Michigan vs. Louisville: Your Initial Thoughts (9:23p tip)
I know some of us are still coming down from that fact that we're even IN the Championship Game. But hey, we're not done yet. Survive and advance, we've got business to take care of on Monday.
That said, what are your early thoughts about the matchup?
But we need our best games from our top guys to do it.
GoBlue!
That stuff Wichita St did? lets do that
Except for that last bit. Don't do that last bit.
choke? Yeah...lets not do that
Hence screw Louisville.
On a more serious note - they are similar to Michigan in many ways, they had 8 guys averaging 5 or more points a game (incl Ware so its 7 now) so anyone can go off like we have had in this tourney where people take turns (tonight Caris, last game Spike and Stausk, first two games THJ). The center matchup vs Dieng (2nd leading scorer) will again be huge but McGrary is playing at an All American level right now. After matching up with the Kansas center and more than holding his own I have confidence this should be a back and forth and at worst wash.
Russ Smith is the man and he is a lot like Burke but probably more careless with the ball. And he is only 6'1. Trey has struggled against big guards like 'Cuse had tonight and Oladipo. I think you will see the normal Trey back out there Monday which can only be good.
Siva is like a faster but shorter THJ - he is going to hoist up a lot of shots but you don't know what you get from game to game. But tough as a defender.
Benahan is a good forward and could hurt us as the #4s from other teams have been very good on offense as our forwards are not great defenders. So I'd expect him to outperform (he averages 10 a game)
If we get some sort of combination of 20 points out of GR3, Stausk, Caris, and Spike and 12-15 out of MgGrary and a higher % shooting from THJ we should be in good shape solely on the fact Burke's matchup is far more favorable here. He could not drive AT ALL tonight due to the defense of Syracuse and the pick and roll with McGrady was also silenced. They have been stellar together in the tourney even when Burke's shot has been off - the penetration and dish has been there.
Russ Smith looks nothing like 6'1". He looks about 5'10" out there. I want to see him side-by-side with Burke...and we will see him side-by-side with Burke.
Smith and Siva are super fast, which definitely presents defensive match-up problems for our guards. Then again, I think we can post up Hardaway all night long if Siva is locked up on Hardaway.
The wild card...will Louisville play zone again? The post-game Pitino inteview indicates that he's completely worried about his guard foul trouble w/ limited depth due to Ware's injury. We might not have seen the last of a 2-3ish zone this tourney.
That's okay, I'm sure we didn't impress them with our awful free-throw shooting and panicky ball movement against a press by a team that doesn't press often.
We have more talent than they do at pretty much every position... We'll also have a size advantage in 3 or 4 positions.... To top it off, Louisville is at its best when they run the ball and we've destroyed pretty much every team that has tried doing that. With the emergence of Mcgary we have scoring at all five positions and they always have 1 or 2 guys who are offensive black holes... Shall I continue listing stuff? I think this is a match made in heaven for us. Lil Bros are already giving us the championship and putting money on us to beat the spread.
Louisville is good but we've just got some magic right now. All Louisville is riding is their backup point guards broken leg. We've got a great shot. I love that we're still gonna be the underdog
My initial thought is "NCAA, why do you play your biggest game on a Monday night when I have to work?"
After that I think the game will come down to guard play. Burke cannot have a game like tonight if Michigan wants to win. He is going to have to get to the basket and create. If he can do that Michigan will win the game.
My thoughts exactly..i have to work 3rd's right now I don't even get to watch any of it.. MF'er..
Gotta wear ear plugs all night during break..
call in sick..imo
needs to have a great game breaking the pressure. And Stuaskas was non existent today after a breakout performance against Florida. He needs to hit a couple shots. I think we win though. Free throws were pretty concerning in this game...I thought we were going to 'Kansas' the game away from the line
71-68
We need to make our fee throws down the stretch because I think those will be huge this game.
However I think the shockers exposed the main weakness of louisville today by making them shoot threes. Also the sockers showed for the most part of the game, that louisville thrives off of turnovers, which it seems how they generate most of their points, I think we win in that category since we dont turn it over often
Also I like the press match up, we proved that we can beat the press effectivly and they have two towers on the post, well we proved we can beat a team that had a seven footer.
I like michigan in this game by 5 or so points.
The Big Lebowski (1998)
The Dude: Walter, ya know, it's Smokey, so his toe slipped over the line a little, big deal. It's just a game, man.Walter Sobchak: Dude, this is a league game, this determines who enters the next round robin. Am I wrong? Am I wrong?
Smokey: Yeah, but I wasn't over. Gimme the marker Dude, I'm marking it 8.
Walter Sobchak: [pulls out a gun] Smokey, my friend, you are entering a world of pain.
The Dude: Walter...
Walter Sobchak: You mark that frame an 8, and you're entering a world of pain.
Smokey: I'm not...
Walter Sobchak: A world of pain.
Smokey: Dude, he's your partner...
Walter Sobchak: [shouting] Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a shit about the rules? Mark it zero!
The Dude: They're calling the cops, put the piece away.
Walter Sobchak: Mark it zero!
[points gun in Smokey's face]
The Dude: Walter...
Walter Sobchak: [shouting] You think I'm fucking around here? Mark it zero!
Smokey: All right, it's fucking zero. Are you happy, you crazy fuck?
Walter Sobchak: ...It's a league game, Smokey.
+1000 to you sir
I think the excitment went to there head and mayb all the awards Trey won kinda distracted him a little. I think theyll be prepared and ready to go to take down the Cardinals!!
GO BLUE!!
Anyone else worried that Burke may be feeling the effects of that back injury and flu virus? Sure, tonight's game wasn't a good matchup... but he still missed shots and didn't seem to have the "spark" he often does.
Of course he was suffering from the flu last Friday night, so there you go.
Nope. He struggles against length. When Indiana put Oladipo on him, he was neutralized. Same tonight. The Syracuse defense is anti Burke - he thrives on the driving and dishing and you cant do that against the zone they play. They also play a lot of pick and roll with McGrady and there was almost zero of that tonight. So Burke's two main ways of running the team were eliminated by the style of defense. Louisville plays VCU-lite style defense but with way more talent and speed. Burke is an excellent ball handler and breaking down that style with two short guards he is facing will be way better for him.
When Burke had the ball at the top of the key, the front two of the 2-3 zone were pretty much neutralizing him every single time. Let's face it, Burke has been making jaws drop all season with those possessions where he'd dribble around at the point until the shot clock hit 7, drive the lane, and then make something happen. That wasn't there against Syracuse. Besides his shot looking consistently long, there weren't too many typical Trey Burke looks tonight.
I think what we need to take from this is that he managed a good game, owned the transition game in getting the ball down the floor, and didn't do anything egregiously bad. It wasn't a typical Trey Burke game, but I think what we can take from this is Burke doesn't necessarily need to score to put this team in a position to win.
Our best offensive looks from a set offense all night came with McGary getting the ball at the top of the paint and essentially running the offense from the center of the floor. Not only was it tough to even get the ball there, but it seemed as if McGary was the only one who could get the ball in that situation and make something happen. The contrast between, say, Mitch and Horford from that spot was staggering.
There's the whole rusty after a break feeling we saw a bit against SDSU and KU to be included plus the fact that Cuse's D is really good. Maybe some combination of illness, rust, and Cuse.
But Louisville is the real deal. I had them pegged to win the title in my bracket. Trey Burke is going to need to be Trey Burke, McGary needs to continue to dominate the glass, the bench needs to contribute like it did tonight, and Stauskas can't go cold again. If all these things can come together, we have a very real chance of winning a title on Monday night. I wasn't overly impressed with the way Louisville played tonight. Either that, or I'm not giving Wichita State enough credit.
I won't make any predictions, but Beilein will have this team ready.
But they DO play a 2-3 zone. Did you watch the 1st half Wichita St. game? Luckily, it's not their specialty and they don't play it as well as Syracuse (who does?).
It's going to be the toughest game yet, obviously...but I love the fact that Burke gets to go against smaller guards and THJ can shoot and penetrate vs. small guards.
I like that McGary's already played Withey and he should be fine down in the post vs. another great defender. I don't think they've seen that kind of energy and activity in the post that Mitch brings.
I see a tight, back and forth game but I see Michigan running away with it in the end.
The only thing that could change that in my mind and Louisville offense. They're good, but they're not great. If they're struggling offensively we could REALLY expose them. They won't be able to press and we love to run. I'm not saying it'll be VCU bad, but if they're not making shots, it could easily get to double digits for us.
michigan by 20.
Monday night is all Little Caesars and Dominos for me.
It should be a really fun game to watch, with a lot of offensive highlights. I just hope Michigan plays looser than they did in the second half of tonights game. If they do, they win going away.
Smith is too quick for Burke (I think Trey is a lot quicker than they like to admit)
Michigan will have no answer for Siva as another ball carrier. (Side note: Siva runs really upright, it looks weird)
Has anyone watched our tournament games??? IT DOESNT WORK
Louisville has faced 1 kenpom top 20 team in the tournament and they played that team with a huge home court advantage. Michigan has faced 4, including Kansas which was basically a road game. Louisville almost lost to a 9 seeded Wichita St. team that ended up in the final 4 because they were in a terrible bracket. The pressure is all on Louisville. This is a team that almost lost to their arch rival Kentucky at home and that was a terrible Kentucky team.
Dude, come on. You were going strong until the Kentucky statement. Kentucky was waaaaaaay better than Penn St. And it was an unpredictable rivalry as you said. Regular season doesn't matter anymore.
Penn State has nothing to do with Kentucky. Not sure where you are going with that. My point was Louisville was under a lot of pressure to beat Kentucky and almost lost to a bad Kentucky team.
Looking at the stats for the tournament, these two teams have put up very similar numbers, but we've played a much tougher schedule with 3 teams that were 1 seeds during this crazy season (Syracuse had it locked up but lost before that week's poll came out I believe so I'll count them). I think our confidence is as high as a team's can possibly be at this point, and Louisville just got dominated by a 9 seed for 36 minutes. On the other hand, we could be emotionally drained from all those games, but I don't think so.
Louisville has better players than Syracuse, but the matchup against Louisville is probably an easier matchup for Michigan. Louisville is a combination of VCU/Florida, but with a legit shot-blocker in the middle.
Should be high scoring. Burke should have a much better game. Michigan has to survive the first five minutes of the game against Louisville, then survive the last five minutes. I honestly expect Michigan to win the middle portion of the game against Louisville. Will Michigan play with pose against the press at the beginning of the game? Will Michigan be gassed at the end of the game, and succumb to the press?
1) I think these are the best two teams in the tournament. No flukes, no outrageous luck or injuries to get either team here, and this wasn't a year when the two best teams met in the regional finals or semifinals. Nice when that happens.
2) I like the match-up. Louisville would have lost to the Shockers if they hadn't been able to force the Shockers into like 7 TO in the last 7 minutes. I don't see us getting victimized like that late. I think our guard play is about even, but I'll take McGary over any other college front-court player right now.
3) Our defense has been getting better and better. We haven't fallen asleep on D since the early part (well, the early 37 minutes) of the Kansas game. I think we will D up Louisville at least as well as Wichita State did.
4) Our offense is deeper than theirs right now. So is our bench. Yes, Luke Hancock, blah blah blah, but Caris + Spike + Morgan + Horford all made significant contributions.
5) They've got the intangible Ware thing going on. That stuff does matter. But I really don't think it will be enough.
I'm not predicting anything for fear of a jinx, but this is not a game where I'm thinking to myself, "Yeesh, this could be a scary one." If I had to choose a team from the field of 64 or 68 to play for the NC, Louisville is not the last team I'd pick. I can think of at least a handful that would be worse, imo, for us to face than L'ville, and we already beat one of them.
GO BLUE