Rankings Roundup after Conference Champions Week: Special Bowl Edition
I don’t know about you, but I can’t believe it’s that time of year already. The regular season is over and conference champions have been crowned. Now we just have to bide our time watching fascinating matchups like Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion in the Famous Toastery Bowl (yeah, I’d never heard of it either). The 68 Ventures Bowl between South Alabama and Eastern Michigan could also be very titillating, especially if they add 1 more venture before the game.
Anyway, the final CFP rankings are out so let’s take a look, shall we?
RANKINGS COMPARISON: CFP, SP+, FEI
Michigan is officially the consensus #1 team in the country, sitting atop the CFP, SP+ and FEI rankings. It seems pretty noteworthy that every other team in the CFP top 4 is ranked lower in the advanced stats. Washington is #11 to SP+ and #8 to FEI, Texas is ranked #6 in both, and CFP #4 Alabama comes in at #7 (SP+) and #11 (FEI). In their places, the advanced stats have some combination of OSU, Georgia, Oregon, and PSU.
It’s kind of humorous that SP+ gives Georgia a 5.8 point advantage (29.5-23.7) over Alabama on a neutral field. Unfortunately for the Dawgs they played in Atlanta. SP+ also thinks that ‘Bama and FSU would be a coin toss (23.7-23.7) but the CFP committee took care of that one for us.
Here's another way of looking at this.
Michigan stands alone at the top of SP+ and FEI and its closest peers have all been knocked out of the playoffs. Two were taken down by Michigan itself (OSU and PSU), one was knocked off by Washington, and another fell victim to Nick Saban’s annual deal with the devil. And then there’s poor damn FSU.
BOWL MATCHUPS: SP+ AND FEI
So at this point, the CFP committee has done its job (by jobbing FSU). The semifinals have been set and the NY6 pairings have been determined, so let’s take a look and see what the advanced stats have to say about these matchups. First, SP+
Poor damn Oregon. They already lost to Washington twice this season and now they have to play its twin in the Fiesta Bowl.
And now for the FEI.
Anything you find interesting? Any matchups you’re particularly interested in? (I’ll try to get a complete set of graphs out for every bowl once the matchups have been determined. I can’t wait to see what bowl MSU gets.).
SP+ AND FEI OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SCORES)
Standard interpretation applies:
- Top-right: Good at offense and defense
- Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
- Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
- Bottom-left: Not so good at football
Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean that category.
I can’t believe we’re missing out on the USC-Iowa matchup, but nevertheless some of the B1G bowl matchups look fascinating according to SP+. Who’s ready for LSU-Wisconsin or Tennessee-Iowa?
Here’s the graph for the FEI
LSU-Iowa would’ve been fascinating. What did we do to be denied this opportunity?
SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Box and whiskers again. I like that it clearly shows Michigan as an outlier from the rest of the B1G.
And here are the ratings from FEI
Thanks for reading.
Go Blue!
December 4th, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
Three observations:
First, it's interesting to see so many UM fans panicking over playing Bama given the fancy stats. It seems like UM should cruise to a National Championship given the teams in the playoffs. Of course, there is that pesky history of UM sucking ass in bowl games to contend with.
Second, OSU is probably going to murderize Missouri who is extremely mediocre. I think the Tigers best win is over 8-4 Tennessee. The only concern would be will McCord play QB for them? If not, will Brown be healed up and available or will OSU have to go with a 3rd string QB?
Third, Oklahoma has to be pissed at not being selected for the Fiesta Bowl. Is there a requirement that a Group of 5 team has to be invited to one of the New Year's Day games? The matchup between Oklahoma and Oregon would have been compelling. The matchup between Liberty and Oregon...is not.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
There is a requirement the highest ranked G5 team gets a NY6. The Pac-12 should be particularly frustrated that they drew the G5 team both last year and this year (USC vs Tulane which they somehow lost lol). Feels like they could have rotated the G5 to Missouri or someone else.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
Thanks for the confirmation re: G5 requirement.
Honestly, I would expect Oregon to be thrilled at drawing Liberty. This makes the Fiesta Bowl practically an auto-win scenario for them. I doubt anyone at Oregon is going to care that their win came over a crappy Liberty team when they are admiring their Fiesta Bowl trophy in the football complex. Or course, if they should actually lose to Liberty...well, that would be pretty embarassing.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Oregon has one of the best offenses and liberty one of the worst defenses, this should be a slaughter. Like 72 points for Oregon
December 4th, 2023 at 1:19 PM ^
Yeah, I came to say the same thing. Don't understand all the "sympathy" for Oregon. They drew (on paper, at least) the easiest matchup of the NY6 games, a team with a worse offense and a much worse defense. Unless they get gutted by opt-outs, they're on track for an easy win. Especially given our bowl history, I'd much rather have that than draw an opponent we have a good chance of losing to...
December 4th, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
Feels like they could have rotated the G5 to Missouri or someone else.
Did that have to do with bowl conference tie-ins, more than anything?
December 4th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
No - the Peach, Cotton and Fiesta had no Bowl tie-ins that they were beholden to.
Those 6 Bowls had to take OSU, PSU, Oregon, Ole Miss, Missouri and Liberty (in some combination) as those were the top 5 + top G5 in the rankings. Those HAD to be the teams. But no team was tied into a specific Bowl.
They would avoid PSU/OSU and Ole Miss/Missouri as match-ups (though that wasn't strictly required). Which meant that there were 10 possible match-up combinations. Ohio State vs Oregon, Liberty vs SEC and Penn State vs SEC seemed best to me, but that's not the route they chose.
(OSU does play Oregon next year, so maybe that was part of it --- but PSU doesn't, so they could have just swapped OSU & PSU, and still had Liberty vs SEC)
December 4th, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
Regular Season OSU would destroy Mizzou. OSU without MHJ and McCord and maybe some other guys on Offense and Defense might not murderize anyone.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
It's going to be fascinating to see Ohio State play that game without their QB, and most likely their best receiver.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
McCord put himself in the portal. One would assume that means he's not gonna be playing QB for The Ohio this year or any other year. Not even sure of the rules on that if he still can.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
The non CFP bowl games are now “meaningless bowl games.” So…I would suspect many departures for NFL prep, etc., and the teams we saw all season won’t be the same.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
One observation: If the bowl committee is choosing teams on apparent strength instead of record why aren't PSU and OSU--or Georgia, for that matter, in the mix? None of this has ever, to my recollection, looked like more contradictory crap.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
Third, Oklahoma has to be pissed at not being selected for the Fiesta Bowl.
Didn't you see the video of Oklahoma's watch party? Before the reveal, they were chanting "Give me Liberty or give me death."
December 4th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
Alabama is just really inconsistent which drags down their fancy stats. They played their best game vs Georgia. Played well against Tennessee and LSU, but also played very bad against Auburn and Arkansas.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^
I see the last several days as an unequivocal win for our championship probability added. Alabama and Washington knocked off two massive threats to how Michigan plays. Georgia in particular seemed the biggest threat. We will still have to beat two very good teams in January. We can absolutely do it.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
100%. Alabama isn't a bad draw. It wasn't like we were going to get Vanderbilt and Baylor. This is for the championship, of course we are facing a solid team.
Wait until next year and we have to play 4 games to win it all.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
Great data as always.
I'm not counting any chickens - and respect Bama. But, I also like Michigan's chances.
Go Blue!
December 4th, 2023 at 9:21 AM ^
Alabama ain't Georgia y'all. Rejoice!
December 4th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
I still can't help but wonder how the hell Bama beat Georgia in Atlanta which is basically a de facto home game for the Dawgs.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
If I'm remembering correctly, the UGA radio guy (was listening on SiriusXM while driving to a watch party) said that Bama has won 17 straight games in Atlanta. That's astounding.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
Yep - they've won 17 in a row (after Saturday) in Atlanta. The last time they lost there was the 2008 SEC Championship Game, when Florida had Tebow.
The 17, for what it's worth. Not many of these games are push-overs:
- 2009, regular season vs Virginia Tech
- 2009, SEC title vs Florida
- 2012, SEC title vs Georgia
- 2013, regular season vs Virginia Tech
- 2014, regular season vs West VIrginia
- 2014, SEC title vs Missouri
- 2015, SEC title vs Florida
- 2016, SEC title vs Florida
- 2016, CFB Semifinal, Peach Bowl vs Washington
- 2017, regular season vs Florida State
- 2017, National Championship vs Georgia
- 2018, SEC title vs Georgia
- 2019, regular season vs Duke
- 2020, SEC title vs Florida
- 2021, regular season vs Miami FLA
- 2021, SEC title vs Georgia
- 2023, SEC title vs Georgia
December 4th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
9-0 in SEC title games in the past 15 years. Goddamn.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Georgia always caves mentally against the tide in Atlanta. It's a thing. Dawg fans here have the worst bpone when playing them there.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
The Union Army burned their respective cities to the ground the same...
Too soon?
December 4th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
One play, series, and game at a time. Let's go 1-0 the next time Team 144 takes the field.
Go Blue.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Iowa-Tenn is going to be fascinating even though Iowa-USC would have been must-watch TV.
Joe Milton has been decent this year, but the stats paint too rosy of a picture IMO. "Fuck it and chuck it" is death against Iowa's defense.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Joe Milton is going to be assaulted in ways he hasn't dreamed of by the Iowa defense...
December 4th, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
These fancy stats make me more optimistic…and happy. We appear to be the clear best team according to fancy stats, though obviously that’s not a guarantee of anything. I’d like to know how our fancy stats positioning compares to UGA’s the past 2 years, etc.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
I did this a couple of weeks ago because I was curious as well, so I already had it graphed. Michigan would basically be similar to Alabama's 2017 championship team.
All playoff teams since 2014 (can you spot the one that doesn't appear to belong?)
All CFP finalists
All CFP winners
December 4th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
If M '23 (or M '24) is close to AL '17, I am concerned. The CFP winner's graph shows that to win with mostly defense (and a relatively lackluster offense) the unit has to be generational. Michigan will need a good to great offensive performance together with their usual defense to pull it off.
There are lots of nuances as well. Thanks for doing this Blue@LSU. Much appreciated.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
Michigan is getting very close to the 2022 UGA defense, which had a rating of 6.7. Michigan is at 7.4 right now. Their overall ranking of 32.1 is still lagging Georgia's overall of 37.3
December 4th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
Who’s #1 in toughness?
December 4th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Hmmm... I'll give this a try! Since Michigan is the consensous #1 in everything else, and beat the previously top rated tuffest team in the country, I'd say Michigan is now the TOUGHEST team in the country.
#1 BABY!!!! GO BLUE!!!!
December 4th, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
I like Penn St v. Ole Miss from a competition standpoint, and I'm assuming that Dart is going to play for Ole Miss.
I think the Orange and Cotton are going to be hot garbage piles of games with all the opting out by all teams involved. I'm looking at the OSU - Mizzou line and it's changed from OSU -6.5 and now it's OSU -3
December 4th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
I would like to see fancy stats vs actual bowl and playoff results from previous years. Last year I bet we had stat advantage over TCU. Unfortunately, Michigan's history is to play like crap in bowl games. I hope Harbaugh is will keep the team focused this year.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
Driving 6 1/2 hours home from Indy yesterday.... we had our fill of talking heads discussing, disecting and criticizing the CFP picks.
I'll say this, there was 0% chance the SEC was going to be left out, because the ncaa is up the sec's ass.
It is absolute bullshit that FSU got shafted. Undefeated Conf. Champ.... nothing more to say. The committee always uses that phrase "complete body of work" ok, that's the entire season, not just an injury that happened three weeks ago. FSU won their next two games, still undefeated. If you're using the 'complete body of work' then you have to consider bama needing a miracle to beat a shitty, unranked auburn team, as well as squeaking by unranked arkansas and A&M....
I truly hope Michigan beats 'bama by a comfortable margin, shutting up the sec clowns.
Should GA have been #1? Was GA the best team, or were they going to be #1 until they lost, because they were defending champs? If GA was ranked 2 or 3 and bama beats them, does bama move from 8 to 4? FSU, without their starting QB was still in the top 4, they win two more games and get booted out? the selection committee, not unlike the B1G, went against their own guidlines to get to their desired outcome, its total bullshit, just like accounting.