Covid Report: Hope Flickers
Rumbles of another vote
Teddy Greenstein:
Just learned re: timing of the B1G vote ... will be this weekend “at the earliest” ... Sun or Mon possible https://t.co/HBZmxYmhF7
— Teddy Greenstein (@TeddyGreenstein) September 9, 2020
We've received some stuff on deep background that tracks with the above. Fall football is not out of the question if the point of contact testing infrastructure is able to ramp up quickly. The conference's response to some political grandstanding seems fairly hopeful:
Statement from #B1G in response to the letter from 10 political leaders from six states asking that the league reverses its decision to postpone the fall football season. pic.twitter.com/ElIvzMlI3m
— Adam Rittenberg (@ESPNRittenberg) September 9, 2020
Speaking of political grandstanding, the attorney general of Ohio:
“I think we have a cause of action” for violating contracts between the Big Ten and Ohio State and for illegal interference in a business relationship, Yost said on Wednesday.
“If these negotiations (over playing football) fall apart, we will be recommending legal action to our client, Ohio State University,” he said, adding that his office believes the Big Ten lacked the legal authority to cancel or delay the football season.
Par for the course in the most Ohio of states.
[After the JUMP: palpable point of contact progress.]
Nebraska has the technology
If this can be implemented conference-wide then football is a go:
… Huskers will conduct rapid-response, point-of-care antigen testing currently used in professional sports and soon to be implemented in the Pac-12, which last week announced a long-term agreement with Quidel.
Through a contract with Vivature, which has partnered with Quidel, Nebraska has already received 1,200 test kits. NU will get Quidel’s Sofia-2 Analyzer machine by the end of this week and expects to incorporate the antigen testing into existing testing protocols by the end of next week.
Having the materials in East Stadium, Lambrecht said, is “a huge advantage” for Nebraska.
Nebraska’s planning to accommodate its opponents, too.
“We’re building our protocol so that it can support two teams on game day,” Lambrecht said.
That might take a couple of weeks or a month but it should be feasible even for Rutgers, if Rutgers copies off whoever it's sitting next to.
RIP Jamain Stephens
California University of Pennsylvania lineman Jamain Stephens died recently. His death was initially reported as a COVID fatality but that was retracted:
"…in an effort to get the news out about his death in a timely manner, we mistakenly attributed his death without official confirmation on cause of death. We had obtained the information about his passing from close friends of Jamain, who reached out to us with the news. We apologize for this error, and this information has since been removed from our Facebook announcement dated 9/8/2020. At this time, we do not have official confirmation on his cause of death.”
FYI if you saw the original report but not the update, as is frequent on the internet.
The myocarditis number
There's a paper out of OSU about myocarditis. The N here is just 26, but for what it's worth:
Four athletes (15%; all male individuals) had CMR findings consistent with myocarditis … Two of these 4 athletes with evidence of myocardial inflammation had mild symptoms (shortness of breath), while the other 2 were asymptomatic. …
8 additional athletes (30.8%) exhibited LGE without T2 elevation suggestive of prior myocardial injury. COVID-19–related myocardial injury in competitive athletes and sports participation remains unclear.
I wonder if the latter number was the source of the mix-up where the Penn State doctor said 30-35% of covid cases resulted in myocarditis.
This study appears to be more about the MRI technique the doctors used and its potential to identify at-risk athletes than incidence rates—because a study about incidence rates with an N of 26 is useless. Also the paper pushes back on another paper that suggested two weeks of rest was sufficient:
A recent expert consensus article recommended 2-week convalescence followed by no diagnostic cardiac testing if asymptomatic and an electrocardiogram and transthoracic echocardiogram in mildly symptomatic athletes with COVID-19 to return to play for competitive sports.5 However, emerging knowledge and CMR observations question this recommendation. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging evidence of myocardial inflammation has been associated with poor outcomes, including myocardial dysfunction and mortality.6
So: myocarditis incidence is not huge (maybe), can show up in asymptomatic people, and isn't something that can be waved away in a couple weeks.
There will not be a monster tournament
Duke and other ACC schools were pushing a radical departure for the NCAA tournament wherein everyone gets in. The NCAA says nope:
"While all who care about the game are entitled to their opinion, and we'll always listen respectfully, at this time we are not working on any contingency plan that involves expanding the tournament field."
However they've got some doozy contingencies:
He also said the NCAA has explored the idea of using replacement teams to continue the tournament if a team is eliminated because of a positive test for COVID-19.
The prospect of an NCAA champion who lost in the tourney is on the table.
Hockey delayed
College hockey announced that the start of the season would be delayed until at least November. The NCHC has announced a November 20 earliest start date. The reason is the usual. Minnesota head coach Bob Motzko:
"Well, in November [the students] are all going home. All over the country they're going home, and they're going to be home for a couple of months."
It does not appear that financial concerns are going to be a hurdle for a sport in which breaking even is a great situation. The situation in the Big Ten might be one:
"There's some question marks coming from the Big Ten, specifically around football," said WCHA women's Commissioner Jennifer Flowers, whose conference includes Big Ten teams Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin. "As I told our coaches yesterday, to be really honest, the factors that are in play have absolutely nothing to do with hockey. … We're all very hopeful they have a plan to get football back, because that's beneficial for every other sport, including hockey."
John Buccigross has some more details about possibilities:
Expect NCAA to reduce the number of minimum games needed to make NCAA tourney, that will allow leagues to play league only or regional only schedules and still have tournament. The “big” schools are hoping to be tied into basketball. So when basketball starts hockey starts. …
Each league acting independently Possibilities:
Big Ten creating a bubble
Hockey East leaning toward in conference play.
Atlantic Hockey will start league play in January and will start non league competition in November. All are very confident in a season.
Tourney selection would have to change if some conferences are playing only league schedules. The Pairwise is helpless if there is no intersection between schedules—some would say it's kinda helpless even with the current level of nonconference play.
September 11th, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^
Start the damn football season. B1G Presidents need to swallow their pride - can't let the rest of the schools play UNLESS they come out with complete scientific arguments against it. PLAY BALL.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^
Can we all tap the breaks on "we've started the season"? A few games played, none within the Power 5 that are playing, have started yet. Talk to me in 2 weeks
September 11th, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^
Well, technically, no. College teams that play football are college teams that play football... 85 kids from one school is similar to 85 kids from another. So if two teams play each other, the season started.
September 11th, 2020 at 9:22 PM ^
“A few games played” is what I wrote. My point was the power 5 schools playing haven’t started yet. Talk to me in a few weeks when they do. We’ll see how many play and the quality of the product then
September 11th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
Exactly. Everyone keeps saying "focus on the science", and yet decisions are being made that are NOT supported by science.
There is ZERO evidence of any major outbreaks resulting from playing football (or attending for that matter).
If students can be in schools, they should also be allowed to play football, period.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^
Students also shouldn't be in schools. Making one stupid decision because you've already made another stupid decision and doubling down on both is not good decision making.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:17 PM ^
It's almost as if people have forgotten how exponential spread works. There has been 1 day of NFL games. Approximately 1 week of college football. If 1 person has the virus, he will pass it to R people. Now, fortunately, R has decreased because of social distancing and all the rest, but it's not zero. 1 becomes 2, 2 becomes 4, 4 becomes 8, etc. That's not noticeable after a week. Remember in February when Trump said 15 people had it and once they got better it was going away. And then remember what March looked like? See, we're still in February. We just don't know yet. Let's see how things look after 2-3 weeks of competition before declaring victory.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
Ok, while I sort of agree with what you are saying, what do you think all of these college athletes will be doing if there are no games. All of these teams are still practicing. It's not like the kids go to their parents basement and lock themselves in the laundry room. As long as they are being tested and being safe outside of the practice field it is really probably safer to practice and play games in front of few if any fans than to just send them home.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
They definitely won't be in a traveling party of 100+ people crossing state lines to go participate in a contact sport that puts them in contact with another group of 100+ people.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:40 PM ^
I think the first breakout in Italy started from a football match.
September 11th, 2020 at 6:42 PM ^
That's an exaggeration, but a Champions League match played in Bergamo (the epicenter in Italy) acted as a superspreader event.
September 13th, 2020 at 8:54 PM ^
Not to be all "Well, actually . . . " but:
Technically, the game was played in Milan, about an hour from Bergamo, featuring Atalanta, a Bergamo-based team who's stadium is too small for Champions League matches. BUT, everybody and their cousin was out in the bars in Bergamo watching the match, so the superspreader part still holds.
September 12th, 2020 at 12:06 AM ^
Lol. That there have hardly been any college football games played might be the reason for that, big brain.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:43 PM ^
Eight teams scheduled to play this weekend including TCU, SMU, Marshall, FIU, UCF and others will be sitting out due to COVID. If Tennessee or Oklahoma were scheduled to play they could be out as well due to high numbers.
It is clear that these teams have not done enough and I'm not sure that any of us have any information that says the B1G Ten would be different.
So at this current moment, I will not fault the leadership for protecting their student athletes.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
Super surprised these schools are in West Virginia, Texas, and Florida.
September 11th, 2020 at 1:56 PM ^
Waiting for the REAL dirt, from Sir Yacht.............
September 11th, 2020 at 2:11 PM ^
It will be depressing if Sir Yacht is somehow proven "right" in the end.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
Play the season while allowing any player to opt out while keeping their scholarship. Put in place strict protocols for safety, high school is playing with less safety standards.
At some point freewill kicks in. Let people make choices. I know someone who thinks sports should be killed for the year but has no problem walking the Grand Haven boardwalk without a mask.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
Might this finally be the year that hockey stops playing neutral site playoff games? Seems a lot easier to control movement and testing on campus.
As for rapid testing, I can't wait to see the response by students and faculty if the football team is getting those but not the general population.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:04 PM ^
Even if the new vote has a majority for the B1G season to start, Michigan and MSU will not be allowed to play football in the state of Michigan. IL and MD will be in the same boat. I guess we will watch some sort of B1G conference cobbled together by October 10th. This will really make us feel bad.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
Unless they compete with masks on and full body condoms.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:21 PM ^
The Lions, Bears, & Washington Football Team will all be playing in their own stadiums. Obviously, professional sports received exemptions from the limits. I imagine Michigan and MSU would not have any trouble getting something similar.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:52 PM ^
I find it odd that high school and the Lions can play, but UofM can't.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
If HS can play, college would be able to play.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
Uh, not sure why you say that. Michigan HS's are playing. Why can't colleges with the same restrictions (although I must admit wearing masks while playing is absolutely idiotic).
Maybe Gretchen realizes MSU is going to be dreadful this year and just wants to screw UM too.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
Not sure how to feel about the Ohio AG being named Yost.
I think it's pretty great, but not so sure.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
He's a plant, and he signaled it fairly obviously too - when referring to his client he didn't say "The" ohio state university!
Surprised everyone missed his trolling!
September 11th, 2020 at 2:46 PM ^
I would love the season to happen just safely, a revote is hope that could happen!
September 11th, 2020 at 2:49 PM ^
It feels like every week I hear about yet another vote that's going to kick off a season, then it gets bumped to the weekend, then next week, etc. I'm sure the presidents are talking, but I also have a hard time believing there has been some monumental shift in opinions by the presidents barring some equally-significant change in available technology. The rapid testing agreements are a step in that direction but those technologies were known to be in the pipeline for months; I doubt it wasn't considered as part of a return to play.
I assume we'll have football this year, as opposed to next year. Not because anything functionally has changed with respect to the disease but because at some point a loud group of people yelling at you will make you shift your opinion regardless of the merits behind the change. It won't likely be in less than a month, and we still have to address all of the different states and their rules regarding travel and competition.
I do hope that the level of protest against the "outrageousness" of players not being able to compete gets applied with equal measure toward the various player-led calls for changes related to licensing rights, health care support, ability to transfer, etc. If there was a sarcasm font I'd apply it to that last sentence, but what the hell 2020 has been weird enough so maybe people will surprise me.
Finally, the myocarditis studies continue to be all over the board. I did see a story about a 14-year-old football player in GA who went into the ICU because of COVID-19-related myocarditis, so it's definitely still a concern that can affect anyone (not just linemen, as is often the refrain).
September 11th, 2020 at 3:26 PM ^
If there was a sarcasm font I'd apply it to that last sentence
I don't have Comic Sans on my system, but maybe this might work instead.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:07 PM ^
Ugh so Michigan would have to play without Mayfield and Thomas but of course OSU is not missing anyone. Awesome. Hopefully the start of the season can be delayed until sometime in November so OSU cannot make the playoff.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:13 PM ^
I would not even worry about that at this point--there is a *lot* that can (and likely will) happen before anything resembling a season happens.
Not to say that any of it will be *good* for Michigan, mind you, but some of it is likely to be bad for Ohio State as well.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:31 PM ^
OSU starting OL Wyatt Davis just tapped out today to get ready for the Draft.
September 11th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^
If they started in the fall could they opt back in?
September 11th, 2020 at 3:22 PM ^
How the heck can I guy named Yost be an Ohio AG?
September 11th, 2020 at 3:29 PM ^
While I'm excited that more (long overdue) testing options are becoming available that might enable more sports to open up....I do wonder sometimes if all of the effort being put forth to host football games is worth it. While I'd love to watch Michigan play soon....I'd also like my kids to go back to school and my employees to have full access to the office. Perhaps some of this rapid testing effort could be used elsewhere before it enables football......
Fascinated to see how the college stuff shakes out in the coming weeks. I hope everyone is safe....but going to be interesting to see how it works. Why the NCAA hasn't done anything to mandate transparency of testing data, game postponement rules, player return to football after positive tests I'll never know......well, actually I do - the NCAA is worthless and powerless.
September 11th, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^
Agree completely. I would love to see a venn diagram of the people who have been shouting the loudest about needing to keep the economy open regardless of COVID against those who shout college football has to happen. If the economy was really that important not a single rapid test should be used to facilitate a sporting event without fans.
Yes a lot of money runs through sports, but as a market it would be a small niche compared to restaurants, colleges & universities, manufacturing, etc.
September 11th, 2020 at 8:17 PM ^
As usual, it’s all about the money. College football makes big money. Our kids attending school don’t. Hence the disparity in resources available.
September 11th, 2020 at 3:32 PM ^
Hope flickers, uncertainty rumbles, and we dodge the incoming flurries of maybe-possibly-Ithink-whoknows.
Comments