247 Updated BBall Rankings for 2022
Guards:
Jett - #44 (up 23 spots) - feels about right with him flashing more as an on-ball threat, but lacks the top tier positional size/athleticism to be a top-20 type
Dug - #76 (down 24 spots) - feels about right and lines up with my projection over the last few months
Wings:
Jarace Walker - #12 (down 5 spots) - shot not where it needs to be, but a no-brainer instant impact player at college level so still a legit 5-star
Cam Whitmore - #30 (up 79 spots!) - I told you so; will likely rise more
Eric Dailey - #48 (down 13 spots) - probably a bit too low given the class is weak; still a 25-50 range is within reason
Tyrell Ward - #52 (up 55 spots) - feels about right; good athlete with upside, but not great at any one skill facet
AJ Casey - #58 (down 30 spots) - I subtly warned yesterday that he was a bit overvalued as a top 25 type; this seems more appropriate. Still like the upside here as a multi-year college player
Ty Rodgers - #70 (down 1) - feels about right; good athlete with a glaring hole in his game
Gregg Glenn - #81 (down 26 spots) - feels about right, perhaps a tad too low; solid playmaking forward with a motor, but not good enough to be a primary on-ball option and jumper is below average
Colin Smith - #128 (down 16) - definitely too low; should be in the 60-80 range; above average for position at nearly every skill facet while being 6'7 - 6'8
Bigs:
Duren - #1 (up 1) - no explanation necessary
Lively - #3 (up 39 spots) - I told you so; will likely be #1 overall prospect for me
Kyle Filipowski - #40 (up 46 spots) - I told you so; still a bit too low
Clingan - #53 (same) - feels about right
Tarris Reed - #84 (down 5 spots) - have yet to see him vs real competition but feels too low
Dom Campbell - #132 (up 65 spots) - need to see him play live
Where does michigan stand on the Cam Whitmore recruitment? I feel like I've missed it. Thanks
Ask and you shall receive
https://twitter.com/endless_motor/status/1410283976359620614
Michigan really should put the full court press for him.
I need me some Cam Whitmore
Who are some players that Michigan is monitoring, but haven't offered yet?
Cam Whitmore - should be #1 overall target on the wing board IMO, staff will pick up interest in July
Dom Campbell - skilled big/limited athlete that we are starting to show interest in
Ernest Udeh - athletic big; has been some contact, but no talks of a visit just yet
Yohan Traore - athletic big; still monitoring
Wow Ernest Udeh just moved up from #163 to #22
What about PF Eric Dailey from IMG? His recruiting profile shows Michigan as "warm", but I haven't heard any mention of him.
We've offered. Michigan will be in the hunt if he decides to go the college route. He has ties to the Spanish pro league because of his father.
Is there a center prospect that you think Juwan might snap up out of the blue, as hes not on our public radar yet ? There seems to be a ton of top center prospects that aren't leaning anywhere, yet we have publicly shown an interest.
My top choice would be Noah Clowney from South Carolina or Kelel Ware from Arkansas.
Clowney from South Carolina? Too many bad memories.
Lively - #3 (up 39 spots) - I told you so; will likely be #1 overall prospect for me
This one is shocking for me. I think Lively is a great prospect and definitely a 5 star but #3 (let alone #1) seems crazy to me. I see him being an elite defender and rim runner who occasionally hit a 3, but his offensive upside and superstar upside definitely seem capped out.
Matt, do you see him as someone who could turn into an Anthony Davis type? I just don't see his ceiling ever being higher than some of the wings in this class or Duren
If anything I'd go the opposition direction. Duren is probably going to be a better CBB player if he goes that route. But long term, Dereck Lively the best HS prospect in America for 2022.
Duren is a non-shooter from distance, but is an outstanding passer that dominates the boards. But in a half-court setting, he's somewhat limited offensively. The big thing is he's only a legit 6'9 - 6'10.
Lively is a legit 7'1, is starting to hit triples at consistent clip, flashing a back-to-the-basket game, is probably the best rim protector and overall defender in the country. Good passer as well. His upside is absolutely tremendous, but I'm NEVER going to project someone as the second coming of Anthony Davis. When all is said and done, AD has a chance to be a top 10-20 player to ever walk the face of the Earth.
Fair enough, I guess I'm just iffy on Lively that high because he reminds me of a lot of highly ranked centers to come out recently who all end up having a similar role in the NBA, never really hit their max potential, and just slide right into the rim runner/protector role but don't expand beyond it. Guys like Mo Bamba, Jarrett Allen, Mitchell Robinson, Evan Mobley (in this draft). While Duren seems to have that body, strength and motor to make an impact like DeAndre Ayton or Dwight Howard and potentially stretch the floor as well
You absolutely have valid points there. That's part of the reason I enjoy this community so much. The posts here are often thought-based with assessments on skill facets/inputs rather than relying on numbers/charts exclusively.
To your point, there is a chance that Lively ends up in that mold of center. I'd feel better about Duren if he were 6'11, but at 6'9ish I have some concerns at the NBA level since he doesn't have a jumpshot at this stage of development. As you say though, the motor on the glass is impressive.
One of the things that makes me worry a little less about him being 6'9" or 6'10" is his wing span and hand size. I think both of those things combined with his strength, athleticism, motor make those couple inches almost negligible
FWIW, ESPN also just updated their rankings and they're for the most part similar with a few differences. The biggest is ESPN has Dug at #50 and Trimble way down at #82
ESPN has cut down a TON in the way of resources/manpower on the ground actually going to events. Personally, I don't put much stock in their rankings based on a lack of live evaluations.
Are you saying you're doing more live evaluations than ESPN? If so, that is really impressive.
That is exactly what I'm saying. I'll continue to die on this hill - I'm not smarter than anyone, what I am is someone that values live evaluation more than anything and will be diligent in doing just that.
I get my fair share of evals wrong just like every evaluator, but I'm adamant/confident in my assessments because I know I've put in the work to be informed. When I bring you guys scouting reports, there is legitimate work/thought/projection that goes into those.
Fuck yea Matt! Love your work and confidence!
Not doubting your work ethic. Just didn't think it was possible for one person to see more kids live than an entire company. That's awesome.
Is that a basketball-only thing with them, or is it football too?
It's both. They've gotta get the money from somewhere so they can keep paying Stephen A Smith to bloviate about the Euro Cup.
I can't speak intelligently with respect to ESPN'S football recruiting coverage, but I am confident in saying that I cover more live events in relation to ESPN's two-man BB recruiting team of Finklestein (he does evaluate live events, have to give him credit) and Biancardi (essentially just a media personality at this point).
Appreciate it, Matt! Always enjoy reading your work, and it's obvious you know your stuff. I get the sense ESPN is in the "recruiting" segment of the sports market simply because they want a presence and they want to create a narrative that brings viewership to their network. They don't actually put the time and effort in to evaluate prospects, but I can tell based on the granular detail you put in your summaries that you are out there truly evaluating.
I'm very excited for Isiah Barnes based on your analysis, and hopefully we land a couple of these rising prospects as well.
Thanks again for your work.
I'm excited for Barnes as well. Physically, he'll be ready to step on the court from day 1. The question is whether Houstan/Bufkin play well enough to keep him from getting spot minutes as a freshman.
ESPN also released their 2022 top 100 on that and dug is 50 on there now, actually moving up a little bit. No real appreciable difference in the 50-75 range in my eyes.
Matt, this must take LOTS of time. Forgive my ignorance, but is this your job or something you do on the side?
I know MGoBlog has other writers but b'ball recruiting seems a narrower—albeit important—speciality.
While I'd like to say it's a side job, the truth is I'm gone for 3 days per week from March - July and essentially on-call to all my subscribing coaches for the duration of the year.
But, who am I to complain. I literally get compensated to watch a sport I love and provide my evaluations regarding the same. It's a dream job.
Cool, Matt. Thanks for this answer, and for the answers & insights.
Nice. We need a Ttam ME for the football side of things given the way this blog is going. Brian will probably feel better about things if football is better this year, but it still seems his enthusiasm has waned, which is fine. It has for me some too as I've gotten older. My guess is we'll see Brian do the game columns and a few opiniom pieces here and there but maybe little more while doling out the work to Seth and hopefully someone else new. I guess Brendan but not totally sure what his role will be. Presumably he'll do the quick game recaps.
I hope the Michigan coaches are subscribing (and listening to you)! You provide us great content here. (I have to admit -- I selfishly wish that Michigan would pay you for early, exclusive access (or something to that effect) so that our competitors would not benefit to the same extent from your work!) Thanks very much to your contributions to the site (and to UM).
Thanks for your thoughts on these rankings changes. I value your opinion as much as anyone. Its incredibly impressive seeing guys like Bones Hyland and Tre Mann getting first round NBA draft buzz when years earlier you were pretty high on both guys. If I remember correctly, you were very high on Hyland as a potential late addition when Juwan took the job here and you said Tre Mann was one of your favorite guard prospects in the class before his rankings really blew up. Impressive stuff.
First, thank you for following my work.........to remember those evaluations goes back at least 3 years. I really appreciate the support.
Again, I get my fair share wrong, but I'm pretty confident in my ability to project because I put in the work to do so. I will put my hit rate up against anyone because of it.
The thing that makes me happiest though, is the ability to connect with you guys and enjoy the program's success on the recruiting trail and the court. At my core, I'm a Michigan alum/fan just like the rest of you guys + gals.
Your track record with this stuff has been pretty incredible. You predicted the Lively bump just like you did with Jaden Mcdaniels too. You are the reason I cant wait to see what Moussa Diabate can do at Michigan. You seem as bullish on him as any commit I can remember.
Agree. And everyone here should remember Diabate's path to committing if they doubt at all what Coach Howard is doing or how things may seem like they're going. Matt kept saying he was trending away from us and not likely to end up in the class. Then, whammy. In August we get the news he committed to Michigan. So, whatever happens, I have faith that the 2022 class will end up great for Michigan.
I've never seen anyone have as much detail as you about college basketball recruits. Even in the prime of the recruiting services, it didn't seem entire companies were as detailed and dialed in as you are.
How many are we taking in 22 ... five?
Cam, Jett, Dug, Jarace (not likely) and Lively (also a semi-long shot) would be awesome
We'll have 4 juniors and the 6 sophomores from this year's freshman class. If no one leaves, I think we can take 3. So that leaves one remaining spot? Then again, Jace and Jett could walk on as well.
But with attrition (Hunter, and who knows who else after this season) we can take that many more, we shall see
Matt EM, appreciate your informative post and involvement onMBB recruiting. You are the TomVH of basketball recruiting
If I can be half of what Tom was to MGo, I'd consider my tenure around here very successful. That dude was awesome.
Lots of "I told you sos".
Feels about right
Perhaps one can view that as being in poor taste. But I'll reiterate, I put in the work here. I'm not bringing the MGo community content that isn't thorough and projectable.
I have my misses, but I'll put my track record against anyone at any time. I'm not smarter than anyone, but my work ethic is great and I'm proud of it. My hit rate is no mistake.
I told you so.