losses.
- 9-3 and up will be MUCH more likely than 7-5 and below.
- The defense keeps us in every game, and the offense struggles a bit early, but puts together a solid final 4 game stretch.
- TO margin will be in the middle of the pack, rather than close to dead last.
- Make something akin to the Gator Bowl, and put on a solid beating of a half decent SEC squad to set up for an optimistic 2016
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i think we really have to pump the brakes on calling our defense "elite." It was always decent under Mattison but always seemed to crumble when we really needed a stop.
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i think we really have to pump the brakes on calling our defense "elite." It was always decent under Mattison but always seemed to crumble when we really needed a stop.
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I think 9-3 with a bowl win to make it 10-3 overall. One non-conference loss, one loss from PSU, Minny, or Maryland, and loss to OSU. There is experienced talent on this team, especially on both lines. We have not seen that in some time. Turnovers and special teams will also provide a shot in the arm. Competent coaching can make a huge difference in football; and we now have that and then some. This is not a re-build like our previous two attempts. I will say, however, we would be closer to 9-4 than 11-2.
I think Indiana is the best chance to win on the road. I did say one loss from PSU, Minny, and Maryland. PSU would probably most difficult game of the three. MSU will be a much different type of game. The idea of rivalry will be reestablished in my opinion.
If all those MGoBloggers who are predicting a record of 7-5 or 8-4 were to be right, then maybe they'd still be satisfied if the season ended with a win over Notre Dame in the Pinstripe Bowl or a win over Stanford in the Holiday Bowl.
I think the continuity on the defensive side of the ball will help alleviate some of the potential problems that may exist on offense, such as a new offensive playbook and philosophy. I'm hoping with that, and the reduced turnover rate, we increase the wins. Maybe an 8-4, possibly 9-3, season.
Very likely losses to MSU and OSU; likely loss to Utah; very likely to lose at least one of BYU/Minnesota/PSU; quite possible we drop another one too. Would not be shocked at all if we lost to two of those last three.
Gun to my head, I guess I'd pick 8-4 just because of homerism and Harbaugh. With any less a luminary than Harbaugh, I'd be saying 7-5 tops.
We are probably the 2nd most talented team in the B1G. But that is potential talent. It will be interesting to see how quick Harbaugh and his coaches can get players to play up to their potential. Hopefully we will see some big play makers develop in the WR and RB ranks. The ceiling for this team is 10-2. I think there will be a lot of close games this season and if some plays don't go Harbaugh's way he could finish 7-5. If we beat UT, I say 10-2 is a good possibility, if we lose then it may be 8-4.
I'm sorry but all this 8-4 and even 9-3 stuff just doesn't add up with me. This is the SAME team that hung with the national champs for 3 quarters with a bad coach and bad QB at the end of last year, and almost beat them the year before with the same setup.
This team has talent and passion and once you add Harbaugh to that mix I expect to see a truly well-coached team that plays above its talent level.
10-2 is my bottom, that's if we somehow lose to both msu and osu which I don't see happening with both games being at home.
Does anyone really think Harbaugh is going to get blown out in any game?
Would you want to bet against Harbaugh with the game on the line in the 4th?
It's a great day to be a Michigan fan, I expect after a hard fought win against msu to have the title on the line against osu and on to the playoffs!
GO BLUE!
Everyone watch this season hype tape and let me know if it gets you as ready for the season to start as it got me
I see 7-8 wins. Losses to OSU, MSU, Utah. 50-50 games vs PSU, BYU, and Minny. Win 2 of 3 of the 50-50 games and we're 8-4. Win 1 of 3 of those and we're 7-5.
We're nowhere near OSU or MSU right now in terms of talent, but I still think Harbaugh's better coaching will keep those games pretty close.