Bill Connelly's B1G East Preview is up
If you're not familiar, Bill Connelly is the guy who provides the SP+ data for college football. He has been doing season previews for each conference, and he just dropped the preview for the B1G East. Here's the link ($, ESPN+).
Since it's a paywalled article, I will point out a few highlights:
- OSU is still ridiculously good.
...while Smith-Njigba will need a dance partner [at WR], Ohio State has a whopping 10 former blue-chippers to choose from. (Marvin Harrison Jr., who also scored three TDs in the Rose Bowl, is perhaps most noteworthy.
- Michigan is good, but there's still a massive gap between them and the top 3.
...it should be noted what ranking fourth actually entails this year. The top three teams -- Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia -- are so far ahead of the pack that the Wolverines are as close to No. 23 Florida as they are to No. 3 UGA.
- Mel Tucker LOL.
Both the contract and the hype have set off my "Too much, too soon!" alarm bells, though. Even an 11-2 season took him only to 18-14 as a head coach, and Michigan State was probably a little too successful in close games last year.
- Noah Vedral is somehow still the QB at Rutger.
Sixth-year senior [!!] Noah Vedral returns at quarterback but ranked just 111th [!!!] in Total QBR last season.
- Corum and DJ Turner made Connelly's list of 10 players he likes, and Zak Zinter was an honorable mention.
- Michigan's preseason SP+ rankings are: #4 overall, #6 offense, #20 defense.
Good thing the one position under Harbaugh that seems to reload quick are the edges. We already got a look at Ross’ replacement in Colson. I think he will be just fine. The question mark for me is the secondary and the coaching. Really hope Minter can come in and build on what Mac did last year.
I think all we can ask for with this team, with the returning talent we have and the way the schedule sets itself up, is that we are at least 10-1 heading into Columbus with a shot at winning the B1G East on the line. Would love a win in Columbus but it’ll be tough. So amped for the season, Go Blue!
Agree with this sentiment. The one loss cannot be to MSU, however.
If Michigan loses to MSU but beats OSU, I will take that all day, every day.
I'd of course rather beat MSU as well, but losing to MSU but beating OSU is, to me, very much encapsulating the idea of "lose the battle but win the war." If I had to pick one to beat, it'll be OSU a hundred times out of a hundred.
OSU always is and always will be the measuring stick. Always the most important game. Always the roadblock between Michigan and whatever its postseason goals are. MSU will never be that.
This is the point that always gets lost: "Always the roadblock between Michigan and whatever its postseason goals are. MSU will never be that."
Michigan beating MSU is great for bragging rights, but losing that game is often irrelevant to our overall goals. Go back to any number of seasons and swap an MSU win for a loss and an OSU loss for a win and we've likely got quite a few more championships.
Having said that, they are hardly equal competition.
I pretty much agree with the preview. We could be very good. The offense should be ahead of the defense and I'm praying for some bad weather in the Midwest right around November 26. OSU is loaded as always. It is weird how much the perception of the program has changed in a year. As always, I can't wait.
i want them to beat AN ohio state more this year than i did last year because i live in ohio and the collective bitching, moaning and griping would be awesome to see and hear for the next year.
A few things I've observed overall in the past few months...
1. We all assume that JJ will be amazing. We don't have any meaningful sample size to make us think that he will not only be dynamic (just a few plays to show it) but also a WINNING quarterback. The guy that doesnt throw that dagger INT... doesnt fumble .. doesnt duck out of bounds on 4th and 5. I'm not saying he isn't, but there's a perception that its simply a matter of time, not a matter of if, and that makes me nervous.
2. I think its very possible we are in stroud's head. Sure, he'll come out guns blazing and theyll come out swinging in C-bus.. but will this Michigan team withstand that, and fight through it .. putting a little doubt in their collective (and stupid) heads.
3. There is a lot of.. "msu got lucky last year" and it was all because of walker. Maybe true. But, they brought in a lot of guys.. again. Also, tucker is 2-0 against harbz. I think a lot of people are HOPING that msu falls back to a 7-5 type season, but as a prediction.. duno how to feel about that. Results were there last year.
Interesting that he thinks Maryland has the second best group of receivers behind Ohio State. And by 'interesting' I really mean confusing how he thinks they are better than Michigan's receivers. I guess I'm not familiar enough with Maryland football...
Maryland has 2 WRs who are on the NFL radar. Rakim Jarrett is considered to be a breakout candidate to get drafted on day 2.
Michigan has Ronnie Bell, like Maryland's WR Dontay Demus, who is coming off from a lower-body injury but they didn't really have anyone who is a legit #1 option.
Michigan needs other WRs to step up to be a credible threat. Anthony showed flashes. Johnson is JAG to me. Roman hasn't done great when given the opportunity last season. Henning is who he is at this point.
Upvoted for the info about Maryland receivers. But that’s a pretty tough Roman Wilson take considering the guy played with a cast on his wrist for a bunch of last season.
Considering how bad the vibes are around here, it's amazing to realize that we're #4 overall S&P+
If the bad vibes are 7-5 or 8-4, they're overly pessimistic, but I think the #4 ranking is overly optimistic.
Oh I don't disagree with the #4 being overly optimistic, but we have 2017 season (or earlier), vibes around here.
We just won the M-Fing B1G championship.
Harbaugh was named NATIONAL coach of the year
Yet this place is dire, and I saw an article this morning about Harbaugh being on the hot seat.
BPONE may be more intense than ever, maybe because we have something to lose again? Idk.
- Michigan's preseason SP+ rankings are: #4 overall, #6 offense, #20 defense.
If we have the #6 offense but just the #20 defense, I don't see that equaling #4 overall.
There are usually a couple teams with both highly rated offense and defense. Then a lot of others with one rated highly and the other not as much.
For example, Football Outsiders F+ rankings from 2021 (which I can access without paying) has:
Georgia, offense #3, defense #1, overall #1
Alabama, offense #2, defense #6, overall #2
Ohio State, offense #1, defense #42, overall #3
Michigan, offense #5, defense #13, overall #4
Oklahoma State, offense #38, defense #2, overall #5
Notre Dame, offense #20, defense #11, overall #6
Utah, offense #7, defense #21, overall #7
and so on.
Ok St. Was #2 defense last year? Damn.
Oklahoma State, offense #38, defense #2, overall #5
Oklahoma State? #2 defense? Am I reading that right? Since when does anyone in the B12 play defense?
You’re not mathing correctly.
We have a good chance of heading into the game 11-0. There's no doubt in my mind that the offense and defense will be good enough to do that. Both units are at least very good.
The question is how do we matchup against ohio in November.
No real way of knowing that -- just have to take care of business, support the players and coaches as much as we can, and see how our team performs on Nov 26.
Wasn't the offense supposed to carry the defense last year too?
Yep. Beginning of the year I don't think people thought we are going to have a defense that can stop OSU with just 27 points. And then that happened.
I love Bill Connelly but hate that he went behind the paywall. I spent hours every week on his old website, whose data seems to have disappeared or is buried under ESPN’s terrible video-oriented website which I subscribed to solely to read Connelly.
I’ll also point out a bit of laziness on his part: he says “Braden McGregor did well in a backup role last year”. IIRC, Braden barely got his helmet on last year and looked weak in the spring scrimmage.
I really enjoy Connelly's general analyses, but I've learned over the years that when he names non-starters he's usually basing that off recruitment rankings, some box score reviews, and whatever a Google search tells you about them. So yeah, that felt like a throw-away line without much context. Last year I think he did something similar about Giles going to UW, where he thought that was a major loss as a receiver despite anyone who had watched those games knowing that wasn't the case.
When isn't OSU really ridiculous good?
A nice breakdown and about where I'd predict UM, though I do think they'll struggle to be the #6 offense without Haskins. But if they finish another year in the top 10 I'd be really happy and there absolutely is a path to the playoffs even if they can't take down OSU in Columbus.
As good as Hassan was Corum and Edwards are more explosive and talented. If they live up to expectations the running game should be even better.
The question is at QB. JJ obviously brings more to the table, but Cade just wins. Training camp will be interesting.
If jj is a hit and they can actually use the read option this could pretty easily be the best Michigan offense statistically in at least 20 years when you combine the skill and relatively soft schedule. Just pray we open it up and use the tools.
Ohio has been just like the succesful teams in the $EC for 50 years, at least, they should just join them already.
Michigan has the best rb duo since Wheatley and Timmy B. Could make the case for Howard and Williams or A train and Fargus, but I like Edwards/Corum more.
This rb duo isn’t getting enough hype here. Edwards has potential to be one of the best players in the country regardless of position.
He has too much faith in Ryan Day.
Agree with the overall sentiments that this team needs to head into columbus 10-1 with a shot to beat osu. While the schedule sets up nicely I do see 11-0 to be a pretty tough ask. Just feels like it's likely for a "slip up" to happen like it does almost every team. That said, 11-0 is damn doable!
Don't see an "air raid" persay but this has the best opportunity to be an insane 1-2 punch of run and pass as I can recall since Henne's senior year.
You've got 4 games to really get your crap together before heading to Iowa.
This offensive line is going to be a freak show this year too.<-- that's a compliment
I think the DB's will be solid, linebackers solid to above average but not great. DL a huge ?