OT: MLB Trade Rumors predicts Victor Martinez to sign with White Sox
To my fellow Tigers fans on this blog: this would suck. They also have Max Scherzer predicted to go to the Yankees, which isn't too much of a surprise but losing Victor Martinez would really cause this team to fall in the American League. Here is the rest of the top ranked free agents and where they are predicted to land:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
November 4th, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^
Fuck that
November 4th, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^
November 4th, 2014 at 4:32 PM ^
A cliff lies somewhere ahead for VMart. Torii reached his this year and Justin may have. We need youngr guys to start producing.
November 4th, 2014 at 5:09 PM ^
Yep. His season was probably an anomaly considering his age and injury history. If he wanted to sign a short term deal, I and I have to imagine the Tigers would be all about it. But he supposedly wants a 3-4 year deal, which honestly, the Tigers can't afford. We've got alot of money tied into Cabrera, Verlander and Sanchez. We've also got David Price becoming a FA after next season. And we still have big bullpen issues. And some other possible holes (OF, SP, C etc). Money is better spent elsewhere since Martinez will probably have a somewhat significant drop in stats and playing time in 2015 and beyond.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^
If they sign Kendry's Morales or Torii Hunter on the cheap to DH and then use the savings to upgrade the outflied I think it could be a wash
November 4th, 2014 at 4:18 PM ^
in another newspaper that the Yankees are not looking to pursue Max...I'd cite the source, but its not one that is in favor round deez parts. So, suffice to say that its being looked at. I saw in yet another source, ESPN specifically, that the Tigers offered both of them qualifying offers. Not sure what'll that mean if they're going somewhere else...but I'm still holding on to hope we can get them both back. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11816910/max-scherzer-victor-martinez-get-qualifying-offers-detroit-tigers?ex_cid=espnapi_public
November 4th, 2014 at 4:22 PM ^
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November 4th, 2014 at 4:24 PM ^
Here's the report:
If you look at it, it makes sense. People think "Yankees=rich" but they are already up against the luxury tax, have A-Rod and his $20+mil salary coming back on the books this year, and have holes everywhere (e.g., replacing Jeter). They don't remotely have the budget to spend the close to $30 mil/year and $175+ million overall that it will take to get Max. Neither do the Tigers, for that matter (now that they have Price), so Max is going somewhere, just not Detroit or NYY.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^
The Tigers would get a compensation draft pick if the player signs elsewhere. Not much, but at least it's something.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:19 PM ^
November 4th, 2014 at 4:22 PM ^
If it happens, it happens. The biggest need is CF and the bullpen. I'm sure there will be some moves this offseason.
November 4th, 2014 at 5:04 PM ^
Either left or right field if you can't make 2 seviceable guys out of Rajai, JD and Dirks. Real questions about whether Iglesias works out with both shins blowing up at once. An area where I do have a little faith is relieve just because we have so many bodies who at least have been good. We'll see.
November 4th, 2014 at 5:15 PM ^
November 4th, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^
I'm really interested to see how Iglesias plays when he comes back. And Dirks is gone.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:23 PM ^
And shouldn't it be labeled as such?
November 4th, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^
Yeah, my bad. This was my first post, I'm kind of new to this.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:23 PM ^
Stop listening to the fear mongers...
and if he leaves for some ridiculous deal what can you do but wish him well?
November 4th, 2014 at 4:27 PM ^
He was right on 8 of his 50 predictions last year, we'll see what happens.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:28 PM ^
Also Tigers will bring back Victor. They have to.
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November 4th, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^
November 4th, 2014 at 4:32 PM ^
Just because Max has offered that doesn't mean Illitch has interest in doing so. We offered Scherzer a ton of money last year and he turned it down. He's likely gone. Someone will overpay for him.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^
it wasn't the money that he didn't want, it was the multi-year deal. I think he wants to have some flexibility with a 2 or 3 year deal.
November 4th, 2014 at 5:12 PM ^
Price.
apx starter salaries... JV= $20M, Price = $14M, Sanchez= $16m, and Ricky= $8.5M. So we're at $50M before Max's $20M.... Just the $50 is higher than the Astros' entire payroll.
Porcello will likely be looking for a long term deal if he repeats his 2014 campaign and we'll likely give it to him. Max is gone.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^
That would kill the offense. No way Illitch lets Victor get away. As for any other players we'll see.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:56 PM ^
Sure he might, if just depends on who he gets to replace him. If we're in on another slugger, especially a CF, then we'd let VMart go.
November 4th, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^
How many years have the Tigers been in the top two or three in batting average, and how long have they had what's considered among the best rotation in baseball, and how many Series wins has this gotten them? It sucks to watch big names go out the door, but the current philosophy in terms of personnel clearly is just enough to win a mediocre division and then fall apart in the postseason. Bullpen and defense, please.
November 4th, 2014 at 5:39 PM ^
6 though 9 have been awful at the plate for years. The corner infielders and outfielders are bad in the field... yet we have Miggy and the starting rotation to largely make up for it. Use Max's $10M for a good CF, and a decent corner outfielder. Trade Dirks. Hope JD is for real. Rajai platoons. Hope Castellanos develops as he should. Evaluate the hell out of Iglesias as SS was a disaster last year and if Iglesias can't go again we're screwed. Hope either Nathan or Soria regain their form to close.
I always compare teams to '84.... Herndon, Lemon, Gibson, Evans/Bergman were all better than serviceable and made few mistakes (outside of Chester's bizarre adventures on the basepaths and Gibson's wet noodle for an arm). Hojo/Brookens/Castillo were serviceable at third and carried themselves as such (as opposed to Inge or Rayburn)... Parrish was great in those few years and Tram/Lou were Tram and Lou. The point is that team was great at the tip-top, but just very solid thru the 8 position players. Won us a championship and woulda had 2 if it weren't for baseball at the flubberdome.
November 4th, 2014 at 9:21 PM ^
you being obviously unaware that Dirks is gone, a very good post. The Tigers are a very top-heavy team, not offensively productive thru the bottom 3rd of the line-up, and need major upgrades in the bullpen and outfield. And please don't get me started on their anemic bench.
It's not going to be easy to continue the streak of Central Division titles next season.
November 4th, 2014 at 10:28 PM ^
The problem is there are literally no FA centerfielders, let alone any worth 10M. Literally, there's not a single CF in that list of the top 50 free agents.
November 4th, 2014 at 5:05 PM ^
They also think the Cubs, who have been building through the farm system, not with overpriced aging free agents, will sign Jon Lester, Russell Martin, David Robertson, Justin Masterson and Jake Peavy.
I wouldn't bet on these predictions.
November 4th, 2014 at 6:10 PM ^
The Cubs have largely eschewed pitching prospects in that farm system build. Their starting pitching is Arrieta and a bunch of back end guys at best (Hendricks was probably a fluke and is generally considered maybe a 4 at best, and their best pitching prospect in the minors is a guy few think can hold up as a starter) so they're going to have to fill in by either buying those starters or trading some of that position depth for it.
Damn near everyone thinks they'll be the ones who end up with Lester (he doesn't cost a draft pick if you sign him either), and Masterson is exactly the kind of guy they have been signing in the offseason the last couple of years as it is. Peavy has been flipped by teams at the last two deadlines, so that'd probably be the though there (and amusingly, said teams who traded for him won the title both years, so obviously if you want to win the title you should trade for Jake Peavy at the deadline). Robertson would surprise me because I can't imagine giving up a draft pick for a reliever, but if they already decide to do it with Martin (and that pick would be their second rounder as their first is protected I believe) then they may as well go for the gusto and grab some others who would cost a pick.
November 4th, 2014 at 5:10 PM ^
basing his picks on his fantasy baseball universe.
Although I'd like to be a fly on the wall when Victor meets his new teammate Chris Sale, what with Victors centerfield binoculars guy and all.
November 4th, 2014 at 6:09 PM ^
I guess the fear I would have is what that does to the folks that bat around his space in the lineup if he goes and we don't manage to find someone with similar production to replace him. I could see a scenario where Martinez goes and now Cabrera looks a little worse, you don't get what you need to get from J.D. Martinez, etc...that's a sizeable hole to fill.
November 4th, 2014 at 10:20 PM ^
The problem is, there exists no similar production to fill his hole. He literally was an MVP candidate. You can't replace that with any current FA. Hell, you could only replace that production with a few people in the leage (Trout, Abreau, Jones).
November 4th, 2014 at 6:21 PM ^
White Sox.
Could we at least keep his kid? Because he's awesome.
November 4th, 2014 at 6:21 PM ^
I think people are underrating the severity of losing VMart. It simply cannot happen. He was arguably THE BEST HITTER IN THE LEAGUE which deserves all-caps.
Even if his power slides, he's still a lock for .300+ every year.
If we lose him, there's no way you can replace him in the lineup. He's a sign-at-all-costs player.
November 4th, 2014 at 6:50 PM ^
The best hitter in the league will retire a Tiger.
VMart going to the Sox would be terrible, because it's the White Sox, but he's not a must sign. He's 36 next month and could easily get injured, plus he doesn't play defense.
November 4th, 2014 at 10:13 PM ^
He's a DH - the liklihood of him getting hurt is minimal. He's the type of hitter who will be able to perform late into his career - hits for average and uses all fields.
He was a much better hitter than Cabrera this year.
The point is, he's unreplacable in the lineup. There's no other FA that comes close. He's a must keep. The Tigers lineup was rough all year. Imagine it without Martinez. Do you really want to rely on JD Martinez replicating his career year? What the hell does the lineup do without Victor?!?!
November 4th, 2014 at 6:30 PM ^
November 4th, 2014 at 7:04 PM ^
Max absolutely can not return. The only way is if he has a change of heart to take a big enough to discount to pay for the compensatory pick that is coming (which has real value to the Tigers.) The Tigers already made this decision when they traded for Price. The reality is they are better off finding another pitcher through another route. It's beside the point though - their pitching staff is elite even without Scherzer. (Price, Sanchez, Porcello, Verlander). There are better things to spend $ on than a 5th starter and it's hard to justify sitting somebody like Porcello or Verlander in the playoffs when they're paid so much.
Martinez has a better chance of returning, but the DH situation is problematic since that's where Cabrera and JD Martinez should often be. It also blocks Moya's emergence. Furthermore, VMart is old and unlikely to replicate his 2014 season, though I'm sure he'll still be good. Let someone else overpay.
The reality is the Tigers need to get younger and cheaper. 2013 was their best shot and they missed it. Now they have to hope to find some emerging players to fill their big needs; LH bats, CF, 3B. They have to hope for a bounceback year from Verlander and that Soria/Nathan/Rondon shape up into the bullpen they should be on paper.
Also, Kinsler should be traded before his contract becomes a major negative. We have a glut of middle infielders.
Last year's Tigers club made painful moves but they were needed to fix some imbalances. The job isn't quite done. A lot of very productive Tigers need to move on. Thanks to Max, VMart, Torri, etc., but the team has to move on.
November 4th, 2014 at 8:15 PM ^
Is anyone really blocking Moya, I mean the dude walks barely 4% of his AB's and was a windmill at Erie last season, he's had a solid AZ fall league but he's still not ready for the show.
November 5th, 2014 at 12:47 AM ^
Iglesias is certainly worth a spot and he can replace Kinsler while shifting the SS platoon to 2B. It's a downgrade for sure, but it opens up a ton of salary in the long-term. Kinsler is past his prime and fading, though he did have a very good year.
Moya isn't ready yet, but Cabrera and Martinez should already be heavily utilized at DH.
November 5th, 2014 at 1:48 AM ^
Iglesias is certainly an everyday player, but you're now thinking he (our best defensive infielder) should move to 2nd for another year of shitty platooning at the most important defensive spot on the infield? I don't mean to come off as rude but what logic are you using here? You want us to replace a 5.5 WAR player at 2nd with our best infielder and have Iglesias' everyday SS job to be replaced by a platoon that combined for a 0.7 WAR last year?
Contract be damned, sometimes the players get paid for a reason, and sometimes those reasons adds up to a difference of 4 1/2 games...
November 4th, 2014 at 9:47 PM ^
but he has to go for that reason. Every year you sign him for is another year Cabrera has to play in the field. The Tigers need to be more flexible with that DH position with ailing and aging Cabrera and below average JD Martinez in the field. And think if in two years they make the world series (the intended goal). Who would play in the field of the guys that are two years older and two years slower. And career years at age 38 are rarely repeated sans steroids. If Victor is back, I will smile. But I feel the money will be better spent elsewhere.
November 4th, 2014 at 10:16 PM ^
Where is the money better spent?
VMart is worth every dime, unless you count on having a lineup featuring Cabrera, Kinsler, and.... JD Martinez replicating a career year? Rajai Davis? Nick Castellanos?
VMart hits to all fields. He's in great shape, he DH's and is unlikely to run into injury problems. Cabrera is fine at first base.
If anything, I'd trade JD Martinez while his value is at its peak.
November 5th, 2014 at 12:52 AM ^
JD Martinez is a post-hype prospect who reached his potential at a fairly typical age when players make a leap. He'll hit, and hit very well for the next 4-5 years.
VMart is a hall of famer, but he has an extremely low probability of replicating last year. He's a rich man's Carlos Guillen. He has been hurt multiple times over the last few years. (As has Cabrera while trying to play 1B/3B).
The money should be spent on younger players, preferably LH hitters in OF or 3B or 1B or.... anywhere besides DH.
November 5th, 2014 at 1:34 AM ^
You really want to be paying him that in 2016, when he's gone the way of all (athletic) flesh?
The Tigers have already made a bet on his bat and won big. This is when you let someone else overpay, not double down.
The Tigers have a problem - they're a top-heavy team with two of those top players hitting free agency, at a time when paying them will be a guaranteed overpay. They are also on the hook for big salaries to players whose decline is coming in the short term (Cabrera) or is already here (Verlander).
We have already seen that paying big bucks to relievers is hardly the answer, and I can't think of any four-year+ free agent deal for a top pitcher that worked out - the standard is more Darren Driefort. I mean even CJ Wilson, Zach Greinke and Dan Haren are success stories here, such as it is.
Quite simply, at the prices they will command, the team that signs them will be betting heavily that those signings will push them over the top in year 1-2 at the price of being millstones in the rest of the deal. That description doesn't fit the Tigers - we have to sign them to stand still (and even that's not likely, as VMart and JMart are unlikely to reproduce their 2014 numbers). We'd be throwing good money after bad.
Now, it's the owner's money, and it's never a bad sign when they're willing to spend; the Tigers have a limited window before everybody declines or hits free agency, so maybe it's their best move. Just don't confuse it with anything other than an act of desperation, or impute it better odds than that.
November 4th, 2014 at 7:40 PM ^
November 4th, 2014 at 10:17 PM ^
The only thing that's obvious is that you don't know what you're talking about.