Tale of Two Plays: A 20-20 Game Potentially
Lost in a lot of the hang-wringing and justifiable frustration is this:
Two plays go differently, all else playing out the same, this is a 20-20 game headed to OT.
First is the Winovich tackle/penalty. Directly extended what would've been a 4th and goal FG attempt. Instead of 17-3 they score to make it 21-3. He directly gave them a high % opp for 4 more points with that late hit. Really inexcusable.
Second play is the botched FG attempt from 36 yards. Holder just couldn't get what looked like a decent snap down. Sucks but just quirky like that. Performed 100 times that's 3 points for blue 80-85% of the time.
So +4 on the penalty and -3 on the solid drive but freak FG flub. 20-20 ball game with maybe a Shea drive at the end or heroics in OT.
September 2nd, 2018 at 6:55 AM ^
No. No. Please no more rationalizations. I'm getting really tired of "if one play had gone differently." If. If. If. Half the teams in America could probably use the same thinking to rationalize a championship season gone awry.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:03 AM ^
It’s frustrating for sure. The OPs point is that there were a lot of plays that could have gone either way and we just didn’t get the breaks in this one.
The positive is that we can improve over the course of the season. There are a lot of good things I saw from UM in this game if I don’t filter everything through MGoBlog’s stylish “everything sucks, the sky is falling, Harbaugh is overrated, this program is broken” glasses.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:04 AM ^
Imho, the problem with this type of analysis is that it is one sided. Pick out a couple of close play that went against you and flip them. To be done well you'd have to game through the whole game and pick out all the close plays.
To be fair, it sure felt like Michigan was on the short end of the "close play" stick.
What if Hawkins extends his arms and doesn't let a play 4" shorter than him jump over his back to make a TD catch? What if the refs called delay of game on the one ND field goal?...
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:09 AM ^
I think you actually helped the point. Name the 50/50 plays that went Michigan's way.
In 4 quarters, those things should balance, but if every 50/50 went one direction...
Can you name any that went our way?
What if OPI is called on Alize? What if DPI is called on either the Gentry pass in the end zone or the Higdon pass on 4th down?
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
The defender did make contact with Gentry before the ball got there.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:06 AM ^
Not rationalizing anything. This is just the knife's edge between winning and losing. Harbaugh didn't cause these things, unless he's seen the late hits in practice and isn't correcting. One was a fifth year senior just being undisciplined. Does winovich do that late hit crap in practice? Why is he doing it here?
Why did Michigan drop the snap on FG attempt? Again, just a freak mistake.
Bottom line is we are 0-1 but I'm seeing posts that make it seem like we were out-classed or out-coached by a purple faced genius...simply not true. Two plays were the literal difference.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:26 AM ^
Solving their problems with aggression led to solving their problems with frustration/aggression. There’s no excuse for it but Chase is a top shelf, class act. I’m sure if he could go back, get his head up, and not take that 2nd step into Wimbush, he would have.
Sometimes, Don Brown has these guys running around a bit too rabid.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:51 AM ^
That call on Wimbush was ... not a great call.
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^
What you call 50-50 plays are not chance. They are what separates elite teams from mediocre teams. Spartan wr made a multiple tough catches. Psu made a clutch drive to get into ot. Those teams know how to win. We do not.
September 2nd, 2018 at 6:58 AM ^
Not to mention Hawkins should have been pick in the end zone that he got outmuscled for...
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:15 AM ^
This was a huge play and should have been a pick. He was a WR for crying out loud.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:21 AM ^
Huge play for sure and I was screaming at the TV. But arm punt balls like that are 50-50 or 60-40 at worse. It's basically backyard toss it up football.
The winovich point swing was completely unjustified, unnecessary. The FG flub was freakish. Again all things being equal without these confounding plays, it is 20-20 at end of regulation or maybe ND gets last second FG to win after recovering Shea fumble.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
A pass into tight double-coverage is not a 50-50 ball. That's an INT or incompletion most of the time.
Doug Flutie basically criticized Wimbush for throwing that, without actually saying it ("He was going to throw this ball no matter what...").
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:12 AM ^
“was”
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:18 AM ^
Didn’t quite high point the ball...but was in perfect position to do so. Perhaps during his last few backpedals he just couldn’t get the vertical lift...
I think he’s got a higher ceiling than Metellus, however.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:06 AM ^
Wasn't how high he jumped that was the problem. He short armed it.
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:15 AM ^
Hawkins needs to come down with that ball. He was in good position.
That was a huge play.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
Or just break it up, at least. No way should the WR go over his back and grab it.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:20 AM ^
On the TD pass right after the ref fell over. Wimbush has absolutely no pressure. It looked to me like our defense held up when the ref fell like time would be called.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:27 AM ^
It’s not necessarily this one game. It’s seeing an OL that is still a complete dumpster fire in pass protection, an offense that still has no flow or complexity, a team that still shits the bed with mistakes on the road, and a team that had this many returners after getting embarrassed this year come out completely uninspired relative to the competition. We haven’t won a road game against a ranked opponent since 2006. This whole thing runs way deeper that 2 plays.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:37 AM ^
One play that I can’t get out of my mind is a horrific play call. On our first FG drive, in the 2nd Q, we have first and goal from the 5. Higdon runs for three yards down to the two. I thought for sure we’d run it three straight times from there (if need be). Instead, we call a pass play with a line that can’t protect and Shea gets sacked back to the 10 and we end up settling for a FG. That cost us 4 pts.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:41 AM ^
Agreed. And ND expected it too. A TD there makes it a 7 point game at halftime. Much different.
I saw on Twitter that every one of our drives ended in ND territory, yet we only scored one offensive TD. They have to finish drives. I hope it's a matter of Shea getting used to the offense or else this will be all of our big games.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:08 AM ^
I miss ??
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Yes - I didn't like that call at all. That said, Shea's got to get rid of that ball.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:41 AM ^
The point really is Michigan does not make the plays it needs. Who is making the plays?
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:33 AM ^
Gustave is exactly right. Nobody steps up. Gary had several pressures but no big plays. Same for everybody else except Ambry and Nico. Where were the third and long conversions and stops? Not enough big plays to beat a quality opponent
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:48 AM ^
We played a true away game (not neutral site garbage) against a real opponent at night in the first game and we didn't get killed... The season isn't lost. If this OL can get better every game we might have something here.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:57 AM ^
It's amazing that this is what it has come to in year 4.
"We played a road game against a 3 or 4 loss Notre Dame team in week one, at least we didn't get our socks blown off."
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:31 AM ^
You both make really good points.
my biggest takeaway is that the Michigan team I saw last night does not look like a team that can compete with the osu’s and Alabama’s of college football. And I thought for sure when Harbaugh was hired we would be right there by year 4.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:36 AM ^
Who else plays real OOC road games anymore? It's not easy. You think Bama is playing USC in LA at night the first game of the year? Not a chance. We played the toughest game this week. We lost. We can get better from this. It's recent adversity. It's not always the worst thing.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^
I totally agree with you on principle. However, I think the Auburn-Washington matchup was the toughest game of the weekend based on rankings. But your larger point holds true. Very few top programs are willing to sacrifice a non-conference game to play a big one on the road.
Bottom line - we played in an extremely hostile environment, played rather poorly, and were within striking distance on the last drive. I sure as hell want to start winning these types of games, but I'm also not driving my vehicle off the cliff today.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
i wouldn't equate "needed a miracle drive to tie" with "within striking distance".
best-case there is forcing overtime, where nd would go back to trying to score instead of sitting on their lead because the offense sucks.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
We had 1:48 to go 80 yards, in a game in which all of our offensive possessions entered their territory, so it really wouldn't have taken a miracle to score. We were outplayed in the balance of the game, but we absolutely could have scored more than we did.
OT would have been anyone's game IMO.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:56 AM ^
You are right , stupid defence , he never looked up at him before he hit him in the back ,cost M the game
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:58 AM ^
Any game, especially a rivalry, you got about 5 or so plays that are pivotal to the outcome. Spot on on those two there, Winovich HAS to be smarter. Completely inexcusable by a 5th year Senior. Can argue and say it was a bang bang play, but gotta know better.
Gentry letting the safety knock the ball out of his hands in the endzone for a TD, Hawkins letting the ball literally go right through his hands in the end zone would be two other plays that didn't go in our favor either. Painful, to say the least.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:36 AM ^
I just rewatched the first half. Knowing what was going to happen We didn’t look as bad as I thought we did during the game. ND has some crazy catches on well defended plays. Runyan took us out of FG range letting 99 sack Shea early on. Gentry couldn’t hold on to a TD pass as the safety knocked it out. The OP is correct The winovich late hit cost 4 points. ...and the botched FG cost three.
Michigan got beat, but ND is a good team and made a lot of plays that don’t always bounce your way.
The stats for the game were nearly identical.
Runyan needs to get a lot better.
DPJ shouldn’t return kicks.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:46 AM ^
Start of the second half we drove right down the field and the second down right before the botchyFG, the tackles went out for a screen of some sort but it was ruinous because no one blocked and the Irish were immediately on Shea. What was that play other than awful?
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:01 AM ^
Devin Gill not wrapping up and Wimbush getting a 25 yard pass instead of a 15 yard sack....
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:52 AM ^
Exclusively blaming coaching for last night is low hanging fruit.
ND's players made plays, catching balls in double coverage, etc. Michigan's didn't.
ND receiver catches a ball in double coverage for a TD b/c Michigan's former WR-turned-safety couldn't pick it. Michigan's supposed NFL ready TE didn't win a battle for a ball in the end zone. A 5th year senior hit the QB late. A holder dropped the ball. Hawkins dropped another pick at end of 1st half.
Michigan's players were in positions to make plays to win the game. They didn't make the plays. Last night's loss was because of Jimmy's and Joe's, not X's and O's.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:59 AM ^
Player development, which turns back around on coaching.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:53 AM ^
Say Aubrey fair catches instead of returns the kick for a TD and the Irish formation on the called back TD pass didn’t draw a flag.
Then you are looking at 28–10.
See why you are dumb?
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:33 AM ^
I was just going to say. This is what the fanbase has come to, going over every play with a fine tooth comb to find all the what ifs (only on Michigan's side) to make them feel better even in a loss. My Saturdays are going to more open in the near future me thinks.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^
But was that TD catch going to stand? Looked like his knee was out of bounds on replay, but maybe I'm blinded by maize and blue goggles.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
Well, ND got away with a obvious hold on their 3rd TD. Even the NBC announcers admitted it.
And that was a penalty on that pass - fairly incidental to the play, yes, but the TE was covered up and clearly more than 3 yards downfield.
Throw in the targeting ejection and multiple delay-of-games that ND got away with (including on the FG) and the PI no-call on our 4th down in the 4th quarter, and it's hard to argue that officiating wasn't a net benefit in their favor.
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:03 AM ^
I guess when I'm thinking about what could have, should have been, I generally look at only plays where the refs stopped play for something (injury or flag), but made some obvious error that we can see in the replay. Since its an acc crew, the replay booth has the ability to weigh in... and didn't.
Yes Chase hit the QB low, 2 steps after release, but they should have also called the obvious holding on Chase (neck/arm and then jersey). In fact Gary and Chase were getting held most every down in the first half... it took until a tackle tackled Chase and landed on top of him for them to give us a holding.
If the above was a roughing the passer, (it was), Shea should have gotten a reciprocal call when ND's linebacker pushed him into the ground from behind, 4-5 seconds after he released. (On the play the linebacker rolled his ankle). It wasn't an oops I'm running in to you, it was let me run over to you and give you a two handed shove from behind. Clear cheap shot well away from the line and right in front of the ref. A call there would have helped a drive that otherwise fizzled.
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:12 AM ^
But....that's football man. Every team that loses can usually point to a play or two that could have changed the game in a big way.
I would point to the 2nd ND touchdown that should have been picked off in the end zone. But, as fate would have it, the ball phased out of our reality and then back into it as it passed through Brad Hawkins and into the ND receiver's hands. Take that score away, and maybe Shea hits a deep shot on the ensuing drive and the game is tied.
It's been said so many times by so many others, but I'll say it again just to be on record: Football is a simple game, if you control the line of scrimmage, you control the game. UM just doesn't do a good enough job on defense in close games, and the is an abomination on offense in this regard. It doesn't matter who is under center/back in the gun when he doesn't have time to make a read and throw. Patterson did a very good job of throwing on the move and was more accurate than we've seen in a while, but he still held on to the ball too long at times, mostly because he didn't have any time to begin with.
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^
2 plays:
if ND covered a kickoff (M -7), and didn't cover what was intended to be an eligible receiver (ND +4), then the score is:
28-10!!!
EDIT: Sorry to duplicate your post, jbrandimore. I didn't read all the posts before posting.
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:51 AM ^
Right?? I'm so sick of people saying "what if?" like we had bad luck. That doesn't happen for 10-15 years. Michigan is a choke program that plays afraid.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
Big words for some random guy who sits in a recliner watching... and whining.
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:31 AM ^
The Leps had a TD called back where no one could see the penalty. Maybe the refs were suffering brain cramps similar to Shea