Expectations, Hysteria, and Calm Objectivity
This, of course, is an emotional reaction. So let's put away the pitchforks (for the pissed off out there) and the shotguns (for the depressed out there) and take a step back, and just look at this team's progress towards its goals.
Before the season, I openly predicted that we would go 6-6 in a diary.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/realistic-2009-prediction
Of the commenters that predicted, the breakdown went as such:
9+ wins (3)
8 wins (4)
7 wins(8)
6 wins or less (7)
Five of the seven commenters predicting 6 or less predicted 5 wins, nobody predicted 4 or less. So including myself, 8/23 or more than a 1/3 predicted a season to finish 6-6 at best. Over 2/3 predicted a best-case scenario of 7-5. Granted, 23 is a small sample size, but it's what I have.
Midway through the season we were 4-2 heading into a game against Delaware State, also known as the School for the Blind, so 5-2 was a given. It was at this point that I cautioned everyone to remain realistic about the team, and maintained that I felt 6-6 was likely. http://mgoblog.com/diaries/mid-season-analysis-how-are-we-doing
Far fewer member made predictions, but the general attitude in the comments was, "You're an idiot, Illinois is garbage, you're an idiot, we finish 8-4 at least, maybe 9-3, you're an idiot, neg-bang neg-bang neg-bang neg-bang neg-bang.... you're an idiot."
Again, this sentiment was based on emotion. Everyone was still high off the win over Notre Dame and the gutsy performance against Indiana. Nobody was taking into account that of 5 wins, two were against Michigan Directional, one was against Indiana, and the lone quality win was against Notre Dame.
'Lo and behold, after drubbing the blind kids from Delaware and losing to an Illinois team that either A.) finally played up to their potential, B) isn't very good but killed us anyway, or C) all of the above people are again reacting emotionally.
So, just for a moment, calm down everyone, and realize that our team is right where we thought we would be. If we beat Purdue next week,like I think we will, that will put us at 6-4 with two tough games against Wisconsin and Ohio State, teams that should beat us if they play well. So we end 6-6. Right about where 2/3 of us thought we would be.
As I said last June, "This [6-6] might seem bad, but considering a brand new scheme on defense and a reliance on young players, it’s not too bad. Especially when a few games could go our way (ND, Iowa, and MSU) and quickly change it to a 9-3 record. Realistic expectations are important."
Well, ND went our way, I was wrong on Penn State, and we almost pulled it off against Iowa and Michigan State. We have a new scheme on defense with limted talent, and our young players are playing like young players. 6-6 is realistic, and let's not lose our shit if that happens. The nature of college football lends itself to highly emotional reactions, and that's okay. But if we slow down enough to use calm objectivity, we see that we're living up to expectations.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:57 PM ^
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Michigan has played four common opponents from last year so far. Notre Dame, Illinois, MSU and PSU. They have scored fewer points than the 2008 Sheridan/Threet teams in three of those four games (ND being the exception).True. But,
- M scored 20 @ East Lansing this year and 21 at home last year; this year's margin of 6 was less than last year's 14.
- M scored 17 @ Penn State against a defense which gave up just under 14 pts/game in the regular season. This year PSU is giving up less than 10 pts/game (without subtracting turnover pts), which is what M scored. This years margin of 25 was less than last years of 29.
- The Illinois game was two completely different halves: M wins the first 13-7, loses 2nd 31-0. The game can't and shouldn't be ignored, but I don't think its useful in trend analysis. This years margin of 25 was the same as last years.
November 3rd, 2009 at 8:04 PM ^
November 4th, 2009 at 12:41 AM ^
Michigan has played four common opponents from last year so far. Notre Dame, Illinois, MSU and PSU. They have scored fewer points than the 2008 Sheridan/Threet teams in three of those four games (ND being the exception).
November 4th, 2009 at 11:11 AM ^
November 4th, 2009 at 11:49 AM ^
The quarterback play was a huge improvement when Tate was healthy and opposing defenses didn't know what to expect. The OL has played well at times, against Iowa and first half against Illini, other times they've looked overmatched. The last two games have seen several passes dropped that should have been caught. As sad as this is for me, it must be much worse for the players and coaches.
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:57 PM ^
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November 6th, 2009 at 9:47 PM ^
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