Why Michigan could make the Fiesta Bowl.
Even if Michigan doesn't make the Rose Bowl, we could end up in the Fiesta Bowl. I know there is a lot of football to be played, but none of these things are even unlikely to happen.
1 Kansas State 10-0 Wins out, goes to NC.
2 Oregon 10-0 Wins out, goes to NC.
3 Notre Dame 10-0 Wins out, replaces Oregon in Rose Bowl.
4 Alabama 9-1 Wins out, goes to Sugar Bowl.
5 Georgia 9-1 1 will get BCS at large.
6 Florida 9-1 1 will get BCS at large.
7 LSU 8-2 1 will get BCS at large.
8 Texas A&M 8-2 1 will get BCS at large.
9 South Carolina 8-2 1 will get BCS at large.
10 Florida State 9-1 Wins out, goes to Orange Bowl.
11 Clemson 9-1 Loses to South Carolina, falls out of top 14.
12 Oklahoma 7-2 Plays OSU, Baylor, and WVU. Loses 1 and falls out of top 14.
13 Stanford 8-2 Loses to Oregon, falls out of top 14.
14 Nebraska 8-2 Wins out, goes to Rose Bowl, or loses to WI and falls out of top 14.
15 Texas 8-2 Loses to KSU.
16 Oregon State 7-2 Loses to Oregon.
17 UCLA 8-2 Either beats USC and loses to Oregon, or loses to USC and possibly Stanford.
18 USC 7-3 Same situation as UCLA.
19 Louisville 9-1 Wins out, goes to Orange Bowl as last BCS pick.
20 LA Tech 9-1 Wont climb high enough.
21 Michigan 7-3 If wins out, goes to Fiesta Bowl.
22 Rutgers 8-1 Loses to Louisville.
23 Texas Tech 7-3 Chance could win out and jump Michigan.
24 Ok. St. 6-3 Chance could win out and jump Michigan.
25 Washington 6-4 No one else matters.
Assuming that the Rose Bowl picks ND to replace Oregon. the Fiesta gets the next two picks. The will obviously take an SEC at large. No chance they take the Big East champ. That leaves another at large. There are rules in the BCS to prevent the Sugar Bowl from having to take Michigan to prevent a rematch, so the Fiesta takes Michigan and Sugar takes another choice, leaving FSU vs Big East in the Orange Bowl.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:10 PM ^
It's difficult to imagine a scenario where we don't leapfrog LA Tech, UCLA, Oregon State, Louisville, Texas, and Stanford by winning out and beating undefeated Ohio in Columbus. That puts us at 15th. Even if/when USC upsets ND they'll go on to lose to Oregon the next week and we'll jump them at 14th. I'm also expecting Oklahoma to lose to OKState. OKState almost upset KState on the road, and Oklahoma has terrible defense. That'll put us 13th. In the last week Clemson and South Carolina, and FSU and Florida play each other, plus whoever doesn't lose in the SEC East will play Alabama so we could potentially jump 3 more spots, but I'm only counting on 2, putting us at 11th.
Still, we must beat Ohio.
November 15th, 2012 at 5:20 PM ^
Would USC beating ND hurt M? With the computers being a significant part of the BCS ranking, would a ND loss hurt M because we played them and our SOS would be lowered?
November 15th, 2012 at 3:12 PM ^
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November 15th, 2012 at 3:12 PM ^
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November 15th, 2012 at 3:14 PM ^
Nice assist. Almost Trey Burke like!
November 15th, 2012 at 3:16 PM ^
Great advice, and yet you locked him in. Priceless.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:16 PM ^
Props to Turtleboy. Turtles gotta help each other out.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:13 PM ^
So is the assumption in this scenario that the Fiesta Bowl could be Michigan vs SEC At-Large?
November 15th, 2012 at 3:33 PM ^
November 15th, 2012 at 5:03 PM ^
November 15th, 2012 at 5:58 PM ^
much cooler apparel for us to buy.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:16 PM ^
You're missing a wildcard: the bowl game will be Denard's last game. That plus a (potential) LSU matchup in the Fiesta would be tough to turn down, considering the storylines. Just make the top 14. And beat Ohio, obvs.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:51 PM ^
What reason does the nation have to care about Denard Robinson's last game? I know we all make him out to be the greatest thing ever, but the collective nation couldn't care less. The fact is, Denard is a 2010 story, the country has Johnny Football now. And earlier this year they had Geno Smith. And in 2 weeks they will have someone else. The truth of the matter is, Denard isn't and hasn't been in the national spotlight day in and day out since the first 5 weeks of 2010. He isn't a Tebow or a Vince Young, he doesn't have the national cache that michigan fans like to think.
Additionally, other than Michigan vs the Fighting Leslie Miles' (another Michigan-centric storyline btw) what national interest is there to a 3 loss Big Ten team (see: BIG TENNNNNN) playing a team that gave Alabama all it could handle. Michigan isn't the only team that travels well, and this year there is no way a 3 loss Big Ten team gets an At large bid over a 3 loss Oklahoma or a 2 loss Clemson.
November 15th, 2012 at 4:28 PM ^
"this year there is no way a 3 loss Big Ten team gets an At large bid over a 3 loss Oklahoma or a 2 loss Clemson."
There is if 3-loss Oklahoma and 2-loss Clemson aren't in the top-14 of the BCS. Also, what's the difference between 3-loss Oklahoma and 3-loss Michigan? Both lost two games to top-5 opponents, and Oklahoma's third loss would be to a team worse than Michigan's third loss. Plus Michigan would give OSU it's only loss, while Oklahoma's best win would be... Texas?
November 15th, 2012 at 5:37 PM ^
I realize it could happen if those teams aren't available. My point is that people will fudge their votes enough so that Oklahoma or Clemson are in the Top 14, not because of some disdain for Michigan, but rather because of the media perception of the Big Ten.
I completely agree that there is no difference between 3 loss Oklahoma and a 3 loss Michigan. I think we played ND tougher and didn't have them at home and our Nebraska loss carries the * of Denard being hurt. The problem is not what you or I think, its the media perception of the Big Ten and like it or not the conference's OOC losses killed that perception this year. Thats the reality we face and that is why Michigan will not leap-frog a 2 loss Clemson (with both losses to top 10 teams) or a 3 loss Oklahoma.
November 15th, 2012 at 5:38 PM ^
Another Clemson loss and their computer numbers become probably lower than Michigan's. They would lose at least I would say 4 spots in the human polls if they lose. Oklahoma with another loss I don't think is going to get the benefit of the doubt from either the pollsters or the Fiesta bowl. The Fiesta bowl has no reason to be loyal to the Big12 after they left them for the sugar
November 15th, 2012 at 5:39 PM ^
2-loss Clemson is our best bet. They've beaten exactly no one, and the computers hate hate hate the ACC.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:18 PM ^
What does an MSU fan do after they make a BCS game? Turns off his xbox.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:33 PM ^
November 15th, 2012 at 4:53 PM ^
You mean the team that beat Alabama?
November 15th, 2012 at 3:39 PM ^
This only happens if Oregon moves past KState. If KState stays at #1, the Fiesta scoop up ND.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:42 PM ^
November 15th, 2012 at 3:51 PM ^
one of the othe bowl games is going to take the Big East champ???
The Orange Bowl has the last selection this year. It's almost guaranteed that it'll be ACC Champ vs Big East champ cause no other bowl is going to take Louisville/Rutgers/Cincy.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:23 PM ^
So what are you saying excactly? There are only 4 at-large teams who can go. Just because the Fiesta picks a different team doesn't mean the 4 that picked are going to be different, with a few exceptions.
November 16th, 2012 at 1:09 AM ^
1. The Orange Bowl is almost guaranteed to get stuck matching the ACC Champ against the Big East Champ.
2. Michigan could find themselves in a bind if Kansas St finishes 1 and Oregon finishes 2. There's so many scenarios that can play out, but if the Fiesta gets ND to replace KState and Alabama wins the SEC, the open slots become Rose vs Big Ten, Fiesta vs ND and Sugar vs Ablama. The Rose isn't going to want an all Big Ten match up and neither the Fiesta or Sugar will want a rematch. Michigan's best hope in this case is that after ND gets one at large and you take out the SEC teams due to no more than 2 teams per conference that there are only 3 remaining at-large possibilites. UM would get in by default. If there are 4 at large teams available for 3 slots, UM probably gets the shaft.
November 15th, 2012 at 5:53 PM ^
If K-State stays first and the Fiesta grabs ND and no second Pac12 team is eligible (which is looking very possible) the Rose Bowl would probably take the second SEC team, either Tex A&M or Florida.
That would leave the Fiesta bowl with Clemson-ND if Clemson is top14. If Clemson isn't who does that leave them with? An OK rematch? A Michigan rematch? Louisville?
November 15th, 2012 at 6:14 PM ^
If the Fiesta grabs ND and Alabama wins the SEC, it'd be interesting. I'm guessing neither bowl would want a UM rematch but if the SEC has a bunch of teams in the Top 14 there won't be many available at-large teams.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:42 PM ^
just ordered my Fiesta Bowl tickets.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:43 PM ^
Beat Ohio in Columbus and I really don't care what happens after that. Been 12 years since we've won there, last win in 2000, 38-26.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:54 PM ^
drew henson naked bootleg. i remember it like it was over a decade ago.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:49 PM ^
It doesn't appear there are any rules preventing the Sugar Bowl from taking UM again. I doubt they'd want a Bama-UM rematch though.
Taken from the BCS webpage:
After completion of the selection process as described in Paragraph Nos. 1-4, the conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings, taking into consideration the following:
A. Whether the same team will be playing in the same bowl game for two consecutive years; and/or B. Whether two teams that played against one another in the regular season will be paired against one another in a bowl game; and/or C. Whether the same two teams will play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years; and/or D. Whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on Fox and the bowls.
November 15th, 2012 at 3:56 PM ^
I understand they are not required too. But their is no way the conferences are going to allow a Michigan vs Alabama rematch to take place in the Sugar Bowl.
November 15th, 2012 at 4:08 PM ^
A&M has a pretty favorable schedule down the stretch and should finish 10-2. Fiesta Bowl will probably take them given their previous Big 12 ties and proximity to Phoenix and are probably hoping to pair them against Oklahoma.
Need to root hard for Oklahoma & the winner of this weekend's Oklahoma St./Texas Tech game to lose.
November 15th, 2012 at 4:30 PM ^
Texas A&M will be a hot, hot commodity for the bowls to fight over. High powered offense, exciting team, and Johnny Football. Plus, the fan base is closer.
November 15th, 2012 at 5:42 PM ^
I don't think either Tech or Ok St. has a shot at the top 14. Tech plays Ok St. and Baylor to end the season. neither game is going to help them that much. Ok St. does play OK, but a Michigan win over OSU would be more impressive and Michigan is already ahead of them.
November 15th, 2012 at 4:12 PM ^
Would love this to happen.
Michigan just needs to take care of business (beat Ohio in the land of the turd-coolers).
Any chance someone came to their senses and made the Fiesta play the game on a weekend?
November 15th, 2012 at 4:25 PM ^
Hard to see a 3 loss team in a BCS - has this ever happend? As much as it would be cool, I think we are looking at a Florida Jan 1 Bowl.
November 15th, 2012 at 4:38 PM ^
November 15th, 2012 at 4:41 PM ^
November 15th, 2012 at 4:44 PM ^
...then beat Ohio.
Worry about the rest later.
November 15th, 2012 at 4:56 PM ^
Beat Ohio etc.
November 15th, 2012 at 4:58 PM ^
Is there a limit on how many teams from a particular conference can go to a BCS bowl? You've got like 6 SEC teams.
November 15th, 2012 at 5:28 PM ^
Two teams.
November 15th, 2012 at 4:58 PM ^
Is there a limit on how many teams from a particular conference can go to a BCS bowl? You've got like 6 SEC teams.
November 15th, 2012 at 5:28 PM ^
It could happen. I'd love to see it happen. Hopefully Michigan can pull out these mext two games, and we'll see what happens. A lot of football to be played yet?
November 15th, 2012 at 5:31 PM ^
The only reason Illinois went in 2007 was because ohio was in the national championship and they were ranked ahead of us
November 15th, 2012 at 6:50 PM ^
But what does that have anything to do with it? If a 9-3 team is in the top-14, then yes, they could very easily go. There might not even be an option.
November 15th, 2012 at 5:32 PM ^