What's Our Path to the CFP Now?
As I see it, we have a better than 50 percent chance of getting in if:
- OSU beats MSU and we win out.
- Stanford beats Notre Dame.
- Our chances improve even more if all the Big 12 teams cannibalize each other and no one has better than two losses.
Wins over Penn State, OSU and Iowa will make us a more attractive two-loss team than any other two-loss team, including Stanford and Notre Dame. They won't take more than one team from any conference, so the final four would then be Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma State (or some other Big 12) team and us.
I'm not saying it's a slam dunk if all this happens, but I think it's our best chance. Am I wrong?
November 17th, 2015 at 11:04 PM ^
More will be known next week, but if you use Massy to baseline the estimated chances of us winning out, they sit at 21.42%, whereas the chances of us beating PSU but falling to OSU sit at 41.58%. As winning out is tied to our playoff hopes should they materialize, I suppose I would take a 1 in 5-ish estimate going into the final two weeks of the season. Definitely above what I thought in August.
November 18th, 2015 at 7:22 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 11:17 PM ^
but cant we just look at this one game at a time? I mean we are heading into the third most hostile B1G football environment and a "White Out". Luckily it is not at night. I am just getting tired of the speculating as UM has so far yet to go in winning the last two and so much has to happen outside that for the playoffs. May the force be with us! Go Blue!
November 17th, 2015 at 11:22 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 11:23 PM ^
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November 17th, 2015 at 11:33 PM ^
White out at noon might as well be pink out.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:45 PM ^
then don't. It's that simple.
Other than my well timed beer guzzles and chip chomps, we fans don't affect the games. Let those who find exploring scenarios to be interesting do so.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:25 PM ^
Pray.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:30 PM ^
I will say I disagree with the notion UM is a shoo in over Stanford if both win out. If Utah wins out they are going to be around 7-8 going into the P12 championship game.
So UM will beat OSU (#3) and Iowa (#5) - assuming Iowa doesnt screw it up vs Neb
Stanford will beat ND (#4) and Utah (#7-8).
Iowa could fall behind Oklahoma or OK State as well by then so instead of #5 could be #6. So those last 2 victories will essentially be washes for both Stanford and Michigan.
Next,UM and Stanford will have 2 common opponents, 1 of which they both lost to on the road. (NW for Stanford and Utah for UM)
Meanwhile Stanford will have a neutral site win over said common opponent (Utah) while UM will have a home win (NW) so adv Stanford.
Again it's going to come down to a long discussion that will be full of controversy in this scenario. The entire resume will be re-looked at. You might be talking games vs Minn and Ind vs what Stanford did vs Cal and Washington to determine who advances.
If Iowa loses to Neb it really would gum it up. Lots of moving parts. Not a sure thing like many are presenting IMO.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:35 PM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 12:00 AM ^
Good pt
root for USC to go on road and beat Oregon and then home v UCLA
or root for UCLA to beat Utah on road, then beat USC at home
Utah has the easiest path - home game v UCLA and Colo.
Trouble is rooting against Utah means hurting our SOS. Its like a 5 dimensional puzzle!
November 18th, 2015 at 12:19 AM ^
problem solved
November 18th, 2015 at 2:28 AM ^
UCLA and USC both control their destiny. If USC wins out they win the division outright. If UCLA wins out, they win any tiebreakers with USC and/or Utah via head to head. UCLA vs Utah this weekend is almost an elimination game in the Pac-12 south race.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:25 AM ^
unless all the dominoes fall perfectly an 11-2 UM is not guaranteed a spot. After the conference championship games if you have an undefeated Clemson, one loss Bama, undefeated Okie St and one loss ND then UM could very well be on the outside looking in.
November 18th, 2015 at 2:09 AM ^
They only need to fall in two of the five other leagues/ND
- Stanford beats ND
- USC or UCLA win PAC12
- FSU beats Fla; Fla wins SEC
- UNC falls to either VT or NCSt but wins ACC
- Okla falls to two losses and the B12 champ ends up w/ one loss*
- Baylor beats OkSt 11/21
- TCU beats Okla 11/21
- Baylor beats TCU 11/27
- Okla beats OkSt 11/28
- Texas beats Baylor 12/5
November 18th, 2015 at 8:25 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
The more one and 2 loss teams that UM has to complete with will just make the picture muddy. I'd just assume Clemson, Alabama and Okie St win - that'll eliminate a lot of teams still in the picture/barely in the picture.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:34 AM ^
Iowa could fall behind Oklahoma? What are you talking about? There's no way that happens if both win out to the conference title game. And how exactly is Utah going to jump 6 spots in two weeks playing two unranked teams?
November 18th, 2015 at 2:11 AM ^
Iowa would take the B1G's spot that was presumed to be going to OSU. Whether they get labelled #1, 2, 3, or 4, they would still be in.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
Teams ahead of Utah will lose, thats how they jump.
As for Utah - OK plays OK State, one of those teams losing will move them behind Utah. Stanford plays ND, if ND wins, Stanford will fall behind Utah. MSU plays OSU. If MSU loses it will fall below Utah. Just from those 3 games Utah moves up 3 spots to 10. If Baylor loses next 2 weeks they will fall behind Utah. Florida could lose to FSU.
Etc. How did MSU move up 5 spots this week by beating 2 win Maryland? 4 teams ahead of them lost. Same could go for Utah.
Also yes Iowa has no game in next 2 weeks to improve their standing. You think Oklahoma beating OK State (or vice versa) wont move either of those 2 teams ahead of Iowa .... who is playing Nebraska? Beating a top 5ish team is how UM fans want UM to jump in the polls but if OK or OK State do it, it wont move themm up - they are teams 6 and 7. The winner has a great chance of passing Iowa whose best win is NW.
November 17th, 2015 at 11:35 PM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 11:50 PM ^
at the end of the Indiana game to send it into overtime.
Let that be duly noted.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:19 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 12:26 AM ^
November 17th, 2015 at 11:40 PM ^
Simple: First, we win out. CHECK.
Next, in a stunning reprise of this summer's Harbaupalooza, on December 7th Coach takes Team #136 on a barnstorm tour challenging each of the top 4 playoff teams to a duel--beating the only taker, Notre Dame, who, although initially agreeing to the game and the result of winner gets in the CFP, reneges at the last minute and fails to show up...filled with loathing and disgust for the purple headed madman, the Committee reassembles in emergency fashion and votes MEEEECHIGAN in Notre Dame's spot.
And, Voila, it is accomplished.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:04 AM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 12:04 AM ^
I hope the team shows more motivation at PSU than they did at IU. PSU defense is better than IU's but their OL is much worse. I think the defense will play better and I hope Rudock can keep up the good job passing the ball.
Looks like much will have to fall in place for us to make the playoffs. It would be great if we can beat PSU and OSU than go to the B1G championship game.
November 18th, 2015 at 1:09 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 1:24 AM ^
I think your biggest obstacles are ND and Oklahoma in that order. OU is not getting in ahead of ND because of Texas. ND and OU both have to lose for even a slight chance if UM wins out to crawl into #4. ND only drops if OKst goes unbeaten.
November 18th, 2015 at 2:14 AM ^
Problem solved, should we be lucky enough to face it.
The probability that we win the B1G is a lot smaller than the marginal probability that we make the playoffs given we win the B1G.
November 18th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
I think the B12 is not an issue - give them a slot if its 1 loss OK or 0 loss OK State.
UM is fighting ND and fighting the P12 champion. If ND wins out UM wont go in over them for reasons no one can figure out (ND wont have won a conf championship and best win is Navy). But if ND loses it eliminatse them and you have P12 v B10 champion. If the B10 champ is MSU, Iowa or OSU Big 10 gets it for sure. If its 2 loss UM then its a discussion point if its 2 loss Utah or 2 loss Stanford. If its 3 loss UCLA or USC then UM gets in.
November 18th, 2015 at 1:34 AM ^
What if OSU loses to MSU this weekend...you never know, it could happen. It would be tough to watch them go to CFP this year
November 18th, 2015 at 2:39 AM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 7:46 AM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 1:39 AM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 3:46 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 2:22 AM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 9:11 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
He transfered to DII Tuskeegee. Not 100% on why he was kicked off, but I think it was academic.
November 18th, 2015 at 3:18 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 9:17 AM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 3:32 AM ^
These threads are absolutely ridiculous. We just beat INDIANA by the skin of our teeth and have some real injury/depth issues to now overcome. Let's just win...one game at a time.
If we were to win out, meaning we beat OSU (!) and take home the Big Ten Championship, I for one, would be ecstatic, regardless of what the CFP committee thinks.
November 18th, 2015 at 6:05 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 8:55 AM ^
OSU played IU with Zander Diamant (not Sudfled) as the IU QB, and with Howard not really healthy. So in an way one coould argue that M's win at IU better than OSU's win at IU.
On the other hand, I would feel more comfortable with M's odds against Penn State and OSU if (1) M still had a healthy d-line, and (2) M had better developed the ability to run the ball consistently.
My optimistic side says that now that Rudock has shown the ability to hit the deep passes, Penn State and OSU are going to have to defend the entire field and will not be able to stack the box without getting burned.
I still expect PSU and OSU to dare Michigan to beat them with passing by stacking the box to take away the run on most downs. But at least they now know that Rudock can make them pay if they always stack the box. This could open up M's run game just enough to get two more wins.
November 18th, 2015 at 9:09 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 9:26 AM ^
^ This. What he said...
November 18th, 2015 at 3:45 AM ^
November 18th, 2015 at 8:17 AM ^
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November 18th, 2015 at 4:10 AM ^
I know anything can happen in "The Game", just like the past 2 games, but I'm not super confident in our defenses against good teams with solid QB's. Howard went for 8 yards per carry. Elliot is much better than Howard.
I'm not saying we can't win, I just don't see it happening this year, which is why I'd rather see MSU beat the buckeyes bc I do not want them winning back to back championships.
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November 18th, 2015 at 4:24 AM ^