UM Opponent Sagarin Rankings

Submitted by BlackEvanDown on September 15th, 2010 at 6:59 PM

So, I was digging around in the Sagarin rankings because I was impressed with the UMASS win over William & Mary two weeks ago. According to Sagarin, the UMASS (69) game will be more difficult than the following:

  • Bowling Green (108)
  • Indiana (91)
  • Purdue (89)
  • Connecticut (80)
  • and Minnesota (105) if they actually played

While I do think Michigan has a right to be confident in playing a FCS team, I do not think this team should be taken that lightly. The CAA tends to be successful against FBS teams, and I would be willing to put their teams up against MAC and Sun Belt teams any day of the week.

Sagarin Rankings

Comments

Vasav

September 15th, 2010 at 7:10 PM ^

I agree that UMass is a decent team, but our boys will not take them lightly, nor will the coaches let them. They know our history as well as we do, and they know about VT. We'll play them tough.

Muttley

September 15th, 2010 at 9:15 PM ^

However, at the beginning of the season, he has to make some assumptions (using data from last season) to fill in the gaps (because there haven't been enough games between teams in 2010 to differentiate all the 2-0 teams). Ergo, the disclaimer

For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all CONNECTED, then the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal and the ELO CHESS is then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on. RATING and PREDICTOR are now bayesian and the ELO-CHESS is also bayesian.

At one point last year, Northern Iowa was around 70. (Iowa had to block two FG attempts to preserve a victory in their game against them.)

As we've learned, you can't take the top FCS clubs lightly.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

the_dude

September 15th, 2010 at 10:55 PM ^

They only thing I would bring up would be that UConn has faced the #14 team (Michigan) while UMass hasn't faced an opponent anywhere near that caliber.  The larger point being that it is very difficult to rank teams right now.  It's fun to try but we just don't have enough data, particularly with many teams having played nothing but cupcakes up to this point.

bluebyyou

September 15th, 2010 at 7:18 PM ^

If you were unfortunate enough to experience the Horror at  the Big House, and I was, games like this scare me to death.  RichRod can say only so much but after the emotional highs and lows of the last two weeks, we need to be very careful this Saturday.

As Denard's "fame and fortune" spreads, teams will be up to see if they can stop him and us.

We need to play our A game.

chunkums

September 15th, 2010 at 7:31 PM ^

This early on you've really gotta be careful with that.  UConn took a significant dip I'm sure when UM smoked them in the big house.  In their only other game, they devoured a cuppycake, and haven't had the chance to recover.

Kyrie_Smith

September 15th, 2010 at 7:40 PM ^

Those who forget history are doomed to.... Blah blah blah.
<br>
<br>Umass is no App State. I'm convinced that any team can beat any other team on any given day. But not Umass and not this Saturday.
<br>
<br>Michigan by 5 touchdowns. Shoelace could hang 600 yards on 'em.
<br>
<br>
<br>

sum1valiant

September 15th, 2010 at 7:46 PM ^

If there were going to be any motivational issues for the players, which I seriously doubt there would have been, I think V Tech helped us out a lot.  I'll guarantee there's no one on our team that isn't well aware of what went down in Blacksburg and that served as a wake-up call to anyone that may have needed it.  This team will be prepared.   

switch26

September 15th, 2010 at 7:51 PM ^

Since our team is rather healthy right now, i don't think we will have any problem with any teams till we start the big ten.  Indiana's offense is pretty good and would scare me if we haven't been stopping the run rather nicely so far this year.

James Howlett

September 15th, 2010 at 8:16 PM ^

With all due respect does anyone here believe UMass is actually better than UConn? Comparable?

That James Madison(Sagarin #33) based on beating Virginia Tech, 6 days following a emotional and physically draining loss against Boise State is the thirty-third best team in the country? The latest FCS poll has James Madison #3 in the FCS. A signifcant jump from #11 the previous week but, apparently the FCS voters had enough common sense to realize that the James Madison-V.Tech is likely completely indicative of the strength of the team.

Sagarin's #'s are "objective" in that he doesn't manipulate them week to week. He has a formula and puts the numbers of the games into the computer model based on that formula.

Especially early, but I think 'in-the-main" generally this is an extremely rough outline of the strength of teams. I suspect if James Madison and V.Tech played 10 times on consecutive Saturdays V.tech would win at least 8 of them. He has little information to go on. UConn on most computer models were 6-7 point winners against UM. One program had UConn winning 95% of the time in their model of the game. The odds makers were off but, more on top of things having UM as a 2.5-3 point favorite. Please take these models/projections, especially early, with a cow lick sized grain of salt.

jmblue

September 15th, 2010 at 11:11 PM ^

Yeah, that juxtaposition pretty much made it clear that his rankings can't mean much at this point.  UConn is obviously being penalized for losing by 20 in its opener.  UMass might possibly be the 69th-best team in the country, but no way is UConn only the 80th-best. 

cadmus2166

September 15th, 2010 at 10:43 PM ^

as they are in the same conference as FCS powers Villanova and Richmond.  I do think that they will play us tough.  But if UConn and ND couldn't stop Denard, why am I thinking it's only going to get easier this week?

bronxblue

September 15th, 2010 at 10:54 PM ^

This early in the season, those rankings are obviously limited.  For one, I think Indiana is far more dangerous that UMass, but that's just me.

I know RR will have the team ready, but I'll feel quite a bit better when UM is up 21 at halftime.