ESPN: Early Week One Preview UM/WMU
Brian Bennett Previews UM vs WMU. Nothing earth shattering, gave UM 91% chance of victory.
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/28197/early-week-one-preview-michigan
9/3/11 - vs Western Michigan (7-6)
The Opponent -
Western Michigan was very MACesque last year. They were 0-2 against the only two AQ teams they played (MSU and ND). Despite being bowl eligible, they were sitting at home for the holidays, instead of losing massive amounts of money on unsold bowl tickets. Their leading rusher last year was a freshman, Tevin Drake, who accumulated just over 400 yards on the season. In his defense, he averaged 10 yards per carry in the six games he played. That being said, it should be no surprise that WMU found themselves ranked 93rd in rushing yards. When our quarterback quadruples the yardage of a team's leading rusher, you can't be considered 'run committed'. WMU has a senior kicker in John Potter who has started since his freshman year. Last year he was 50/50 on his PAT attempts, and 10/12 for field goals.
Key Matchups -
WMU QB Alex Carder vs. Michigan Secondary
As a sophomore, Carder put up solid numbers (3,334/30/12). He ranked 14th in the FBS in passing yards, and had a higher QB rating (140.6) than many established QBs, including Taylor Martinez, Christian Ponder, and Blaine Gabbert. Carder is also a threat to run the ball, but does not earn the label of true dual threat QB. He recorded 6 rushing TDs on the year while averaging 10 attempts per game. Michigan is returning a defensive backfield from last year that conjured words like 'sieve' and 'urgh'. Being ranked 108th in scoring defense tends to lend itself to some colorful language and broken remote controls. The hope here is that an unheralded group of underclassmen can blossom into an average unit, or at least one that only has a two digit scoring defense ranking. The Ed Reed clones are still a few seasons away. Other than the return of Woolfolk, the biggest thing Michigan has going is the fact that Carder will be without his top two receivers, both recording over 1,000 yards last year. Between these two, Carder loses over two thirds of his sophomore production. Expectations should range from 'Not there yet, but showing progress' to 'Sweet baby Jesus, not again'. Michigan should benefit from the fact that they don't have to learn a new system, as evidence suggests they never actually learned a system last year. We will give up enough yards to add a bit of tension to the fanbase.
Michigan vs. Michigan
There should be some concern as to how the Wolverines handle a whole new regime. At this point, most of these kids have been forced to learn at least two or three systems. Hopefully, WMU is enough of a cupcake that we can overcome some errors caused by growing pains. However, the team must not look past the Broncos to the first night game in the Big House. Michigan returns a stable of WRs who are servicable, but not stellar. Combine that with the fact that WMU lost both starting safeties, and Denard should have a nice soft opening game to go through the motions. Despite his raw and unbridaled talent, Denard has been prone to mistakes. Couple that with the fact that he is lining up under center, and he could end up looking a lot like last year's Michigan team as a whole - flashes of brilliance followed by rumbles of incontinence. No, I did not mean to write inconsistency.
Prediction -
Michigan wins a tight game, 30-21. This will not be a crushing win like the UConn game last year. In the end, Hoke will leave the Big House with his first win, without revealing too much of his hand. Be prepared to watch a vanilla offense with a few botched QB-center exchanges sprinkled in. In the boldest of bold predictions, I suggest that during the first few games, we will watch the offense regress towards the median while the defense progresses towards that same median. You can call me Nostradamus next January.
That's a wee bit more descriptive than Bennet's prediction.
I agree that it won't be a blowout, as they have to learn. Hopefully the learning curve comes quick and is already in place for ND
As to your score projection, that sounds about right. I don't think we can expect Michigan to blow anyone out other than poor EMU this year...and blowing out EMU almost seems mean.
Nostradmus would have been able to see that one of those WMU receivers would have been given a 6th year of eligibility, per the ESPN article.
"Did you hear I finally graduated?
Yeah, and just a shade under a decade too. All right.
You know a lot of people go to college for seven years.
I know, they're called doctors."
I think our offense will be good this year, just different. The big thing I read in that article was that the Broncos had to replace a lot of their O-line.
obviously does a little homework, not just the typical 'these are the headlines I read and I'll just base my whole argument over Lindy's preview' or something along those lines. BUT it's a long, long, long way off and probably a bit early to start predicting anything.
I kinda like the idea that Hoke would rather win this thing quiet and perhaps even ugly, and save the big statement win for the Irish. But we're going to see a lot of men with a lot to prove... and Western isn't exactly going to have much to study.
I think our O-line overwhelms their D-line, and we cruise to a low scoring victory; 21-10 with a few missed FGs on our end. Hoke ball reverts us back to the days where we just line up our much bigger, talented players and ram the ball down the field and control the clock. Big plays will come on playaction rollouts if any. Im guessing Denard gets kept quiet in order to unleash the beast on ND again. Should be a Hopkins/Shaw party in game 1.
I don't see this being altogether too close.. I think manball v 1.0 runs the ball down their throats mixed with some Denard play action / omgbbq and we win by 21ish..I think Stephen Hopkins is in the perfect situation to break out.
This sounds more like it. I also think the defense will come out hungry to prove it's ready to get back to Michigan football. 30-21 would bother me.
we cruise to a low scoring victory; 21-10 with a few missed FGs on our end.
Why assume that we'll suck on field goals? Most teams do not. Placekicking is getting better and better across the country, with many teams featuring a kicker with 50+ yard range. For some reason, Michigan has been well behind the curve for a long time in this area.
This is an area where I'm curious to see the impact of the coaching change, because I've got to believe our kickers were not in the right frame of mind last season. They may benefit from having new ST coaching.
Because what we saw in the spring game did not provide any inspiration the kicking game will be any better. The only hope is Wile coming in and winning the job.
By the same token, do you expect Denard to have a 40% completion percentage this season, because he had one in the spring game? The whole team has the summer and fall camp to improve, kickers included.
Why do you assume we'll be better? Our starting kicker is most likely going to be a freshman and if its Gibbons, what has he proved that makes you think our field goal kicking is going to improve?
I am not assuming anything. I don't know how we'll do, which is why I'm surprised that people assume a repetition of last year. Even by our crappy historical kicking standards, last year was unusually bad.
As far as Gibbons goes, all we know is that he fielded numerous scholarship offers two years ago. He probably has the ability. The problem is probably psychological. As for Wile, so what if he's a freshman? We have at times had freshmen come in and kick well - Rivas did it in 2003. In any event, I think it's likely we'll be better than 4-15, though how much better, I don't know.
I agree in the fact that i think we will improve in the kicking game, but that's just my opinion. I really don't see how we could do any worse, but nothing i have seen from last year or this spring has made me say that were going to have a better kicking game this year. Here's to hoping that Wile comes in and does well as a freshman similar as to how Hagerup came in last year and played well as a freshman punter.
What evidence do you have to support any improvement in the kicking game? We still don't have a special teams/kicking specialist on the staff. We used a scholarship on a kicker that didn't pan out last year ... so it could happen again. Don't get me wrong, I hope and pray that improvement happens. However, last year was disgusting. Even the kick offs were pathetic. We have a long way to go just to be average. We might even have a long way to go to become below average. Right now we are bottom feeders in the kicking game. That being said, I'm sure Hoke and Co. realize this as well. Hopefully they have kids that are capable of making the improvement.
put 21 points on us.......i really dont want to think about what ND could do with their vastly superior scheme and athletes.
For the record...i dont think the Western game will be all that close. My guess would be something like 38-10.
Right, just like last year. I'm sure Toledo thinks they're scary too.
Don't forget we have Mike Martin against a new interior line. If there's a game for him to Hulk Smash and revitalize a defence, this one is it.
I might as well throw my score prediction out there...........Michigan 34 Western 13
That's 2 MADE FGs.
Bold my friend. Very bold.
I think he was going more with a missed field goal and a missed extra point rather than 2 made field goals. No one is that bold yet.
Ahhhhh yes.....predictions and summaries of our first game. OT is nearing an end, thank God.
Their kicker scares me.
You guys that think this could be a reasonable score, must be thinking like 5 wins total this year. If we can only beat the 2nd/3rd/4th worst team on our schedule by 9 points @ home.....
I think this game will be similar to the last time we played WMU, score wise.
You're only one off of my prediction.
Not necessarily. It's the first game of the year. You tend to see closer games than you may see if the game was played in week 7. I do think the score will be more like 31-14.
Wow! ONLY 91% they might pull off the upset lol
I'm thinking 31-17 Michigan. Something comfortable, but not a laugher. I'll be pretty surprised if it's closer than 10 points. Regardless, I don't think that the game will be much of an indicator for the season.
Brian is going to cry due to the boring show nothing "Oh my God, the old days" O. UM will win the day shutting down in the third followed by scrub time scores by WMU. This gives ND nothing to see on tape while they have a dog fight with Skip Holtz and South Florida. Mean while the next week Manball/Spread is unleashed on the world.
UM 28( D scores one TD)
WMU 17 (7 scored vs backups)
a nice test to our defense. I think our DE's and DT's will have him under pressure for a good part of the game, and that will create some key turnover's. I could see this game being somehwere in the neighborhood of 38 - 17. WMU's defense will have difficulty stopping Denard when he gets going.
Didn't really know where to post this but I wonder how much of an impact Hoke's off-the-charts passion for Michigan is going to have on the field.
From the Flint Journal yesterday:
"To drum home the Michigan tradition to his players, Hoke said he begins every team meeting with four greetings.
The first is "good afternoon," or whatever time of day it is. The players respond in kind.
The second is, "championships." The response is "42," the number of Big Ten Conference championships won by the Wolverines.
The third is "years." The response is "132," as this will be the 132nd year of Michigan football.
The fourth is "beat." The response: "Ohio." Not Ohio State. Ohio.
"It's four simple letters," Hoke said. "It's just Ohio. And they had to use one of the letters twice."
At other coaching stops the guy refused to wear red, even when it was his current team's color.
He may not be in the same mold as a Belichick or a Bill Walsh, maybe more like a Mike Ditka. But Ditka coached a lot of good teams and won a lot of games including the Super Bowl. Hoke and Mattison will make our defense respectable again by the middle of the season, maybe earlier. I just hope Borges can make good use of the talent we have on offense.
41-7...and we all start talking national championship.