Sportsline predicts Warren goes undrafted

Submitted by rb4kb8 on April 22nd, 2010 at 10:04 AM

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/13265351/five-bold-draft-predi…

"1. Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead, Syracuse wide receiver Mike Williams and Michigan defensive back Donovan Warren will not be drafted

Donovan Warren was a productive defensive back, but he is a prime candidate to be among the unlucky underclassmen not hearing his name called during the draft because of his stiff hips and lack of speed."

I think I mentioned this before, but could we really be seeing Ernest Shazor all over again?

I hope not.

Comments

Blue in Yarmouth

April 23rd, 2010 at 9:10 AM ^

Let me play devils advocate for a minute. Unlike many on this board, I have mantained since he declared for the draft that there was no way he would go earlier than the 3rd round. Now lets look at hypotheticals for a minute:

Hypothetical #1:
DW stays and the NFL and players get a new CBA that has a salary cap on first rounders salary. Staying for his fourth year puts Warren in the first round of the draft and he is indeed capped. I don't know what kind of cap they are looking at, but I can't imagine they are going to get paid less than 3 million a year so lets say 3 million.

Hypothetical #2:
DW stays, there is a one year lockout (unlikely but let's examine this) and when the NFL resumes DW gets a first rounders salary (stick with the same number) of 3 million per year starting in 2012.

Hypothetical #3:

DW stays and there is no lockout and the CBA does not include a rookie salary cap. He gets drafted in the first round and gets $5 million per year.

Reality:
DW passes on his senior year and get drafted in third round (or worse) so that he can get paid before a lockout. Now he is getting locked in at a substantially lower salary, likely less than a million per year.

Had he waited for after his senior year he would have likely made that money back in one season (two if there was a lockout) and it would have compounded each season thereafter (contrast a contact paying out $875,000 per year to one paying $3 million per year). Lets say it was a 5 year deal, how much money has he lost over the five years? Over $10 million dollars.

If money was his reason for leaving he made one hell of a mistake. I wish him the best, but this is simply a very bad decision.

Njia

April 22nd, 2010 at 11:33 AM ^

Hopefully, it will give room for pause among others who want to leave early for the draft. At least, among Wolverines. Opposing team players can leave as soon as they'd like.

Awww... What the heck am I saying? Agents have these guys believing they can bend the trajectory of a ball through force of will.

Blue in Yarmouth

April 26th, 2010 at 8:01 AM ^

Where does it show that a first rounder (at any position) doesn't make substantially more than a fourth or fifth rounder? I find that impossible to believe.

People at the end of the first round were getting over 10 million dollars while people in the 3rd and 4th rounds were getting between 1.5 and 1.2.

What kind of world do you live in where this is not a substantial difference?

Even if you were drafted in the second round the average salary of second rounders is more than double what 3rd and 4th rounders get. In a contract that lasts at least 3 years that is a huge amount of money.

Anyone that still looks at this situation and thinks DW has made the right decision needs their head examined. No offense to him by any means, but he made a terrible choice.

WilsonHawk

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:12 AM ^

Talk about a turn of bad luck... When he left there was talk about him possibly being a late first rounder, at least from some of the mocks I read. Now to see that he could go undrafted, whoa...

Best of luck to him

ommeethatsees

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:23 AM ^

I don't recall ever hearing what his draft projection was. Did Warren or any of the coaches ever release that information? I do recall most analysts saying that he should have stayed in school for his senior year. Looks like they were right. Hopefully even if he doesn't get drafted he can catch on with a team.

Seth

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:16 AM ^

Warren has moved on. Pining doesn't do us any good.

I'm telling myself that, by the way, not the board.

Warren has moved on.

No, he can't come back.

Come off it, Misopogon. Stop being a moron!

michiganfanforlife

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:22 AM ^

was interviewed yesterday, and the guy asked him who the best corner in the Big Ten was. He quickly said Donavan Warren. I raised my eyebrows... Who knows where he will be picked, if at all.

I'm still pissed they moved the draft to thursday night. I used to have a party every year on saturday with cookout/beer/games/girls/fun/no OSU fans/gambling but now it is all ruined. I work early and a party on a work night is stupid. You can't have a party for rounds 4-7 because nobody gives a **** at that point. Maybe they think that less people will have parties, so more tv's will be turned on as everyone will watch it by themselves this year.

Six Zero

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:31 AM ^

I have great memories from college of waking up from a foggy morning-after stupor and drifting slowly into the TV lounge, where the entire men's wing of my floor would each find a spot and just SIT THERE for about 10 hours, with takeout orders coming in and out non-stop. Then it'd be out for Saturday night, and do the whole thing all over again on Sunday.

Then fail all of your tests on Monday morning, of course. Good times.

Speed Kills

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:28 AM ^

Sometimes people only listen to the advice they want to hear. Hope it works out for him in the end...good luck DW!

Call me old, but I'm kind of happy it's on a weeknight. Although all the reason you state are very legit, I like to do stuff outdoors on the weekends when it isn't football season and always felt a little bitter-sweet about spending 7+ hours on a Saturday parked on my couch only to hear Kiper and McShay try and pretend that they don't hate each other.

Rasmus

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:41 AM ^

on him. Speed isn't much use if you're out of position. Warren is smart, with a lot of game experience. He'll get picked in the late rounds by a good team.

He reminds me a little of Avant, who IIRC was also undervalued in the draft because of questions about speed. The Eagles took him in the fourth round and he has been a great pick for them. I'd expect Warren to go around the same point -- fourth or fifth round, to an organization looking for players who can step into a successful system and not fuck it up -- that is, a good team.

pdgoblue25

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:39 AM ^

It's hard for me to believe that he won't get drafted. Shazor is a good comparison though unfortunately, the guy was a finalist for the Thorpe award for christ's sake. However, I'll always love him to death for the hit on Kyle Orton on the sidline that caused the fumble!

Argyle

April 22nd, 2010 at 10:53 AM ^

I'll feel bad for him if he doesn't get drafted, but even so, I'm guessing he'll still make a squad through tryouts. I don't fault him for moving on. It's his life and he felt that this was the best decision. Good for him and good luck to him. I wish him only the best.

evenyoubrutus

April 22nd, 2010 at 11:11 AM ^

but let's see what actually happens this weekend. If that does come true, that's just more ammunition for negative recruiting. I can just see the Drew Sharp column now: "More proof that Mike Barwis is nothing special and Rich Rodriguez's ability to coach up players is all a myth." It's all BS but unfortunately people would read it and believe it.

Edit: on the other hand, for me PERSONALLY if that actually happens I would feel better about RR because it shows he had less talent than everyone said/thought he did on defense. If Warren was their second-best player on defense, that really says a lot.

BrayBray1

April 22nd, 2010 at 11:21 AM ^

Every time I see Donovan's name, I think DW, which makes me think of...

Strange huh?
BTW, hope the Lions can snag him in late rounds...That would be pret-ty cool.

we the roses

April 22nd, 2010 at 11:23 AM ^

I think it's more ridiculous that they said Syracuse's Mike Williams wouldn't get drafted... I always thought of him as a productive football player who needed somebody to throw him the ball.

we the roses

April 22nd, 2010 at 12:07 PM ^

but as a 6th or 7th rounder... low risk high upside? get him with the right people? I think he could be one of those guys that just really needs a mentor and someone to look up to. Plus if he slacks off or anything you can just cut him since you didn't waste too much on him. The Lions do have a few 7th round picks I believe...

BiSB

April 22nd, 2010 at 11:51 AM ^

a) that DW gets drafted, and enjoys a long and successful career, and...

b) that this is the last time we hear "draft prospect from Michigan" and "concerns about his speed" in the same sentence.

Rico616

April 22nd, 2010 at 11:52 AM ^

Scouts, Inc. has him going in the 5th rd to the Colts. However these mock drafts are rarely accurate except for maybe the top few. Mock drafts are to be taken with a grain of salt and know that it's just someones opinion with little evidence supporting it, especially in the later rounds.

I do remember mock drafts a few months back having Warren go to the Texans in the first rd though. I love reading mock drafts but know that theres not much stock in them, except for the obvious ones. i.e. Bradford, Suh, etc.

Magnus

April 22nd, 2010 at 12:06 PM ^

When you think about Warren from an objective stance, it's kind of hard to make an argument for him.

1. He ran slow 40 times.
2. He didn't bench well. Which isn't a huge deal in and of itself, but when you KNOW that's something they're going to test at the Combine, you should be prepared.
3. He doesn't really have a position (FS or CB?).
4. He wasn't a huge playmaker at Michigan when it comes to deflections/interceptions.

jblaze

April 22nd, 2010 at 12:54 PM ^

points 2 & 3 could have been corrected by 1 more year at Michigan and he would have more opportunities for 4.

He may have gotten faster, but that's unlikely.

In that respect, he should have stayed.

Maybe he should have made a "deal" with RR & GERG that he would stay, but wanted to remain at 1 position only?

Magnus

April 22nd, 2010 at 1:20 PM ^

Yes, he would have had more TIME to do those things, but would he have?

He knew he was entering the NFL Draft, but he still couldn't put up 225 lbs. more than 8 times (or whatever it was). He's been in a highly touted S&C program for two years, but he couldn't do better than that?

He wouldn't necessarily have a position after one more year. He'd still be playing corner in 2010 if he had stayed, and if he didn't run the 40 any faster than 4.68, then NFL personnel people would still question his ability to play corner.

And in my opinion, you're either a ball hawk or you're not. You typically don't see 3-year (or 4-year) starters suddenly have a huge jump in interceptions their final year. Warren started nearly every game from 2007-2009, but he had only 1 INT in 2007 (Illinois), I think he had 1 in 2008 (Northwestern), and I think another 2 in 2009 (Indiana, Iowa). I might have missed an interception or two in there, but the point is that he didn't pick off many passes. I wouldn't expect him to suddenly pick off 6-8 passes as a senior in 2010.

UMaD

April 22nd, 2010 at 2:13 PM ^

You can't just assume a guy would make an improvement by coming back. He might get better, but many of the combine outcomes are unlikely to be altered.

The example cited for coming back is the Brandon Graham...but had he turned pro as a junior, once he tested out, he might have been a late 1st rounder anyway.

Graham probably made the right decision, but he took a big risk (injury) and sacrificed a year of pro earnings to play in college instead. Even if he did bump himself up from 2nd rounder to 1st rounder, the contract difference probably isn't enough to justify it financially. But Graham seemed to enjoy himself in the meantime and is probably proud to have a degree as well. Ultimately its a personal decision based on individual priorities...not a dumb/smart one based on draft position.

Speed Kills

April 22nd, 2010 at 2:36 PM ^

More experience, more coaching, more preparation, Michigan degree > (N)ot(F)or(L)ong.

Unless of course, you are a 1st round lock and/or your family is in a dire financial situation. Leon Hall had great work ethic in college and I'm not so sure I can say the same for DW. Hope I'm wrong and he enjoys great success...

"Those who stay will be champions"

UMaD

April 22nd, 2010 at 3:32 PM ^

"More experience, more coaching, more preparation" : you can get the in the NFL too and its probably better there or at least more applicable to an NFL career

Michigan degree: you can get that in the off season or after you retire (and probably get more out of it w/o the time commitment to athletics.

Speed Kills

April 22nd, 2010 at 4:48 PM ^

I was relating it more in terms of preparation *for* the NFL. Increasing your value in the eyes on NFL coaches and executives. The NFL isn't the NBA, teams don't really like "projects". I see what you're saying, just two different perspectives! Go blue.

ijohnb

April 22nd, 2010 at 12:36 PM ^

when Warren declared for the draft at all, especially as decisively as he did. Why? Because he made a splash with a couple of bat downs and a pick as an underclassmen. Unless my memory is going, Warren was a walking injury for the last two years and was a part of some bad secondaries.

He seems like a good enough guy and I liked him as a player, but one great cornerback can a good defense make in college, and Michigan was anything but good on defense. And he too, at times was targeted. I remember a couple of teams going right at Warren, #6 is in a couple of Notre Dame touchdown highlights for Notre Dame this year. Purdue threw right at him the whole game if I remember correctly.

Should have stayed, could have gotten some really good work in this upcoming year with a little better support back there.