Rankings Roundup after Week 8: AP, Coaches, SP+
Sorry I’m a couple of days behind with this. Here are the numbers after week 8.
COMPARING AP, COACHES, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)
Say hello to undefeated James Madison in the top 25. That’s right. James Madison who, in their first season of FBS competition last year, posted an 8-3 record and… were ineligible from the bowl season due to some stupid NCAA rule. That’s ok, though. They are currently 7-0 with a transitive win over North Carolina (via Virginia). Certainly they’ll get a chance at a quality bowl this year… Holy shit, NCAA. They’re ineligible again? And you actually shot down an appeal from the school to let these kids play in a bowl game?*
I’ve heard people say that the NCAA is moving away from actions that collectively punish the players such as post-season bans, etc.. If that’s the case, then whatever James Madison did must’ve been really serious.
(*From the article: “A person involved with the denial vote told The Athletic in the spring that it was a difficult decision but the NCAA boards simply did not want to create a precedent — even though many believe the rule is antiquated.” Sound familiar?)
SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)
Focusing on the SP+ …
If you haven’t been keeping track, that’s 5 weeks in a row that Michigan has been #1 in SP+.
And now, if anyone is wondering about good matchups according to SP+ next week:
- #5 Oregon @ #24 Utah
- #16 Tennessee @ #25 Kentucky
That’s all for top 25 SP+ matchups.
Meanwhile, in the B1G…
Does anyone notice a pattern?
Good shit, Iowa!
TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 8
Michigan is really starting to pull away from the pack. According to SP+, they would currently be a 4+ point favorite over Georgia on a neutral field.
SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Standard interpretation applies:
- Top-right: Good at offense and defense
- Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
- Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
- Bottom-left: Not so good at football
Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean that category. For example, Michigan is 1.5 standard deviations above the mean from the average SP+ offense, and 2.1 standard deviations below the mean (this is good) from the average SP+ defense.
Michigan and Georgia are now the only two teams that are more than 1 standard deviation from the mean (in the right direction) on both offense and defense, though Texas is very close.
In terms of future opponents, OSU’s offensive SP+ scores have taken a hit. And while PSU’s defense remains elite, they are basically now merely a slightly above average offense according to SP+.
SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference. Notre Dame is now excluded from the ACC. Thanks for the comments/suggestions on this.
And since people like to see it, here’s the graph after conference realignment.
Thanks for reading.
Go Blue!
October 25th, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
Good lord that offense/defense split for USC.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:01 AM ^
Iowa is hilarious in reverse. Iowa fans are calling for Brian Ferentz's head and rightfully so.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^
We deserve to see USC vs Iowa.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
USC offense vs Iowa defense- An unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
Iowa offense vs USC defense - An immovable force meets air, while heading downhill with the wind at their back.
One is must see cfb at its finest, the other is clawing out your eyeballs so you don’t have to watch it anymore. All in the same game.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
Iowa defense vs USC offense:
Iowa offense vs USC defense:
Surprised that there was no mention of Iowa being the only team that is more than 2 standard deviations away from the mean for Defense (in the good way) and for Offense (in the bad way).
October 25th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
I believe he's mentioned it before.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
Honestly, I'm afraid of the galactic consequences of such an event. It's kind of like bringing matter and anti-matter together and I think the universe might just collapse in on itself.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
Why? Iowa this year is the same Iowa of the past 20 years, and they were just fine with that then. I mean unless he has freshmen giving seniors reach around's in the shower like Fitzgerald.
October 25th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
Early 2000 Iowa had some great teams with good offenses based on strong running behind a good O-line and good tight ends. They have dropped significantly in 20 years. They were never an explosive offense, but had some good Qbs and O-lines to match their D.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:02 AM ^
Mirror Universe Iowa.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
And to make matters worse for them, their offense hasn't looked all that great once they started playing actual defenses the last two weeks.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
That's only half the split Iowa has going
October 25th, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
It's really incredible. If Kirk Ferentz could just get out of his own paternal way and hire a real OC, that team could easily be top 10. The talent on the offensive side isn't great, but just competent and coherent playcalling and scheme probably gets them into the top 25 of SP+ offense, in which case they are top 10 overall.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:41 AM ^
Seriously, Iowa typically has the tight end and OL talent to run a lite version of what Michigan did to MSU last weekend.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:07 AM ^
Ryan Day was right! They are tough and they have the Black Diamond to prove it!
October 25th, 2023 at 9:21 AM ^
The hype vs reality of Colorado was always very interesting. Their offense is average and defense below.
I think the hype has somewhat subsided but amongst their peers, they certainly draw more eyeballs than vandy, nw, bc, etc. prime has done quite a job of generating interest despite on field results.
October 25th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
It's amazing to watch Iowa waste elite DST with Kirk letting his kid ruin the offense. Iowa should never lose a game in the west. Honestly I think they should just run some type of option, be mediocre, and let their defense largely carry them to 10+ win season every year
October 25th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
FEI is also out:
- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Florida State
- Penn State
- Washington
- LSU
- Georgia
- Texas
The gaps are very big at the top: the gap between #1 and #2 is the same as the gap between #2 and #11 Alabama; the gap between #1 and #3 is the same as the gap between #3 and #23 Clemson.
Offensive FEI:
- LSU
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Washington
- Oklahoma
- Georgia
- USC
- Ohio State
- Oregon State
- Kansas State
Defensive FEI:
- Iowa
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Alabama
- Utah
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Texas
- Florida State
- Notre Dame
October 25th, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
I'm curious about FEI but don't know enough about it. Do the efficiency numbers have any substantive interpretation like SP+ does?
October 25th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
It's drive-based; Fremeau has a rather famous chart of the value of each spot on the field, each drive of a game is scored by either points scored on the drive or the relative gain in value from the field position attained.
Charting stops when the game is no longer competitive; I've forgotten the precise rule he uses and the details were lost with the death of the old footballoutsiders website. His ratings and data are still available at bcftoys but the descriptive pages are gone.
And of course it's all opponent-adjusted. Unadjusted, Michigan's #1 in all categories by a very, very wide margin.
The ratings are the points per possession a given team is better than the average FBS team. Michigan's ratings are 1.86 on offense and 1.27 on defense. For reference sake the teams closest to average are Kentucky's offense and--I didn't want to believe this either but it is what it is--USC's defense. To be fair, this is all FBS and "average" is a pretty poor P5 team like Illinois or Pittsburgh. The worst team on our schedule isn't in the bottom 25.
October 25th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
Thanks for that explanation. I'm going to start keeping an eye on that as well.
October 25th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
Opponent adjusted ratings are truly the only ones worth their salt.
October 25th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
Link to FEI for those curious
Also looked at ESPN's FPI (football power index) which combines efficiency and resume. Based on Efficiency, Michigan is far and away #1 overall. Add in resume and Michigan drops to #2 behind osu.
Overall efficiency:
- Michigan
- ohio state
- FSU
- PSU
- Oregon
- Oklahoma
- Washington
- Texas
- Oregon State
- notre dame
The gap between 1 and 2 is the same as the gap between 2 and 12 UGA.
Offensive efficiency:
- LSU
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Washington
- Oregon State
- Oklahoma
- USC
- UGA
- Ole Miss
- FSU
Defensive efficiency:
- PSU
- Michigan
- ohio state
- UCLA
- Iowa
- Utah
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Texas
- Tennessee
Strength of resume:
- ohio state
- FSU
- Oklahoma
- Washington
- Alabama
- Texas
- Ole Miss
- UGA
- Michigan
- Utah
Interestingly, they have the current SOS at 110, but remaining SOS at #2 - which checks out since our schedule is so back-heavy.
Overall FPI:
- ohio state
- Michigan
- PSU
- Alabama
- Oklahoma
- FSU
- Texas
- UGA
- LSU
- Oregon
Only real surprise here for me is that Washington fell outside the top 10 - sitting at #12 behind #11 notre dame.
Note that Michigan is the only team that features in the top 10 in every category measured by FPI. This is a damn good team.
October 25th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
We have the top rated offense in the conference? Hail yeah!
October 25th, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
AND the top rated defense.
October 25th, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^
This is So appreciated and my favorite poster contribution to the board. +1Million MG-Points to you good person!
Toughness marker makes me smile every week - the moniker needs to be changed from black diamond to a tiny little face of Ryan Day please.
October 25th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
Thanks!
Oh man, that would be perfect. My next project is to make that happen,
October 25th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
So FSU and Oklahoma are significantly over-ranked, while Oregon and Alabama are significantly under-ranked.
That does indeed pass the eye test.
October 25th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
SP+ is starting to scare me.
Assuming a 3-point home field advantage, Michigan's toughest remaining game is at PSU... where Michigan is a 7.2 point favorite. Versus OSU, Michigan is <deep breath> a 9.6 point favorite. Now, anything can happen, that's why they play the games, etc. But SP+ is reinforcing what our eyes are telling us: yes, Michigan hasn't played anybody particularly impressive, but it's impressive on its own to go through 8 weeks of a season where your closest game is a 24-point win.
After the big uptick from slaughtering MSU, Michigan has now pipped back ahead of where they were in the preseason SP+ rankings (28.7 vs 28.6), while the rest of the top teams have nose-dived. By comparison, Michigan was a 2.4 point preseason favorite vs PSU and a 2.6 point preseason favorite vs OSU.
October 25th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
Just gotta bracket Harrison Jr. and spy Stover and the rest should work out.
October 25th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
Duplicate please delete.
October 25th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
LSU's offense and PSU's defense should divorce their spouses and marry each other.
October 25th, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
This isn't about signalgate so it's technically OT, right?
October 26th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
When was the last time OSU had an offense that is not elite? I know this is a tall task and honestly may not even completely possible, but slow down Harrison and their offense becomes below average. I do believe their defense is elite after watching their games against both ND and PSU, but their offense has a huge question mark on it.