The Official Rivals *Rating Prediction Thread
As most know, Rivals is releasing its stars this upcoming week. Now, I know stars aren't everything (see Braylon, Omameh, the soon to be breakout class of 2011, etc., etc.) but they do make excellent cocktail party conversation and provide a basic measuring stick for recruiting success.
In addition, most of you know that in contrast to Scout, Rivals is known to be less Midwest friendly (some might say less Michigan friendly but I think that was overblown) so I am guessing that Rivals will not provide Michigan the same number of 4-stars as Scout has.
I do think guys like Wormley, Day, Pipkins, Reeves, Morgan, Burbridge will all be 4 stars.
Here's my guess for current Michigan Commitments. Please don't confuse my prediction with my assessment of these players' actual ability:
Bolden - 4 star
Braden - 3 star
Brown - 3 star
Funchess - 3 star
RJS - 4 star (top 100)
Ojemudia - 3 star
Ringer - 3 star
Ross - 4 star (top 150)
Stacey - 3 star
Williams - 3 star
Silent Commit DE from Novi - 3 star
Think that Funchess could be a 4, as well as Ojemudia and Ringer.
I'm not too sure about Ojemudia being a 4 star. If anything he might be a very high 3 star on the brink of a fourth star. There is also the matter of his position, I think where Rivals projects him can affect his ranking.
I'd put Funchess and Ringer as 4 stars as well.
I would say Funchess has the best chance with Ringer and an outside shot of Ojemedia getting that 4th star.
Braden, stacey, and williams are the only people that I will think will be 3*'s. Which is totally fine to me, as it was proven on this very site, midwestern OL are normally underrated.
I believe your predictions are dead on, we already know that Bolden, RJS, and Ross will be 4 stars. I just don't think that anyone else has the offer lists that rivals would consider to be of 4 star caliber. I think all of our recruits are amazing but this is just how rivals is.
Brown will be a 4 star I believe.
has the best chance to hit the 4 star out of my prediction. I thought about that for a bit.
Bolden - High 3/low 4
Braden - 3
Brown - High 3/low 4
Funchess - 3
RJS - 4
Ojemudia - 3
Ringer - 3
Ross - 5
Stacey - low 4/high 3
Williams - 3
Godin - 3
going with the 5 for Ross. Ross is my favorite in this class so far.
OSU and ND offered with the wealth of defenders in ohio this year and ND looking for maybe 1 in the entire class, plus Monte Kiffin and a Nebraska offer; If there is a 5 star in michigan this year, and I think there is, he is it hands down.
I would agree, but Rivals has already released their 5 stars. I was under the impression that they would start there and as they begin to evaluate more they will bring more players up into 5 star category.
I thought they always added a couple when they did their first 150 list? Either way he is a 5 star in my book
Basing this off of offer lists and the fact that I think the top 7 or 8 players in Michigan will be four stars I'll go with this
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<br>Bolden - 4 star
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<br>Braden - 3 star
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<br>Brown - 4 star (he has some quite good offers and is top 247)
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<br>Funchess - 4 star (6th or 7th in Michigan)
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<br>RJS - 4 star (top 100)
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<br>Ojemudia - 4 star (the other of 6th or 7th in Michigan)
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<br>Ringer - 3 star (could easily be a 4 star but I think the offer list might stop rivals from giving him it)
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<br>Ross - 4 star (top 75)
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<br>Stacey - 3 star
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<br>Williams - 3 star
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<br>I think we will have at least 4 four star guys. Pretty much any of the guys besides stacey, braden and williams have a very good chance for one. Either way I am really happy with how this class is going. But I'm still hoping to see some good star rankings for this class and end up a highly ranked class even if it's only for good press.
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I generally agree with your predictions, but I think that at least 1-2 of these guys that you have ad 3 stars will get 4.
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<br>Regardless, I am loving this class because it is building quality (high 3 star or better) depth at key positions and taking talent directly out of Sparty's hands. Our defense is going to be stacked at LB, DE and DL for years to come.
Bolden - 4
Braden - 3
Brown - High 3/Low 4
Funchess - High 3/Low 4
RJS - 4
Ojemudia - High 3/Low 4
Ringer - High 3/Low 4
Ross - 4
Stacey - 3
Williams - 3
Godin - 3
Most likely that Brown will be a 3, with Funchess, Ringer, and Ojemudia having the best shot for a 4th star, in that order.
If Ojemudia ends up as only a 3-star then he has one of the most impressive highlight reels I've seen from a 3-star. He physically dominates blockers and has good speed. I think when it is all said and done, he will be a 4-star, even if he's a 3 star in the initial rankings. I also think Ross could be a 5-star.
I personally would give Ross a 5th star, but I just don't see Rivals giving him that extra star based on his lack of ideal height for a 5 star linebacker. Wishful thinking though!
Maybe. According to Scout, he is the exact same height and 5 lb lighter than Jelani Jenkins, who was the #1 WLB in the country in 2009. But, Rivals has Ross an inch shorter than Scout and had Jelani and inch taller than Scout. So you may be right.
Apart from James Ross who might get the 5th star, do we have a good shot with any other 5 star rated player at this point?
Personally I'd love to see us land a 5 star rated OL
Dunn and Kiel are the two that stand out right now.. On the OL, I think Banner, Diamond, and Simmons could all potentially get 5*.. I'm just not sure how we stand with them
I personally don't think Richardson will be a 5-star, but he certainly has a 5-star offer list. It doesn't get much better than Alabama, USC, Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame.
stars regardless of he ratings. No worries.
Godin is not a sure get I go to Catholic Central in Novi and he likes MSU a ton
I dont normally knock on recruits but Godin made it sound like we disrespected his entire family when Hoke didnt immediately extend an offer. If you love Mich so much and wanted that offer so bad then get it over with and commit and stop being a prima donna.
Then stop posting here and go make sure he is a sure get
Im trying bro I really am. If I had to guess Id say he will go blue but im not sure of that at all. Anyways he is a damn good football player and would be a good get for Michigan.
Godin was not named one of the team captains for his upcoming senior season. Also, I've heard a lot about his attitude. I know a lot of guys that currently play or played this past year at CC.
Your right he wasn't selected as a team captain
why does everyone think our recruiting is going so well when most of these recruits are 3 star recruits?
Because they aren't. Look at scout and 247. We have I think 4 and 5 four stars respectively on those two sites. I think we have at least 4 and most likely 5-6 on rivals
Sorry I meant 5 and 6 four stars per 247 and scout
the only ACTUAL evaluation that has been done (Scout), most of them are in fact, not 3 stars, they are 4 stars...
thanks, i just saw a lot of 3 stars but maybe i was trippin.
the title of the post indicates this was a prediction thread lol. No harm done.
Offer list of players.
that Rivals and Scout generally don't rate committed kids as high as comparable uncommitted kids, for whatever reason. So don't be surprised if our commits are on the lower end of the rankings.if that happens.
That said, I'm overjoyed with how well Hoke and co. have recruited, and I strongly feel that the 2012 class is going to set a strong benchmark for years to come.
I think at this time of year, the committed kids will be ranked just as high as if they were uncommitted. It seems like the kids that hold out longer are rated higher because they end up accumulating more offers throughout the year. For instance, if Kaleb Ringer waited until signing day to announced, he would probably have a much more impressive offer sheet and, hence, would be ranked higher.
The reason for kids gaining more stars as others commit is due largely to the recruiting services wise, albeit disengenous practice of moving the uncommitted up to retain the interest of the fans.
For example, M fans take far more delight in watching the recruiting process of a player who has verbally stated interest in UM, and when that kid suddenly receives a 4th star from Rivals, the interest exponentially goes up. It's a time-tested practice of keeping subscribers interest piqued and goes back to the days when we received all our recruiting news via the US Postal service in the form of magazines.
Geographical location plays a huge role in the number of stars assigned to any given player also. It was just two years ago when one of the Rival writers let slip that "Alabama is so loaded this season, we couldn't possibly assign a 5* to all the deserving players." Further on in his breakdown of the mechanizations behind the final rankings was, "It's important to keep interest up throughout all the regions; therefore, when we assign a 4 to an AL hs player that deserved a 5, it's very likely that a CO player who is really a 3* might end up with a 4th....."
This is paraphrasing somewhat, but the decreased number of 5*s, when it's only an arbitrary measure separating the kids in the first place, is inarguably a guarantee that it's a crap shoot to determine who the real top 25 are.
Because statistics show that the number of stars does have direct correlation to future NFL picks, I don't think it unwise to conclude picking the top 300 - 4* and above, is not that difficult, but because the talent gap is impossible to determine precisely, is also the reason so many 3*s excel and right on down to those with NR after their name come draft day.
I did a breakdown on RR's last class after so many Fort members were voicing their displeasure at the number of 3*s, with many stating this was proof that RR just couldn't recruit the talent necessary to compete in the Big X. The final stats- Rivals using the "RR" final number, showed that his class was separated by .65 from a LC recruited class of three years earlier. Further, based on the fact his class had 6 more players, the final numbers were actually more favorable. Jibrel Black, for instance, who's final numbers came in at about 1/10 the finals of Richard Ash, was, imo, just as deserving of a 4* as was Richard Ash.
In the end, it all goes back to what Bo said years ago, "One third will be what you expected or better, one third will contribute, and one third will simply not produce. "
The most important thing in recruiting, as Charlie Weis demonstrated so clearly at ND, is not the number of 5*s you recruit, it's the number of 5*s you actually produce. Prime example of this can be summed up in two words, Denard Robinson.
MO to be has to be a 4*, his film is great, the only knock on him is his weight, and thats what S/C coaches are for
RJS - 5 star
Ross - 4 star
Bolden - 4 star
Braden - 3 star
Brown - 3 star
Stacy - 3 star
Williams - 3 star
Funchess - 3 star
Ojemudia - 3 star
Ringer - 3 star
So pretty darm close to the OP
As it currently stands, Ross has the best shot at 5-star. But me like RJS.
I might be wrong on this, but I believe Barry Every stated that Royce Jenkins-Stone would be ranked higher than Ross, mainly based on Jenkins-Stone's size. I might be mis-remembering that, but if true . . . then I guess you'd be wrong.