So Do We Play TCU No Matter What?
Assume with USC’s loss, OSU is in at four. A Michigan win and a TCU loss likely doesn’t drop TCU behind OSU given their SOS this season. A Michigan loss and a TCU win means they flip flop, as they likely wouldn’t pair OSU against Michigan in the semis (the rematch in the championship is a tv ratings dream). Both teams lose and I think they stay put, with OSU sliding in at four.
Jack Herer is telling my brain that this makes sense, but tell me what I’m missing.
December 3rd, 2022 at 4:26 AM ^
OSU’s regular season loss was way worse than USC’s regular season loss.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
RobM_24---Take your L and move along. Your argument makes no logical sense AT ALL and you even refute your own initial point.
December 3rd, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
USC was the only team of the 4 with a loss in the regular. They got beat by the same 3-loss team twice. They are in a completely different category than the 3 undefeated teams. If USC had been undefeated and lost in the conference championship, they'd be #4. They are being punished for their regular season loss -- which Georgia, Michigan, and TCU don't have.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:37 AM ^
No. You fail to account for the possibility of a GA defeat. Why don't you watch the games before postulating?
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:40 AM ^
Frankly Georgia has almost nothing to play for in SEC championship game and could rest some of their starters:
They are unlikely to fall out of the top 4 even with a loss, and probably no further than to #3.
Michigan is in a similar position but probably not as strong: if Michigan loses and TCU and UGA both win and Ohio State is indeed the fourth team, it would be unlikely for the committee to put OSU above Michigan so Michigan would be at worst, #3, playing...TCU.
The only other possibility is TCU gets blown out, SEC loving committee members move Bama up to #4 (or even #3 if Michigan loses)...
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:49 AM ^
Nobody can fall out, honestly. Bama has a horrible resume. Their key wins are Ole Miss, Miss St, and Arkansas. 2 losses, those wins, and no conference championship appearance. And they'll have 10 wins to TCUs 12 against a comparable SOS. USC has a better resume than Alabama. Hell, Tennessee has a better resume than Alabama but they're getting dinged bc Hooker is done.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:42 AM ^
OSU is 4, no matter what.
Georgia, UM, TCU all lose - they all remain in their current spot. All have more wins than OSU and won't be penalized for playing in a championship while OSU was at home.
Georgia win, UM win, TCU loss - everything stays the same.
Georgia win, UM loss, TCU loss - everything stays the same.
Georgia win, UM loss TCU win - everything is functionally the same but TCU and UM flip 2/3.
Georgia loss, UM win, TCU, win - this is the chaos situation. UM goes to #1 and plays #4 OSU unless the committee invokes some kind of rematch fuckery clause (which is totally possible) and uses that as validation to make it #1 TCU vs #4 OSU, or makes Michigan #1 and drops Georgia to #4 bc they lost to a 3-loss team and OSU only lost to undefeated Michigan. Or any other BS logic they want to use to try to avoid a rematch.
TL;DR - Georgia game is the only one that matters now.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:12 AM ^
This is probably right, and there will most likely be fuckery RobM if Georgia loses and everyone else wins.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:58 AM ^
IMO, there is close to zero chance that Michigan wins and TCU wins and TCU ends up as #1. TCU would need to win by 3+ touchdowns and Michigan would need to win by fewer than 3 pts for that to be even a remote possibility.
December 3rd, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
UM's curb-stomping of OSU makes things very interesting if GA loses or TCU gets stomped...
If TCU gets stomped, I can see a scenario, although unlikely, that OSU moves to #3, and #4 goes to TCU or Bama.
In my mind here are the only two things that matter today:
1) Does Georgia lose?
2) Does TCU get stomped?
If the answer to both of the above questions is "no", then nothing changes. If the answer to either of the above two questions is "yes" then the CFP rankings are definitely going to change, and predicting how they will change is a freakin' mess.
I know for certain no matter how UM plays, UM is locked into the 1-3 slot. Why? Because OSU is now in the CFP and the committee will always keep UM ranked ahead of OSU. UM crushed OSU at OSU. UM 12-1, OSU 11-1, and the top tie-breaker the committee uses to determine rankings is head-to-head between two teams.
#GoBlue
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:42 AM ^
If we are being honest, which of the 4 teams (GA,UM, OSU,TCU) is thought least likely to win it all? TCU. In fact if they lose, I suspect Alabama is in. Commitee has no allegiance to anything but ratings now. With 12 team playoff on the horizon, they won’t care at this point.
So that would make TCU or Bama the 4. I can see the commitee saying, “ok, OSU and Michigan, fight to the death and play for the right to face Georgia, assuming they beat TCU. Or if Alabama sneaks in, they pit Bama vs Georgia and UM vs OSU and have an SEC v Big Ten final guaranteed. Can’t risk an all SEC or all Big Ten championship game. Ratings would suffer.
I don’t trust TCU to win tomorrow, but if they do, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them at 4. If they lose I suspect Alabama becomes the 4…fair or not, and OSU is 3 . Logic doesn’t play a role here. Ratings and matchups are what count.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:55 AM ^
Alabama isn't getting in. Alabama didn't beat anyone good. Their signature wins are against 4 loss Texas and 4 loss Mississippi State.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:01 AM ^
I agree Bama ISNT getting in....If they do it will PROVE how biased towards the SEC the committee is (which they are)...That they are even being talked about is preposterous based on what the committee ALWAYS says "Overall body of work!" which they use to promote SEC teams that would rule Bama OUT for this year or make them look like the Biased agenda driven Hypocrites peopled they are
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:01 AM ^
What really sucks about this whole thing is in a way, Ohio is better off having lost to us.
They basically get a bye this week. While we can win the national championship regardless of what happens against Purdue, there's no advantage to us being in that game. There's also the risk of an injury to ruin our season.
Yeah, by beating Ohio we avoid Georgia in the first round, but if we want to win the championship we're still gonna have to beat them whether it's in the first round or the second round so does it really matter?
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:05 AM ^
I think the committee will want to avoid the rematch in the semifinal, unless TCU looks so bad tomorrow and maybe loses Duggan in the process, and they have to elevate Alabama.
In that case, the lure of Big Ten and SEC semifinals might be too strong.
Last year, they pinned undefeated Cincinnati to #4 despite Georgia's loss in the SEC championship in order to avoid an immediate rematch in the semifinal.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:07 AM ^
Let’s hope 〽️, UGA and TCU win and fOSU slides up to #4 and Ohio State plays UGA & beats and 〽️ beats OSU.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:23 AM ^
USC should still get the nod. Second place in PAC 12 over the third place team in Big 10. Seems lame to penalize USC for playing an extra game while OSU sat at home.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:27 AM ^
I think way too many of you are missing something: THIS AIN’T BPONE’S MICHIGAN TEAM!
Michigan didn’t win a close game vs OSU, nor was it due to lucky bounces, nor was it because of “five big plays”. Michigan whooped OSU, up and down the field in the second half, like they’ve been doing to all of the teams they played this season. Quit being scared of a possible rematch with OSU, whether it’s in the semis or for all of the marbles! And I don’t care who they get back after a month of sitting on their rear ends. They are still a marshmallow soft team and that won’t change, no matter how much they look in the mirror and try to tell themselves different.
Let em play in the semis. Or let OSU somehow pull out the win vs Georgia, then bring em on! They’ll get beat again.
42-27
45-23
48-19* (reserved for January 2023)
December 3rd, 2022 at 3:50 AM ^
This is what i was saying in the USC game thread and people were on me about it. You get two scenarios.
1. OSU get beat by Georgia and ends the season 0-2. Awesome!
2. Osu beats Georgia and you get the team you just destroyed in Columbus in LA. Deep pocket ALUMNs frothing at the mouth filling the stadium.
Come on man this is what you pray for! If we get beat it won't be after a month of me wringing my hands. Come on have some faith!
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:37 AM ^
I don't know what makes sense any more
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:48 AM ^
I mean, you gotta put someone in the 4th spot, but man I just have an issue with teams sneaking into the playoffs that couldn’t even win their damn division.
I understand that sometimes divisions are stacked, but why should you get a shot if you couldn’t do it the first time?
I mean, we sure were not afforded the luxury in 2016 with one loss in OT on a ref job, but OSU loses AT HOME by 22 and miracles their asses in.
Bullshit. Whatever, beat Purdue.
December 3rd, 2022 at 3:19 AM ^
This is what bothers me more than anything about the situation on a personal level, not even counting my issues with The Committe.
The media was already preparing to eliminate Michigan with the blowout loss most were expecting. Even The Big Ten Network had a few people more than hinting at The Game being a playoff in itself but especially so for Michigan.
If Michigan lost by 22 points there is almost no chance they stick above Bama. Very little. Everyone would go on about Michigan's deficiencies and none of the strengths.
OSU? 22 point loss at home? Well, it was just a bad half of football. Actually, just a bad quarter and a half!
It bothers me that even after two straight wins one team is not given the benefit of the doubt that that the other is.
December 3rd, 2022 at 4:41 AM ^
Michigan brought that on themselves by scheduling Hawaii, UConn, and Colorado State. Notre Dame’s not great, but at least OSU tried.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:33 AM ^
Not wrong but that wasn't the main justification I heard. It was said a lot but it was mostly the belief that Michigan could not throw the ball, it was due to how one-dimensional they were. That was brought up as much if not more than the schedule by members of the media ready to drop them like a stone if they lost.
OSU got the benefit that Michigan wouldn't have due to perception and at this point that's bothersome.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:03 AM ^
OK, I hadn’t heard anyone talk about that, but I believe you. It’s the sort of thing people would say. :) The arguments that I’d heard were all around strength of schedule.
I agree, if it’d been about style, I’d be livid. (Then again, I also witnessed Michigan Stadium booing the team during the Illinois game — so I bet there are some adherents of this POV inside the fan base…)
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:04 AM ^
I have my doubts UM would have gotten any additional credit had they beaten, I don't know, UCLA instead of UConn or whatever team replaced them. The committee would have seen UM lose to OSU without their star RB (who likely would have still been an unknown) and dunked then down anyway. If you know what the ending is you want it's pretty easy to retrofit the facts and the committee would have done so.
December 3rd, 2022 at 4:39 AM ^
A Clemson win over ND would have been really nice right now. Not only would it have been another loss for Freeman, but it would have kept Clemson in the running for that last spot instead of opening the door for OSU...
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:54 AM ^
Clemson and LSU losing last week too
December 3rd, 2022 at 4:40 AM ^
Repeat after me:
The committee does not care that OSU already played Michigan. The committee does not care that OSU already played Michigan.
They are not going to try to avoid a rematch. If Michigan earns the #1 seed, they will match them up against #4 OSU. Or, if OSU earns the #3 seed (TCU loss), they will match them up against #2 Michigan.
And, sorry, rice4114, but there is absolutely no upside to playing OSU again. In 2006? I wanted Michigan to get another shot at OSU because I thought they’d beat them. This year, I do not want to afford OSU that opportunity. Sure, Michigan might be a slight favorite in a rematch, but to act as though it’s preordained is ridiculous. I’m not talking BPONE; I’m talking giving OSU some credit for being a very good football team and probably game-planning a little differently the second time.
The downside — potentially having Michigan’s season ended by OSU, wiping out the feelings from last Saturday’s game — is far, far worse than any upside of beating them twice.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:42 AM ^
All of this is correct. People keep talking about them avoiding a rematch and they absolutely won't. I don't think they'll go out of their way to make it happen but they won't avoid it. This isn't a case of them having just played (like UGA-BAMA in a SEC CG). It will have been two season weeks and a month ago overall.
If it works out that they meet in the most likely rankings, they'll have them play.
Further, the risk of losing what you've gained is much greater the thrill or odds of beating them twice. At a time when Michigan has finally grabbed this rivalry back, to have to give that up or beat them again is a major demand. It's a demand no other winner of The Game has ever been burdened with and that bothers me. It's not fear or bpone or the like, it's a fundamental issue of it feeling wrong and feeling like something that wouldn't happen if the roles were reversed.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:39 AM ^
I completely disagree. UM could lose to OSU in the playoff and then what? It would suck watching them celebrate (if OSU wins it all) but that doesn’t take away from doubling them up in Columbus. Besides, it ensures Day remains at OSU which I would personally want for the next 5 years plus. If UM wins again it will remove the entire soul of that team and fanbase because every last neutral will conclude that UM officially owns them in a way that OSU has never done (lose twice? Including AT HOME?). Like Red Sox in 04, can’t think of a better way to slay that beast.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:38 AM ^
Know who e;se doesnt care?????? Shingles
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:35 AM ^
+1,000,000
Those commercials are awesome!
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
I look at it as a very high risk, high reward situation.
Imagine I give you $450,000 and offer you a coin flip. Heads you get $1,000,000, tails you get nothing. Or you can walk away now. Sure, the odds say flip the coin for the higher expected payout, but are you really gonna do that?
The Game Part 2 is exactly this scenario. Sure, we're probably a slight favorite and sure winning again would feel even better than last week. But the risk is far too high. If we beat TCU and then beat Georgia to win the title, NOBODY is going to cry because we didn't get to beat Ohio twice.
December 3rd, 2022 at 5:19 AM ^
If TCU loses, I could easily see Bama coming in at 3. I called it after Tuesday and stand by it. The committee wants an Sec showing and would hope that Georgia and Bama would dispose of the big 10s best.
December 3rd, 2022 at 10:31 AM ^
Basically no chance. Right now Vegas has the odds of Alabama getting in at about the same odds that the first score of the Super Bowl is a safety.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:18 AM ^
Unless TCU gets blown out, they’re probably locked in at the three seed, but I hope they do not lose. I really do not want to spend the next the next month wringing my hands over having to face OSU in the semifinals.
But if TCU does get blown out, it very possibly opens the door for Bama to back its way in and then we’re going to get an absolute shit show for the CFP. At that point, OSU is probably the three seed by default, Bama is the four seed, and Michigan could be in line for either it’s best postseason trip in its entire history. Or…..potentially the worst, depending on how the semifinals play out.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:38 AM ^
Beat Purdue
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:52 AM ^
Not so fast my Friend...A Georgia upset loss means we vault to No 1 and could possibly have to play OSU AGAIN.. Playing in Atlanta down I75 would be much more advantageous than being shipped out West...
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:55 AM ^
If TCU loses I believe we play OSU.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:57 AM ^
Yeah, it's pretty much set AFAIK. I guess if TCU and UM and win and Georgia loses they all bump up a spot but that seems unlikely.
This is sort of the shitty part about championship games. USC loses basically an exhibition game that was created for ratings and so they're out of the playoffs while a team who got blown out in their last game gets to move on specifically because they didn't play in a championship game. It's sort of dumb all around and even if the tables were turned and UM has been 5th it would still be dumb. Conference titles should be for seeding purposes and not so a team can slide ass backwards into a spot because they couldn't get it done during the regular season.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:58 AM ^
It’s not the way the committee thinks about it, but, much as bama again = yuck, I would prefer not to see anyone in CFP who’s already been beaten by other teams in the CFP. What kind of champion is 1-1 against the other contenders? It’s weak. By my book, UGa, UM, and TCU are in by virtue of record. That means the best 1 or 2 loss who haven’t already been defeated by those 3 should be 4th team. The idea was to settle by playing games what champion caliber team had the most champion season. 1-1 vs other champion caliber is not that. And that, sadly but not purely sadly, means bama in osu out.
By the way, I went to the 1v2 Game of the Century in Columbus in 2006, and that was a titanic game that in game quality anyone would want to see again, but the argument then and if it held then it should hold now too was you had your chance and were already beaten on the field by a team ranked ahead of you so you’re out.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:04 AM ^
But damnit USC! Why your defense so atrocious?
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:08 AM ^
I mean, last year's champ was 1-1 in their two games against Alabama. The committee doesn't care about rematches.
This is also a good reason to have an expanded playoffs. Teams can be moved around a bit so you have fresh matchups instead of what is clearly going to happen here where they don't really have a "fresh" matchup unless everything stays chalk.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:13 AM ^
I am not so sure the committee votes OSU in if TCU wins today. I can see Alabama jumping them. All year they we’re talking two SEC teams
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:06 AM ^
A potential rematch where OSU knows we dont have corum, AND Jaxon Smith-Njigba is back shift things significantly.
Its the ultimate high risk / high reward scenario. I prefer a guaranteed 350 more days of knowing we won.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:14 AM ^
Last year after spanking Iowa in the BIG championship and having #3 Bama upset Georgia in the SEC, it SHOULD have been Michigan, Bama, Georgia, Cincinnati. The committee chose Bama #1 clearly to avoid an SEC rematch. I don’t doubt the possibility of the BIG not getting the same favor as the SEC but would think the committee would drool over the possibility of an OSU Michigan final.
And USC should still be number 4. They won’t of course. But they looked like the better team until Williams got hurt. So they get penalized twice by having to play an extra game and probably losing the game when the best player in CF gets hurt in the first half. It’s a pretty screwed up system
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:58 AM ^
A team that plays defense like SC has no business in the playoffs… that was embarrassing pure and simple
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:15 AM ^
December 3rd, 2022 at 10:20 AM ^
True-and they avoided having to play Washington and Oregon, 2 of the best 4 teams in the conference. They were overrated because of the glitz and glamour of USC.