What's Our Path to the CFP Now?
As I see it, we have a better than 50 percent chance of getting in if:
- OSU beats MSU and we win out.
- Stanford beats Notre Dame.
- Our chances improve even more if all the Big 12 teams cannibalize each other and no one has better than two losses.
Wins over Penn State, OSU and Iowa will make us a more attractive two-loss team than any other two-loss team, including Stanford and Notre Dame. They won't take more than one team from any conference, so the final four would then be Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma State (or some other Big 12) team and us.
I'm not saying it's a slam dunk if all this happens, but I think it's our best chance. Am I wrong?
November 17th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^
Same as it was at 9:29 PM
November 17th, 2015 at 10:21 PM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 10:17 AM ^
Pinky: What are going to do tonight?
Brain: What we do every night - try to take over the world.
If the Wolverines can beat PSU, OSU and then Iowa they would have beaten a former #1 rated team (and still a top#4 team) and a currently #5 team - they would be conference champs and the loss fo MSU would be just a single bad play fluke. So yes, it is possible - just have to win out.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 10:28 PM ^
If OSU loses vs MSU we're not making the B1G championship game let alone the playoff.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:48 PM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 6:50 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 7:22 AM ^
Did you see MSU play Rutgers? Anything can happen otherwise we wouldn't play the games.
November 18th, 2015 at 7:24 AM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 10:08 AM ^
is highly overratiing what he has shown so far. Absolute regression for 2 years now.
November 18th, 2015 at 10:52 AM ^
November 19th, 2015 at 6:34 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:20 PM ^
No way its high as 80%. I'd put it more around 40% if they win out. If Michigan wins out the rest of the regular season, that's probably only good enough to get them up to #6 or 7. Ohio State would drop out of the top 4 and would likely be replaced by the winner of Oklahoma - Oklahoma State. So you'd have a top four of Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame, Okla/Okla St. They'd play #5 Iowa in the Big Ten champ game, and unless they crush Iowa it would be tough to justify more than a move up to Iowa's #5 ranking.
Outside of winning out, the best thing Michigan fans can cheer for is Stanford beating Notre Dame, and then (probably) USC beating Stanford in the Pac-12 title game. That would clear the path for Michigan to move into the top four to make it Clemson, Alabama, Big 12 winner, Michigan.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:29 PM ^
The tiebreaker for Michigan vs Stanford would be the Northwestern game per the committee guidelines.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:34 PM ^
Except this week when they ranked Stanford ahead of us.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:39 PM ^
Yep. Committee will look closer at resumes the higher we get. And beating two top 5 undefeated teams will be better than anything on Stanford's resume. Not hard to understand.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:51 PM ^
for the committee to distinguish between a 2-loss Stanford PAC12 champ and a two loss Michigan B1G champ but we play a tougher opponent in each of the remaining (hypothetical) three weeks so it'd be a shock if we didn't pass them on the strength of a better conference champ opponent (or before).
Very close resumes though. Both teams have lost to 2 loss teams in one another's conf, which is kinda crazy.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:56 PM ^
Not tough at all. Michigan would have much better wins on its resume and the common opponents (Oregon State and Northwestern) results wouldn't be close.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:33 AM ^
Would the committee look at the fact UM got both common opponents at home, and Stanford played them on the road?
Also, if Stanford beats Utah in the Pac-12 title game that would be one more common opponent and then UM and Stanford would both be 2-1 against common opponents.
November 18th, 2015 at 8:26 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 9:30 AM ^
looked at all of this already I believe. I think they were spooked big time by the Indiana game. Stanford and Michigan are firmly in the long shot category, the "sneak in" group. I think that the Committee was banking on Michigan continuing to have an elite D that would justify them getting into the playoff and also being competitive once we got there. I think they watched the Indiana game and saw possible signs of Michigan being fraudulent and that Stanford is the more "reliable" opponent to give a #1 ranked team a game. They want good games and they don't want to have to answer for an opponent that quite obviously did not deserve to be a playoff team in retrospect, and Michigan's defense against Indiana set off alarm bells. I think it is possible for Michigan to correct it without a Stanford loss but they would have to play some really, really good football from here on out.
The Stanford angle is still in play for us. Aside from ND, Cal is no pushover and they Pac 10 title game is in play(preferably NOT against Utah) for them to lose as well. That said, Big 12 chaos is our best hope now.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:36 PM ^
I know that he said USC, but if it ends up being Utah instead of USC, Michigan and Stanford would both be 1-1 against common opponents. If Utah wins, they'd obviously have the head-to-head. So, we really need USC to win out or for Utah to lose to UCLA.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:37 PM ^
Michigan wins out, Stanford beats ND, USC beats Stanford is your path.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:58 PM ^
No, it's not. Michigan does not need USC to beat Stanford.
November 18th, 2015 at 8:31 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
No, they don't. You're telling me if Michigan beats #3 OSU and #5 Iowa in back to back weeks Stanford would still be ahead of Michigan? Fuck no.
November 18th, 2015 at 9:46 AM ^
man. You have to look at this closely. If Utah beats UCLA and wins out until the Pac 12 championship game they will be ranked about 8. ND is ranked 4 right now and is going to smothercrush BC. So, in this scenario we would be beating #3 OSU and #5 Iowa. Stanford would be beating #4 ND and #8 Utah. There is not a whole lot of difference there when Iowa is presumed to be fraudulent and Stanford will have just beat a Utah team that already beat Michigan. If we get in on the Stanford angle it is going to be because they either lose the Pac 12 title game(preferable to USC and not Utah) or we win so big that we just jump them based on eye test. But it is not as simple as beat OSU and Iowa because they will basically have done the same thing in the last two weeks of the season. Once again, shift focus to Big 12 chaos. That is likely our ticket now.
Or Michigan State could just beat OSU this weekend and ijohnb would put on his sad face.
November 18th, 2015 at 9:54 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
What does being unbeaten have to do with anything? Neither Iowa or Ohio State have played anyone of consequence. You don't get extra credit for beating them because you were the first good team they played.
November 18th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 10:13 AM ^
No you listen man. Michigan would have the two best wins in the entire college football season BY FAR if they beat two undefeated top 5 teams in back to back weeks. The B1G has 6 teams in the top 25 (most by far) and if you think Alvarez, Osborne, etc are going to leave out a massive brand like Michigan for fucking Stanford (see OSU over TCU and Baylor last year) you're out of your mind. Right now Utah doesn't even control its own destiny to win its division let alone get in a conference title game with Stanford right now. Stanford losing to NW is another tie breaker in Michigan's favor. It's really mind boggling people are having a hard time understanding this.
November 18th, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^
listen man. Ask yourself this question. If the Northwestern game means anything at all, why on earth is Michigan not ranked above Stanford right now? Do you think the Committee just didn't notice that we beat our one common opponent by 31 points? And If the "brand" meant anything they would have gotten out in front of it this week in order not to have to explain why Michigan would jump Stanford when both teams closed the season with wins over Top 10 opponents.
November 18th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
Because the committee doesn't give a shit about teams outsie the top 10 right now. If Michigan and Stanford both win out and Michigan gets left out for Stanford I will never post here again. Hw about you do the same if the opposite is true deal?
November 18th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
could I at least have a couple of celebratory comments on the front page Playoff Muppets thread before I self-imposed the ban?
November 18th, 2015 at 12:27 PM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
I never said they were. Read my post again, I said it was a factor. Good god.
November 18th, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 11:51 PM ^
Utah winning out sure would make it interesting. They have UCLA and Stanford then as wins and then have UM head to head.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:04 AM ^
Technically, Utah is in the same spot with USC that we are with MSU. They are tied and USC has the head-to-head tiebreaker. Utah needs to win out and have USC lose. However, if that happens, I think that you're right in calling that "interesting"
November 19th, 2015 at 6:38 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^
It'll be tough. They need MSU to lose to Ohio St, Notre Dame to lose to Stanford, and Stanford to lose the Pac-12 champ game ideally. Some more carnage in the Big 12 would help too. If Michigan wins out, they'll have wins over the #3 team, and the #5 team and that might be just enough to squeak in as a 2-loss #4 team.
November 17th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 10:14 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 10:16 PM ^
the B1G championship, and ND loses to Stanford, we are in. Even if ND wins, there's a chance the Big 12 beats itself up enough (OK loses to TCU and beats Ok St, etc) that we still get in. Which is why I agree that if we win the B1G championship, there's about an 80% chance we get in.